2008 United States Senate election in Oregon
{{Short description|none}}
{{Use mdy dates | date=December 2017}}
{{Infobox election
| election_name = 2008 United States Senate election in Oregon
| country = Oregon
| type = presidential
| ongoing = no
| previous_election = 2002 United States Senate election in Oregon
| previous_year = 2002
| next_election = 2014 United States Senate election in Oregon
| next_year = 2014
| election_date = November 4, 2008
| image1 = File:Jeff Merkley (cropped).jpg
| image_size = 150x150px
| nominee1 = Jeff Merkley
| party1 = Democratic Party (United States)
| popular_vote1 = 864,392
| percentage1 = 48.90%
| image2 = File:Gordon Smith official portrait (cropped).jpg
| nominee2 = Gordon Smith
| party2 = Republican Party (United States)
| popular_vote2 = 805,159
| percentage2 = 45.55%
| image3 = 3x4.svg
| nominee3 = David Brownlow
| party3 = Constitution Party (United States)
| popular_vote3 = 92,565
| percentage3 = 5.24%
| map_image = {{switcher
|County results
|Congressional district results
|default=1
}}
| map_size = 250px
| map_caption = Merkley: {{legend0|#a5b0ff|40–50%}} {{legend0|#7996e2|50–60%}} {{legend0|#6674de|60–70%}}
Smith: {{legend0|#ffb2b2|40–50%}} {{legend0|#e27f7f|50–60%}} {{legend0|#d75d5d|60–70%}} {{legend0|#d72f30|70–80%}}
| title = U.S. Senator
| before_election = Gordon Smith
| before_party = Republican Party (United States)
| after_election = Jeff Merkley
| after_party = Democratic Party (United States)
}}
{{ElectionsOR}}
The 2008 United States Senate election in Oregon was held on November 4, 2008. Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Gordon H. Smith sought reelection to a third term. Smith was the only Republican Senator from the West Coast (excluding Alaska) and the only Republican holding statewide office in Oregon. He was opposed by Democrat Jeff Merkley, the Speaker of the Oregon House of Representatives, and David Brownlow of the Constitution Party of Oregon. Merkley won by a narrow margin, with Smith not conceding until two days after the election.{{cite news | url=http://www.oregonlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2008/11/merkley_declares_victory_thurs.html | title=Jeff Merkley plunges into his new job in the U.S. Senate | date=November 6, 2008 | last=Esteve | first=Harry|author2=Crombie, Noelle | publisher=The Oregonian | work=Politics & Elections | access-date=November 6, 2008}} Merkley became the first Democrat to win this seat since 1960, and since Smith was the only Republican holding statewide office in Oregon at the time, this was the first time since 1860 that no Republicans won or held statewide office in Oregon. Merkley's inauguration marked the first time since 1967 that Democrats held both of Oregon's United States Senate seats.
This was one of the most competitive races during the 2008 United States Senate elections,{{cite web | last=Phillips | first=Kate | title=G.O.P. Leader Maps Senate Elections | work=The Caucus | publisher=The New York Times | date=June 13, 2008 | url=http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/06/13/gop-leader-maps-senate-elections/#more-5357 | format=Blog | access-date=December 22, 2008}} and the race was the most expensive in Oregon history. As of late October 2008, advertising related to the race exceeded $27 million, outstripping the $15 million spent on a 2007 tobacco tax ballot measure and the $14.7 million spent in the gubernatorial election of 2006.{{cite news | title= Outside interests snag airtime | first=Jeff | last=Mapes | work=Local news | publisher=The Oregonian | date=October 23, 2008 | url=http://docs.newsbank.com/openurl?ctx_ver=z39.88-2004&rft_id=info:sid/iw.newsbank.com:NewsBank:ORGB&rft_val_format=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:ctx&rft_dat=124067F9641BAED0&svc_dat=InfoWeb:aggregated5&req_dat=8CE642B8CA5C4083BE84A2539D6E1A73 | access-date=December 22, 2008}}
Republican primary
= Candidates =
- Gordon Leitch, ophthalmologist
- Gordon Smith, incumbent U.S. Senator
= Results =
{{Election box begin no change
| title = Republican primary results
}}
{{Election box winning candidate with party link no change
| candidate = Gordon Smith (incumbent)
| party = Republican Party (United States)
| votes = 296,330
| percentage = 85.41%
}}
{{Election box candidate with party link no change
| candidate = Gordon Leitch
| party = Republican Party (United States)
| votes = 48,560
| percentage = 14.00%
}}
{{Election box candidate with party link no change
| candidate = Write-ins
| party = Republican Party (United States)
| votes = 2,068
| percentage = 0.69%
}}
{{Election box total no change
| votes = 309,943
| percentage = 100.00%
}}
{{Election box end}}
Democratic primary
= Candidates =
- Jeff Merkley, Speaker of the Oregon House of Representatives
- Steve Novick, attorney
- Candy Neville, real estate broker
- Roger Obrist, construction worker
- Pavel Goberman, perennial candidate
- David Loera, doctor
= Campaign =
In the Democratic primary, although Democrats held all statewide offices in Oregon, there was no clear Democratic challenger; former Oregon Gov. John Kitzhaber indicated early on that he was not interested. In January 2007, while the campaign was still in its infancy, Portland lawyer and political activist Steve Novick wrote a lengthy critique of Gordon Smith's record in the Portland Willamette Week.{{cite news | title=If I ran | last=Novick | first=Steve | author-link=Steve Novick | work=Cover story | publisher=Willamette Week | url=http://www.wweek.com/editorial/3312/8503/ | date=January 31, 2007 | access-date=May 6, 2007 | format=Guest article | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20070428001819/http://www.wweek.com/editorial/3312/8503/ | archive-date=April 28, 2007 | url-status=dead | df=mdy-all }} The article outlined a strategy to beat Smith, who Novick argued was actually more vulnerable than appeared. On April 18, 2007, Novick formally announced his candidacy for Senate.{{cite web | last=Chisholm | first=Kari | author-link=Kari Chisholm | title = He's in: Steve Novick takes on Gordon Smith. | work=Open Discussion | publisher=BlueOregon | date=April 18, 2007 | url=http://www.blueoregon.com/2007/04/hes_in_steve_no.html | format=Blog | access-date=December 20, 2008 }}
By the end of May, both Congressmen Earl Blumenauer and Peter DeFazio had announced they were not interested in entering the race, depleting what was considered by many the "first-tier" list of candidates for the position leaving Democrats searching for more candidates.{{cite web | last=Moore | first=Scott | title=Senate, Anyone? Democrats Search for a Candidate | work=News: City | publisher=The Portland Mercury | date=May 24, 2007 | url=http://www.portlandmercury.com/portland/Content?oid=330275&category=22101 | format=Article | access-date=December 22, 2008}} With no high-profile Democrats in the race, it was believed by that the most likely candidates would come from the state legislature. Since the legislature was still in session at the time it was considered unlikely that any prominent lawmakers would jump into the race until the end of June or later. Of those, Jeff Merkley, then Speaker of the Oregon House of Representatives was considered to be the most likely to challenge Smith due to rumors that he had been in talks with the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC).
The rumors that Merkley was being courted by the DSCC were confirmed when it was reported that he had travelled to the East Coast to discuss a possible run at the invitation of Senator Charles Schumer of New York, who as chairman of the DSCC was in charge of recruiting possible challengers to take on Smith.{{cite web | last = Cain | first = Brad | title = Oregon speaker looks at taking on GOP senator in 2008 | work = The Associated Press | publisher = KGW News | date = June 29, 2007 | url = http://www.kgw.com/sharedcontent/APStories/stories/D8Q26JEO0.html | format = Article | access-date = December 22, 2008 | url-status=dead | archive-url = https://archive.today/20070623102336/http://www.kgw.com/sharedcontent/APStories/stories/D8Q26JEO0.html | archive-date = June 23, 2007
}} Around the same time, State Senator Alan Bates from Jackson County was reported to be contemplating running for the Democratic nomination. Eventually Bates decided against running{{cite web | author=staff | title=Golden out of race | work=Eugene Weekly | date=August 23, 2007 | url=http://www.eugeneweekly.com/2007/08/23/news.html | format=Article | access-date=December 22, 2008 | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20081014164109/http://www.eugeneweekly.com/2007/08/23/news.html | archive-date=October 14, 2008 | url-status=dead | df=mdy-all }} and on August 1, 2007, Merkley filed papers, officially entering the race.{{cite web | title=Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley Files to Run for United States Senate | author=staff | work=Jeff Merkley for Oregon | date=August 1, 2007 | url=http://www.jeffmerkley.com/2007/08/oregon_house_sp.php | format=Press release | access-date=December 21, 2008 | url-status=dead | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20081127013047/http://www.jeffmerkley.com/2007/08/oregon_house_sp.php | archive-date=November 27, 2008 }}
Merkley and Novick gave back-to-back speeches at the yearly summit of the Democratic Party of Oregon in Sunriver. There Novick threw a political jab, challenging Merkley's statements that he had been an opponent of the war from the start by pointing to his support of a Republican-drafted non-binding resolution in 2003, two days after the invasion began, that praised President Bush for the invasion of Iraq and the efforts of the troops and prayed for their safety. The critique drew noticeably negative reactions from the crowd and Merkley won a straw poll at the summit, 103 to 50 for Novick.{{cite web | last=Mapes | first=Jeff | title=Novick jabs at Merkley on Iraq vote | work=Mapes on politics | publisher=The Oregonian | date=October 7, 2007 | url=http://blog.oregonlive.com/mapesonpolitics/2007/10/novick_jabs_at_merkley_on_iraq.html | format=Blog | access-date=December 22, 2008}}
Merkley went on to dismiss the criticism, pointing out that Legislative resolutions carry no force of law and are only statements of principle, that a legislator could freely pick and choose which parts of the resolution to support, and that he made clear that "you stand up and clarify what parts you're supporting and what parts you're opposed to and I did that more clearly than any member on the floor of the House."
By the end of November 2007, six Democratic candidates had filed papers to run for the seat: Novick, Merkley, real estate agent Candy Neville of Eugene, retired mental health counselor David Loera of Salem, retired construction worker Roger Obrist of Damascus, and perennial candidate Pavel Goberman of Beaverton.{{cite web | last=Esteve | first=Harry | title=U.S. Senate race: Democrats debate debates | work=Politics & Elections | publisher=The Oregonian | date=November 26, 2007 | url=http://www.oregonlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2007/11/us_senate_race_democrats_debat.html | format=Article | access-date=December 22, 2008}} Some pointed discussions ensued among the candidates over a debate schedule and formats.
On January 22, 2008, four of the Democratic candidates had their first debate in Pendleton, Oregon hosted by the East Oregonian newspaper.
Merkley went on to defeat Novick and the four other candidates in the Democratic primary on May 20, 2008.{{cite news | last=Walsh | first=Edward | title=Merkley scores chance to take on Smith | work=The Oregonian | url=http://www.oregonlive.com/politics/oregonian/index.ssf?/base/news/1211352909172240.xml&coll=7 | date=May 21, 2008 | access-date=May 21, 2008 | archive-date=May 30, 2008 | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080530113042/http://www.oregonlive.com/politics/oregonian/index.ssf?/base/news/1211352909172240.xml&coll=7 | url-status=dead }}
= Results =
[[File:2008 Oregon U.S. Senate election results map by county, Democratic primary.svg|thumb|Results by county, Democratic primary:
{{collapsible list
|title=Jeff Merkley
|{{legend|#7777ffff|50–55%}}{{legend|#9999ffff|45–50%}}{{legend|#afb0ffff|40–45%}}{{legend|#cdcdffff|35–40%}}{{legend|#e1e1ffff|30–35%}}
}}
{{collapsible list
|title=Steve Novick
|{{legend|#3cad3cff|50–55%}}{{legend|#5bc75bff|45–50%}}{{legend|#78e478ff|40–45%}}
}}
]]
{{Election box begin no change
| title = Democratic primary results{{Cite web|url=http://records.sos.state.or.us/ORSOSWebDrawer/Recordpdf/6873621|title=Content Manager WebDrawer - 2008 Primary Election Official Results}}
}}
{{Election box winning candidate with party link no change
| candidate = Jeff Merkley
| party = Democratic Party (United States)
| votes = 246,482
| percentage = 44.82%
}}
{{Election box candidate with party link no change
| candidate = Steve Novick
| party = Democratic Party (United States)
| votes = 230,889
| percentage = 41.98%
}}
{{Election box candidate with party link no change
| candidate = Candy Neville
| party = Democratic Party (United States)
| votes = 38,367
| percentage = 6.98%
}}
{{Election box candidate with party link no change
| candidate = Roger S. Obrist
| party = Democratic Party (United States)
| votes = 12,647
| percentage = 2.30%
}}
{{Election box candidate with party link no change
| candidate = Pavel Goberman
| party = Democratic Party (United States)
| votes = 12,056
| percentage = 2.19%
}}
{{Election box candidate with party link no change
| candidate = David Loera
| party = Democratic Party (United States)
| votes = 6,127
| percentage = 1.11%
}}
{{Election box candidate with party link no change
| candidate = Write-ins
| party = Democratic Party (United States)
| votes = 3,398
| percentage = 0.62%
}}
{{Election box total no change
| votes = 549,966
| percentage = 100.00%
}}
{{Election box end}}
General election
= Candidates =
== Major ==
- Jeff Merkley (D), Speaker of the State House
- Gordon Smith (R), incumbent U.S. Senator
== Minor ==
- David Brownlow (C), at its statewide nominating convention on June 7, 2008, the Constitution Party of Oregon named him as its Senate nominee.{{cite web | url=http://www.constitutionpartyoregon.net/ | title=Constitution Party of Oregon | access-date=September 25, 2008}}
= Predictions =
= Polling =
= Results =
{{Election box begin
| title = 2008 United States Senate election in Oregon{{cite web |last=Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives |author-link=Clerk of the United States House of Representatives |title=Statistics of the Presidential and Congressional Election of November 4, 2008 |url=https://clerk.house.gov/member_info/electionInfo/2008election.pdf |pages=52 & 53}}
}}
{{Election box winning candidate with party link
| party = Democratic Party (United States)
| candidate = Jeff Merkley
| votes = 864,392
| percentage = 48.90%
| change = +9.30%
}}
{{Election box candidate with party link
| party = Republican Party (United States)
| candidate = Gordon Smith (incumbent)
| votes = 805,159
| percentage = 45.55%
| change = -10.66%
}}
{{Election box candidate with party link
| party = Constitution Party (United States)
| candidate = David Brownlow
| votes = 92,565
| percentage = 5.24%
| change = +3.52
}}
{{Election box write-in with party link
| votes = 5,388
| percentage = 0.30%
| change = N/A
}}
{{Election box total
| votes = 1,767,504
| percentage = 100.00%
| change = N/A
}}
{{Election box gain with party link no swing
| winner = Democratic Party (United States)
| loser = Republican Party (United States)
}}
{{Election box end}}
== By county ==
File:OR- Merkley Rally (2929059757).jpg
Although Smith carried all but eight of Oregon's 36 counties, one of the counties he lost was Multnomah County, home to Portland. Ultimately, Merkley's 146,568-vote margin in Multnomah, his home county, proved too much for Smith to overcome; it was more than double Merkley's overall margin of 59,233 votes.
Constitution Party candidate David Brownlow was seen by some as a spoiler, as his number of votes was more than the margin between Merkley and Smith. However, Brownlow drew votes away from opponents of the Iraq War, which Smith supported.{{cite web|url= https://www.kgw.com/amp/article/news/local/brownlow-could-be-spoiler-in-ore-senate-race/283-90445069|title= Brownlow could be spoiler in Ore. Senate race|date=September 15, 2009|access-date=May 7, 2020}}
class="wikitable sortable" style="text-align:center" |
County
! Smith ! % ! Merkley ! % ! Brownlow ! % ! Others ! % |
---|
{{party shading/Republican}} | Baker
| 5,662 | 66.37 | 2,203 | 25.82 | 652 | 7.64 | 14 | 0.16 |
{{party shading/Democratic}} | Benton
| 17,933 | 40.23 | 24,911 | 55.89 | 1,567 | 3.52 | 163 | 0.37 |
{{party shading/Republican}} | Clackamas
| 92,780 | 49.97 | 83,558 | 45.00 | 8,851 | 4.77 | 479 | 0.26 |
{{party shading/Democratic}} | Clatsop
| 7,939 | 44.48 | 8,795 | 49.28 | 1,062 | 5.95 | 52 | 0.29 |
{{party shading/Democratic}} | Columbia
| 10,679 | 44.44 | 11,166 | 46.46 | 2,091 | 8.70 | 95 | 0.40 |
{{party shading/Republican}} | Coos
| 14,838 | 49.72 | 12,621 | 42.29 | 2,319 | 7.77 | 67 | 0.22 |
{{party shading/Republican}} | Crook
| 6,436 | 64.31 | 2,735 | 27.33 | 804 | 8.03 | 32 | 0.32 |
{{party shading/Republican}} | Curry
| 6,679 | 55.86 | 4,410 | 36.88 | 843 | 7.05 | 25 | 0.21 |
{{party shading/Republican}} | Deschutes
| 41,108 | 53.78 | 31,024 | 40.59 | 4,113 | 5.38 | 197 | 0.26 |
{{party shading/Republican}} | Douglas
| 29,969 | 58.63 | 17,387 | 34.02 | 3,626 | 7.09 | 130 | 0.25 |
{{party shading/Republican}} | Gilliam
| 699 | 64.66 | 302 | 27.94 | 78 | 7.22 | 2 | 0.19 |
{{party shading/Republican}} | Grant
| 2,821 | 74.12 | 748 | 19.65 | 232 | 6.10 | 5 | 0.13 |
{{party shading/Republican}} | Harney
| 2,574 | 71.98 | 755 | 21.11 | 242 | 6.77 | 5 | 0.14 |
{{party shading/Democratic}} | Hood River
| 4,070 | 42.68 | 5,045 | 52.90 | 403 | 4.23 | 18 | 0.19 |
{{party shading/Republican}} | Jackson
| 49,225 | 50.53 | 41,828 | 42.94 | 6,071 | 6.23 | 296 | 0.30 |
{{party shading/Republican}} | Jefferson
| 4,788 | 59.26 | 2,705 | 33.48 | 564 | 6.98 | 22 | 0.27 |
{{party shading/Republican}} | Josephine
| 22,790 | 56.30 | 14,153 | 34.97 | 3,409 | 8.42 | 125 | 0.31 |
{{party shading/Republican}} | Klamath
| 19,241 | 67.51 | 7,005 | 24.58 | 2,152 | 7.55 | 104 | 0.36 |
{{party shading/Republican}} | Lake
| 2,697 | 74.79 | 668 | 18.52 | 234 | 6.49 | 7 | 0.19 |
{{party shading/Democratic}} | Lane
| 66,936 | 37.52 | 103,631 | 58.09 | 7,393 | 4.14 | 449 | 0.25 |
{{party shading/Democratic}} | Lincoln
| 9,464 | 40.78 | 12,097 | 52.13 | 1,598 | 6.89 | 47 | 0.20 |
{{party shading/Republican}} | Linn
| 27,047 | 54.29 | 18,403 | 36.94 | 4,180 | 8.39 | 192 | 0.39 |
{{party shading/Republican}} | Malheur
| 7,355 | 73.21 | 2,218 | 22.08 | 469 | 4.67 | 5 | 0.05 |
{{party shading/Republican}} | Marion
| 62,560 | 51.71 | 49,626 | 41.02 | 8,359 | 6.91 | 441 | 0.36 |
{{party shading/Republican}} | Morrow
| 2,751 | 68.57 | 988 | 24.63 | 266 | 6.63 | 7 | 0.17 |
{{party shading/Democratic}} | Multnomah
| 95,950 | 27.25 | 242,518 | 68.87 | 12,410 | 3.52 | 1,284 | 0.36 |
{{party shading/Republican}} | Polk
| 18,718 | 53.53 | 13,906 | 39.77 | 2,195 | 6.28 | 147 | 0.42 |
{{party shading/Republican}} | Sherman
| 685 | 66.96 | 277 | 27.08 | 54 | 5.28 | 7 | 0.68 |
{{party shading/Republican}} | Tillamook
| 6,516 | 50.44 | 5,540 | 42.89 | 826 | 6.39 | 36 | 0.28 |
{{party shading/Republican}} | Umatilla
| 17,933 | 71.74 | 5,948 | 23.80 | 1,068 | 4.27 | 47 | 0.19 |
{{party shading/Republican}} | Union
| 8,230 | 67.13 | 3,329 | 27.15 | 676 | 5.51 | 25 | 0.20 |
{{party shading/Republican}} | Wallowa
| 3,226 | 74.20 | 940 | 21.62 | 177 | 4.07 | 5 | 0.11 |
{{party shading/Republican}} | Wasco
| 5,762 | 51.96 | 4,586 | 41.36 | 718 | 6.47 | 23 | 0.21 |
{{party shading/Democratic}} | Washington
| 106,114 | 46.53 | 111,367 | 48.84 | 9,886 | 4.34 | 678 | 0.30 |
{{party shading/Republican}} | Wheeler
| 509 | 64.35 | 212 | 26.80 | 68 | 8.60 | 2 | 0.25 |
{{party shading/Republican}} | Yamhill
| 22,475 | 53.10 | 16,787 | 39.66 | 2,909 | 6.87 | 155 | 0.37 |
;Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- Clatsop (largest city: Astoria)
- Columbia (largest city: St. Helens)
- Hood River (largest city: Hood River)
- Lane (largest city: Eugene)
- Lincoln (largest city: Newport)
- Benton (largest city: Corvallis)
- Washington (largest city: Hillsboro)
See also
References
{{reflist}}
External links
- [https://sos.oregon.gov/voting-elections/Pages/default.aspx Elections Division] from the Oregon Secretary of State
- [http://www.votesmart.org/election_congress_state.php?state_id=OR&go33.x=6&go33.y=8 U.S. Congress candidates for Oregon] at Project Vote Smart
- [http://www.congress.org/congressorg/e4/clist/race/?raceid=1839 Oregon U.S. Senate race] from Congress.org
- [https://web.archive.org/web/20080504013559/http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=senate-OR Oregon U.S. Senate race] from CQ Politics
- [http://www.thegreenpapers.com/G08/OR.phtml Oregon U.S. Senate race] from The Green Papers
- [http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=39483 Oregon U.S. Senate] from OurCampaigns.com
- [https://web.archive.org/web/20070514105814/http://www.2008racetracker.com/page/OR-Sen Oregon U.S. Senate race] from 2008 Race Tracker
- [http://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary.php?id=ORS1&cycle=2008 Campaign contributions] from OpenSecrets
- [https://web.archive.org/web/20080820212430/http://www.pollster.com/08-OR-Sen-GE-SvM.php Smith (R-i) vs Merkley (D)] graph of multiple polls from Pollster.com
{{US Third Party Election}}
{{OR2008elections}}
{{Oregon elections}}
{{2008 United States elections}}