2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Nebraska#District 2

{{Short description|none}}

{{Use mdy dates|date=September 2023}}

{{Infobox election

| election_name = 2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Nebraska

| country = Nebraska

| type = legislative

| ongoing = no

| previous_election = 2016 United States House of Representatives elections in Nebraska

| previous_year = 2016

| next_election = 2020 United States House of Representatives elections in Nebraska

| next_year = 2020

| seats_for_election = All 3 Nebraska seats to the United States House of Representatives

| election_date = {{Start date|2018|11|06}}

| party1 = Republican Party (United States)

| last_election1 = 3

| seats1 = 3

| seat_change1 = {{steady}}

| popular_vote1 = 432,077

| percentage1 = 62.03%

| swing1 = {{decrease}} 8.71%

| party2 = Democratic Party (United States)

| last_election2 = 0

| seats2 = 0

| seat_change2 = {{steady}}

| popular_vote2 = 264,493

| percentage2 = 37.97%

| swing2 = {{increase}} 9.93%

| map_image = {{switcher |300px |District results |300px |County results}}

| map_caption = {{col-begin}}

{{col-2}}

Republican

{{legend|#e27f90|50–60%}}

{{legend|#cc2f4a|60–70%}}

{{legend|#D40000|70–80%}}

{{legend|#aa0000|80–90%}}

{{legend|#800000|>90%}}

{{col-2}}

Democratic

{{legend|#86b6f2|50–60%}}

{{col-end}}

}}

The 2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Nebraska were held on Tuesday, November 6, 2018, to elect the three U.S. representatives from the U.S. state of Nebraska, one from each of the state's three congressional districts. Primaries were held on May 15, 2018. The elections and primaries coincided with the elections and primaries of other federal and state offices.

The 2018 elections saw all three incumbents elected (all from the Republican Party); thus the GOP retained control of all three House seats.

{{Toclimit|limit=2}}

Overview

{{bar box

| title=Popular vote

| titlebar=#ddd

| width=600px

| barwidth=410px

| bars=

{{bar percent|Republican|{{party color|Republican Party (United States)}}|62.03}}

{{bar percent|Democratic|{{party color|Democratic Party (United States)}}|37.97}}

}}

{{bar box

| title=House seats

| titlebar=#ddd

| width=600px

| barwidth=410px

| bars=

{{bar percent|Republican|{{party color|Republican Party (United States)}}|100}}

{{bar percent|Democratic|{{party color|Democratic Party (United States)}}|0}}

}}

=District=

Results of the 2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Nebraska by district:{{cite web|last=Johnson|first=Cheryl L.|title=Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 6, 2018|url=http://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/Election-Statistics/|publisher=Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives|access-date=2019-04-27|date=2019-02-28|df=mdy-all}}

class="wikitable plainrowheaders sortable" style="font-size:100%; text-align:right;"

! scope=col rowspan=3|District

! scope=col colspan=2|Republican

! scope=col colspan=2|Democratic

! scope=col colspan=2|Others

! scope=col colspan=2|Total

! scope=col rowspan=3|Result

scope=col colspan=2 style="background:{{party color|Republican Party (United States)}}"|scope=col colspan=2 style="background:{{party color|Democratic Party (United States)}}"|scope=col colspan=2|scope=col colspan=2|
scope=col data-sort-type="number"|Votesscope=col data-sort-type="number"|%scope=col data-sort-type="number"|Votesscope=col data-sort-type="number"|%scope=col data-sort-type="number"|Votesscope=col data-sort-type="number"|%scope=col data-sort-type="number"|Votesscope=col data-sort-type="number"|%
{{Party shading/Republican}}

| align=left|District 1

141,71260.36%93,06939.64%00.00%234,781100%align=left|Republican hold
{{Party shading/Republican}}

| align=left|District 2

126,71551.00%121,77049.00%00.00%248,485100%align=left|Republican hold
{{Party shading/Republican}}

| align=left|District 3

163,65076.72%49,65423.28%00.00%213,304100%align=left|Republican hold
class="sortbottom" style="font-weight:bold"

| align=left|Total

432,07762.56%264,49335.19%00.00%696,570100%

{{ElectionsNE}}

District 1

{{Infobox election

| election_name = 2018 Nebraska's 1st congressional district election

| country = Nebraska

| type = presidential

| ongoing = no

| previous_election = 2016 United States House of Representatives elections in Nebraska#District 1

| previous_year = 2016

| next_election = 2020 United States House of Representatives elections in Nebraska#District 1

| next_year = 2020

| image_size = x150px

| image1 = File:Jeff Fortenberry Official Portrait 115th Congress (cropped).jpg

| nominee1 = Jeff Fortenberry

| party1 = Republican Party (United States)

| popular_vote1 = 141,712

| percentage1 = 60.4%

| image2 = File:3x4.svg

| nominee2 = Jessica McClure

| party2 = Democratic Party (United States)

| popular_vote2 = 93,069

| percentage2 = 39.6%

| map_image = File:2018 NE-1 Election Results by Precinct.svg

| map_size =

| map_caption = Results by precinct:
Fortenberry: {{legend0|#E27F7F|50–60%}} {{legend0|#d75d5d|60–70%}} {{legend0|#D72F30|70–80%}} {{legend0|#C21B18|80–90%}} {{legend0|#A80000|>90%}}
McClure: {{legend0|#7996e2|50–60%}} {{legend0|#6674de|60–70%}} {{legend0|#584cde|70–80%}} {{legend0|#3933e5|80–90%}} {{legend0|#0D0596|>90%}}
{{legend0|#808080|No votes}}

| title = U.S. Representative

| before_election = Jeff Fortenberry

| before_party = Republican Party (United States)

| after_election = Jeff Fortenberry

| after_party = Republican Party (United States)

}}

{{see also|Nebraska's 1st congressional district}}

The incumbent was Republican Jeff Fortenberry, who had represented the district since 2005. He was re-elected with 69% of the vote in 2016.

=Democratic primary=

  • Dennis Crawford, attorney{{Cite news|url=http://journalstar.com/news/state-and-regional/federal-politics/fortenberry-challengers-hope-to-ride-a-democratic-wave/article_5732cd2c-ed04-591c-b824-5a2a2bf7a24e.html|title=Fortenberry challengers hope to ride a Democratic wave|last=Walton|first=Don|work=JournalStar.com|access-date=2018-04-15|language=en}}
  • Jessica McClure, chemist{{Cite news|url=http://www.klkntv.com/story/37640152/jessica-mcclure-running-for-first-district-in-nebraska|title=Jessica McClure Running for First District in Nebraska|last=Georlett|first=Pierce|access-date=2018-04-15|language=en}}

==Primary results==

{{Election box begin no change

| title = Democratic primary results{{cite news|url=https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/05/15/us/elections/results-nebraska-primary-elections.html |title=Nebraska Primary Election Results|work=The New York Times|date=15 May 2018 |access-date=May 16, 2018 |last1=Almukhtar |first1=Sarah |last2=Bloch |first2=Matthew |last3=Lee |first3=Jasmine C. }}

}}

{{Election box winning candidate with party link no change

| candidate = Jessica McClure

| party = Democratic Party (United States)

| votes = 22,199

| percentage = 66.1

}}

{{Election box candidate with party link no change

| candidate = Dennis P. Crawford

| party = Democratic Party (United States)

| votes = 11,386

| percentage = 33.9

}}

{{Election box total no change

| votes = 33,585

| percentage = 100.0

}}

{{Election box end}}

=Republican primary=

==Primary results==

{{Election box begin no change

| title = Republican primary results{{cite web|url=http://electionresults.sos.ne.gov/resultsSW.aspx?text=Race&type=FED&map=CTY |title=Nebraska Secretary of State Election Results|access-date=May 16, 2018}}

}}

{{Election box winning candidate with party link no change

| candidate = Jeff Fortenberry (incumbent)

| party = Republican Party (United States)

| votes = 51,809

| percentage = 100.0

}}

{{Election box total no change

| votes = 51,809

| percentage = 100.0

}}

{{Election box end}}

=General election=

==Predictions==

class="wikitable" style="text-align:center"

!Source

!Ranking

!As of

align=left | The Cook Political Report{{Cite web | url=https://cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings/187562 | title=2018 House Race Ratings | website=Cook Political Report | access-date=October 30, 2018}}

|{{USRaceRating|Safe|R}}

|November 5, 2018

align=left | Inside Elections{{Cite web | title=2018 House Ratings | url=http://www.insideelections.com/ratings/house/2018-house-ratings-november-1-2018 | publisher=The Rothenberg Political Report | access-date=November 5, 2018}}

|{{USRaceRating|Safe|R}}

|November 5, 2018

align=left | Sabato's Crystal Ball{{Cite web | title=2018 House | url=http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2018-house | publisher=Sabato's Crystal Ball | access-date=November 5, 2018}}

|{{USRaceRating|Safe|R}}

|November 5, 2018

align="left" |RCP{{cite news | title=Battle for the House 2018 | url=https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/2018_elections_house_map.html | publisher=RCP | accessdate=November 5, 2018}}

|{{USRaceRating|Safe|R}}

|November 5, 2018

align="left" |Daily Kos{{cite web | url=https://elections.dailykos.com/app/elections/2018/office/house | title=Daily Kos Elections 2018 race ratings | website=Daily Kos | accessdate=November 5, 2018 }}{{Dead link|date=September 2019 |bot=InternetArchiveBot |fix-attempted=yes }}

|{{USRaceRating|Safe|R}}

|November 5, 2018

align="left" |538{{cite web | last1=Silver | first1=Nate | title=2018 House Forecast | url=https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house | archive-url=https://archive.today/20180909024303/https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house | url-status=dead | archive-date=September 9, 2018 | website=FiveThirtyEight | accessdate=November 6, 2018 | date=August 16, 2018}}

|{{USRaceRating|Safe|R}}

|November 7, 2018

==Polling==

class="wikitable"
valign= bottom

! Poll source

! Date(s)
administered

! Sample
size

! Margin
of error

! style="width:100px;"| Jeff
Fortenberry (R)

! style="width:100px;"| Jessica
McClure (D)

! Undecided

Change Research (D)[https://twitter.com/ChangePolls/status/1055577115289038848 Change Research (D)]

| align=center| October 24–25, 2018

| align=center| 742

| align=center| –

| {{party shading/Republican}} align=center| 55%

| align=center| 39%

| align=center| –

==Results==

{{Election box begin no change

| title = Nebraska's 1st congressional district, 2018

}}

{{Election box winning candidate with party link no change

| candidate = Jeff Fortenberry (incumbent)

| party = Republican Party (United States)

| votes = 141,712

| percentage = 60.4

}}

{{Election box candidate with party link no change

| candidate = Jessica McClure

| party = Democratic Party (United States)

| votes = 93,069

| percentage = 39.6

}}

{{Election box total no change

| votes = 234,781

| percentage = 100.0

}}

{{Election box hold with party link no change

| winner = Republican Party (United States)

}}

{{Election box end}}

District 2

{{Infobox election

| election_name = 2018 Nebraska's 2nd congressional district election

| country = Nebraska

| type = presidential

| ongoing = no

| previous_election = 2016 United States House of Representatives elections in Nebraska#District 2

| previous_year = 2016

| next_election = 2020 United States House of Representatives elections in Nebraska#District 2

| next_year = 2020

| image_size = x150px

| image1 = File:Donald Bacon Official House Photo (cropped).jpg

| nominee1 = Don Bacon

| party1 = Republican Party (United States)

| popular_vote1 = 126,715

| percentage1 = 51.0%

| image2 = File:3x4.svg

| nominee2 = Kara Eastman

| party2 = Democratic Party (United States)

| popular_vote2 = 121,770

| percentage2 = 49.0%

| map_image = NE 2nd 2018.svg

| map_size = 250px

| map_caption = Bacon: {{legend0|#e55651|60–70%}}
Eastman: {{legend0|#8da9e2|50–60%}}

| title = U.S. Representative

| before_election = Don Bacon

| before_party = Republican Party (United States)

| after_election = Don Bacon

| after_party = Republican Party (United States)

}}

{{see also|Nebraska's 2nd congressional district}}

The incumbent was Republican Don Bacon, who had represented the district since 2017. He flipped the district and was elected with 49% of the vote in 2016.

=Democratic primary=

  • Brad Ashford, former U.S. representative
  • Kara Eastman, founder of Omaha Healthy Kids Alliance and vice chair of the Metropolitan Community College Board of Governors{{Cite news|url=http://www.omaha.com/news/politics/nonprofit-executive-kara-eastman-will-seek-democratic-nomination-in-nd/article_a42d10af-ce5a-5481-92f3-f088a4428736.html|title=Nonprofit executive Kara Eastman will seek Democratic nomination in 2nd Congressional District|first=Robynn|last=Tysver|work=Omaha.com|access-date=2018-04-15|language=en}}

= Endorsements =

{{Endorsements box|title=Kara Eastman|list=

Individuals

  • Anne Boyle, former Nebraska state public service commissioner
  • Ben Gray, Omaha city councilman
  • Crystal Rhoades, Nebraska state public service commissioner
  • Tony Vargas, Nebraska state senator
  • Justin Wayne, Nebraska state senator

Organizations

Parties

  • Cannabis Rights Party of Nebraska{{cite web|url=https://www.facebook.com/MJPNE/photos/a.126222574112942/2740674446001062/?type=3&theater|title=Here are our 2020 Primary Endorsements|author=Cannabis Rights Party of Nebraska|via=Facebook|date=March 19, 2020|access-date=March 26, 2020}}

}}

=Debate=

class="wikitable" style="text-align:center;"

|+ 2018 Nebraska's 2nd congressional district democratic primary debate

scope="col" | {{abbr|No.|Number}}

! scope="col" | Date

! scope="col" | Host

! scope="col" | Moderator

! scope="col" | Link

! scope="col"| Democratic

! scope="col"| Democratic

colspan="5" rowspan="2" |Key:
{{Colors|black|#90ff90| P }} Participant  {{Colors|black|#FFFFDD| A }} Absent  {{Colors|black|#ff9090| N }} Not invited  {{Colors|black|#CCFFCC| I }} Invited {{color box|#f0e68c|W}} Withdrawn

! scope="col" style="background:{{party color|Democratic Party (US)}}"|

! scope="col" style="background:{{party color|Democratic Party (US)}}"|

scope="col" | Brad Ashford

! scope="col" | Kara Eastman

1

| style="white-space:nowrap;" | Apr. 24, 2018

| style="white-space:nowrap;" | KMTV-TV
Omaha World-Herald

| style="white-space:nowrap;" | Craig Nigrelli
Mike'l Severe

| style="white-space:nowrap;" |[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4bvcgc_EiWE YouTube]

| {{Yes|P}}

| {{Yes|P}}

=Primary results=

{{Election box begin no change

| title = Democratic primary results

}}

{{Election box winning candidate with party link no change

| candidate = Kara Eastman

| party = Democratic Party (United States)

| votes = 21,357

| percentage = 51.64

}}

{{Election box candidate with party link no change

| candidate = Brad Ashford

| party = Democratic Party (United States)

| votes = 19,998

| percentage = 48.36

}}

{{Election box total no change

| votes = 41,355

| percentage = 100.00

}}

{{Election box end}}

=Republican primary=

==Primary results==

{{Election box begin no change

| title = Republican primary results

}}

{{Election box winning candidate with party link no change

| candidate = Don Bacon (incumbent)

| party = Republican Party (United States)

| votes = 33,852

| percentage = 100.0

}}

{{Election box total no change

| votes = 33,852

| percentage = 100.0

}}

{{Election box end}}

=General election=

==Predictions==

class="wikitable" style="text-align:center"

!Source

!Ranking

!As of

align=left | The Cook Political Report

|{{USRaceRating|Lean|R}}

|November 5, 2018

align=left | Inside Elections

|{{USRaceRating|Lean|R}}

|November 5, 2018

align=left | Sabato's Crystal Ball

|{{USRaceRating|Lean|R}}

|November 5, 2018

align="left" |RCP

|{{USRaceRating|Lean|R}}

|November 5, 2018

align="left" |Daily Kos

|{{USRaceRating|Likely|R}}

|November 5, 2018

align="left" |538

|{{USRaceRating|Tossup}}

|November 7, 2018

==Polling==

class="wikitable"
valign= bottom

! Poll source

! Date(s)
administered

! Sample
size

! Margin
of error

! style="width:100px;"| Don
Bacon (R)

! style="width:100px;"| Kara
Eastman (D)

! Undecided

DFM Research[http://www.dfmresearch.com/uploads/Nebraska_2nd_DISTRICT_Survey__2018_September_TOPLINE.pdf DFM Research]

| align=center| October 23–25, 2018

| align=center| 350

| align=center| ± 5.2%

| {{party shading/Republican}} align=center| 52%

| align=center| 45%

| align=center| 3%

Meeting Street Research (R-Bacon)[https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/republican-poll-shows-rep-don-bacon-9-point-lead-nebraska-house-race Meeting Street Research (R-Bacon)]

| align=center| October 1–2, 2018

| align=center| 400

| align=center| ± 4.9%

| {{party shading/Republican}} align=center| 49%

| align=center| 40%

| align=center| 9%

GQR Research (D-Eastman)[https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/nebraska-democrat-kara-eastman-within-striking-distance-rep-don-bacon-poll-finds GQR Research (D-Eastman)]

| align=center| September 27–30, 2018

| align=center| 400

| align=center| ± 4.9%

| {{party shading/Republican}} align=center| 49%

| align=center| 45%

| align=center| 6%

NYT Upshot/Siena College[https://scri.siena.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/NE02P1release_final4065.pdf NYT Upshot/Siena College]

| align=center| September 23–26, 2018

| align=center| 512

| align=center| ± 4.5%

| {{party shading/Republican}} align=center| 51%

| align=center| 42%

| align=center| 7%

==Results==

{{Election box begin no change

| title = Nebraska's 2nd congressional district, 2018

}}

{{Election box winning candidate with party link no change

| candidate = Don Bacon (incumbent)

| party = Republican Party (United States)

| votes = 126,715

| percentage = 51.0

}}

{{Election box candidate with party link no change

| candidate = Kara Eastman

| party = Democratic Party (United States)

| votes = 121,770

| percentage = 49.0

}}

{{Election box total no change

| votes = 248,485

| percentage = 100.0

}}

{{Election box hold with party link no change

| winner = Republican Party (United States)

}}

{{Election box end}}

District 3

{{Infobox election

| election_name = 2018 Nebraska's 3rd congressional district election

| country = Nebraska

| type = presidential

| ongoing = no

| previous_election = 2016 United States House of Representatives elections in Nebraska#District 3

| previous_year = 2016

| next_election = 2020 United States House of Representatives elections in Nebraska#District 3

| next_year = 2020

| image_size = x150px

| image1 = File:Adrian Smith 116th Congress.jpg

| nominee1 = Adrian Smith

| party1 = Republican Party (United States)

| popular_vote1 = 163,650

| percentage1 = 76.7%

| image2 = File:3x4.svg

| nominee2 = Paul Theobald

| party2 = Democratic Party (United States)

| popular_vote2 = 49,654

| percentage2 = 23.3%

| map_image = 2018 NE-03 election by precinct.svg

| map_size =

| map_caption = Results by precinct
Smith: {{legend0|#ed8883|50–60%}} {{legend0|#e55751|60–70%}} {{legend0|#d02823|70–80%}} {{legend0|#b00000|80–90%}} {{legend0|#850000|>90%}}
Theobald: {{legend0|#8da9e2|50–60%}} {{legend0|#678cd7|60–70%}}

| title = U.S. Representative

| before_election = Adrian Smith

| before_party = Republican Party (United States)

| after_election = Adrian Smith

| after_party = Republican Party (United States)

}}

{{see also|Nebraska's 3rd congressional district}}

The incumbent was Republican Adrian Smith, who had represented the district since 2007. He was re-elected unopposed in 2016.

=Democratic primary=

  • Paul Theobald, educator and author{{Cite news|url=http://www.kearneyhub.com/news/local/democrat-candidate-paul-theobald-trump-setting-table-for-gop-loss/article_a7505ed8-32cd-11e8-becf-cb8ee624c068.html|title=Democrat candidate Paul Theobald: Trump setting table for GOP loss in 3rd District|first=MIKE|last=KONZ|work=Kearney Hub|access-date=2018-04-15|language=en}}

==Primary results==

{{Election box begin no change

| title = Democratic primary results

}}

{{Election box winning candidate with party link no change

| candidate = Paul Theobald

| party = Democratic Party (United States)

| votes = 16,395

| percentage = 100.0

}}

{{Election box total no change

| votes = 16,395

| percentage = 100.0

}}

{{Election box end}}

=Republican primary=

  • Larry Bolinger,[https://LarryBolinger.com Larry Bolinger] author{{Cite news|url=http://www.starherald.com/news/local_news/alliance-man-runs-for-congress-challenging-adrian-smith/article_83648431-4338-53d2-a296-0f577f3c0ba5.html|title=Alliance man runs for Congress, challenging Adrian Smith|last=Star-Herald|first=JERRY PURVIS|work=starherald.com|access-date=2018-04-15|language=en}}
  • Arron Kowalski{{Cite news|url=http://nebraska.tv/news/election/meet-the-candidate-third-congressional-district-arron-kowalski|title=Meet the candidate: Third Congressional District Arron Kowalski|last=KHGI|work=KHGI|access-date=2018-04-16|language=en-US}}
  • Kirk Penner, businessman{{Cite news|url=http://www.kearneyhub.com/news/local/congressional-candidate-kirk-penner-has-main-street-mindset/article_70fd5212-0b65-11e8-a9c2-6fc280e3aef5.html|title=Congressional candidate Kirk Penner has Main Street mindset|first=ERIKA|last=PRITCHARD|work=Kearney Hub|access-date=2018-04-16|language=en}}
  • Adrian Smith, incumbent

==Primary results==

{{Election box begin no change

| title = Republican primary results

}}

{{Election box winning candidate with party link no change

| candidate = Adrian Smith (incumbent)

| party = Republican Party (United States)

| votes = 50,878

| percentage = 65.74

}}

{{Election box candidate with party link no change

| candidate = Kirk Penner

| party = Republican Party (United States)

| votes = 20,116

| percentage = 25.99

}}

{{Election box candidate with party link no change

| candidate = Arron Kowalski

| party = Republican Party (United States)

| votes = 4,461

| percentage = 5.76

}}

{{Election box candidate with party link no change

| candidate = Larry Lee Scott Bolinger

| party = Republican Party (United States)

| votes = 1,935

| percentage = 2.50

}}

{{Election box total no change

| votes = 77,390

| percentage = 100.00

}}

{{Election box end}}

=General election=

==Predictions==

class="wikitable" style="text-align:center"

!Source

!Ranking

!As of

align=left | The Cook Political Report

|{{USRaceRating|Safe|R}}

|November 5, 2018

align=left | Inside Elections

|{{USRaceRating|Safe|R}}

|November 5, 2018

align=left | Sabato's Crystal Ball

|{{USRaceRating|Safe|R}}

|November 5, 2018

align="left" |RCP

|{{USRaceRating|Safe|R}}

|November 5, 2018

align="left" |Daily Kos

|{{USRaceRating|Safe|R}}

|November 5, 2018

align="left" |538

|{{USRaceRating|Safe|R}}

|November 7, 2018

==Results==

{{Election box begin no change

| title = Nebraska's 3rd congressional district, 2018

}}

{{Election box winning candidate with party link no change

| candidate = Adrian Smith (incumbent)

| party = Republican Party (United States)

| votes = 163,650

| percentage = 76.7

}}

{{Election box candidate with party link no change

| candidate = Paul Theobald

| party = Democratic Party (United States)

| votes = 49,654

| percentage = 23.3

}}

{{Election box total no change

| votes = 213,304

| percentage = 100.0

}}

{{Election box hold with party link no change

| winner = Republican Party (United States)

}}

{{Election box end}}

References

{{reflist|30em}}