2016 Alabama Republican presidential primary

{{Infobox election

| election_name = 2016 Alabama Republican presidential primary

| country = Alabama

| type = presidential

| ongoing = no

| previous_election = 2012 Alabama Republican presidential primary

| previous_year = 2012

| election_date = {{Start date|2016|3|1}}

| next_election = 2020 Alabama Republican presidential primary

| next_year = 2020

| image1 = x160px

| candidate1 = Donald Trump

| home_state1 = New York

| delegate_count1 = 36

| popular_vote1 = 373,721

| percentage1 = 43.42%

| map_image = {{Switcher

| x275px

| Election results by county

| x275px

| Election results by congressional district

| default=1

}}

| map_size = 300px

| map_caption = {{legend|#283681|Donald Trump}}{{legend|#9ea8e1|30–40%}}{{legend|#7786d5|40–50%}}{{legend|#5063c9|50–60%}}

| color4 = c60e3b

| image4 = x160px

| candidate4 = Marco Rubio

| home_state4 = Florida

| delegate_count4 = 1

| popular_vote4 = 160,606

| percentage4 = 18.66%

| color5 = 99CCFF

| image5 = x160px

| candidate5 = Ben Carson

| home_state5 = Virginia

| delegate_count5 = 0

| popular_vote5 = 88,094

| percentage5 = 10.24%

| color1 = 283681

| color2 = d4aa00

| image2 = x160px

| candidate2 = Ted Cruz

| home_state2 = Texas

| delegate_count2 = 13

| popular_vote2 = 181,479

| percentage2 = 21.09%

| elected_members = AR

| outgoing_members = AK

| votes_for_election = 50 pledged delegates to the
2016 Republican National Convention

}}

The 2016 Alabama Republican presidential primary took place on March 1, 2016. This was the fifth primary held in the 2016 Republican primary. Donald Trump won the primary handily. The election was also held on Super Tuesday. Trump eventually won the Republican primary. He was elected President of the United States on November 8, 2016, against Hillary Clinton.

Ahead of the primary, Alabama was considered one of Donald Trump's strongest states.{{Cite news |last=Cox |first=Amanda |last2=Katz |first2=Josh |last3=Quealy |first3=Kevin |date=2016-03-01 |title=Who Will Win Super Tuesday? Live Estimates of Tonight’s Final Republican Delegate Count |language=en-US |work=The New York Times |url=https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/03/01/upshot/super-tuesday-live-republican-delegate-estimates.html,%20https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/03/01/upshot/super-tuesday-live-republican-delegate-estimates.html |access-date=2022-06-21 |issn=0362-4331}} Trump enjoyed the endorsement of Senator Jeff Sessions,{{Cite web|url=https://www.politico.com/story/2016/02/sen-jeff-sessions-endorses-trump-219939|title=Sen. Jeff Sessions endorses Trump|last=Stokols|first=Eli|website=POLITICO|language=en|access-date=2019-05-06}} who would later join his Department of Justice as Attorney General. Sessions was Trump's first endorsement in the U.S. Senate.

Candidates

Endorsements

{{Endorsements box|title=Donald Trump|list=;U.S. Senators

Jeff Sessions, U.S. Senator{{cite web |last1=Diamond |first1=Jeremy |title=Sen. Jeff Sessions endorses Donald Trump |url=https://www.cnn.com/2016/02/28/politics/donald-trump-jeff-sessions-endorsement/index.html |publisher=CNN |access-date=9 September 2023 |date=29 February 2016}}}}

Polling

=Aggregate polls=

class="wikitable sortable" style="text-align:center;font-size:90%;line-height:17px"

!Source of poll

aggregation

!Dates

administered

!Dates

updated

! class="unsortable" |Marco Rubio
{{nobold|Republican}}

! class="unsortable" |Donald Trump
{{nobold|Republican}}

! class="unsortable" |Ted Cruz
{{nobold|Republican}}

!Margin

RealClearPolitics[https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/al/alabama_republican_presidential_primary-5676.html RealClearPolitics]

|until March 1, 2016

|March 1, 2016

|20.3%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |38.0%

|14.7%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |{{hs|38.0}}Trump +17.7

FiveThirtyEight[https://web.archive.org/web/20160228015650/http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/alabama-republican/#polls%2Donly FiveThirtyEight]

|until March 1, 2016

|March 1, 2016

|20.4%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |43.4%

|17.2%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |{{hs|43.4}}Trump +23.0

class="wikitable"

! style="width:180px;" |Poll source

! style="width:135px;" |Date

! style="width:100px;" |1st

! style="width:100px;" |2nd

! style="width:100px;" |3rd

!Other

style="background:Moccasin;"

|Primary results[http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/AL-R Primary results]

|March 1, 2016

|Donald Trump43.42%

|Ted Cruz21.09%

|Marco Rubio18.66%

|Ben Carson 10.24%, John Kasich 4.43%, Jeb Bush 0.46%, Mike Huckabee 0.30%, Rand Paul 0.22%, Chris Christie 0.10%, Rick Santorum 0.07%, Carly Fiorina 0.06%, Lindsey Graham 0.03%

SurveyMonkey{{cite web |title=Trump's Lead Looks Steady in Run-Up to Super Tuesday |url=https://www.surveymonkey.com/blog/2016/02/29/trumps-lead-looks-solid-in-run-up-to-super-tuesday/ |access-date=1 March 2016 |work=SurveyMonkey |archive-date=March 12, 2016 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160312144610/https://www.surveymonkey.com/blog/2016/02/29/trumps-lead-looks-solid-in-run-up-to-super-tuesday/ |url-status=dead }}

Margin of error: ± ?% Sample size: 741

|February 22–29, 2016

| {{party shading/Republican}} |Donald Trump
47%

|Ted Cruz

18%

|Marco Rubio

14%

|Ben Carson 9%, John Kasich 3%, Undecided 9%

Monmouth University{{cite web |title=ALABAMA and OKLAHOMA: TRUMP LEADS IN BOTH CLINTON LEADS IN AL, SANDERS IN OK |url=http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32212254770/32212254991/32212254992/32212254994/32212254995/30064771087/493ca395-91a3-466e-83f0-8c006dbfaa1e.pdf |access-date=1 March 2016 |work=Monmouth University Poll |archive-date=March 5, 2016 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160305173227/http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32212254770/32212254991/32212254992/32212254994/32212254995/30064771087/493ca395-91a3-466e-83f0-8c006dbfaa1e.pdf |url-status=dead }}

Margin of error: ± 4.6%

Sample size: 450

|February 25–28, 2016

| {{party shading/Republican}} |Donald Trump
42%

|Marco Rubio

19%

|Ted Cruz

16%

|Ben Carson 11%, John Kasich 5%, Undecided 7%

Opinion Savvy{{cite web |title=Alabama Republican Presidential Primary Poll |url=http://opinionsavvy.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/OS-AL-2.26.16.pdf |access-date=27 February 2016 |work=Opinion Savvy}}

Margin of error: ± 4.6% Sample size: 460

|February 25–26, 2016

| {{party shading/Republican}} |Donald Trump
35.8%

|Marco Rubio

23.0%

|Ted Cruz

16.2%

|Ben Carson 10.5%, John Kasich 7.5%, Undecided 7.0%

AL.com{{cite web |title=Poll shows Trump and Cruz in lead in Alabama GOP primary race |url=http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2016/01/poll_shows_trump_and_cruz_in_l.html |access-date=23 January 2016 |work=AL.com}}

Margin of error: ± 4.5% Sample size: 500

|December 10–13, 2015

| {{party shading/Republican}} |Donald Trump
35%

|Ted Cruz

15%

|Marco Rubio

12%

|Ben Carson 12%, Jeb Bush 4%, Mike Huckabee 4%, Chris Christie 3%, John Kasich 2%, Carly Fiorina 1%, Rand Paul <1%, Rick Santorum <1%, Lindsey Graham <1%

Gravis Marketing[http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/current-alabama-polling-republican-primary/ Gravis Marketing]

Margin of error: ± 2%

Sample size: 1616

|September 3, 2015

| {{party shading/Republican}} |Donald Trump
38%

|Ben Carson

16.7%

|Jeb Bush

4.9%

|Ted Cruz 4.1%, Mike Huckabee 2.7%, Marco Rubio 2.3%, Carly Fiorina 2.3%, Rand Paul 1.5%, John Kasich 1.3%, Scott Walker 1.1%, Chris Christie 0.9%, Rick Santorum 0.4%, Rick Perry 0.3%, Bobby Jindal 0.3%, Lindsey Graham 0.1%, unsure 23.2%

News-5/Strategy Research[http://wkrg.com/2015/08/12/alabama-republicans-favor-trump-by-wide-margin/ News-5/Strategy Research] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150813073814/http://wkrg.com/2015/08/12/alabama-republicans-favor-trump-by-wide-margin/ |date=August 13, 2015 }}

Margin of error: ± 2%

Sample size: 3500

|August 11, 2015

| {{party shading/Republican}} |Donald Trump
30%

|Jeb Bush

15%

|Ben Carson

11%

|Marco Rubio 11%, Mike Huckabee 8%, Carly Fiorina 8%, Ted Cruz 7.5%, Scott Walker 3%, Other 5%

Opinion Savvy/Insider Advantage[http://opinionsavvy.com/2015/08/06/republican-presidential-primary-state-7-alabama/ Opinion Savvy/Insider Advantage]

Margin of error: ± 4.4%

Sample size: 481

|August 2–3, 2015

| {{party shading/Republican}} |Donald Trump
37.6%

|Ben Carson

14.6%

|Jeb Bush

11.8%

|Mike Huckabee 7.9%, Ted Cruz 4.5%, Scott Walker 3.8%, Chris Christie 3.2%, Marco Rubio 2.6%, Rand Paul 2.2%, Bobby Jindal 2.0%, John Kasich 1.4%, Rick Santorum 1.2%, Rick Perry 1.0%, Lindsey Graham 0.7%, Carly Fiorina 0.5%, George Pataki 0.0%, Someone else 1.9%, Undecided 3.1%

Cygnal[http://cygn.al/polls/alabama-primary-runoff-flash-poll-071014/ Cygnal]

Margin of error: ± 3.42%

Sample size: 821

|July 7–8, 2014

| {{party shading/Republican}} |Jeb Bush
19.8%

|Ben Carson

12.6%

|Rand Paul

10.5%

|Chris Christie 8.8%, Rick Perry 7.2%, Ted Cruz 5.6%, Rick Santorum 5.3%, Bobby Jindal 3.9%, Scott Walker 3.6%, Undecided 22.6%

Results

= Results by county =

class="wikitable sortable"

!County

!Trump

!Cruz

!Rubio

!Carson

!Kasich

!Uncommitted

!Bush

!Huckabee

!Other

Autauga

|44.57%

|20.48%

|14.75%

|14.57%

|3.48%

|1.01%

|0.47%

|0.26%

|0.40%

Baldwin

|46.87%

|17.02%

|19.26%

|8.39%

|5.93%

|1.38%

|0.45%

|N/A

|0.70%

Barbour

|50.16%

|17.77%

|14.62%

|12.26%

|3.6%

|0.61%

|0.3%

|0.26%

|0.41%

Bibb

|49.46%

|25.45%

|11.18%

|9.89%

|2.11%

|0.76%

|0.43%

|0.38%

|0.35%

Blount

|48.75%

|24.39%

|12.15%

|10.05%

|2.22%

|1.12%

|0.37%

|0.51%

|0.42%

Bullock

|56.50%

|16.97%

|11.55%

|8.48%

|4.15%

|0.54%

|1.26%

|0.18%

|0.36%

Butler

|53.78%

|16.68%

|13.37%

|11.77%

|2.69%

|0.53%

|0.66%

|N/A

|0.53%

Calhoun

|45.06%

|19.43%

|16.32%

|11.83%

|4.78%

|1.04%

|0.64%

|0.36%

|0.53%

Chambers

|47.52%

|20.11%

|13.04%

|13.07%

|3.68%

|0.96%

|0.79%

|0.26%

|0.57%

Cherokee

|52.10%

|17.23%

|15.19%

|10.01%

|2.83%

|1.29%

|0.37%

|0.54%

|0.43%

Chilton

|49.43%

|21.78%

|13.44%

|10.75%

|2.04%

|1.10%

|0.59%

|0.48%

|0.38%

Choctaw

|49.93%

|21.05%

|14.70%

|7.89%

|3.17%

|1.26%

|0.93%

|0.51%

|0.56%

Clarke

|50.22%

|19.28%

|17.48%

|8.92%

|2.71%

|0.41%

|0.33%

|0.39%

|0.26%

Clay

|47.48%

|20.89%

|12.49%

|12.25%

|3.09%

|1.60%

|1.06%

|0.52%

|0.62%

Cleburne

|48.30%

|21.13%

|13.62%

|9.95%

|2.41%

|1.64%

|1.55%

|0.57%

|0.82%

Coffee

|41.40%

|23.37%

|15.52%

|13.16%

|3.4%

|1.32%

|0.66%

|0.38%

|0.64%

Colbert

|47.45%

|19.62%

|17.68%

|10.89%

|3.05%

|0.54%

|N/A

|0.77%

Conecuh

|59.02%

|15.96%

|10.82%

|10.51%

|1.30%

|0.84%

|0.61%

|0.46%

Coosa

|55.32%

|19.56%

|10.81%

|9.02%

|2.96%

|0.99%

|0.45%

|0.27%

|0.63%

Covington

|48.14%

|18.51%

|13.33%

|3.37%

|1.56%

|0.81%

|0.43%

|0.51%

Crenshaw

|54.50%

|21.93%

|9.11%

|10.42%

|2.55%

|0.51%

|0.44%

|N/A

|0.55%

Cullman

|50.65%

|20.25%

|13.49%

|10.96%

|2.66%

|0.80

|0.37%

|0.31%

|0.51%

Dale

|45.28%

|21.90%

|13.02%

|12.54%

|3.63%

|1.76%

|0.61%

|0.66%

Dallas

|59.70%

|20.66%

|8.68%

|5.25%

|2.63%

|1.48%

|0.91%

|0.57%

|0.11%

DeKalb

|47.59%

|16.39%

|21.60%

|9.79%

|2.47%

|1.01%

|0.39%

|0.37%

Elmore

|47.49%

|18.35%

|13.43%

|14.90%

|3.58%

|0.91%

|0.54%

|0.29%

|0.51%

Escambia

|49.33%

|18.00%

|17.14%

|10.24%

|3.40%

|0.56%

|0.49%

|0.37%

|0.47%

Etowah

|46.09%

|20.75%

|16.79%

|11.19%

|3.27%

|0.74%

|0.41%

|0.28%

|0.49%

Fayette

|49.86%

|20.97%

|13.35%

|9.81%

|2.49%

|1.77%

|0.50%

|0.88%

|0.36%

Franklin

|51.47%

|21.29%

|13.42%

|9.26%

|2.55%

|0.72%

|0.33%

|0.48%

Geneva

|48.62%

|23.73%

|12.99%

|9.26%

|2.30%

|1.31%

|0.66%

|0.55%

|0.59%

Greene

|53.85%

|21.61%

|12.09%

|6.96%

|3.66%

|N/A

|0.73%

|0.37%

|0.74%

Hale

|52.07%

|24.98%

|11.74%

|7.77%

|2.12%

|0.53%

|N/A

|0.26%

|0.53%

Henry

|46.79%

|22.28%

|14.36%

|11.47%

|2.81%

|1.05%

|0.55%

|0.29%

|0.39%

Houston

|40.39%

|22.56%

|18.19%

|11.43%

|4.13%

|1.66%

|0.68%

|0.44%

|0.53%

Jackson

|49.89%

|16.37%

|16.90%

|10.82%

|2.83%

|2.00%

|0.37%

|0.44%

|0.40%

Jefferson

|35.02%

|23.82%

|24.67%

|8.92%

|6.09%

|0.55%

|0.36%

|N/A

|0.58%

Lamar

|50.43%

|19.26%

|12.97%

|9.57%

|2.87%

|2.25%

|0.78%

|1.03%

|0.83%

Lauderdale

|42.14%

|18.36%

|18.69%

|12.05%

|5.52%

|1.66%

|0.36%

|0.53%

|0.69%

Lawrence

|52.89%

|17.53%

|13.53%

|10.74%

|2.87%

|0.93%

|0.55%

|0.41%

|0.55%

Lee

|32.96%

|23.17%

|22.50%

|11.72%

|7.11%

|0.98%

|0.61%

|0.35%

|0.59%

Limestone

|43.03%

|21.39%

|18.85%

|10.87%

|3.90%

|0.89%

|0.37%

|N/A

|0.70%

Lowndes

|59.52%

|16.31%

|9.88%

|10.48%

|3.10%

|0.36%

|N/A

|0.36%

Macon

|47.91%

|19.78%

|12.38%

|12.79%

|5.25%

|0.67%

|0.54%

|0.13%

Madison

|36.18%

|20.69%

|26.03%

|9.58%

|5.94%

|0.59%

|0.31%

|N/A

|0.69%

Marengo

|53.95%

|21.17%

|11.79%

|7.89%

|2.41%

|1.21%

|0.93%

|0.28%

|0.37%

Marion

|52.92%

|19.15%

|13.91%

|8.89%

|2.52%

|0.77%

|0.56%

|0.60%

|0.68%

Marshall

|49.51%

|15.12%

|20.56%

|9.86%

|3.23%

|0.69%

|0.30%

|0.29%

|0.44%

Mobile

|45.22%

|21.41%

|18.93%

|7.71%

|4.59%

|0.93%

|0.49%

|N/A

|0.73%

Monroe

|52.06%

|17.42%

|15.78%

|9.87%

|2.86%

|0.50%

|0.53%

|0.45%

Montgomery

|39.42%

|17.59%

|20.85%

|12.65%

|7.30%

|0.83%

|0.64%

|N/A

|0.73%

Morgan

|44.59%

|19.73%

|18.31%

|11.40%

|4.53%

|0.50%

|0.25%

|0.27%

|0.42%

Perry

|51.73%

|32.80%

|8.80%

|4.00%

|0.53%

|1.33%

|0.53%

|0.27%

|N/A

Pickens

|44.0.5%

|25.74%

|13.81%

|11.31%

|2.54%

|0.63%

|0.70%

|0.98%

|0.23%

Pike

|46.02%

|20.15%

|14.79%

|12.81%

|3.16%

|1.23%

|0.79%

|0.40%

|0.66%

Randolph

|51.59%

|20.65%

|12.83%

|9.36%

|2.92%

|0.94%

|0.77%

|0.55%

|0.39%

Russell

|47.45%

|27.03%

|12.31%

|7.92%

|2.82%

|1.04%

|0.53%

|N/A

|0.90%

St. Clair

|44.60%

|26.88%

|13.42%

|10.86%

|2.69%

|0.53%

|0.41%

|N/A

|0.61%

Shelby

|34.35%

|26.37%

|22.95%

|9.42%

|5.03%

|0.83%

|0.37%

|N/A

|0.67%

Sumter

|59.36%

|15.90%

|13.78%

|7.42%

|1.41%

|0.35%

|1.41%

|0.35%

|N/A

Talladega

|51.05%

|19.98%

|13.56%

|9.54%

|3.80%

|0.71%

|0.59%

|0.35%

|0.40%

Tallapoosa

|52.78%

|15.01%

|14.60%

|11.40%

|4.20%

|0.53%

|0.62%

|0.27%

|0.58%

Tuscaloosa

|37.46%

|25.05%

|20.37%

|10.64%

|4.44%

|0.88%

|0.41%

|0.29%

|0.44%

Walker

|55.11%

|20.37%

|10.84%

|8.97%

|2.37%

|1.17%

|0.46%

|0.32%

|0.40%

Washington

|53.78%

|21.82%

|15.31%

|6.43%

|1.14%

|0.85%

|N/A

|0.68%

Wilcox

|54.36%

|21.59%

|12.12%

|8.33%

|2.27%

|N/A

|0.57%

|0.38%

Winston

|56.12%

|18.01%

|11.85%

|9.02%

|2.73%

|0.90%

|0.45%

|0.37%

|0.54%

TOTAL

|43.42%

|21.09%

|18.66%

|10.24%

|4.43%

|0.92%

|0.46%

|0.30%

|0.48%

colspan="10" |[https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=1&year=2016&f=0&off=0&elect=2 Source]

= By congressional district =

Trump won all 7 congressional districts.{{cite web|url=https://www.sos.alabama.gov/sites/default/files/voter-pdfs/2016/primaryResultsCertified-Republican-2016-03-11.pdf|title=Certification of Results|website=www.sos.alabama.com|access-date=October 14, 2023}}

class=wikitable

! District

! Trump

! Cruz

! Rubio

align=center

! {{ushr|Alabama|1|1st}}

| 46%

| 19%

align=center

! {{ushr|Alabama|2|2nd}}

| 46%

| 21%

| 15%

align=center

! {{ushr|Alabama|3|3rd}}

| 44%

| 21%

| 16%

align=center

! {{ushr|Alabama|4|4th}}

| 49%

| 19%

| 16%

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! {{ushr|Alabama|5|5th}}

| 40%

| 20%

| 22%

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! {{ushr|Alabama|6|6th}}

| 37%

| 25%

| 22%

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! {{ushr|Alabama|7|7th}}

| 43%

| 23%

| 18%

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Analysis

According to Pew Research, Alabama's Republican electorate has the second-highest proportion of white Evangelicals of any Super Tuesday state, at 63% of Republican voters.{{Cite web |last=Lipka |first=Michael |title=A closer look at religion in the Super Tuesday states |url=https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/02/25/a-closer-look-at-religion-in-the-super-tuesday-states/ |access-date=2022-06-11 |website=Pew Research Center |language=en-US}}

Donald Trump won the Alabama primary in a landslide due to support from Evangelical primary voters. Trump carried 43% of Evangelicals compared to 22% for Ted Cruz, according to exit polls by Edison Research.{{Cite web |title=2016 Election Center |url=https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/primaries/polls/al/Rep |access-date=2022-06-11 |website=CNN |language=en}} Many pundits were perplexed by Trump's dominance among culturally conservative Southern whites who were expected to view him as immoral, but he benefitted from voters' racial, cultural, and economic angst that mattered more than shared values.{{Cite journal |last=Maxwell |first=Angie |date=2020-12-30 |title=Why Trump Became a ‘Confederate’ President |url=https://www.degruyter.com/document/doi/10.1515/for-2020-2107/html?lang=en |journal=The Forum |language=en |volume=18 |issue=4 |pages=493–529 |doi=10.1515/for-2020-2107 |issn=1540-8884}}

References

Alabama

Republican presidential primary

Category:Alabama Republican primaries

Category:March 2016 in the United States