2024 Dunkley by-election
{{Short description|By-election for a seat in the Australian House of Representatives}}
{{Use dmy dates|date=March 2024}}
{{Use Australian English|date=March 2024}}
{{Infobox election
| country = Australia
| type = parliamentary
| opinion_polls = #Opinion polling
| election_date = 2 March 2024
| previous_election = 2022 Australian federal election
| previous_year = 2022
| next_election = 2025 Australian federal election
| next_year = 2025
| seats_for_election = Division of Dunkley (Victoria) in the House of Representatives
| image1 = {{CSS image crop |Image = Jodie.belyea.mp image.jpg|bSize = 200|cWidth = 120|cHeight = 160|oTop = 35|oLeft = 47}}
| candidate1 = {{nowrap|Jodie Belyea}}
| party1 = Australian Labor Party
| popular_vote1 = 37,418
| percentage1 = 41.1%
| swing1 = {{increase}} 0.8
| image2 = {{CSS image crop |Image = Conroynathanphoto b.jpg|bSize = 125|cWidth = 120|cHeight = 160|oTop = 4|oLeft = 0}}
| image2_size = 100px
| candidate2 = Nathan Conroy
| party2 = Liberal Party of Australia
| popular_vote2 = 35,746
| percentage2 = 39.2%
| swing2 = {{increase}} 6.7
| 1blank = TPP
| 2blank = TPP swing
| 1data1 = 52.7%
| 2data1 = {{decrease}} 3.6
| 1data2 = 47.3%
| 2data2 = {{increase}} 3.6
| title = MP
| before_election = Peta Murphy
| before_party = Australian Labor Party
| after_election = Jodie Belyea
| after_party = Australian Labor Party
}}
A by-election to elect the next member of the Australian House of Representatives in the electorate of Dunkley was held on 2 March 2024, following the death of sitting member Peta Murphy in December 2023.{{Cite web |last=Crowe |first=David |date=2024-01-18 |title=Dunkley byelection called for Saturday March 2 |url=https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/dunkley-byelection-called-for-saturday-march-2-20240119-p5eyjc.html |access-date=2024-01-18 |website=The Sydney Morning Herald |language=en |archive-date=2024-01-18 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240118220839/https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/dunkley-byelection-called-for-saturday-march-2-20240119-p5eyjc.html |url-status=live }}{{cite web|url=https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/politics/byelection-to-be-held-in-dunkley-after-tragic-passing-of-labor-mp-peta-murphy/video/98993544dadbdbc32619742d14c36bd4|title=By-election to be held in Dunkley after tragic passing of Labor MP Peta Murphy|date=4 December 2023|accessdate=4 December 2023|publisher=Sky News|archive-date=4 December 2023|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20231204034059/https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/politics/byelection-to-be-held-in-dunkley-after-tragic-passing-of-labor-mp-peta-murphy/video/98993544dadbdbc32619742d14c36bd4|url-status=live}}{{cite news|url=https://www.news.com.au/finance/work/leaders/anthony-albanese-in-tears-after-labor-mp-peta-murphys-shock-death/news-story/e8f75560e0ebdf9295201b4e7396e7b5|title=Anthony Albanese in tears after Labor MP Peta Murphy's shock death|publisher=News.com.au|date=4 December 2023|access-date=4 December 2023|archive-date=4 December 2023|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20231204032334/https://www.news.com.au/finance/work/leaders/anthony-albanese-in-tears-after-labor-mp-peta-murphys-shock-death/news-story/e8f75560e0ebdf9295201b4e7396e7b5|url-status=live}} Jodie Belyea retained the seat for the Labor Party, winning 52.7% of the two-party preferred vote.{{cite web|url=https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-29778-210.htm|title=Dunkley, VIC|work=Australian Electoral Commission|access-date=2 March 2024|archive-date=13 March 2024|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240313191927/https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-29778-210.htm|url-status=dead}}
It was the third federal by-election to have taken place since the first sitting of the 47th Parliament, as well as being the first federal by-election in a Labor seat since 2020 and the first federal by-election triggered by a member's death since 2015. Conroy is contesting the Dunkley seat again in 2025 for the federal election.{{cite news |url=https://baysidenews.com.au/2024/10/22/dunkley-candidates-set-for-rematch/ |access-date=28 April 2025 |archive-date=21 April 2025 |date=18 November 2024 |orig-date=22 October 2024 |first=Brodie |last=Cowburn |title=Dunkley candidates set for rematch |website=Frankston Times |publisher=Mornington Peninsula News Group |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250421051417/https://baysidenews.com.au/2024/10/22/dunkley-candidates-set-for-rematch/ |url-status=live}}
Background
The by-election was triggered by the death of sitting Labor member Peta Murphy, who died at 50 years old due to breast cancer. Murphy was first diagnosed with breast cancer when she was 37.
Murphy was elected as the member of Dunkley in 2019, after she unseated one-term incumbent Liberal MP Chris Crewther. At the 2022 federal election, Murphy was re-elected with an increased majority, turning it into a fairly safe seat.
The seat of Dunkley has been held by both Labor and the Liberals and has traditionally been a marginal seat. The seat has never been a safe or very safe seat and has only been a fairly safe seat (defined by the Australian Electoral Commission as a seat held by between 6 and 10 percent), twice: in 2004 (won by the Liberals with a margin of 9.38%) and in 2022 (won by Labor with a margin of 6.27%).
Since its creation in 1984, Dunkley has flipped between both major parties. It was Labor from 1984 until 1990, when the Liberals gained the seat. The seat went back to Labor in 1993 before the Liberals regained it in 1996 and held it until 2016.
While by-elections usually swing against the government, there are exceptions. At the 2023 by-election in the seat of Aston in eastern Melbourne, Labor won the seat from the Liberals, making it the first time the Government has won a seat from the Opposition at a federal by-election since 1920. However, at the 2023 by-election in the seat of Fadden on the Gold Coast, the Liberal National Party retained the seat with an increased majority.
| class="wikitable"
|+ Two-party-preferred vote in Dunkley, 1996–2022 | |||||||||||
| align=right style="border-bottom: 2px solid darkgray;"
! colspan="2"| Election | 1996 | 1998 | 2001 | 2004 | 2007 | 2010 | 2013 | 2016 | 2019 | 2022 | |
| align=right
| width=1pt {{Australian party style|Liberal}}| | Liberal | {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}|53.36% | {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}|52.04% | {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}|55.42% | {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}|59.38% | {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}|54.04% | {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}|51.02% | {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}|55.57% | {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}|51.43% | 47.26% | 43.73% |
| align=right style="border-bottom: 2px solid darkgray;"
| width=1pt {{Australian party style|Labor}}| | Labor | 46.64% | 47.96% | 44.58% | 40.62% | 45.96% | 48.98% | 44.43% | 48.57% | {{Australian party shading/Labor}}|52.74% | {{Australian party shading/Labor}}|56.27% |
| align=right
! colspan="2"| Government | {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}|L/NP | {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}|L/NP | {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}|L/NP | {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}|L/NP | {{Australian party shading/Labor}}|ALP | {{Australian party shading/Labor}}|ALP | {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}|L/NP | {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}|L/NP | {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}|L/NP | {{Australian party shading/Labor}}|ALP |
=Previous election results=
{{main|Results of the 2022 Australian federal election in Victoria#Dunkley}}
Murphy won the 2022 federal election with a 3.53% two-party-preferred swing towards her, and a 1.71% increase in primary vote. On the other hand, the Liberal Party had a 7.38% decrease in its primary vote. The Greens also contested the election and had a 1.95% increase in primary votes from the previous 2019 election.
Other parties and candidates that contested Dunkley at the 2022 election were United Australian Party, One Nation, Liberal Democratic Party, Animal Justice Party, Australian Federation Party and an independent candidate Darren Bergwerf, with each of them achieving less than 10% of the primary vote.[https://results.aec.gov.au/27966/Website/HouseDivisionPage-27966-210.htm Dunkley, VIC] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240306112022/https://results.aec.gov.au/27966/Website/HouseDivisionPage-27966-210.htm |date=6 March 2024 }}, 2022 Tally Room, Australian Electoral Commission.
Out of the Dunkley candidates in the 2022 election, only Bergwerf contested this by-election.
Key dates
Key dates in relation to the by-election are:{{cite web|url=https://www.aec.gov.au/dunkley/|title=2024 Dunkley by-election|work=aec.gov.au|access-date=2024-02-21|archive-date=2024-02-14|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240214154544/https://www.aec.gov.au/dunkley/|url-status=live}}
- 29 January 2024 – Issue of writ
- 5 February 2024 – Close of roll
- 8 February 2024 – Close of nominations
- 9 February 2024 – Declaration of nominations
- 19 February 2024 – Commencement of early voting
- 28 February 2024 – Applications for postal voting closes
- 2 March 2024 – Polling day
- 8 May 2024 – Last day for return of writ
Candidates
File:Dunkley by-election, Overport Primary School (cropped).jpg
File:Dunkley by-election Chisholm TAFE Frankston March 2024 2.jpg in Frankston]]
Candidates are listed in the order they appeared on the ballot.{{cite web|url=https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/dunkley-by-election-2024|title=Dunkley By-election 2024 Results|last1=Green|first1=Antony|author-link=Antony Green|date=9 February 2024|accessdate=9 February 2024|website=ABC News|archive-date=6 February 2024|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240206064306/https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/dunkley-by-election-2024|url-status=live}}
=Labor=
Rod Glover, Peta Murphy's husband, was asked by "senior figures and local branch members" to run as Labor's candidate. Additionally, it was speculated in the media that former Victorian premier Daniel Andrews was a possible contender, however neither of these eventuated.{{cite web |title=Late Labor MP's husband urged to run in key byelection for Albanese and Dutton |date=29 December 2023 |url=https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/late-labor-mp-s-husband-urged-to-run-in-key-byelection-for-albanese-and-dutton-20231229-p5eu5y.html |publisher=Sydney Morning Herald |access-date=2024-01-14 |archive-date=2024-01-14 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240114120149/https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/late-labor-mp-s-husband-urged-to-run-in-key-byelection-for-albanese-and-dutton-20231229-p5eu5y.html |url-status=live }}{{cite web |title=Dan Andrews for federal Parliament? Rumours fly as Dunkley reels from death of MP Peta Murphy |date=18 December 2023 |url=https://www.crikey.com.au/2023/12/18/dan-andrews-dunkley-peta-murphy/ |publisher=Crikey |access-date=2024-01-14 |archive-date=2024-01-14 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240114120149/https://www.crikey.com.au/2023/12/18/dan-andrews-dunkley-peta-murphy/ |url-status=live }} On 11 January 2024, Jodie Belyea was announced as Labor's candidate.{{cite news |title=Jodie Belyea named candidate for Dunkley, Victoria by-election after death of Peta Murphy |url=https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-01-11/dunkley-by-election-candidate-labor-named-jodie-belyea/103308732 |newspaper=ABC News |date=10 January 2024 |access-date=2024-01-11 |archive-date=2024-01-11 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240111015245/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-01-11/dunkley-by-election-candidate-labor-named-jodie-belyea/103308732 |url-status=live }}
=Liberal=
Three candidates ran for Liberal Party preselection − Frankston mayor and councillor Nathan Conroy, former Victorian MP Donna Hope and former Liberal candidate Bec Buchanan. A fourth candidate, David Burgess, withdrew from the race.{{cite web |title=Make-or-break moment for Dutton as Liberals select Dunkley challenger |date=12 January 2024 |url=https://www.crikey.com.au/2024/01/12/peter-dutton-liberals-dunkley-byelection/ |publisher=Crikey |access-date=2024-01-14 |archive-date=2024-01-14 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240114021337/https://www.crikey.com.au/2024/01/12/peter-dutton-liberals-dunkley-byelection/ |url-status=live }} Conroy won preselection on 14 January 2024.{{cite web |title=FINAL VOTE |url=https://twitter.com/Leo_Puglisi6/status/1746353429923103200 |website=Twitter |publisher=Leonardo Puglisi |access-date=2024-01-14 |archive-date=2024-01-14 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240114021336/https://twitter.com/Leo_Puglisi6/status/1746353429923103200 |url-status=live }}
==Preselection results==
{{Election box begin
|title =
}}
{{Election box candidate AU party
|party = liberal
|candidate = Nathan Conroy
|votes = 89
|percentage = 57.79
|change =
}}
{{Election box candidate AU party
|party = liberal
|candidate = Donna Hope
|votes = 40
|percentage = 25.97
|change =
}}
{{Election box candidate AU party
|party = liberal
|candidate = Bec Buchanan
|votes = 25
|percentage = 16.23
|change =
}}
{{Election box formal
|votes = 154
|percentage = 100.0
|change =
}}
{{election box end}}
Opinion polling
| class="nowrap wikitable tpl-blanktable" style=text-align:center;font-size:90% |
| rowspan=2 | Date
! rowspan=2 | Firm ! rowspan=2 | Sample ! rowspan=2 | Margin ! colspan=9 class=unsortable style=background:#ccc | Primary vote ! colspan=2 class=unsortable style=background:#ebbce3 | 2PP vote |
|---|
| style=background:#f66 |ALP
! style=background:#00bfff |LIB ! style=background:#90ee90 |GRN ! style=background:#DCDCDC |IND ! style=background:#FCCD53 |LBT ! style=background:maroon |AJP ! style=background:#F7CF46 |DEM ! style=background:black |VS ! style=background:gray |OTH ! style=background:#f66 | ALP ! style=background:#00bfff | LIB |
| style=background:#b0e9db
| style=text-align:center data-sort-value=21-May-2022 | 2 March 2024 | colspan=3 style=text-align:center | By-election | 41.0% | 38.9% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 1.8% | N/A | 52.7% | 47.3% |
| 15–22 February 2024
|394 |± 6.1% |33% |40% |9% |7% |3% |2% |3% |3% |N/A |49% ! style=background:#00bfff|51% |
| 5–6 February 2024
|style="text-align:left;"|[https://australiainstitute.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Polling-Dunkley-Byelection-and-Stage-3.pdf uComms]{{efn|Sponsored by the Australia Institute}} |626 |± 3.9% |40.1% |39.3% |8.2% |N/A |1.6% |N/A |N/A |N/A |10.8% ! style=background:#f66|52% |48% |
| style=background:#b0e9db
| style=text-align:center data-sort-value=21-May-2022 | 21 May 2022 | colspan=3 style=text-align:center | Election | 40.2% | 32.5% | 10.3% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 2.1% | N/A | N/A | 14.8% | 56.3% | 43.7% |
Advocacy
The by-election saw conservative activist group Advance spend nearly $300,000 to unseat Labor, with its advertising described as 'Trumpian' and a 'fear campaign' by Victorian Labor MLA Paul Edbrooke.{{Cite news |last=Butler |first=Josh |date=2024-02-22 |title=Rightwing political group Advance mounts 'unprecedented' campaign against Labor in Dunkley |url=https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/feb/23/rightwing-political-group-advance-mounts-unprecedented-campaign-against-labor-in-dunkley |access-date=2024-02-27 |work=The Guardian |language=en-GB |issn=0261-3077 |archive-date=2024-02-26 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240226052613/https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/feb/23/rightwing-political-group-advance-mounts-unprecedented-campaign-against-labor-in-dunkley |url-status=live }}{{Cite web |last1=McIlroy |first1=Tom |last2=McCubbing |first2=Gus |date=22 February 2024 |title=Voters carpet-bombed in the fight for Dunkley |url=https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/voters-carpet-bombed-in-the-fight-for-dunkley-20240222-p5f72a |access-date=27 February 2024 |website=Australian Financial Review |language=en-AU |archive-date=26 February 2024 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240226052614/https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/voters-carpet-bombed-in-the-fight-for-dunkley-20240222-p5f72a |url-status=live }}{{cite web | url=https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/liberals-distance-themselves-from-right-wing-group-s-rapists-murderers-scare-campaign-20240223-p5f78z.html | title=Liberals distance themselves from right-wing group's 'rapists, murderers' scare campaign | access-date=3 March 2024 | archive-date=3 March 2024 | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240303014127/https://amp.smh.com.au/politics/federal/liberals-distance-themselves-from-right-wing-group-s-rapists-murderers-scare-campaign-20240223-p5f78z.html | url-status=live }}{{cite web | url=https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-02-26/albanese-win-dunkley-by-election-advance-back-bold-fear-lobby/103504362 | title=Albanese will be hoping for a win in the Dunkley by-election. But Advance is back as audacious as ever, fighting with fear and 'Trumpy' tropes - ABC News | access-date=3 March 2024 | archive-date=3 March 2024 | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240303014127/https://amp.abc.net.au/article/103504362 | url-status=live }}
Results
{{Election box begin
|title=2024 Dunkley by-election{{cite web |title=Dunkley, VIC |url=https://results.aec.gov.au/29778/Website/HouseDivisionPage-29778-210.htm |website=AEC Tally Room |publisher=Australian Electoral Commission |access-date=15 March 2024 |archive-date=8 April 2024 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240408105320/https://results.aec.gov.au/29778/Website/HouseDivisionPage-29778-210.htm |url-status=live }}{{cite web |title=Dunkley By-election 2024 Results |url=https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/dunkley-by-election-2024 |publisher=ABC News |access-date=15 March 2024 |archive-date=6 February 2024 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240206064306/https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/dunkley-by-election-2024 |url-status=live }}
}}
{{Election box candidate AU party|
|candidate = Jodie Belyea
|party = Labor
|votes = 37,418
|percentage = 41.07
|change = +0.84
}}
{{Election box candidate AU party|
|candidate = Nathan Conroy
|party = Liberal
|votes = 35,746
|percentage = 39.23
|change = +6.73
}}
{{Election box candidate AU party|
|candidate = Alex Breskin
|party = Greens
|votes = 5,798
|percentage = 6.36
|change = −3.98
}}
{{Election box candidate AU party|
|candidate = Darren Bergwerf
|party = Independent
|votes = 4,315
|percentage = 4.74
|change = +0.87
}}
{{Election box candidate AU party|
|candidate = Bronwyn Currie
|party = Animal Justice
|votes = 2,818
|percentage = 3.09
|change = +0.99
}}
{{Election box candidate AU party|
|candidate = Chrysten Abraham
|party = Libertarian
|votes = 2,246
|percentage = 2.47
|change = −0.04
}}
{{Election box candidate AU party|
|candidate = Reem Yunis
|party = Victorian Socialists
|votes = 1,529
|percentage = 1.68
|change = +1.68
}}
{{Election box candidate AU party|
|candidate = Heath McKenzie
|party = Democrats
|votes = 1,242
|percentage = 1.36
|change = +1.36
}}
{{Election box formal
|votes = 91,112
|percentage = 95.86
|change = +0.59
}}
{{Election box informal
|votes = 3,930
|percentage = 4.14
|change = −0.59
}}
{{Election box turnout
|votes=95,042
|percentage=83.79
|change=−6.27}}
{{Election box 2pp}}
{{Election box candidate AU party|
|candidate = Jodie Belyea
|party = Labor
|votes = 48,019
|percentage = 52.70
|change = −3.57
}}
{{Election box candidate AU party|
|candidate = Nathan Conroy
|party = Liberal
|votes = 43,093
|percentage = 47.30
|change = +3.57
}}
{{Election box hold AU party|
|winner = Labor
|swing = −3.57
}}
{{Election box end}}
See also
Notes
{{notelist}}
References
{{reflist}}
External links
- {{commons category-inline}}
{{Aus by-elections 47th parl}}
{{DEFAULTSORT:Dunkley by-election, 2024}}
Category:2024 elections in Australia
Category:2024 in Victoria (state)