2024 United States presidential election in Hawaii
{{short description|none}}
{{Use mdy dates|date=September 2023}}
{{main|2024 United States presidential election}}
{{row hover highlight}}
{{Infobox election
| election_name = 2024 United States presidential election in Hawaii
| country = Hawaii
| type = Presidential
| college_voted = yes
| previous_election = 2020 United States presidential election in Hawaii
| previous_year = 2020
| election_date = November 5, 2024
| next_election = 2028 United States presidential election in Hawaii
| next_year = 2028
| title = President
| before_election = Joe Biden
| before_party = Democratic Party (United States)
| after_election = Donald Trump
| after_party = Republican Party (United States)
| image_size = 200x200px
| image1 = Kamala Harris Vice Presidential Portrait (cropped).jpg
| nominee1 = Kamala Harris
| party1 = Democratic Party (United States)
| home_state1 = California
| running_mate1 = Tim Walz
| image2 = File:TrumpPortrait.jpg
| nominee2 = Donald Trump
| party2 = Republican Party (United States)
| home_state2 = Florida
| running_mate2 = JD Vance
| map_image = {{switcher
| 350px
| County results
| 350px
| Congressional district results
| 350px
| Precinct results
}}
| map_caption = {{col-begin}}
{{col-2}}
Harris
{{legend|#B9D7FF|40–50%}}
{{legend|#86B6F2|50–60%}}
{{legend|#4389E3|60–70%}}
{{legend|#1666CB|70–80%}}
{{legend|#0645B4|80–90%}}
{{legend|#002B84|90–100%}}
{{col-2}}
Trump
{{legend|#F2B3BE|40–50%}}
{{legend|#E27F90|50–60%}}
{{legend|#CC2F4A|60–70%}}
{{legend|#D40000|70–80%}}
{{legend|#800000|90–100%}}
{{col-3}}
No Data
{{legend|#808080}}
{{col-end}}
| turnout = 50.3%
| popular_vote1 = 313,044
| percentage1 = 60.59%
| popular_vote2 = 193,661
| percentage2 = 37.48%
| electoral_vote1 = 4
| electoral_vote2 = 0
}}
{{Elections in Hawaii sidebar}}
The 2024 United States presidential election in Hawaii took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Hawaii voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Hawaii has 4 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.{{cite web |last1=Wang |first1=Hansi |last2=Jin |first2=Connie |last3=Levitt |first3=Zach |title=Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats |url=https://www.npr.org/2021/04/26/983082132/census-to-release-1st-results-that-shift-electoral-college-house-seats |publisher=NPR |access-date=February 7, 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210819123145/https://www.npr.org/2021/04/26/983082132/census-to-release-1st-results-that-shift-electoral-college-house-seats |archive-date=August 19, 2021 |date=April 26, 2021 |url-status=live}}
Hawaii is a Pacific island state with its own unique culture separated from the mainland and is plurality-Asian American. Although Hawaii has been somewhat drifting away from the Democratic Party since 2008, Hawaii has only voted Republican in two presidential elections since gaining statehood, in 1972 and 1984.
Although Harris won the state comfortably, the Republican candidate, Donald Trump, received more than 35% of the vote for the first time since 2004, narrowing the margin by over 6% compared to 2020. It was also the first time since that election in which the Democratic candidate failed to achieve 60% of the vote in all of Hawaii's counties.
Primary elections
=Democratic caucuses=
{{main|2024 Hawaii Democratic presidential caucuses}}
The Hawaii Democratic caucuses were held on March 6, 2024.{{2024HIDem}}
=Republican caucuses=
{{main|2024 Hawaii Republican presidential caucuses}}
The Hawaii Republican caucuses was held on March 12, 2024, alongside primaries in Idaho, Mississippi, Missouri, and Washington.{{2024HIRep}}
General election
The Democratic Party of Hawaii attempted to disqualify the "ballot access petition" for Kennedy's newly created party, the We the People Party, on the November ballot, though the state Democratic Party was unsuccessful.{{cite web|url=https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/19/politics/rfk-jr-will-appear-on-hawaii-ballot-third-state-to-include-him/index.html|title=RFK Jr. will appear on Hawaii ballot, third state to include him|work=CNN|date=April 20, 2024 |accessdate=May 15, 2024|last=Pellish |first=Aaron}}
=Predictions=
=Polling=
{{hidden begin|titlestyle=background:#cff|title=Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump|contentstyle=border:solid 1px silver; padding:8px; background:white;}}
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
{{hidden end}}
{{hidden begin|titlestyle=background:#cff|title=Hypothetical polling with other candidates|contentstyle=border:solid 1px silver; padding:8px; background:white;}}
Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| class="wikitable sortable mw-datatable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;line-height:17px" |
| valign=bottom
! Poll source ! Date(s) ! Sample ! Margin ! class="unsortable" | Joe ! class="unsortable" | Robert F. ! class="unsortable" | Other / |
| style="text-align:left;"|John Zogby Strategies{{efn-ua|name=Kennedy}}
| data-sort-value="2024-05-01" |April 13–21, 2024 |301 (LV) |– |42% |{{party shading/Independent}}|48% |10% |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump
| class="wikitable sortable mw-datatable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;line-height:17px" |
| valign=bottom
! Poll source ! Date(s) ! Sample ! Margin ! class="unsortable" | Robert F. ! class="unsortable" | Donald ! class="unsortable" | Other / |
| style="text-align:left;"|John Zogby Strategies{{efn-ua|name=Kennedy}}
| data-sort-value="2024-05-01" |April 13–21, 2024 |301 (LV) |– |{{party shading/Independent}}|50% |27% |23% |
{{hidden end}}
= Results =
{{Election box begin |title=2024 United States presidential election in Hawaii{{cite web |title=GENERAL ELECTION 2024 - Statewide Summary - November 5, 2024 |work=Hawaii Office of Elections |date=November 13, 2024 |access-date=November 25, 2024 |url=https://elections.hawaii.gov/wp-content/results/histatewide.pdf}}}}
{{Election box winning candidate with party link|party=Democratic Party (United States)|candidate={{ubl|Kamala Harris|Tim Walz}}|votes=313,044|percentage=60.59|change=-3.14}}
{{Election box candidate with party link|party=Republican Party (United States)|candidate={{ubl|Donald Trump|JD Vance}}|votes=193,661|percentage=37.48|change=+3.21}}
{{Election box candidate with party link|party=Green Party (United States)|candidate={{ubl|Jill Stein|Butch Ware}}|votes=4,387|percentage=0.85|change=+0.18}}
{{Election box candidate with party link|party=Libertarian Party (United States)|candidate={{ubl|Chase Oliver|Mike ter Maat}}|votes=2,733|percentage=0.53|change=-0.43}}
{{Election box candidate with party link|party=Party for Socialism and Liberation|candidate={{ubl|Claudia De la Cruz|Karina Garcia}}|votes=1,940|percentage=0.38|change=N/A}}
{{Election box candidate with party link|party=American Solidarity Party|candidate={{ubl|Peter Sonski|Lauren Onak}}|votes=936|percentage=0.18|change=N/A}}
{{Election box total|votes=516,701|percentage=100.00|change=N/A}}
{{Election box end}}
== By county ==
{{Update|part=County results|date=December 2024|reason=County results needs to be fixed, totals aren't accurate when summed}}
| width="60%" class="wikitable sortable" style="text-align:center" | |||||||||
| style="text-align:center;" rowspan="2"| County
! style="text-align:center;" colspan="2"| Kamala Harris ! style="text-align:center;" colspan="2"| Donald Trump ! style="text-align:center;" colspan="2"| Various candidates ! style="text-align:center;" colspan="2"| Margin ! style="text-align:center;" rowspan="2"| Total | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| style="text-align:center;" data-sort-type="number"| #
! style="text-align:center;" data-sort-type="number"| % ! style="text-align:center;" data-sort-type="number"| # ! style="text-align:center;" data-sort-type="number"| % ! style="text-align:center;" data-sort-type="number"| # ! style="text-align:center;" data-sort-type="number"| % ! style="text-align:center;" data-sort-type="number"| # ! style="text-align:center;" data-sort-type="number"| % | |||||||||
| style="text-align:center;"
| {{party shading/Democratic}}| Hawaii | {{party shading/Democratic}}| 52,163 | {{party shading/Democratic}}| 62.98% | {{party shading/Republican}}| 28,748 | {{party shading/Republican}}| 34.71% | {{party shading/Others}}| 1,912 | {{party shading/Others}}| 2.31% | {{party shading/Democratic}}| 23,415 | {{party shading/Democratic}}| 28.27% | {{party shading/Democratic}}| 82,823 | |||||||||
| style="text-align:center;"
| {{party shading/Democratic}}| Honolulu | {{party shading/Democratic}}| 204,301 | {{party shading/Democratic}}| 59.93% | {{party shading/Republican}}| 130,489 | {{party shading/Republican}}| 38.28% | {{party shading/Others}}| 6,131 | {{party shading/Others}}| 1.79% | {{party shading/Democratic}}| 73,812 | {{party shading/Democratic}}| 21.65% | {{party shading/Democratic}}| 340,921 | |||||||||
| style="text-align:center;"
| {{party shading/Democratic}}| Kalawao | {{party shading/Democratic}}| 15 | {{party shading/Democratic}}| 83.33% | {{party shading/Republican}}| 3 | {{party shading/Republican}}| 16.67% | {{party shading/Others}}| 0 | {{party shading/Others}}| 0.00% | {{party shading/Democratic}}| 12 | {{party shading/Democratic}}| 66.66% | {{party shading/Democratic}}| 18 | |||||||||
| style="text-align:center;"
| {{party shading/Democratic}}| Kauai | {{party shading/Democratic}}| 17,675 | {{party shading/Democratic}}| 58.79% | {{party shading/Republican}}| 11,803 | {{party shading/Republican}}| 39.26% | {{party shading/Others}}| 586 | {{party shading/Others}}| 1.95% | {{party shading/Democratic}}| 5,872 | {{party shading/Democratic}}| 19.53% | {{party shading/Democratic}}| 30,064 | |||||||||
| style="text-align:center;"
| {{party shading/Democratic}}| Maui | {{party shading/Democratic}}| 38,905 | {{party shading/Democratic}}| 61.86% | {{party shading/Republican}}| 22,621 | {{party shading/Republican}}| 35.97% | {{party shading/Others}}| 1,367 | {{party shading/Others}}| 2.17% | {{party shading/Democratic}}| 16,284 | {{party shading/Democratic}}| 25.89% | {{party shading/Democratic}}| 62,893 | |||||||||
| Totals | 313,044 | 60.59% | 193,661 | 37.48% | 9,996 | 1.93% | 119,383 | 23.11% | 516,701 |
== By congressional district ==
Harris won both congressional districts.{{Cite web |title=Statement of Vote |url=https://elections.hawaii.gov/wp-content/results/hi_sov.pdf |website=elections.hawaii.gov |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250108012940/https://elections.hawaii.gov/wp-content/results/hi_sov.pdf |archive-date=2025-01-08}}
| class="wikitable"
!District !Harris !Trump !Representative |
| align=center
! {{party shading/Democratic}}|{{ushr|Hawaii|1|1st}} | 61.50% | 36.77% | {{party shading/Democratic}}|Ed Case |
| align=center
! {{party shading/Democratic}}|{{ushr|Hawaii|2|2nd}} | 59.74% | 38.14% | {{party shading/Democratic}}|Jill Tokuda |
Analysis
Despite still voting overwhelmingly for the Democratic candidate, Hawaii saw a noticeable shift to the right, with every county swinging by over 5%. Trump's margin was the best out of his three runs, having increased in every consecutive election. Trump's increased success in Hawaii was attributed by local political scientists to Hawaii's more moderate political nature and reluctance to embrace progressivism (Hawaii voted 44% against legalizing gay marriage at the same time that it gave Trump only 39% of the vote). It was also attributed to Hawaii's extremely high cost of living, with former blue-collar plantation households in Western Oahu posting some of Trump's strongest gains in the state.{{Cite web |title=Trump support grows in blue state Hawaii |url=https://www.hawaiitribune-herald.com/2024/11/11/hawaii-news/trump-support-grows-in-blue-state-hawaii/ |access-date=2025-03-15 |website=www.hawaiitribune-herald.com |language=en-US}} As the only majority-Asian state in the union, Hawaii also was affected by the large national shift to the right among Asian-American voters,{{Cite web |title=Here’s Why Asian Americans Shifted Right |url=https://manhattan.institute/article/heres-why-asian-americans-shifted-right |access-date=2025-03-15 |website=Manhattan Institute |language=en}}{{Cite web |date=2024-11-06 |title=Asian Americans favored Harris but shifted right by 5 points |url=https://www.nbcnews.com/news/asian-america/asian-americans-exit-poll-harris-trump-rcna179005 |access-date=2025-03-15 |website=NBC News |language=en}} especially Filipino Americans, who represent one of the largest Asian groups in Hawaii.{{Cite web |title=Did Filipino-Americans Help Trump Win Nevada? |url=https://thediplomat.com/2024/12/did-filipino-americans-help-trump-win-nevada/ |access-date=2025-03-15 |website=thediplomat.com |language=en-US}} Filipino Americans shifted to Trump in part cause of concern of China's Navy being close to the Philippines in the South China Sea and have recently viewed Biden and the Democratic Party being ineffective against China's aggression.{{Cite web |title=Did Filipino-Americans Help Trump Win Nevada? |url=https://thediplomat.com/2024/12/did-filipino-americans-help-trump-win-nevada/ |access-date=2025-03-15 |website=thediplomat.com |language=en-US}}
See also
Notes
{{notelist|refs=Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear}}
Partisan clients
{{notelist-ua}}
References
{{Reflist}}
{{commons category}}
{{2024 United States elections}}
{{State results of the 2024 U.S. presidential election}}