2021 Upper Hunter state by-election
{{Short description|Election result for Upper Hunter, New South Wales, Australia}}
{{Use Australian English|date=March 2021}}
{{Use dmy dates|date=March 2021}}
{{Infobox election
| election_name = 2021 Upper Hunter state by-election
| country = Australia
| type = Parliamentary
| vote_type = Primary
| ongoing = no
| previous_election = 2019 New South Wales state election
| previous_year = 2019
| election_date = 22 May 2021
| next_election = 2023 New South Wales state election
| next_year = 2023
| turnout = 86.74 {{decrease}} 3.80
| registered = 56,127
| seats_for_election = Electoral district of Upper Hunter in the New South Wales Legislative Assembly
| candidate1 = Dave Layzell
| image1 = 150x150px
| party1 = National Party of Australia – NSW
| popular_vote1 = 14,805
| percentage1 = 31.20%
| swing1 = {{decrease}} 2.79
| candidate2 = Jeff Drayton
| image2 = 150x150px
| party2 = Australian Labor Party (New South Wales Branch)
| popular_vote2 = 10,055
| percentage2 = 21.19%
| swing2 = {{decrease}} 7.46
| candidate4 = Dale McNamara
| image4 = {{Election image filler|Pauline Hanson's One Nation|PHON|150x150px}}
| party4 = Pauline Hanson's One Nation – New South Wales
| popular_vote4 = 5,845
| percentage4 = 12.32%
| swing4 = {{increase}} 12.32
| candidate5 = Sue Gilroy
| image5 = {{Election image filler|Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party|SFF|150x150px}}
| party5 = SFF
| popular_vote5 = 5,676
| percentage5 = 11.96%
| swing5 = {{decrease}} 10.08
| 1blank = 2PP
| 1data1 = 55.82%
| 1data2 = 44.18%
| 2blank = 2PP swing
| 2data1 = {{increase}} 3.26
| 2data2 = {{decrease}} 3.26
| map_image = NSW Electoral District 2019 - Upper Hunter.png
| map_size =
| map_caption = The Electoral district of Upper Hunter in New South Wales
| title = MP
| before_election = Michael Johnsen
| before_party = Nationals
| after_election = Dave Layzell
| after_party = Nationals
| flag_image = Flag_of_New_South_Wales.svg
}}
The 2021 Upper Hunter by-election was held on 22 May 2021 to elect the next Member of Parliament for the district of Upper Hunter in the Legislative Assembly. The by-election was triggered following the resignation of incumbent Nationals MP Michael Johnsen on 31 March 2021.
At around 8:30 pm on the by-election night, ABC News psephologist Antony Green called the election for the Nationals candidate Dave Layzell. Although Layzell was considered the narrow favourite based on polling, he ultimately won by a margin of 5.8% in the two-candidate-preferred vote, larger than polling suggested.
Results
File:Preference flows in the 2021 Upper Hunter state by-election.png
{{Election box begin
|title=2021 Upper Hunter by-election{{hsp}}{{Cite web|url=https://results.elections.nsw.gov.au/SB2101/Upper_Hunter/Parliamentary/CheckCountPreferencesReport.html |title=LA – Check Count First Preference District Summary – Upper Hunter|work=Upper Hunter State By-Election 22-MAY-2021|publisher=NSW Electoral Commission |access-date=27 May 2021}}{{cite web |title=LA – Check Count TCP District Summary – Upper Hunter|url=https://results.elections.nsw.gov.au/SB2101/Upper_Hunter/Parliamentary/CheckCountTCPReport.html |website=Upper Hunter State By-Election 22-MAY-2021 |publisher=New South Wales Electoral Commission |access-date=27 May 2021}}
}}
{{Election box candidate AU party|
|candidate = Dave Layzell
|party = Nationals NSW
|votes = 14,805
|percentage = 31.20
|change = −2.79
}}
{{Election box candidate AU party|
|candidate = Jeff Drayton
|party = Labor NSW
|votes = 10,055
|percentage = 21.19
|change = −7.46
}}
{{Election box candidate AU party|
|candidate = Dale McNamara
|party = One Nation
|votes = 5,845
|percentage = 12.32
|change = +12.32
}}
{{Election box candidate AU party|
|candidate = Sue Gilroy
|party = Shooters, Fishers and Farmers
|votes = 5,676
|percentage = 11.96
|change = −10.08
}}
{{Election box candidate AU party|
|candidate = Kirsty O'Connell
|party = Independent
|votes = 4,176
|percentage = 8.80
|change = +8.80
}}
{{Election box candidate AU party|
|candidate = Tracy Norman
|party = Independent
|votes = 1,951
|percentage = 4.11
|change = +4.11
}}
{{Election box candidate AU party|
|candidate = Sue Abbott
|party = Greens NSW
|votes = 1,648
|percentage = 3.47
|change = −1.31
}}
{{Election box candidate AU party|
|candidate = Steven Reynolds
|party = Independent
|votes = 1,027
|percentage = 2.16
|change = +2.16
}}
{{Election box candidate AU party|
|candidate = Eva Pears
|party = Liberal Democrats
|votes = 698
|percentage = 1.47
|change = −2.96
}}
{{Election box candidate AU party|
|candidate = Kate Fraser
|party = Independent
|votes = 644
|percentage = 1.36
|change = +1.36
}}
{{Election box candidate AU party|
|candidate = Michael Dello-Iacovo
|party = Animal Justice
|votes = 397
|percentage = 0.84
|change = −1.14
}}
{{Election box candidate AU party|
|candidate = Calum Blair
|party = Sustainable Australia
|votes = 375
|percentage = 0.79
|change = −1.43
}}
{{Election box candidate AU party|
|candidate = Archie Lea
|party = Independent
|votes = 156
|percentage = 0.33
|change = +0.33
}}
{{Election box formal|
|votes = 47,453
|percentage = 97.47
|change = +0.85
}}
{{Election box informal|
|votes = 1,234
|percentage = 2.53
|change = −0.85
}}
{{Election box turnout|
|votes = 48,687
|percentage = 86.74
|change = −3.80
}}
{{Election box 2pp}}
{{Election box candidate AU party|
|candidate = Dave Layzell
|party = Nationals NSW
|votes = 18,484
|percentage = 55.82
|change = +3.26
}}
{{Election box candidate AU party|
|candidate = Jeff Drayton
|party = Labor NSW
|votes = 14,631
|percentage = 44.18
|change = −3.26
}}
{{Election box hold AU party|
|winner = Nationals NSW
|swing = +3.26
}}
{{Election box end}}
==Background==
On 24 March 2021, Labor MP for Blue Mountains Trish Doyle used parliamentary privilege to accuse an unnamed government MP of raping a sex worker.{{cite news |last1=Smith |first1=Alexandra |last2=Rabe |first2=Tom |last3=Cormack |first3=Lucy |title=Labor MP says a NSW government MP raped female sex worker |url=https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/labor-mp-says-a-nsw-government-mp-raped-female-sex-worker-20210324-p57drc.html |access-date=31 March 2021 |work=The Sydney Morning Herald |date=24 March 2021}} Later that day Michael Johnsen, the MP for Upper Hunter, issued a statement that confirmed he was the man accused of the rape, but maintained his innocence. Johnsen announced he would resign from his parliamentary secretary position and leave the government party room to sit as an independent.{{cite news |last1=Raper |first1=Ashleigh |last2=Knowles |first2=Lorna |title=NSW government MP Michael Johnsen identifies himself as politician at centre of Blue Mountains rape allegation |url=https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-24/michael-johnsen-denies-blue-mountains-rape-allegation/100027040 |access-date=31 March 2021 |work=ABC News |date=24 March 2021}} One week later it was revealed that Johnsen had exchanged lewd messages and explicit videos with the alleged victim while in Parliament, including a string of messages where he was in Question time.{{cite news |last1=Knowles |first1=Lorna |last2=Stewart |first2=John |title=Nationals MP Michael Johnsen exchanged lewd messages with sex worker during NSW Question Time |url=https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-30/nationals-mp-invited-sex-worker-into-nsw-parliament/100036294 |access-date=31 March 2021 |work=ABC News |date=30 March 2021}} After Nationals leader John Barilaro called for him to step down, Johnsen resigned from Parliament on 31 March 2021, maintaining his innocence, but citing "the harassment of some sections of the media" as the reason for his resignation.{{Cite web|date=2021-03-31|title=Nationals MP accused of rape resigns from NSW Parliament|url=https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-31/michael-johnsen-resigns-from-nsw-parliament/100040844|access-date=2021-03-31|website=www.abc.net.au|language=en-AU}}
| class="wikitable"
|+ {{nowrap|Two-party-preferred vote in Upper Hunter, 2007–2019}} | |||||
| align=right style="border-bottom: 2px solid darkgray;"
! colspan="2"| Election | 2007 | 2011{{efn|The two-candidate preferred in the 2011 election was between the Nationals and Independent candidate Tim Duddy who received 68.3% and 31.6% respectively. The numbers in this table reflect a traditional Nationals and Labor contest.}} | 2015 | 2019 | |
| align=left
| width=1pt {{Australian party style|Nationals}}| | Nationals | align=right| 64.70% | align=right| 73.30% | align=right| 52.20% | align=right| 52.56% |
| align=left
| width="1pt" {{Australian party style|Labor}} | | Labor | align=right| 35.30% | align=right| 26.70% | align=right| 47.80% | align=right| 47.44% |
| align=right
! colspan="2"| Government | {{Australian party shading/Labor}}|ALP | {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}|L/NP | {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}|L/NP | {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}|L/NP |
Controversies
On 15 April 2021, the campaign of Nationals candidate Dave Layzell was found to have registered websites in the names of two other candidates and then released material about those candidates on those domains.{{cite web|url=https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-15/nationals-fake-websites-smear-upper-hunter-rivals/100072756|title=NSW Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party's Sue Gilroy says Nationals' website campaign tactic 'low blow'|publisher=ABC News|date=15 April 2021}}{{cite web|url=https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-18/nsw-hunter-by-election/100077230|title=NSW Nationals backflip on 'dirty tactic' during hotly contested Upper Hunter by-election|publisher=ABC News|date=18 April 2021}} Website domains were registered in the names of Shooters, Fishers and Farmers candidate Sue Gilroy and Labor candidate Jeff Drayton. These sites were used to disseminate material unfavourable to these candidates. The Nationals website registered in Gilroy's name highlighted the risk that a vote for the Shooters was a vote for Labor given the potential for the party to allocate preferences to Labor. At the 2019 state election, the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers party urged Upper Hunter voters to put Nationals last, essentially preferencing Labor over Nationals.{{cite web|url=https://www.northerndailyleader.com.au/story/5964530/labors-preference-deal-with-shooters-targets-first-upper-hunter-victory/|title=NSW election 2019: Labor's preference deal with Shooters targets first Upper Hunter victory|publisher=The Northern Star Daily|date=20 March 2019}} Deputy Labor leader Yasmin Catley labelled the Nationals campaign a "dirty tricks" campaign, while Gilroy labelled the tactics a "low blow" and "laughable". Layzell denied personal responsibility for registering the websites and the material distributed on those domains.
On 9 May, former Liberal Party Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, who owns property in the electorate, endorsed independent candidate Kirsty O'Connell, saying that she would not "sell-out the health of the community in the way the National party has done, in the way they've cuddled up to the big mining companies with no regard to what the people need here." In response, Nationals leader, John Barilaro said that Turnbull is "an absolute disgrace" and should quit the Liberal Party.{{Cite web|date=2021-05-09|title='Absolute disgrace': War of words erupts over Upper Hunter by-election|url=https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-05-09/turnbull-endorses-independent-in-upper-hunter-by-election/100126770|access-date=2021-05-09|publisher=ABC News|language=en-AU}}{{cite web|url=https://www.skynews.com.au/details/_6255110337001|title=Barilaro calls on Turnbull to quit the Liberals|publisher=Sky News|date=20 May 2021|access-date=24 May 2021}}
Candidates
Candidates are listed in ballot paper order.{{cite web |title=Nominated candidates for the 2021 Upper Hunter state by-election |url=https://www.elections.nsw.gov.au/State-by-election/2021/Upper-Hunter/nominated-candidates |publisher=New South Wales Electoral Commission |access-date=8 May 2021}}
Opinion polling
| class="toccolours" cellpadding="5" cellspacing="0" style="float:left; margin-right:.5em; margin-top:.4em; font-size:90%;" |
| +Upper Hunter by-election polling |
| style="background:#; text-align:center;"|Date
! style="background:#; text-align:center;"|Firm ! style="background:#; text-align:center;"|Commissioned by ! style="background:#; text-align:center;"|Sample ! style="background:#ccc; text-align:center;" colspan="6"|Primary vote ! style="background:#ebbce3; text-align:center;" colspan="2"|TPP vote |
|---|
| colspan="4" |
! style="background:#21963f" | NAT ! style="background:#f66" | ALP ! style="background:orange" | ON ! style="background:#E52B50" | SFF ! style="background:#90ee90" |GRN ! style="background:gray;"| OTH ! style="background:#21963f" | NAT ! style="background:#f66" | ALP |
| style="text-align:center" | 21 May 2021
| style="text-align:center" | - | style="text-align:center" | National Party{{cite news |title=Nationals polling shows the state government will win the Upper Hunter by-election |url=https://www.facebook.com/7NEWSsydney/videos/140329111423571 |work=7NEWS Sydney}} | style="text-align:center" | - | style="text-align:center" | 34% | style="text-align:center" | 20% | style="text-align:center" | 16% | style="text-align:center" | 12% | style="text-align:center" | - | style="text-align:center" | - |
| style="text-align:center" | 18 May 2021
| style="text-align:center" | - | style="text-align:center" | National Party{{cite news |last1=Bashan |first1=Yoni |title=Nationals tipped to be collectors in NSW Upper Hunter poll |url=https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/nationals-tipped-to-be-collectors-in-nsw-upper-hunter-poll/news-story/cf227ba9ee964bc9ae37e3ea1ded927f |work=The Australian}} | style="text-align:center" | - | style="text-align:center" | 34% | style="text-align:center" | 22% | style="text-align:center" | 12% | style="text-align:center" | - | style="text-align:center" | - | style="text-align:center" | - |
| style="text-align:center" | 16 May 2021
| style="text-align:center" | YouGov | style="text-align:center" | Daily Telegraph{{cite news |last1=Caldwell |first1=Anna |title=Upper Hunter by-election: Nats in narrow 51-49 lead in crucial seat for Berejiklian |url=https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/upper-hunter-byelection-nats-in-narrow-5149-lead-in-crucial-seat-for-berejiklian/news-story/28c9ea0037ca6c172c806f92fcbe3422 |work=Daily Telegraph}} | style="text-align:center" | 400 | style="text-align:center" | 25% | style="text-align:center" | 23% | style="text-align:center" | 11% | style="text-align:center" | 16% | style="text-align:center" | 6% | style="text-align:center" | 19% | style="text-align:center" | 51% | style="text-align:center" | 49% |
| style="text-align:center" | 17 April 2021
| style="text-align:center" | - | style="text-align:center" | Shooters, Fishers and Farmers{{cite news |title=The Sauce: Deputy Premier John Barilaro celebrates 10 years in office |url=https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/the-sauce-deputy-premier-john-barilaro-celebrates-10-years-in-office/news-story/d03177a37eb7faff239c1787cbeddca2 |work=Daily Telegraph}} | style="text-align:center" | ~1500 | style="text-align:center" | 25% | style="text-align:center" | 21% | style="text-align:center" | - | style="text-align:center" | 18% | style="text-align:center" | - | style="text-align:center" | - |
| style="text-align:center" | 11 April 2021
| style="text-align:center" | - | style="text-align:center" | National Party{{cite news |title=Mark Latham tipped as possible candidate for Upper Hunter by-election |url=https://www.skynews.com.au/details/_6248274822001 |access-date=14 April 2021 |work=Sky News Australia |language=en-AU}} | style="text-align:center" | - | style="text-align:center" | 38% | style="text-align:center" | 28% | style="text-align:center" | 12% | style="text-align:center" | 13% | style="text-align:center" | - | style="text-align:center" | 9% |
| style="text-align:center" | 9 April 2021
| style="text-align:center" | uComms{{cite web |title=Polling 8 April |url=https://australiainstitute.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Polling-8-April-2021-Upper-Hunter-Hunter-Valley-moratorium.pdf}} | style="text-align:center" | The Australia Institute{{Cite web|title=Polling: Upper Hunter – Moratorium on New Coal Mines in the Hunter|url=https://australiainstitute.org.au/report/polling-upper-hunter-moratorium-on-new-coal-mines-in-the-hunter/|access-date=2021-04-13|website=The Australia Institute|date=13 April 2021 |language=en}} | style="text-align:center" | 686 | style="text-align:center" | 35.4% | style="text-align:center" | 22.0% | style="text-align:center" | 13.0% | style="text-align:center" | 7.6% | style="text-align:center" | 9.3% | style="text-align:center" | 3.7% |
| style="text-align:center; background:#b0e9db;" colspan="4"|2019 New South Wales state election
| style="text-align:center; background:#b0e9db;"|33.99% | width="" style="text-align:center; background:#b0e9db;"|28.65% | style="text-align:center; background:#b0e9db;" |
| width="" style="text-align:center; background:#b0e9db;"|22.04%
| width="" style="text-align:center; background:#b0e9db;"|4.78% | width="" style="text-align:center; background:#b0e9db;"|10.54% | width="" style="text-align:center; background:#b0e9db;"|52.56% | width="" style="text-align:center; background:#b0e9db;"|47.44% |
{{clear}}
See also
Notes
{{notelist}}
References
{{Reflist}}
External links
- [https://www.elections.nsw.gov.au/Elections/State-government-elections/2021-Upper-Hunter-district-By-election New South Wales Electoral Commission: Upper Hunter State By-election]
- [https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/upper-hunter-by-election-2021/ ABC Elections: Upper Hunter by-election 2021]
{{NSW by-elections 57th parl|state=expanded}}
{{Results of New South Wales state elections}}
{{DEFAULTSORT:Upper Hunter 2021}}