2004 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania
{{Short description|none}}
{{Use mdy dates|date=September 2023}}
{{Infobox election
| election_name = 2004 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania
| country = Pennsylvania
| type = presidential
| ongoing = no
| previous_election = 1998 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania
| previous_year = 1998
| next_election = 2010 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania
| next_year = 2010
| election_date = November 2, 2004
| image_size = x150px
| image1 = Arlen Specter, official Senate photo portrait.jpg
| nominee1 = Arlen Specter
| party1 = Republican Party (United States)
| popular_vote1 = 2,925,080
| percentage1 = 52.62%
| image2 = Joe Hoeffel portrait.jpg
| nominee2 = Joe Hoeffel
| party2 = Democratic Party (United States)
| popular_vote2 = 2,334,126
| percentage2 = 41.99%
| map_image = 2004 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania results map by county.svg
| map_size = 260px
| map_caption = County results
Specter: {{legend0|#ffb2b2|40–50%}} {{legend0|#e27f7f|50–60%}} {{legend0|#d75d5d|60–70%}} {{legend0|#d72f30|70–80%}}
Hoeffel: {{legend0|#a5b0ff|40–50%}} {{legend0|#3933e5|70–80%}}
| title = U.S. Senator
| before_election = Arlen Specter
| before_party = Republican Party (United States)
| after_election = Arlen Specter
| after_party = Republican Party (United States)
}}
{{ElectionsPA}}
The 2004 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania was held on November 2, 2004. Incumbent Republican Senator Arlen Specter won re-election to a fifth term. As of {{CURRENTYEAR}}, this is the last time a Republican statewide candidate won Montgomery and Delaware Counties and won more than 25% of the vote in Philadelphia. Specter later lost renomination in 2010 as a Democrat, having joined the party in April 2009. Specter’s party switch marked the first time since 1947 that Democrats held both of Pennsylvania’s U.S. Senate seats.
Democratic primary
= Campaign =
Democrats had difficulty recruiting top tier candidates against the popular Specter. Among the Democrats to decline to run for the nomination were Treasurer (and former Republican) Barbara Hafer, Public Utilities Commissioner John Hanger, real estate mogul Howard Hanna, State Representative (and also former Republican) John Lawless, and State Senator (and future Congresswoman) Allyson Schwartz.{{Cite web| title = Democratic Short List '04| work = PoliticsPA| publisher = The Publius Group | year = 2003| archive-url =https://web.archive.org/web/20030802092142/http://www.politicspa.com/features/shortlist04.htm| url = http://www.politicspa.com/features/shortlist04.htm | archive-date=August 2, 2003}}
Congressman Hoeffel ended up running unopposed for the Democratic nomination. Software businessman Charlie Crystle was considered a strong possible candidate, but he dropped out before the election.{{Cite news|last=Neri|first=Al|author-link=Albert J. Neri|date=August 2003|title=District historically Republican|newspaper=The Insider|url=http://www.insiderpa.com/archive/insider8-2003b.htm|url-status=dead|access-date=2009-10-25|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20071013105059/http://www.insiderpa.com/archive/insider8-2003b.htm|archive-date=2007-10-13}}
= Results =
{{Election box begin no change
| title = Democratic Party primary for Pennsylvania Senate Election}}
{{Election box winning candidate with party link no change
| party = Democratic Party (United States)
| candidate = Joe Hoeffel
| votes = 595,816
| percentage = 100.00%
| change =
}}
{{Election box end}}
Republican primary
= Campaign =
Specter faced a primary challenge from Representative Pat Toomey. Despite the state Republican Party's strong history of embracing a moderate philosophy, the influence of conservatism among rank-and-file members had been steadily growing for decades; because of his liberal social views, Specter was often considered to be a "Republican in Name Only" by the right.{{Cite book|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=1J_9q-lIWRkC&q=klink&pg=PA112|title=Pennsylvania Elections: Statewide Contests from 1950-2004|isbn=9780761832799|last1=Kennedy|first1=John J.|year=2006}} Although Specter had a huge fundraising advantage, Toomey was aided by $2 million of advertising from the Club for Growth, a conservative political action committee that focuses on fiscal issues and targets moderate Republican incumbents. Toomey criticized Specter as a spendthrift on economic policy and as out of touch with his own party on social issues. Although Toomey had difficulty with name recognition early in the campaign, he built huge momentum over the final weeks preceding the primary, and Specter appeared to have transitioned from having a comfortable lead to being behind his challenger.{{Cite book|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=1J_9q-lIWRkC&q=klink&pg=PA112|title=Pennsylvania Elections: Statewide Contests from 1950-2004|isbn=9780761832799|last1=Kennedy|first1=John J.|year=2006}}
Specter received a huge boost from the vocal support of President George W. Bush; most of the state's Republican establishment also closed ranks behind Specter. This included Pennsylvania's other U.S. Senator, Rick Santorum, who was noted for his social conservative views. Many Republicans at the state and national level feared that if Toomey beat Specter, he wouldn't be able to defend the seat against his Democratic opponent.[https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna4847842 Sen. Specter ekes out narrow win in Pa. primary - Politics - nbcnews.com]
= Polling =
| class="wikitable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;" |
| style="vertical-align:bottom"
! Poll source ! Date(s) ! Margin ! style="width:100px;"| Arlen ! style="width:100px;"| Pat ! Undecided |
| style="text-align:left;"|SurveyUSA[https://web.archive.org/web/20040919204854/http://surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/PA040426gopsenprimary.pdf SurveyUSA]
|April 23–25, 2004 |478 (LV) |± 4.6% |48% |48% |4% |
| style="text-align:left;"|Quinnipiac University[https://poll.qu.edu/Poll-Release-Legacy?releaseid=305 Quinnipiac University]
|April 20–24, 2004 |617 (LV) |± 4% |{{party shading/Republican}}|48% |42% |10% |
| style="text-align:left;"|the polling company, inc. (R)[https://www.nationalreview.com/2004/04/toomeys-chance-nro-primary-document/ the polling company, inc. (R)]
|April 22–23, 2004 |500 (LV) |± 4.5% |{{party shading/Republican}}|46% |39% |15% |
| rowspan=2 style="text-align:left;"|Franklin & Marshall College[https://web.archive.org/web/20120426113754/https://edisk.fandm.edu/FLI/keystone/pdf/keyapr04_1.pdf Franklin & Marshall College]
|rowspan=2|April 13–20, 2004 |401 (RV) |± 4.8% |{{party shading/Republican}}|50% |26% |24% |
| 126 (LV)
|± 8.7% |{{party shading/Republican}}|46% |40% |14% |
| style="text-align:left;"|SurveyUSA[https://www.newspapers.com/clip/109360742/pittsburgh-post-gazette/ SurveyUSA]
|April 17–19, 2004 |479 (LV) |± 4.6% |{{party shading/Republican}}|50% |44% |6% |
| style="text-align:left;"|Quinnipiac University[https://poll.qu.edu/Poll-Release-Legacy?releaseid=302 Quinnipiac University]
|April 12–18, 2004 |431 (LV) |± 4.7% |{{party shading/Republican}}|49% |44% |7% |
| style="text-align:left;"|SurveyUSA[https://web.archive.org/web/20040414044848/http://www.surveyusa.com:80/currentelectionpolls.html SurveyUSA]
|April 3–5, 2004 |490 (LV) |± 4.5% |{{party shading/Republican}}|46% |40% |14% |
| style="text-align:left;"|Quinnipiac University[https://poll.qu.edu/Poll-Release-Legacy?releaseid=301 Quinnipiac University]
|Mar 30–Apr 5, 2004 |615 (LV) |± 4% |{{party shading/Republican}}|52% |37% |11% |
| rowspan=2 style="text-align:left;"|Franklin & Marshall College[https://web.archive.org/web/20120503054246/https://edisk.fandm.edu/FLI/keystone/pdf/keymar04_1.pdf Franklin & Marshall College]
|rowspan=2|March 25–29, 2004 |258 (RV) |± 6% |{{party shading/Republican}}|50% |28% |22% |
| 193 (LV)
|± 7% |{{party shading/Republican}}|46% |33% |21% |
| style="text-align:left;"|SurveyUSA[https://web.archive.org/web/20040427095806/http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/PA040316gopsenprimary.pdf SurveyUSA]
|March 13–15, 2004 |399 (LV) |± 5% |{{party shading/Republican}}|47% |38% |15% |
| style="text-align:left;"|the polling company, inc. (R)[https://www.newspapers.com/clip/109356110/the-morning-call/ the polling company, inc. (R)]
|March 9–10, 2004 |500 (LV) |± 4.5% |{{party shading/Republican}}|47% |37% |16% |
| style="text-align:left;"|Franklin & Marshall College[https://web.archive.org/web/20120509154217/https://edisk.fandm.edu/FLI/keystone/pdf/keyfeb04_1.pdf Franklin & Marshall College]
|February 19–22, 2004 |176 (RV) |± 7.3% |{{party shading/Republican}}|55% |17% |28% |
| style="text-align:left;"|the polling company, inc. (R)
|January 2004 |500 (LV) |± 4.5% |{{party shading/Republican}}|51% |28% |21% |
| style="text-align:left;"|Muhlenberg College[https://www.newspapers.com/clip/109353846/the-morning-call/ Muhlenberg College][https://www.newspapers.com/clip/109353994/the-morning-call/ p. 2]
|Nov 23–Dec 8, 2003 |193 (V) |± 7% |{{party shading/Republican}}|52% |25% |23% |
| style="text-align:left;"|Franklin & Marshall College[https://web.archive.org/web/20120509153127/https://edisk.fandm.edu/FLI/keystone/pdf/keynov03_2.pdf Franklin & Marshall College]
|Oct 27–Nov 16, 2003 |257 (RV) |± 6% |{{party shading/Republican}}|49% |18% |33% |
= Results =
[[File:2004 Pennsylvania U.S. Senate Republican primary results map by county.svg|thumb|Results by county
{{collapsible list
| title = {{legend|#E27F7F|Specter}}
|{{legend|#E27F7F|50–60%}}
|{{legend|#D75D5D|60–70%}}
}}
{{collapsible list
| title = {{legend|#FF9A50|Toomey}}
|{{legend|#FF9A50|50–60%}}
|{{legend|#ff7f2a|60–70%}}
}}
]]
{{Election box begin no change
| title = Republican Party primary for Pennsylvania United States Senate election, 2004}}
{{Election box winning candidate with party link no change
| party = Republican Party (United States)
| candidate = Arlen Specter (incumbent)
| votes = 530,839
| percentage = 50.82%
}}
{{Election box candidate with party link no change
| party = Republican Party (United States)
| candidate = Pat Toomey
| votes = 513,693
| percentage = 49.18%
}}
{{Election box total no change
| votes = 1,044,532
| percentage = 100.00%
}}
{{Election box end}}
:Source: [https://electionreturns.pa.gov/Home/CountyBreakDownResults?officeId=2&districtId=1&ElectionID=13&ElectionType=P&IsActive=0 PA Department of State - 2004 General Primary]
General election
= Candidates =
Major
- Joe Hoeffel (D), U.S. Representative
- Arlen Specter (R), incumbent U.S. Senator
Minor
- Jim Clymer (C)
- Betsy Summers (L)
= Campaign =
For Democrats, hope of winning the election centered on Toomey's defeat of Specter. However, after the challenge from the right failed, enthusiasm from the party establishment waned and Hoeffel had difficulty matching the name recognition and fundraising power of his opponent {{Cite web | url=http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/article.php?id%3DSPA2004102201 | title=Pennsylvania Senate 2004, Crystal Ball, U.Va. | access-date=April 30, 2009 | url-status=dead | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080213062620/http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/article.php?id=SPA2004102201 | archive-date=February 13, 2008 }} Despite contempt from conservatives, Specter enjoyed high levels of support from independent voters and, as in previous elections, a surprisingly large crossover from Democratic voters. Even in the areas in which Toomey performed best in the Republican primary (mainly the state's conservative, rural center), Specter performed well. Except for his large margin of victory in almost uniformly Democratic Philadelphia, Hoeffel was crushed at the polls; his only other wins came by close margins in three metro Pittsburgh counties; although President Bush proved to be unpopular in the state, voters were not willing to abandon Specter over party affiliation.{{Cite web | url=http://media.www.dailypennsylvanian.com/media/storage/paper882/news/2004/09/27/News/Hoeffel.Trails.Specter.By.Large.Margin.In.Senate.Race-2150770.shtml | title=Hoeffel trails Specter by large margin in Senate race - News | access-date=April 30, 2009 | url-status=dead | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090504141851/http://media.www.dailypennsylvanian.com/media/storage/paper882/news/2004/09/27/News/Hoeffel.Trails.Specter.By.Large.Margin.In.Senate.Race-2150770.shtml | archive-date=May 4, 2009 }} Incidentally, Toomey was elected to the seat in 2010, after Specter switched to the Democratic Party in 2009 and subsequently lost renomination to U.S. Congressman and former Navy Admiral Joe Sestak.{{Citation needed|date=April 2021}}
= Predictions =
| class="wikitable" style="text-align:center" |
| Source
! Ranking ! As of |
|---|
| align=left | Sabato's Crystal Ball{{cite web | title=The Final Predictions | url=https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/ljs2004110101/ | website=Sabato's Crystal Ball | access-date=May 2, 2021}}
| {{USRaceRating|Safe|R}} | November 1, 2004 |
= Polling =
| class="wikitable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;" |
| style="vertical-align:bottom"
! Poll source ! Date(s) ! Sample ! Margin ! style="width:100px;"| Arlen ! style="width:100px;"| Joel ! style="width:100px;"| Jim ! style="width:100px;"| Betsy ! Undecided |
| style="text-align:left;"|SurveyUSA[https://web.archive.org/web/20041102141111/https://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/PA041101pressen.pdf SurveyUSA]
|Oct 31–Nov 1, 2004 |650 (LV) |± 3.9% |{{party shading/Republican}}|53% |35% |8% | |4% |
| style="text-align:left;"|Strategic Vision (R)[https://web.archive.org/web/20041103065957/http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/pennsylvania.htm Strategic Vision (R)]
|October 29–31, 2004 |801 (LV) |± 3% |{{party shading/Republican}}|55% |33% |4% | |8% |
| style="text-align:left;"|Quinnipiac University[https://poll.qu.edu/Poll-Release-Legacy?releaseid=492 Quinnipiac University]
|October 27–31, 2004 |1,022 (LV) |± 3.1% |{{party shading/Republican}}|53% |33% |7% | |7% |
| style="text-align:left;"|Zogby International[https://web.archive.org/web/20041205033905/http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=918 Zogby International]
|October 27–30, 2004 |601 (LV) |± 4.1% |{{party shading/Republican}}|54% |31% | | |15% |
| style="text-align:left;"|Zogby International[https://web.archive.org/web/20041206223944/http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=916 Zogby International]
|October 26–29, 2004 |602 (LV) |± 4.1% |{{party shading/Republican}}|57% |28% | | |15% |
| style="text-align:left;"|Zogby International[https://web.archive.org/web/20041208094601/http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=913 Zogby International]
|October 25–28, 2004 |603 (LV) |± 4.1% |{{party shading/Republican}}|53% |30% | | |17% |
| style="text-align:left;"|Strategic Vision (R)
|October 25–27, 2004 |801 (LV) |± 3% |{{party shading/Republican}}|55% |35% |4% | |6% |
| style="text-align:left;"|Zogby International[https://web.archive.org/web/20041206222535/http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=910 Zogby International]
|October 24–27, 2004 |602 (LV) |± 4.1% |{{party shading/Republican}}|55% |29% | | |16% |
| style="text-align:left;"|Temple University[https://www.newspapers.com/clip/109397548/the-philadelphia-inquirer/ Temple University]
|October 22–27, 2004 |1,488 (RV) |± 2.6% |{{party shading/Republican}}|51% |29% |5% |3% |12% |
| style="text-align:left;"|Zogby International[https://web.archive.org/web/20041209102505/http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=908 Zogby International]
|October 23–26, 2004 |602 (LV) |± 4.1% |{{party shading/Republican}}|54% |33% | | |13% |
| rowspan=4 style="text-align:left;"|Quinnipiac University[https://poll.qu.edu/Poll-Release-Legacy?releaseid=489 Quinnipiac University]
|rowspan=4|October 22–26, 2004 |rowspan=2|1,340 (RV) |rowspan=2|± 2.7% |{{party shading/Republican}}|52% |29% |6% | |13% |
| {{party shading/Republican}}|54%
|30% | | |16% |
| rowspan=2|909 (LV)
|rowspan=2|± 3.3% |{{party shading/Republican}}|55% |33% |7% | |5% |
| {{party shading/Republican}}|60%
|34% | | |6% |
| style="text-align:left;"|SurveyUSA[https://web.archive.org/web/20041027161109/http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/PA041026pressen.pdf SurveyUSA]
|October 23–25, 2004 |797 (LV) |± 3.5% |{{party shading/Republican}}|51% |38% |6% | |5% |
| style="text-align:left;"|Zogby International[https://web.archive.org/web/20041205095805/http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=906 Zogby International]
|October 22–25, 2004 |602 (LV) |± 4.1% |{{party shading/Republican}}|53% |35% | | |12% |
| style="text-align:left;"|Zogby International[https://web.archive.org/web/20041206215802/http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=904 Zogby International]
|October 21–24, 2004 |603 (LV) |± 4.1% |{{party shading/Republican}}|48% |38% | | |14% |
| rowspan=2 style="text-align:left;"|Franklin & Marshall College[https://web.archive.org/web/20120515181618/https://edisk.fandm.edu/FLI/keystone/pdf/keyoct04_2.pdf Franklin & Marshall College]
|rowspan=2|October 19–23, 2003 |622 (RV) |± 3.9% |{{party shading/Republican}}|52% |29% |4% |2% |13% |
| 376 (LV)
|± 5.1% |{{party shading/Republican}}|52% |31% | | |17% |
| style="text-align:left;"|Mason-Dixon[https://web.archive.org/web/20060830000637/http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/04299/401277.stm Mason-Dixon]
|October 19–21, 2004 |800 (LV) |± 3.5% |{{party shading/Republican}}|50% |32% |7% | |11% |
| rowspan=4 style="text-align:left;"|Quinnipiac University[https://poll.qu.edu/Poll-Release-Legacy?releaseid=486 Quinnipiac University]
|rowspan=4|October 16–20, 2004 |rowspan=2|1,185 (RV) |rowspan=2|± 2.9% |{{party shading/Republican}}|49% |33% |5% | |13% |
| {{party shading/Republican}}|52%
|34% | | |14% |
| rowspan=2|841 (LV)
|rowspan=2|± 3.4% |{{party shading/Republican}}|51% |36% |6% | |7% |
| {{party shading/Republican}}|55%
|37% | | |8% |
| style="text-align:left;"|Strategic Vision (R)
|October 17–19, 2004 |801 (LV) |± 3% |{{party shading/Republican}}|54% |35% |4% | |7% |
| style="text-align:left;"|SurveyUSA[https://web.archive.org/web/20041022020150/http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/PA041018pressen.pdf SurveyUSA]
|October 15–17, 2004 |608 (LV) |± 4.1% |{{party shading/Republican}}|48% |41% |6% | |5% |
| rowspan=2 style="text-align:left;"|Quinnipiac University[https://poll.qu.edu/Poll-Release-Legacy?releaseid=480 Quinnipiac University]
|rowspan=2|October 9–11, 2004 |1,980 (RV) |± 2.2% |{{party shading/Republican}}|51% |33% | | |16% |
| 1,343 (LV)
|± 2.7% |{{party shading/Republican}}|55% |36% | | |9% |
| style="text-align:left;"|Strategic Vision (R)
|October 9–11, 2004 |801 (LV) |± 3% |{{party shading/Republican}}|52% |33% |3% | |12% |
| style="text-align:left;"|SurveyUSA[https://web.archive.org/web/20041108174733/http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/PA041006pressen891.pdf SurveyUSA]
|October 3–5, 2004 |767 (LV) |± 3.6% |{{party shading/Republican}}|54% |35% | | |11% |
| style="text-align:left;"|Franklin & Marshall College[https://web.archive.org/web/20120515175532/https://edisk.fandm.edu/FLI/keystone/pdf/keyoct04_1.pdf Franklin & Marshall College]
|Sep 30–Oct 4, 2003 |594 (RV) |± 4% |{{party shading/Republican}}|46% |32% |6% | |16% |
| style="text-align:left;"|Strategic Vision (R)
|September 27–29, 2004 |801 (LV) |± 3% |{{party shading/Republican}}|53% |33% |3% | |11% |
| style="text-align:left;"|Mason-Dixon[https://web.archive.org/web/20080328012416/http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/04276/389309.stm Mason-Dixon]
|September 27–28, 2004 |625 (RV) |± 4% |{{party shading/Republican}}|53% |31% | | |16% |
| rowspan=2 style="text-align:left;"|Quinnipiac University[https://poll.qu.edu/Poll-Release-Legacy?releaseid=406 Quinnipiac University]
|rowspan=2|September 22–26, 2004 |1,125 (RV) |± 2.9% |{{party shading/Republican}}|52% |33% | | |15% |
| 726 (LV)
|± 3.6% |{{party shading/Republican}}|56% |37% | | |7% |
| style="text-align:left;"|Strategic Vision (R)
|September 13–15, 2004 |801 (LV) |± 3% |{{party shading/Republican}}|52% |33% |4% | |11% |
| style="text-align:left;"|Franklin & Marshall College[https://web.archive.org/web/20120509155407/https://edisk.fandm.edu/FLI/keystone/pdf/keysep04_2.pdf Franklin & Marshall College]
|September 8–15, 2003 |491 (RV) |± 4.4% |{{party shading/Republican}}|51% |25% |5% | |19% |
| rowspan=2 style="text-align:left;"|Quinnipiac University[https://poll.qu.edu/Poll-Release-Legacy?releaseid=400 Quinnipiac University]
|rowspan=2|September 11–14, 2004 |1,205 (RV) |± 2.8% |{{party shading/Republican}}|51% |33% | | |16% |
| 792 (LV)
|± 3.5% |{{party shading/Republican}}|52% |37% | | |11% |
| style="text-align:left;"|SurveyUSA[https://web.archive.org/web/20041108174723/http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/PA040910pressen.pdf SurveyUSA]
|September 7–9, 2004 |684 (LV) |± 3.8% |{{party shading/Republican}}|51% |33% | | |16% |
| style="text-align:left;"|Strategic Vision (R)
|August 26–28, 2004 |801 (LV) |± 3% |{{party shading/Republican}}|51% |31% |4% | |14% |
| rowspan=2 style="text-align:left;"|Pew Research[https://web.archive.org/web/20040828003011/http://www.issuespa.net/articles/10061/ Pew Research]
|rowspan=2|August 13–21, 2004 |1,006 (RV) |± 3% |{{party shading/Republican}}|54% |36% | | |10% |
| 861 (LV)
|± 4% |{{party shading/Republican}}|56% |36% | | |8% |
| style="text-align:left;"|Strategic Vision (R)
|August 16–18, 2004 |801 (LV) |± 3% |{{party shading/Republican}}|49% |32% |3% | |16% |
| style="text-align:left;"|Quinnipiac University[https://poll.qu.edu/Poll-Release-Legacy?releaseid=314 Quinnipiac University]
|August 11–16, 2004 |1,430 (RV) |± 2.6% |{{party shading/Republican}}|48% |33% | | |19% |
| style="text-align:left;"|Franklin & Marshall College[https://web.archive.org/web/20120503054411/https://edisk.fandm.edu/FLI/keystone/pdf/keyaug04_1.pdf Franklin & Marshall College]
|August 2–15, 2003 |660 (RV) |± 3.8% |{{party shading/Republican}}|53% |26% |2% | |19% |
| style="text-align:left;"|SurveyUSA[https://web.archive.org/web/20041108174726/http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/PA040803pressen.pdf SurveyUSA]
|Jul 31–Aug 2, 2004 |740 (LV) |± 3.7% |{{party shading/Republican}}|49% |34% | | |17% |
| style="text-align:left;"|Quinnipiac University[https://poll.qu.edu/Poll-Release-Legacy?releaseid=309 Quinnipiac University]
|July 6–11, 2004 |1,577 (RV) |± 2.5% |{{party shading/Republican}}|51% |36% | | |13% |
| style="text-align:left;"|Quinnipiac University[https://poll.qu.edu/Poll-Release-Legacy?releaseid=307 Quinnipiac University]
|June 21–22, 2004 |839 (RV) |± 3.4% |{{party shading/Republican}}|50% |35% | | |15% |
| style="text-align:left;"|Neighborhood Research (C)[https://www.newspapers.com/clip/109385097/sunday-news/ Neighborhood Research (C)]
|June 7–16, 2004 |631 (LV) |± 3.9% |{{party shading/Republican}}|52% |23% |2% | |23% |
| style="text-align:left;"|SurveyUSA[https://web.archive.org/web/20040713015803/http://www.surveyusa.com/currentelectionpolls.html SurveyUSA]
|June 7–9, 2004 |679 (LV) |± 3.8% |{{party shading/Republican}}|58% |33% | | |9% |
| style="text-align:left;"|Quinnipiac University[https://poll.qu.edu/Poll-Release-Legacy?releaseid=306 Quinnipiac University]
|May 24–25, 2004 |701 (RV) |± 3.7% |{{party shading/Republican}}|49% |37% | | |14% |
| style="text-align:left;"|Quinnipiac University[https://poll.qu.edu/Poll-Release-Legacy?releaseid=300 Quinnipiac University]
|March 9–15, 2004 |1,022 (RV) |± 3.1% |{{party shading/Republican}}|45% |29% | | |26% |
| style="text-align:left;"|Quinnipiac University[https://poll.qu.edu/Poll-Release-Legacy?releaseid=297 Quinnipiac University]
|February 10–16, 2004 |1,356 (RV) |± 2.7% |{{party shading/Republican}}|50% |31% | | |19% |
| style="text-align:left;"|Quinnipiac University[https://poll.qu.edu/Poll-Release-Legacy?releaseid=380 Quinnipiac University]
|December 11–14, 2003 |1,092 (RV) |± 3% |{{party shading/Republican}}|50% |32% | | |18% |
| style="text-align:left;"|Franklin & Marshall College
|Oct 27–Nov 16, 2003 |593 (RV) |± 4% |{{party shading/Republican}}|47% |25% | | |28% |
| style="text-align:left;"|Quinnipiac University[https://poll.qu.edu/Poll-Release-Legacy?releaseid=377 Quinnipiac University]
|October 9–13, 2003 |1,116 (RV) |± 2.9% |{{party shading/Republican}}|50% |33% | | |17% |
| style="text-align:left;"|Quinnipiac University[https://poll.qu.edu/Poll-Release-Legacy?releaseid=376 Quinnipiac University]
|Jul 30–Aug 4, 2003 |1,037 (RV) |± 3% |{{party shading/Republican}}|53% |29% | | |18% |
| style="text-align:left;"|DSCC (D)[https://www.newspapers.com/clip/109352213/the-morning-call/ DSCC (D)]
|June 10–12, 2003 |500 (LV) |± 4.4% |{{party shading/Republican}}|53% |26% | | |21% |
= Results =
{{Election box begin no change
| title = General election results}}
{{Election box winning candidate with party link no change
| party = Republican Party (United States)
| candidate = Arlen Specter (incumbent)
| votes = 2,925,080
| percentage = 52.62%
| change =
}}
{{Election box candidate with party link no change
| party = Democratic Party (United States)
| candidate = Joe Hoeffel
| votes = 2,334,126
| percentage = 41.99%
| change =
}}
{{Election box candidate with party link no change
| party = Constitution Party (United States)
| candidate = Jim Clymer
| votes = 220,056
| percentage = 3.96%
| change =
}}
{{Election box candidate with party link no change
| party = Libertarian Party (United States)
| candidate = Betsy Summers
| votes = 79,263
| percentage = 1.43%
| change =
}}
{{Election box total no change
| votes = 5,769,590
| percentage = 100.00%
}}
{{Election box hold with party link no change
| winner = Republican Party (United States)
}}
{{Election box end}}
:Source: [http://clerk.house.gov/member_info/electionInfo/2004/2004Stat.htm#38 Election Statistics - Office of the Clerk of the House of Representatives]
==Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic==
==Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican==
See also
Notes
{{Reflist|group=lower-alpha}}
References
{{Reflist}}
External links
Debates
- [https://www.c-span.org/video/?181252-1/pennsylvania-republican-senate-primary-debate Pennsylvania Senate Republican Primary Election Debate] on C-SPAN, April 3, 2004
- [https://www.c-span.org/video/?183779-1/pennsylvania-senate-debate Pennsylvania Senate General Election Debate] on C-SPAN, October 2, 2004
- [https://www.c-span.org/video/?183869-1/pennsylvania-senate-debate Pennsylvania Senate General Election Debate] on C-SPAN, October 9, 2004
Official campaign websites (archived)
Democrats
- {{usurped|1=[https://web.archive.org/web/20041102030426/http://www.hoeffelforsenate.com/ Joe Hoeffel]}}
Republicans
- [https://web.archive.org/web/20041101064452/http://specter2004.com/ Arlen Specter]
- [https://web.archive.org/web/20040323190607/http://www.pattoomey.org/ Pat Toomey]
{{United States elections, 2004}}