2019 Brecon and Radnorshire by-election

Richard Livsey, a Liberal standing for the SDP–Liberal Alliance, won the seat in the 1985 Brecon and Radnor by-election and retained it in 1987. He lost it narrowly as a Liberal Democrat MP to the Conservative Jonathan Evans in the 1992 general election. The Liberal Democrats regained the seat in the 1997 election and held it until 2015, when Chris Davies won it for the Conservatives.{{cite web |url=https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/conservative-party/news/104734/convicted-tory-mp-chris-davies-booted |title=Convicted Tory MP Chris Davies booted from Brecon and Radnorshire seat after recall petition passes |date=21 June 2019 |website=PoliticsHome.com}} Davies retained his seat at the 2017 general election with an increased majority of 8,038 over the Liberal Democrat candidate.

A seat with the same name and boundaries exists in the Welsh Assembly. At the time of the by-election, the seat had been represented by Liberal Democrat Kirsty Williams continuously from its creation in 1999.{{Cite news|url=https://www.bbc.com/news/election-2016-wales-36230820|title=Lib Dem leader Williams steps down|work=BBC News |date=6 May 2016}}

In February 2019, Davies was charged with claiming false expenses, pursuant to the Parliamentary Standards Act 2009.[https://www.standard.co.uk/news/crime/conservative-mp-christopher-davies-charged-over-false-expenses-claims-a4072866.html Conservative MP Christopher Davies charged over 'false expenses claims'] Evening Standard He pleaded guilty in March{{cite news |url=https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-politics-47694734 |title=False expenses claim MP could lose seat |date=2019-03-25 |work=BBC News |access-date=2019-03-26 |language=en-GB}}[https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/mar/22/tory-mp-christopher-davies-admits-expenses-fraud Tory MP Christopher Davies admits expenses fraud] The Guardian and, in April, was sentenced to a community order of 50 hours unpaid work and a £1,500 fine.{{cite news |url=https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-politics-48038005 |title=Recall petition for convicted MP confirmed |date=24 April 2019 |work=BBC News}} Under the Recall of MPs Act 2015, this conviction triggered a recall petition.{{cite news |url=https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-politics-48200335 |title=Convicted Tory MP's recall petition opens |date=2019-05-09 |work=BBC News |access-date=2019-05-09 |language=en-GB}} After receiving notice from the sentencing court, the Speaker of the House of Commons indicated on 24 April 2019 that he would be instructing the constituency's petition officer to begin the recall process. The petition opened on 9 May and remained open for signatures until 20 June 2019. It required 5,303 signatures (10% of eligible voters) to be successful.{{cite web |url=http://www.brecon-radnor.co.uk/article.cfm?id=110751&headline=These%20are%20the%20details%20of%20the%20Chris%20Davies%20recall%20petition§ionIs=news&searchyear=2019 |title=These are the details of the Chris Davies recall petition |website=Brecon & Radnor Express |date=26 April 2019 |language=en |access-date=2019-04-29}}{{cite news |url=https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-politics-48059167 |title=MP's recall petition opens on 9 May |date=2019-04-25 |work=BBC News |access-date=2019-04-29 |language=en-GB}} The Conservative Party were officially registered as campaigners for the petition's failure,{{cite web|url=https://en.powys.gov.uk/media/9537/Accreditation-Notice---Conservative-Party---30.4.19/pdf/Accreditation_Notice_-_Conservative_Party_-_30.4.19.pdf?m=1556787750430|title=ACCREDITATION NOTICE FOR A REGISTERED PARTY|website=powys.gov.uk|date=30 April 2019|access-date=4 July 2019|archive-date=11 September 2020|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200911162554/https://en.powys.gov.uk/media/9537/Accreditation-Notice---Conservative-Party---30.4.19/pdf/Accreditation_Notice_-_Conservative_Party_-_30.4.19.pdf?m=1556787750430|url-status=dead}} while the Liberal Democrats, Labour and Plaid Cymru campaigned for its success.{{cite web|url=https://en.powys.gov.uk/media/9554/Accreditation-Notice---Liberal-Democrats/pdf/Accreditation_Notice_-_Liberal_Democrats.pdf|title=ACCREDITATION NOTICE FOR A REGISTERED PARTY|website=powys.gov.uk|date=8 May 2019|access-date=4 July 2019|archive-date=28 July 2019|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190728221608/https://en.powys.gov.uk/media/9554/Accreditation-Notice---Liberal-Democrats/pdf/Accreditation_Notice_-_Liberal_Democrats.pdf|url-status=dead}}{{cite web|url=https://en.powys.gov.uk/media/9572/Accreditation-Notice---Plaid-Cymru/pdf/PC_Accreditation_Notice_for_a_registered_Party.pdf|title=ACCREDITATION NOTICE FOR A REGISTERED PARTY|website=powys.gov.uk|date=9 May 2019|access-date=4 July 2019|archive-date=28 July 2019|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190728221931/https://en.powys.gov.uk/media/9572/Accreditation-Notice---Plaid-Cymru/pdf/PC_Accreditation_Notice_for_a_registered_Party.pdf|url-status=dead}}{{Cite web|url=http://electionleaflets.org/leaflets/16856/|title=Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales leaflet|website=ElectionLeaflets.org}}

This petition was successful, receiving 10,005 signatures (19%), significantly in excess of the 10% of constituents required.{{cite news |url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-48720176 |title=Welsh Tory MP unseated after petition |date=21 June 2019 |work=BBC News |access-date=21 June 2019}} Davies was removed from the seat,{{cite web |last1=Castle |first1=Stephen |title=Boris Johnson Loses First Election Test Against an Anti-Brexit Alliance |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/01/world/europe/boris-johnson-special-election.html |work=The New York Times |access-date=2 August 2019 |date=August 1, 2019}} creating a vacancy to be filled at a by-election, in which he was permitted to stand.

The by-election occurred shortly after Boris Johnson won the 2019 Conservative leadership election and became Prime Minister,{{cite web |url=https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/06/the-brecon-by-election-could-be-the-first-real-test-for-boris-johnson/ |title=The Brecon by-election could be the first real test for Boris Johnson |date=2019-06-21 |website=Coffee House |language=en-US |access-date=2019-06-24}} as well as Jo Swinson taking office after winning the 2019 Liberal Democrats leadership election. The result reduced the working majority of the government (including confidence and supply from the DUP) in the House of Commons to one.{{cite news |url=https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2019/07/what-governments-working-majority-parliament |title=What is the government's working majority in parliament? |date=2019-07-22 |work=New Statesman |language=en |access-date=2019-07-23}}{{Efn|Calculations of the government's majority vary slightly. This value considers Charlie Elphicke, who had the Conservative whip withdrawn on 22 July 2019, to be an opposition MP|name=|group=}} This makes him the PM to serve the shortest period before losing a by-election, just 10 days.

The by-election came against the continuing backdrop of Brexit. The constituency lies within the county of Powys, where, at the 2019 European Parliament election, the Brexit Party gained the most votes.{{cite news |url=https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-politics-48720176 |title=Petition unseats Tory MP Chris Davies |work=BBC News |date=21 June 2019 }}

It was the first Westminster by-election to take place in the month of August since the second Fermanagh and South Tyrone by-election of 1981. It is to date the last by-election to be held in Wales.

The by-election was administered by Powys County Council. The deadline for candidate nominations was 5 July, by which time a total of six candidates had registered.{{Cite web|url=https://en.powys.gov.uk/article/5738/Find-out-about-upcoming-elections|title=Powys County Council - Find out about upcoming elections|website=en.powys.gov.uk}}

Davies wished to stand for re-election as the Conservative Party candidate and was chosen by the local party.{{cite news |url=https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-politics-48736879 |title=Former Tory MP will fight to regain seat |date=2019-06-23 |access-date=2019-06-24 |language=en-GB}} The Liberal Democrat candidate was Jane Dodds, the leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats. The Labour Party candidate was Brecon town councillor Tom Davies. The Brexit Party candidate was retired police chief superintendent Des Parkinson,{{cite web |url=https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-politics-48810457?intlink_from_url=https://www.bbc.com/news/politics&link_location=live-reporting-story |date=30 June 2019 |title=Brecon and Radnorshire by-election Brexit Party candidate named |work=BBC News}} who previously stood in Montgomeryshire as a UK Independence Party (UKIP) candidate for election to the UK parliament in May 2015, to the Welsh Assembly in May 2016,{{cite web |url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/wales-constituencies/W09000011 |date=6 May 2016 |title=Montgomeryshire - Welsh Assembly constituency - Election 2016 |website=BBC News}} and as Dyfed-Powys Police and Crime Commissioner, also in May 2016.{{cite web |url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2016-wales-35987731 |date=8 May 2016 |title=Police and crime commissioner elections: Dyfed-Powys |website=BBC News}}

Dodds, the Liberal Democrat candidate, was also supported by Plaid Cymru, the Greens, Change UK and the Renew Party. Plaid Cymru first indicated that it might not stand a candidate in order to support another party supporting a second referendum on Brexit. Change UK called for an independent joint Remain candidate in a letter to the Liberal Democrats, Plaid and the Greens.{{cite web |url=https://twitter.com/forchange_now/status/1142087700008374272 |title=NEW: @ForChange_Now has today called for an independent joint #Remain candidate in the Brecon & Radnorshire by-election in a letter to @LibDems @TheGreenParty & @Plaid_Cymru |author=Change UK - The Independent Group |date=21 June 2019 |publisher=Twitter}} Plaid and Change UK subsequently confirmed that they were in talks with other Remain-supporting parties.{{cite news |url=https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-politics-48742981 |title=Plaid in Brecon by-election pact talks |date=2019-06-24 |work=BBC News |access-date=2019-06-25 |language=en-GB}} Plaid Cymru decided not to put up a candidate, and instead to support Dodds.{{cite news |last=Mason |first=Chris |title=Remain parties team up for Brecon and Radnorshire by-election |work=BBC News |date=4 July 2019 |url=https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-48871729 |access-date=4 July 2019}} The Green Party also chose not to stand a candidate, in order to "maximise the chances of the candidate most likely to beat the Conservatives and the Brexit Party."{{cite news |url=https://www.countytimes.co.uk/news/17738072.brecon-and-radnorshire-by-election-green-party-not-contesting-seat/ |title=Brecon and Radnorshire By-election: Green Party not contesting seat |last=Hancock |first=Barry |date=28 June 2019 |work=The County Times |access-date=29 June 2019}} The Renew Party likewise chose not to stand a candidate for the same reason.{{Cite web|url=https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2019/06/renew-stands-aside-remain-unity-alliance-stop-Brexit-brecon-by-election|title=Great news for Remain unity: Renew is standing aside in the Brecon by-election|website=www.newstatesman.com|date=7 June 2021 }}

Shortly after the result of the recall petition was announced, bookmakers made the Liberal Democrats odds-on favourites to win. In the final week before the election, Heidi Allen MP, former leader of Change UK and now sitting with The Independents, came to the constituency to campaign for Dodds.{{Cite web|url=http://www.brecon-radnor.co.uk/article.cfm?id=110975&headline=New+Liberal+Democrat+leader+Jo+Swinson+has+been+in+Brecon§ionIs=news&searchyear=2019|title=New Liberal Democrat leader Jo Swinson has been in Brecon|website=Brecon & Radnor Express|date=27 July 2019 }} The new Liberal Democrat leader, Jo Swinson, visited the constituency four times, but the New Statesman noted that The Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage had not, and described the party's campaign infrastructure as "threadbare".{{Cite web|url=https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2019/07/heidi-allen-joins-liberal-democrats|title=Heidi Allen joins the Liberal Democrats*|website=www.newstatesman.com}}

Days before the election, BBC Cymru Wales reported that, in May 2019, the Conservative Party's Brecon and Radnorshire chairman, Peter Weavers, had discussed a pro-Brexit pact with Nathan Gill, a Welsh Brexit Party MEP. Gill dismissed the idea due to Davies' support for the Withdrawal Agreement negotiated by Theresa May's government. Weavers denied the claim.{{Cite news|url=https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-politics-49146865|title=Tories 'discussed' Brexit Party by-election pact|first=James|last=Williams|work=BBC News |date=29 July 2019}}

Only one poll was conducted, with fieldwork taking place from 10 to 18 July. The poll was completed before Johnson and Swinson were elected as leaders of the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats respectively. Commenting on the paucity of polling, Britain Elects noted: "Constituency opinion polling isn’t tried much in the UK these days; it’s difficult to get a sample with such a small electorate, and when it was tried on a large scale in advance of the 2015 election it fell victim to the same polling failures that beset that election."{{Cite web|url=http://britainelects.com/2019/07/31/previews-01-aug-2019/|title=Previews: 01 Aug 2019|website=Britain Elects|access-date=2 August 2019|archive-date=2 August 2019|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190802045921/http://britainelects.com/2019/07/31/previews-01-aug-2019/|url-status=dead}}

The poll, by Number Cruncher Politics, was the first UK by-election poll to be conducted entirely online.{{Cite web|url=https://www.ncpolitics.uk/2019/07/polling-small-areas-online/|title=Polling small areas online|last=Singh|first=Matt|date=2019-07-20|website=Number Cruncher Politics|language=en-GB|access-date=2019-08-02}}{{Cite web|url=https://medium.com/@theintersectuk/the-value-of-survey-information-5ef208cf2dc8|title=The Value of Survey Information|last=Masters|first=Anthony B.|date=2019-07-30|website=Medium|language=en|access-date=2019-08-02}}

File:2019 Brecon and Radnorshire by-election.svg

{{Election box begin|title=2019 Brecon and Radnorshire by-election{{cite news |title=Brecon and Radnorshire by-election: Lib Dems beat Conservatives |url=https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-politics-49200636 |access-date=2 August 2019 |agency=BBC News |date=2 August 2019}}{{Cite web|url=https://talkradio.co.uk/news/brecon-and-radnorshire-election-six-candidates-confirmed-19070531549|title=Brecon and Radnorshire by-election: Six candidates confirmed|website=talkradio.co.uk}}}}

{{Election box winning candidate with party link|

|party = Welsh Liberal Democrats

|candidate = Jane Dodds

|votes = 13,826

|percentage = 43.5

|change = +14.4

}}

{{Election box candidate with party link

|party = Welsh Conservatives

|candidate = Christopher Davies

|votes = 12,401

|percentage = 39.0

|change = –9.6

}}

{{Election box candidate with party link

|party = Brexit Party

|candidate = Des Parkinson

|votes = 3,331

|percentage = 10.5

|change = N/A

}}

{{Election box candidate with party link

|party = Welsh Labour

|candidate = Tom Davies

|votes = 1,680

|percentage = 5.3

|change = –12.4

}}

{{Election box candidate with party link

|party = Official Monster Raving Loony Party

|candidate = Lady Lily the Pink

|votes = 334

|percentage = 1.1

|change = N/A

}}

{{Election box candidate with party link

|party = UK Independence Party

|candidate = Liz Phillips

|votes = 242

|percentage = 0.8

|change = –0.6

}}

{{Election box majority

|votes = 1,425

|percentage = 4.5

|change = N/A

}}

{{Election box turnout

|votes = 31,814

|percentage = 59.6

|change = –17.3

}}

{{Election box registered electors

|reg. electors = 53,393

}}

{{Election box gain with party link

|winner = Welsh Liberal Democrats

|loser = Welsh Conservatives

|swing = +12.0

}}

{{Election box end}}

The result was announced at around 2:20 a.m. on 2 August.{{cite news |title=Close player As it happened: Lib Dems win by-election |url=https://www.bbc.com/news/live/uk-wales-politics-49103064 |access-date=2 August 2019 |agency=BBC News |date=2 August 2019}} In her victory speech, Jane Dodds said she would urge Prime Minister Boris Johnson to "stop playing with the future of our communities and rule out a no-deal Brexit".{{cite news |title=Lib Dems win Brecon and Radnorshire by-election |url=https://www.bbc.com/news/av/uk-wales-49201175/lib-dems-win-brecon-and-radnorshire-by-election |access-date=2 August 2019 |agency=BBC News |date=2 August 2019}} By failing to secure at least 5% of the votes cast, both the Official Monster Raving Loony Party (1.05%) and the UK Independence Party (0.76%) forfeited their deposits.{{cite news |last1=Colson |first1=Thomas |title=Five things we learned from the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election |url=https://www.businessinsider.com/five-things-brecon-radnorshire-by-election-boris-johnson-brexit-liberal-democrats-2019-8 |access-date=2 August 2019 |agency=Business Insider |date=2 August 2019}} The 59.6% turnout figure was the highest recorded in a Westminster by-election since Winchester in 1997.

The Liberal Democrat majority was smaller than the number of votes polled by the Brexit Party, leading many commentators to suggest that vote splitting between the Conservatives and the Brexit Party was a significant threat to the party.{{cite news|url=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/02/byelection-defeat-highlights-brexit-urgency-johnson-brecon-tories|title=Byelection defeat highlights Brexit urgency for Johnson|date=2 August 2019|access-date=5 August 2019|first=Dan|last=Sabbagh|newspaper=The Guardian}}{{cite news|url=https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49204174|title=Brecon and Radnorshire by-election: What does it tell us?|first=Peter|last=Saull|date=2 August 2019|access-date=5 August 2019}} The Brexit Party did however underperform relative to polls (although they got nearly twice as many votes as the Labour Party and came a clear third), with the BBC suggesting that the appointment of Boris Johnson as Prime Minister had helped the Conservatives win back some Brexit Party supporters. Meanwhile, the narrow win for the Lib Dems bolstered support for a "Remain Alliance", but the largest increase in Lib Dem votes appeared to come from those who voted Labour in 2017. The Guardian noted that although Labour had prioritised beating the Conservatives over winning the seat themselves, Labour's result was still "at the lower end of what was credible". The extremely small vote share for UKIP was reported as an embarrassment for the party, and their failure to beat even the Official Monster Raving Loony Party was compared to the May 1990 Bootle election in which David Owen's continuing Social Democratic Party received fewer votes than the Loonys and collapsed shortly after.{{cite news|title=Brecon and Radnorshire by-election result: Ukip beaten by Monster Raving Loony party|url=https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brecon-radnorshire-by-election-result-ukip-monster-raving-loony-party-lady-wales-lady-lily-pink-a9036411.html |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190802162027/https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brecon-radnorshire-by-election-result-ukip-monster-raving-loony-party-lady-wales-lady-lily-pink-a9036411.html |archive-date=2019-08-02 |url-access=limited |url-status=live|first=Adam|last=Forrest|date=2 August 2019|access-date=5 August 2019|newspaper=The Independent}}{{cite news|url=https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/monster-raving-loony-party-finishes-off-ukip-by-beating-them-in-by-election-1-6195062|title=Monster Raving Loony Party 'finishes off' UKIP by beating them in by-election|first=Jonathon|last=Read|date=2 August 2019|access-date=5 August 2019|newspaper=The New European|archive-date=5 August 2019|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190805101914/https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/monster-raving-loony-party-finishes-off-ukip-by-beating-them-in-by-election-1-6195062|url-status=dead}}

{{Election box begin|title=General election 2017: Brecon and Radnorshire{{cite web

|title = Statement of Persons Nominated and Notice of Poll

|url = http://pstatic.powys.gov.uk/fileadmin/Docs/Elections/Statement_of_Persons_Nominated_GE__Brecon__Radnorshire_17.pdf

|publisher = Powys County Council

|date = 11 May 2017

|access-date = 6 June 2017

|archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20171210071658/http://pstatic.powys.gov.uk/fileadmin/Docs/Elections/Statement_of_Persons_Nominated_GE__Brecon__Radnorshire_17.pdf

|archive-date = 10 December 2017

|url-status = dead

}}{{cite news|title=Brecon and Radnorshire Parliamentary constituency|url=https://www.bbc.com/news/politics/constituencies/W07000068|website=Election 2017 Results|publisher=BBC|access-date=3 January 2020}}}}

{{Election box winning candidate with party link|

|party = Welsh Conservatives

|candidate = Christopher Davies

|votes = 20,081

|percentage = 48.6

|change = +7.5

}}

{{Election box candidate with party link

|party = Welsh Liberal Democrats

|candidate = James Gibson-Watt

|votes = 12,043

|percentage = 29.1

|change = +0.8

}}

{{Election box candidate with party link

|party = Welsh Labour

|candidate = Dan Lodge

|votes = 7,335

|percentage = 17.7

|change = +3.0

}}

{{Election box candidate with party link|

|party = Plaid Cymru

|candidate = Kate Heneghan

|votes = 1,299

|percentage = 3.1

|change = –1.3

}}

{{Election box candidate with party link

|party = UK Independence Party

|candidate = Peter Gilbert

|votes = 576

|percentage = 1.4

|change = –6.9

}}

{{Election box majority

|votes = 8,038

|percentage = 19.5

|change = +6.7

}}

{{Election box turnout

|votes = 41,334

|percentage = 76.9

|change = +3.1

}}

{{Election box registered electors|

|reg. electors = 56,010

}}

{{Election box hold with party link

|winner = Welsh Conservatives

|swing = +3.4

}}

{{Election box end}}

• 2021 Chesham and Amersham by-election
• 2019 Peterborough by-election
• 1985 Brecon and Radnor by-election
• 1939 Brecon and Radnorshire by-election
• List of United Kingdom by-elections

{{Notelist}}

{{reflist}}

{{Recall petitions of the United Kingdom House of Commons}}

{{By-elections to the 57th UK Parliament}}

{{Westminster by-elections in Wales 1950–present}}

Brecon and Radnorshire by-election

Brecon and Radnorshire by-election

Brecon and Radnorshire by-election

Category:Recall in the United Kingdom

Category:2010s elections in Wales

Category:By-elections to the Parliament of the United Kingdom in Welsh constituencies