2010 United States Senate election in New York

{{Short description|none}}

{{for|the other Senate election in New York held in parallel|2010 United States Senate special election in New York}}

{{Use mdy dates|date=September 2017}}

{{Infobox election

| election_name = 2010 United States Senate election in New York

| country = New York

| flag_image = Flag of New York (1901-2020).svg

| type = presidential

| ongoing = Yes

| previous_election = 2004 United States Senate election in New York

| previous_year = 2004

| next_election = 2016 United States Senate election in New York

| next_year = 2016

| election_date = November 2, 2010

| image1 = File:Chuck Schumer official photo (3x4a).jpg

| nominee1 = Chuck Schumer

| party1 = Democratic Party (United States)

| alliance1 = {{collapsible list

| titlestyle = font-weight:normal;background:transparent;text-align:left;

| title = Parties

| Working Families

| Independence

}}

| popular_vote1 = 3,047,111

| percentage1 = 66.33%

| image2 = Jay Townsend.png

| nominee2 = Jay Townsend

| party2 = Republican Party (United States)

| alliance2 = Conservative

| popular_vote2 = 1,479,724

| percentage2 = 32.21%

| map_image = 2010 United States Senate election in New York results map by county.svg

| map_size = 300px

| map_caption = County results
Schumer: {{legend0|#a5b0ff|40–50%}} {{legend0|#7996e2|50–60%}} {{legend0|#6674de|60–70%}} {{legend0|#584cde|70–80%}} {{legend0|#3933e5|80–90%}} {{legend0|#0d056c|>90%}}
Townsend: {{legend0|#ffb2b2|40–50%}} {{legend0|#e27f7f|50–60%}}

| title = U.S. Senator

| before_election = Chuck Schumer

| before_party = Democratic Party (United States)

| after_election = Chuck Schumer

| after_party = Democratic Party (United States)

}}

{{ElectionsNY}}

The 2010 United States Senate election in New York took place on November 2, 2010, along with elections to the United States Senate in other states, as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democrat U.S. Senator Chuck Schumer won re-election to a third term. Schumer won every county except for Wyoming, Tioga, and Hamilton counties.{{cite news | url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/12/01/AR2008120102621.html | title=A Rush for Clinton's Senate Seat | author=Richberg, Keith B. | newspaper=The Washington Post | date=December 2, 2008 | access-date=December 18, 2008}}

Background

In the 2004 U.S. Senate election, Schumer had defeated Republican Assemblyman Howard Mills by a 71 to 24 percent margin. Schumer was highly popular in New York, and it was believed that any Republican contender would likely not fare well against him in 2010.{{cite news | url=http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/2009/01/31/2009-01-31_sen_chuck_schumer_unlikely_to_see_compet.html | title=Sen. Chuck Schumer unlikely to see competition in 2010 reelection bid | author=Saltonsall, David | work=New York Daily News | date=February 1, 2009 | access-date=February 2, 2009}} Schumer was heavily favored to retain his seat.{{cite web | url=http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/12/2010-senate-rankings-revised-and.html | title=2010 Senate Rankings, Revised and Extended | author=Silver, Nate | publisher=FiveThirtyEight.com | date=December 8, 2008 | access-date=January 24, 2009 | author-link=Nate Silver | archive-date=February 4, 2009 | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090204104659/http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/12/2010-senate-rankings-revised-and.html | url-status=dead }}

In addition to this regular election, there was also a special election to fill the Senate seat vacated by Hillary Clinton, who became the United States Secretary of State on January 21, 2009. In addition, there was the New York gubernatorial election. The existence of two other top-level statewide races, one with a Democratic incumbent perceived as vulnerable and the other an open race, respectively,{{cite news | url=http://www.nydailynews.com/ny_local/2009/03/23/2009-03-23_new_siena_poll_finds_gov_david_patersons.html | title=New Siena Poll finds Gov. David Paterson's approval rating at just 19% | publisher=Nydailynews.com | date=March 23, 2009 | access-date=June 14, 2010 | location=New York | first=Kenneth | last=Lovett}} was believed to lead major New York Republicans to gravitate towards them rather than challenge the popular Schumer.{{cite web | url=http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Senate/senate-2010.html | title=Senate Races 2010 | publisher=VoteFromAbroad.org | access-date=December 18, 2008}} {{Dead link | date=October 2010 | bot=H3llBot}}

Republican nomination

= Convention =

== Candidates ==

  • Gary Berntsen, retired CIA officer, received the party's endorsement on the second round of balloting{{cite news | url=http://www.recordonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20100602/NEWS/6020356/-1/news04 | title=Townsend trails Berntsen at state GOP convention | author=McKenna, Chris | newspaper=Times Herald-Record | date=June 2, 2010 | access-date=August 17, 2010 | archive-date=June 16, 2011 | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110616195337/http://www.recordonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20100602/NEWS/6020356/-1/news04 | url-status=dead }}
  • Martin Chicon, candidate for New York Senate in 2008{{cite web | url=http://video.aol.co.uk/video-detail/martin-chicon-ny-us-senator-2010-republican-candidate-nyc-sat-10309/3694919687 | title=Martin Chicon NY-US Senator 2010 Republican Candidate NYC Sat 10/3/09 - AOL Video | publisher=Video.aol.co.uk | access-date=June 14, 2010 | archive-date=September 20, 2020 | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200920013557/http://video.aol.co.uk/video-detail/martin-chicon-ny-us-senator-2010-republican-candidate-nyc-sat-10309/3694919687 | url-status=dead }} and New York Republican State Committee member from upper Manhattan.
  • George Maragos, Nassau County Comptroller{{cite web | url=http://capitaltonight.com/2010/04/nassau-comptroller-eyeing-schumer-challenge | title=Nassau Comptroller Eyeing Schumer Challenge | publisher=Capitaltonight.com | date=April 15, 2010 | access-date=June 14, 2010 | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110815181509/http://www.capitaltonight.com/2010/04/nassau-comptroller-eyeing-schumer-challenge/ | archive-date=August 15, 2011 | url-status=dead | df=mdy-all }}
  • James Staudenraus, Long Island resident and 2008 state assembly candidate{{cite web | url=http://polhudson.lohudblogs.com/2010/05/12/latest-count-on-u-s-senate-candidates-22 | title=Latest count on U.S. Senate candidates: 22 {{!}} Politics on the Hudson | publisher=Polhudson.lohudblogs.com | date=May 12, 2010 | access-date=June 14, 2010 | archive-date=May 19, 2010 | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100519015702/http://polhudson.lohudblogs.com/2010/05/12/latest-count-on-u-s-senate-candidates-22/ | url-status=dead }}
  • Jay Townsend, Republican strategist (finished second and also qualified for the primary)

== Results ==

Only two candidates, Berntsen and Townsend, obtained at least 25% of the vote at the New York State Republican Convention on June 1, 2010. Berntsen came in first,{{cite web|url=https://www.realclearpolitics.com/politics_nation/2010/06/ny_gop_chooses_berntsen_schumer.html|title=NY GOP Chooses Berntsen Against Schumer|website=Real Clear Politics|last1=Trygstad|first1=Kyle|date=June 2, 2010|access-date=March 10, 2020}} but still needed to win the primary in order to win the Republican nomination. Berntsen lost the primary to Jay Townsend.{{cite web|url=https://newyork.cbslocal.com/2010/09/14/townsend-wins-gop-primary-for-senate-seat/|title=Townsend Wins GOP Primary For Senate Seat|website=CBS New York|agency=Associated Press|date=September 14, 2010|access-date=March 10, 2020}}

= Primary =

== Candidates ==

== Results ==

[[File:New York U.S. Senate Republican primary, 2010.svg|thumb|300px|Results by county:

{{collapsible list

| title = {{legend|#e27f7f|Townsend}}

|{{legend|#e27f7f|50–60%}}

|{{legend|#d75d5d|60–70%}}

|{{legend|#D72F30|70–80%}}

}}

{{collapsible list

| title = {{legend|#ff9955|Berntsen}}

|{{legend|#ff9955|50–60%}}

|{{legend|#ff7f2a|60–70%}}

}}

]]

{{Election box begin no change

| title = Republican primary results{{cite web | url=http://www.elections.ny.gov/NYSBOE/elections/2010/Primary/2010PrimaryElectionResults.pdf | work=NYS Board of Elections | title=New York State Board of Elections - Statewide Republican US Senator Primary - 6 year - Full Term | date=September 14, 2010 | access-date=January 28, 2017 | archive-date=August 23, 2012 | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120823020615/http://www.elections.ny.gov/NYSBOE/elections/2010/Primary/2010PrimaryElectionResults.pdf | url-status=dead }}

}}

{{Election box winning candidate with party link no change

| candidate = Jay Townsend

| party = Republican Party (United States)

| votes = 234,440

| percentage = 55.41%

}}

{{Election box candidate with party link no change

| candidate = Gary Berntsen

| party = Republican Party (United States)

| votes = 188,628

| percentage = 44.59%

}}

{{Election box total no change

| votes = 423,068

| percentage = 100.00%

}}

{{Election box end}}

General election

= Candidates =

= Predictions =

class="wikitable" style="text-align:center"
Source

! Ranking

! As of

Cook Political Report{{Cite web | url=http://cookpolitical.com/senate | title=Senate | publisher=Cook Political Report | access-date=October 26, 2010}}

| {{USRaceRating|Solid|D}}

| October 26, 2010

Rothenberg{{Cite web | url=http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/ratings/senate | title=Senate Ratings | publisher=Rothenberg Political Report | access-date=October 26, 2010}}

| {{USRaceRating|Safe|D}}

| October 22, 2010

RealClearPolitics{{Cite web | url=http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/2010_elections_senate_map.html | title=Battle for the Senate | publisher=RealClearPolitics | access-date=October 26, 2010}}

| {{USRaceRating|Safe|D}}

| October 26, 2010

Sabato's Crystal Ball{{Cite web | url=http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/category/2010-senate | title=2010 Senate Ratings | publisher=Sabato's Crystal Ball | access-date=October 26, 2010 | archive-date=October 28, 2010 | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20101028092918/http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/category/2010-senate/ | url-status=dead }}

| {{USRaceRating|Safe|D}}

| October 21, 2010

CQ Politics{{Cite web | url=http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=ratings-senate | title=Race Ratings Chart: Senate | publisher=CQ Politics | access-date=October 26, 2010 | url-status=dead | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20101028234525/http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=ratings-senate | archive-date=October 28, 2010 }}

| {{USRaceRating|Safe|D}}

| October 26, 2010

= Fundraising =

class="wikitable sortable"
Candidate (party)

! Receipts

! Disbursements

! Cash on hand

! Debt

{{Party shading/Democratic}} | Chuck Schumer (D)

| $17,302,006

| $11,824,587

| $16,048,482

| $0

{{Party shading/Republican}} | Jay Townsend (R)

| $197,365

| $180,693

| $16,671

| $105,854

colspan=5 | Source: Federal Election Commission{{cite web | url=http://www.fec.gov:80/DisclosureSearch/HSRefreshCandList.do?category=stateS_all&stateName=NY&election_yr=2010 | title=2010 House and Senate Campaign Finance for New York | publisher=fec.gov | access-date=July 25, 2010 }}{{Dead link|date=April 2019 |bot=InternetArchiveBot |fix-attempted=yes }}

= Polling =

class="wikitable" style="text-align:center"
valign=bottom

! Poll source

! {{Small|Date(s)
administered}}

! {{Small|Sample
size}}

! {{Small|Margin
of error}}

! Chuck
Schumer (D)

! Jay
Townsend (R)

! Other

! Undecided

Siena College[https://web.archive.org/web/20100703033944/http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/parents_and_community/community_page/sri/sny_poll/SNY0610%20Release.pdf Siena College]

| May 17–20, 2010

| 808

| ± 3.4%

| {{Party shading/Democratic}} | 63%

| 24%

| —

| 13%

Siena College

| June 7–9, 2010

| 808

| ± 3.4%

| {{Party shading/Democratic}} | 60%

| 26%

| —

| 14%

Rasmussen Reports[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/new_york/toplines/toplines_new_york_senate_june_16_2010 Rasmussen Reports]

| June 16, 2010

| 500

| ± 4.5%

| {{Party shading/Democratic}} | 54%

| 33%

| 6%

| 6%

Siena College

| July 12, 2010

| 808

| ± 3.4%

| {{Party shading/Democratic}} | 63%

| 26%

| —

| 13%

Rasmussen Reports[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_state_toplines/new_york/toplines_new_york_senate_race_schumer_september_16_2010 Rasmussen Reports]

| September 16, 2010

| 500

| ± 4.5%

| {{Party shading/Democratic}} | 58%

| 36%

| 3%

| 4%

Survey USA[http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=ddf78dd6-bef1-44e3-af71-225f2d2da637 Survey USA]

| September 20, 2010

| 1,000

| ± 4.2%

| {{Party shading/Democratic}} | 54%

| 33%

| 10%

| 3%

Angus Reid Public Opinion{{usurped|1=[https://web.archive.org/web/20110617031932/http://www.angus-reid.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/2010.10.08_NewYork_USA.pdf Angus Reid Public Opinion]}}

| October 7, 2010

| 500

| ± 4.5%

| {{Party shading/Democratic}} | 63%

| 27%

| 6%

| —

Rasmussen Reports

| October 19, 2010

| 500

| ± 4.5%

| {{Party shading/Democratic}} | 59%

| 31%

| 5%

| 5%

Angus Reid Public Opinion{{usurped|1=[https://web.archive.org/web/20101207020751/http://www.angus-reid.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/2010.10.31_NewYork_USA.pdf Angus Reid Public Opinion]}}

| October 28–29, 2010

| 541

| ± 4.2%

| {{Party shading/Democratic}} | 61%

| 35%

| 4%

| —

Siena College[https://web.archive.org/web/20101105000502/http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/Parents_and_Community/Community_Page/SRI/SNY_Poll/103110SNYPollReleaseFINAL.pdf Siena College]

| October 27–30, 2010

| 603

| ± 4.0%

| {{Party shading/Democratic}} | 64%

| 32%

| —

| 2%

= Results =

{{Election box begin

| title = United States Senate election in New York, 2010{{cite news| url=http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/results/new-york | work=The New York Times | title=New York Election Results}}{{cite news | url=http://www.elections.ny.gov/NYSBOE/elections/2010/general/2010USSenator6YrRecertified09122012.pdf | work=New York State BOE | title=NYS Board of Elections U.S. Senator Election Returns November 2, 2010 | access-date=January 28, 2017 | archive-date=December 30, 2016 | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20161230092440/http://www.elections.ny.gov/NYSBOE/elections/2010/general/2010USSenator6YrRecertified09122012.pdf | url-status=dead }}}}

{{Election box candidate with party link

| party = Democratic Party (United States)

| candidate = Chuck Schumer

| votes = 2,686,043

| percentage = 58.47%

| change =

}}

{{Election box candidate with party link

| party = Working Families Party

| candidate = Chuck Schumer

| votes = 183,672

| percentage = 4.00%

| change =

}}

{{Election box candidate with party link

| party = Independence Party of New York

| candidate = Chuck Schumer

| votes = 177,396

| percentage = 3.86%

| change =

}}

{{Election box candidate

| party = Total

| candidate = Chuck Schumer (incumbent)

| votes = 3,047,111

| percentage = 66.33%

| change = -5.89

}}

{{Election box candidate with party link

| party = Republican Party (United States)

| candidate = Jay Townsend

| votes = 1,238,947

| percentage = 26.97%

| change =

}}

{{Election box candidate with party link

| party = Conservative Party of New York State

| candidate = Jay Townsend

| votes = 240,777

| percentage = 5.24%

| change =

}}

{{Election box candidate

| party = Total

| candidate = Jay Townsend

| votes = 1,479,724

| percentage = 32.21%

| change = +8.02

}}

{{Election box candidate with party link

| party = Green Party (United States)

| candidate = Colia Clark

| votes = 42,340

| percentage = 0.92%

| change = +0.62

}}

{{Election box candidate with party link

| party = Libertarian Party (United States)

| candidate = Randy Credico

| votes = 24,863

| percentage = 0.54%

| change = +0.24

}}

{{Election box total

| votes = 4,594,038

| percentage = 100.00%

| change = N/A

}}

{{Election box hold with party link no swing

| winner = Democratic Party (United States)

}}

{{Election box end}}

==Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican==

Aftermath

Credico sued the New York State Board of Elections under the Equal Protection Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment, claiming unfair treatment regarding ballot access. Despite being nominated by both the Libertarian Party and the Anti-Prohibition Party, in most jurisdictions, he only appeared on the ballot once. On June 19, 2013, the Federal District Court for the Eastern District of New York ruled in favor of Credico.{{Cite web|url=http://www.ballot-access.org/?p=34517|title = New York Libertarian Party Wins Lawsuit Against Discriminatory Election Law | Ballot Access News| date=June 20, 2013 }} The New York State Board of Elections did not appeal this decision.{{Cite web|url=http://www.ballot-access.org/?p=34854|title = New York State Changes Mind, Won't Appeal Credico Decision | Ballot Access News| date=July 12, 2013 }}

References

{{Reflist}}