2004 Missouri gubernatorial election
{{Short description|none}}
{{for|related races|2004 United States gubernatorial elections}}
{{Use American English|date=January 2025}}
{{Use mdy dates|date=September 2023}}
{{Infobox election
| election_name = 2004 Missouri gubernatorial election
| country = Missouri
| type = presidential
| ongoing = no
| previous_election = 2000 Missouri gubernatorial election
| previous_year = 2000
| next_election = 2008 Missouri gubernatorial election
| next_year = 2008
| election_date = November 2, 2004
| image_size = x150px
| image1 = File:Mattblunt3 (cropped).jpg
| nominee1 = Matt Blunt
| party1 = Republican Party (United States)
| popular_vote1 = 1,382,419
| percentage1 = 50.83%
| image2 = File:Claire McCaskill 2007.jpg
| nominee2 = Claire McCaskill
| party2 = Democratic Party (United States)
| popular_vote2 = 1,301,442
| percentage2 = 47.85%
| map_image = 2004 Missouri gubernatorial election results by county.svg
| map_size = 275px
| map_caption = County results
Blunt: {{legend0|#e27f7f|50–60%}} {{legend0|#d75d5d|60–70%}} {{legend0|#d72f30|70–80%}}
McCaskill: {{legend0|#a5b0ff|40–50%}} {{legend0|#7996e2|50–60%}} {{legend0|#6674de|60–70%}} {{legend0|#584cde|70–80%}}
| title = Governor
| before_election = Bob Holden
| before_party = Democratic Party (United States)
| after_election = Matt Blunt
| after_party = Republican Party (United States)
}}
{{ElectionsMO}}
The 2004 Missouri gubernatorial election was held on November 2, 2004, for the post of Governor of Missouri. The Republican nominee, Missouri Secretary of State Matt Blunt, defeated Democratic state auditor Claire McCaskill. This gave the Republican Party control of both the governorship and the Missouri General Assembly for the first time in 80 years.{{cite news | url = https://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A24024-2004Nov3?language=printer | title = The Midwest | access-date = 2008-02-24 | date = 2004-11-04 | newspaper = The Washington Post }}{{Dead link|date=September 2022 |bot=InternetArchiveBot |fix-attempted=yes }}{{Dead link|date=August 2021 |bot=InternetArchiveBot |fix-attempted=yes }}
McCaskill had earlier defeated incumbent governor Bob Holden in the Democratic primary. This was the first time a sitting governor of Missouri had been defeated in a primary and the first time any United States governor had lost in a primary since the 1994 elections.{{cite news| url = https://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/vote2004/2004-11-03-mo-gov-blunt_x.htm | title = Blunt wins Missouri governor's race | access-date = 2008-02-24 | date = 2004-11-03| work=USA Today}}
Coincidentally, McCaskill's mother Betty Anne had previously been defeated by Blunt's grandfather, Leroy Blunt, in a 1978 General Assembly election. Blunt's father Roy Blunt was a Congressman and served with McCaskill in the U.S. Senate from 2011 to 2019.
Republican primary
=Campaign=
Missouri Secretary of State Matt Blunt faced only token opposition in the Republican primary, easily defeating several lesser known opponents.
=Results=
{{Election box begin no change
| title = Republican primary results{{cite web |url=http://www.sos.mo.gov/enrweb/statewideresults.asp?arc=1&eid=116 |title=Statewide Races |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110514004429/http://www.sos.mo.gov/enrweb/statewideresults.asp?eid=116&arc=1 |archive-date=2011-05-14}}
}}
{{Election box winning candidate with party link no change
| candidate = Matt Blunt
| party = Republican Party (United States)
| votes = 534,393
| percentage = 68.28
}}
{{Election box candidate with party link no change
| candidate = Karen Skelton-Memhardt
| party = Republican Party (United States)
| votes = 126,089
| percentage = 20.85
}}
{{Election box candidate with party link no change
| candidate = Jen Sievers
| party = Republican Party (United States)
| votes = 18,733
| percentage = 3.10
}}
{{Election box candidate with party link no change
| candidate = Jeff Killian
| party = Republican Party (United States)
| votes = 10,423
| percentage = 1.72
}}
{{Election box candidate with party link no change
| candidate = Roy W. Lang
| party = Republican Party (United States)
| votes = 8,750
| percentage = 1.45
}}
{{Election box candidate with party link no change
| candidate = Martin Lindstedt
| party = Republican Party (United States)
| votes = 6,369
| percentage = 1.05
}}
{{Election box total no change
| votes = 604,757
| percentage= 100
}}
{{Election box end}}
Democratic primary
=Campaign=
Bob Holden had a difficult term as Missouri governor, starting at his inauguration on January 8, 2001, which cost $1 million, and which he struggled to pay for. The state economy suffered a downturn forcing him to make budget cuts and the Republican party gained control of the State Senate for the first time in 50 years.{{cite news| url = https://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/state/missouri/2004-08-04-mo-primary_x.htm | title = After ousting embattled Mo. governor in Dem. primary, state auditor reaches out to him | access-date = 2008-02-25 | date = 2004-08-04| work=USA Today}} Holden was nicknamed by his opponents as "One Term Bob".{{cite web| url = https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna5592789 | title = Missouri voters approve gay marriage ban | access-date = 2008-02-25 | date = 2004-08-04| work=NBC News}}
Holden announced that he would run for re-election in March 2003, blaming the Republican party for many of the problems during his term as governor.{{cite web|url=http://www.hannibal.net/stories/031003/hap_0310030020.shtml |title=Holden to seek re-election |access-date=2008-02-25 |date=2003-03-10 |publisher=The Hannibal Courier-Post |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20050223114509/http://www.hannibal.net/stories/031003/hap_0310030020.shtml |archive-date=February 23, 2005 }} However, Holden was challenged by State Auditor Claire McCaskill for the Democratic nomination, who said that she would be a stronger candidate in the General election against Blunt.
McCaskill attacked Holden for delays in education funding, the state's deteriorating roads and increases in tuition fees at Missouri's universities. Holden sought to defend his term in office and attacked McCaskill for the people she accepted campaign contributions from. McCaskill picked up most newspaper endorsements during the primary and won the primary on August 3 against Holden.{{cite news| url = https://www.nytimes.com/cq/2004/08/04/news-1283573.html | title = Missouri Governor Ousted in Primary | access-date = 2008-02-25 | date = 2004-08-04| work=The New York Times | first=Gregory L. | last=Giroux}}
=Results=
{{Election box begin no change
| title = Democratic primary results
}}
{{Election box winning candidate with party link no change
| candidate = Claire McCaskill
| party = Democratic Party (United States)
| votes = 437,780
| percentage = 51.64
}}
{{Election box candidate with party link no change
| candidate = Bob Holden (incumbent)
| party = Democratic Party (United States)
| votes = 383,734
| percentage = 45.27
}}
{{Election box candidate with party link no change
| candidate = Jim LePage
| party = Democratic Party (United States)
| votes = 16,761
| percentage = 1.98
}}
{{Election box candidate with party link no change
| candidate = Jeffery A. Emrick
| party = Democratic Party (United States)
| votes = 9,473
| percentage = 1.12
}}
{{Election box total no change
| votes = 847,748
| percentage= 100
}}
{{Election box end}}
General election
=Campaign=
After the primaries finished Holden and McCaskill met to unite the Democratic party for the general election for what was always seen as being a close race against Blunt.{{cite web | url = http://www.kmbc.com/politics/3616239/detail.html | title = Democrats Mend Fences; Blunt Rallies GOP Supporters | access-date = 2008-02-25 | date = 2004-08-04 | work = The New York Times | url-status = dead | archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20110719003036/http://www.kmbc.com/politics/3616239/detail.html | archive-date = 2011-07-19 }}{{cite web | url = http://www.kmbc.com/politics/3558083/detail.html | title = Poll Shows Tight Primary Race For Mo. Governor | access-date = 2008-02-25 | date = 2004-07-20 | work = KMBC-TV | url-status = dead | archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20110719003058/http://www.kmbc.com/politics/3558083/detail.html | archive-date = 2011-07-19 }}
The first of two debates between Blunt and McCaskill was held on 18 October where McCaskill compared her experience to Blunt's inexperience; while Blunt said that McCaskill would not support the Marriage protection amendment to the State Constitution.{{cite web|url=http://www.kmbc.com/politics/3829288/detail.html |title=Blunt, McCaskill Debate In KC |access-date=2008-02-25 |date=2004-10-18 |work=KMBC-TV |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110719003117/http://www.kmbc.com/politics/3829288/detail.html |archive-date=2011-07-19 }} In the two debates Blunt described himself as bringing change to Missouri and was assisted by President George W. Bush during the campaign. McCaskill kept her distance from Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry due to Bush's lead in Missouri.{{cite news| url = https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A57459-2004Oct23.html | title = Age May Be Trump Card in Governor's Race | access-date = 2008-02-25 | date = 2004-10-24| newspaper=The Washington Post | first=Peter | last=Slevin}}
In the end Blunt narrowly defeated McCaskill with surveys showing his conservative stance on social issues and the strong showing of President Bush in Missouri helped him to victory.{{cite news| url = https://www.nytimes.com/2004/11/04/politics/campaign/04sbmissouri.html?pagewanted=print&position= | title = Missouri | access-date = 2008-02-25 | date = 2004-11-04| work=The New York Times}} Blunt obtained strong leads in the rural parts of the state, as well as the large cities of southwest Missouri, Springfield and Joplin, which was sufficient to overcome McCaskill's leads in St. Louis and Jackson County. Blunt thus became Missouri's second youngest governor.
= Predictions =
| class="wikitable" style="text-align:center" |
| Source
! Ranking ! As of |
|---|
| align=left | Sabato's Crystal Ball{{cite web | title=The Final Predictions | url=https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/ljs2004110101/ | website=Sabato's Crystal Ball | access-date=May 2, 2021}}
| {{USRaceRating|Lean|R|Flip}} | November 1, 2004 |
=Polling=
| class="wikitable" style="font-size:90%" |
| valign=bottom
! Poll source ! Date(s) ! Sample ! Margin ! style="width:100px;"| Claire ! style="width:100px;"| Matt ! Other / |
| SurveyUSA[https://www.surveyusa.com/2004Elec.html SurveyUSA]
| align=center| October 29–31, 2004 | align=center| 689 (LV) | align=center| ± 3.8% | align=center| 47% | align=center| 47% | align=center| 5% |
=Results=
{{Election box begin | title=Missouri gubernatorial election, 2004{{cite web |url=http://www.sos.mo.gov/enrweb/statewideresults.asp?arc=1&eid=14 |title=Statewide Races |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110514004031/http://www.sos.mo.gov/enrweb/statewideresults.asp?eid=14&arc=1 |archive-date=2011-05-14}}}}
{{Election box winning candidate with party link|
|party = Republican Party (United States)
|candidate = Matt Blunt
|votes = 1,382,419
|percentage = 50.83%
|change = +2.63%
}}
{{Election box candidate with party link|
|party = Democratic Party (United States)
|candidate = Claire McCaskill
|votes = 1,301,442
|percentage = 47.85%
|change = -1.27%
}}
{{Election box candidate with party link|
|party = Libertarian Party (United States)
|candidate = John Swenson
|votes = 24,378
|percentage = 0.90%
|change = +0.42%
}}
{{Election box candidate with party link|
|party = Constitution Party (United States)
|candidate = Robert Wells
|votes = 11,299
|percentage = 0.42%
|change = +0.28%
}}
{{Election box majority|
|votes = 80,977
|percentage = 2.98%
|change = +2.06%
}}
{{Election box turnout|
|votes = 2,719,538
|percentage = 64.8
|change = +4.0
}}
{{Election box gain with party link|
|winner = Republican Party (United States)
|loser = Democratic Party (United States)
|swing =
}}
{{Election box end}}
==Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic==
- Platte (largest city: Kansas City)
==Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican==
- Audrain (Largest city: Mexico)
- Clark (Largest city: Kahoka)
- Monroe (Largest city: Monroe City)
- Gentry (Largest city: Albany)
- Oregon (Largest city: Thayer)
- Buchanan (Largest city: St. Joseph)
- St. Francois (Largest city: Farmington)
- Reynolds (Largest city: Ellington)
- Washington (Largest city: Potosi)
- Iron (largest city: Ironton)
- Shannon (Largest city: Winona)
- Bates (Largest city: Butler)
- Chariton (Largest city: Salisbury)
- Dunklin (Largest city: Kennett)
- Nodaway (Largest city: Maryville)
- Pike (Largest city: Bowling Green)
- Howard (Largest city: Fayette)
- Henry (Largest city: Clinton)
- Hickory (Largest city: Hermitage)
- Ralls (Largest city: Hannibal)
- Randolph (Largest city: Moberly)
- Linn (Largest city: Brookfield)
- Callaway (Largest city: Fulton)
Notes
{{notelist}}
References
{{reflist|30em}}
External links
Campaign websites (Archived)
- [https://web.archive.org/web/20041030220809/https://www.mattblunt.com/ Matt Blunt]
- [https://web.archive.org/web/20041030220701/http://www.claireonline.com/ Claire McCaskill]
See also
{{Missouri elections}}
{{United States general elections, 2004}}