2025 Canadian federal election in Newfoundland and Labrador

{{Infobox election

| election_name = 2025 Canadian federal election in Newfoundland and Labrador

| country = Canada

| type = parliamentary

| ongoing = no

| election_date = 2025 Canadian federal election

| party_colour = yes

| party_name = yes

| seats_for_election = All 7 Newfoundland and Labrador seats in the House of Commons

| previous_year = 2021

| previous_election = 2021 Canadian federal election in Newfoundland and Labrador

| next_election =

| next_year = Next

| previous_mps = List of House members of the 44th Parliament of Canada#Newfoundland and Labrador

| elected_mps = List of House members of the 45th Parliament of Canada#Newfoundland and Labrador

| registered = 422,202

| turnout = 277,579 (65.75%){{cite web |title=Election Night Results Provinces & Territories |url=https://enr.elections.ca/Provinces.aspx?lang=e |access-date=2025-05-27 |website=Elections Canada}}

| image1 = {{CSS image crop|Image = Mark Carney portrait February 2020.jpg|bSize = 130|cWidth = 120|cHeight = 160|oTop = 0|oLeft = 5}}

| colour1 = {{Canadian party colour|CA|Liberal|nohash}}

| leader1 = Mark Carney

| party1 = {{Canadian party colour|CA|Liberal|name}}

| leader_since1 = March 9, 2025

| last_election1 = 6 seats, 47.7%

| seats_before1 = 6

| seats1 = 4

| seat_change1 = {{decrease}} 2

| popular_vote1 = 150,011

| percentage1 = 54.0%

| swing1 = {{increase}} 6.3%

| image2 = {{CSS image crop|Image= Pierre Poilievre in 2023 (edited).jpg|bSize = 120|cWidth = 120|cHeight = 160|oTop = 0|oLeft = 0}}

| colour2 = {{Canadian party colour|CA|Conservative|nohash}}

| leader2 = Pierre Poilievre

| party2 = {{Canadian party colour|CA|Conservative|name}}

| leader_since2 = September 10, 2022

| last_election2 = 1 seat, 32.5%

| seats_before2 = 1

| seats2 = 3

| seat_change2 = {{increase}} 2

| popular_vote2 = 110,321

| percentage2 = 39.7%

| swing2 = {{increase}} 7.2%

| image3 = {{CSS image crop|Image = Jagmeet Singh in Brantford 2022 2 (cropped3).jpg|bSize = 120|cWidth = 120|cHeight = 160|oTop = 0|oLeft = 0}}

| colour3 = {{Canadian party colour|CA|NDP|nohash}}

| leader3 = Jagmeet Singh

| leader_since3 = October 1, 2017

| party3 = {{Canadian party colour|CA|NDP|name}}

| last_election3 = 0 seats, 17.4%

| seats_before3 = 0

| seats3 = 0

| seat_change3 = {{same}} 0

| popular_vote3 = 15,282

| percentage3 = 5.5%

| swing3 = {{decrease}} 11.9%

| map_image =

| map_size =

| map_caption =

| title = Prime Minister

| before_election = Mark Carney

| before_party = {{Canadian party colour|CA|Liberal|name}}

}}

In the 2025 Canadian federal election, 7 members of Parliament were elected to the House of Commons from the province of Newfoundland and Labrador (2.0% of all members). The Liberals won 4 seats and the Conservatives won 3.{{Cite web |date=April 28, 2025 |title=Here's how the 2025 federal election played out in N.L. |url=https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/nl-federal-election-results-2025-1.7520581 |website=CBC News}}{{cite web |title=NL Representation Near Evenly Split Between Liberals and Conservatives as House of Commons Reopens |url=https://vocm.com/2025/05/26/nl-representation-near-evenly-split-between-liberals-and-conservatives-as-house-of-commons-reopens/ |access-date=2025-05-27 |website=VOCM}}

2022 electoral redistribution

The 2025 Canadian federal election was the first election to utilize the electoral districts established following the 2022 Canadian federal electoral redistribution. The House of Commons increased from 338 seats to 343 seats, although Newfoundland and Labrador did not gain or lose any of their 7 seats. Under this redistribution, the average population per constituency in Newfoundland and Labrador is 72,935 (according to the 2021 Canadian census), which is 34,913 fewer people per electoral district than the national average.{{cite press release|title=New House of Commons Seat Allocation |url=https://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=med&dir=pre&document=jul0822&lang=e|access-date=July 8, 2022 |publisher=Elections Canada|date=July 8, 2022|location=Gatineau|archive-date=July 8, 2022|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220708203449/https://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=med&dir=pre&document=jul0822&lang=e|url-status=live}}

Predictions

{{See also|Opinion polling for the 2025 Canadian federal election}}

class="wikitable sortable mw-datatable" style="text-align:center;font-size:90%;line-height:14px;"

style="height:40px;"

! style="width:105px;" rowspan="2"| Polling firm

! style="width:105px;" rowspan="2"| Last date
of polling

! rowspan="2"| Link

! style="width:40px;"| LPC

! style="width:40px;"| CPC

! style="width:40px;"| NDP

! style="width:40px;"| GPC

! style="width:40px;"| PPC

! rowspan="2" style="width:40px" | Others

! rowspan="2"| Margin
of error{{efn|name=MOE| In cases when linked poll details distinguish between the margin of error associated with the total sample of respondents (including undecided and non-voters) and that of the subsample of decided/leaning voters, the former is included in the table. Also not included is the margin of error created by rounding to the nearest whole number or any margin of error from methodological sources. Most online polls (because of their opt-in method of recruiting panelists which results in a non-random sample) cannot have a margin of error. In such cases, shown is what the margin of error would be for a survey using a random probability-based sample of equivalent size.}}

! rowspan="2"| Sample
size{{efn|name=sample|Refers to the total, "raw" sample size, including undecided and non-voters, and before demographic weighting is applied. Fractions in parentheses apply to rolling polls (see below) and indicate the proportion of the sample that is independent from the previous poll in the series.}}

! rowspan="2"| Polling method{{efn|name=method|"Telephone" refers to traditional telephone polls conducted by live interviewers; "IVR" refers to automated Interactive Voice Response polls conducted by telephone; "online" refers to polls conducted exclusively over the internet; "telephone/online" refers to polls which combine results from both telephone and online surveys, or for which respondents are initially recruited by telephone and then asked to complete an online survey. "Rolling" polls contain overlapping data from one poll to the next.}}

! rowspan="2"| Lead

class="sorttop"

! style="background:{{Canadian party colour|CA|Liberal}};" data-sort-type="number"|

! style="background:{{Canadian party colour|CA|Conservative}};" data-sort-type="number"|

! style="background:{{Canadian party colour|CA|NDP}};" data-sort-type="number"|

! style="background:{{Canadian party colour|CA|Green}};" data-sort-type="number"|

! style="background:{{Canadian party colour|CA|PPC}};" data-sort-type="number"|

Narrative Research

https://narrativeresearch.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/24-3-Federal-Voting-Intentions-FINAL.pdf

{{Party shading/Conservative (Canada)}}|45

± 2.6 pp

350

Telephone

{{Party shading/Conservative (Canada)}} |13

Abacus Data

{{cite web|url=https://abacusdata.ca/federal-conservatives-lead-by-9-in-newfoundland-and-labrador/|title=Federal Conservatives lead by 9 in Newfoundland and Labrador|date=September 28, 2023|access-date=September 28, 2023|archive-date=September 29, 2023|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230929171709/https://abacusdata.ca/federal-conservatives-lead-by-9-in-newfoundland-and-labrador/|url-status=live}}

{{Party shading/Conservative (Canada)}}|42

± 4.5 pp

500

Online

{{Party shading/Conservative (Canada)}} |9

=Summary=

class="wikitable" style="text-align:center"

!rowspan="2"|Source !!colspan="6"|Ranking

{{Canadian party colour|CA|Liberal|background}} align="center" |Lib

|{{Canadian party colour|CA|Conservative|background}} align="center" |Con

!As of

338Canada{{cite web |title=Atlantic Canada |url=https://338canada.com/atl.htm |website=338Canada |access-date=23 April 2025}}

| 23 April 2025

Summary of results

class=wikitable style="text-align:right;"
colspan=2\|Party !Votes !Vote % !Vote {{abbr\|+/-\|Change from 2021 election}} !Seats !Seat {{abbr\|+/-\|Change from the dissolution of the 44th Canadian Parliament}}
{{Canadian party colour\|CA\|Liberal\|row-name}} \| 150,011 \|style="text-align:center;"\| {{percentage bar\|54.0\|c={{Canadian party colour\|CA\|Liberal}}\|width=150}} \|style="text-align:left;"\| {{increase}} 6.3pp \|style="text-align:center;"\| {{Composition bar\|4\|7\|hex={{Canadian party colour\|CA\|Liberal}}\|width=200\|per=2}} \|style="text-align:left;"\| {{decrease}} 2 {{Canadian party colour\|CA\|Conservative\|row-name}} \| 110,321 \|style="text-align:center;"\| {{percentage bar\|39.7\|c={{Canadian party colour\|CA\|Conservative}}\|width=150}} \|style="text-align:left;"\| {{increase}} 7.2pp \|style="text-align:center;"\| {{Composition bar\|3\|7\|hex={{Canadian party colour\|CA\|Conservative}}\|width=200\|per=2}} \|style="text-align:left;"\| {{increase}} 2 {{Canadian party colour\|CA\|NDP\|row-name}} \| 15,282 \|style="text-align:center;"\| {{percentage bar\|5.5\|c={{Canadian party colour\|CA\|NDP}}\|width=150}} \|style="text-align:left;"\| {{decrease}} 11.9pp \|style="text-align:center;"\| {{Composition bar\|0\|7\|hex={{Canadian party colour\|CA\|NDP}}\|width=200\|per=2}} \|style="text-align:left;"\| {{same}} 0 {{Canadian party colour\|CA\|PPC\|row-name}} \| 535 \|style="text-align:center;"\| {{percentage bar\|0.2\|c={{Canadian party colour\|CA\|PPC}}\|width=150}} \|style="text-align:left;"\| {{decrease}} 2.2pp \|style="text-align:center;"\| {{Composition bar\|0\|7\|hex={{Canadian party colour\|CA\|PPC}}\|width=200\|per=2}} \|style="text-align:left;"\| {{same}} 0 {{Canadian party colour\|CA\|Green\|row-name}} \| 299 \|style="text-align:center;"\| {{percentage bar\|0.1\|c={{Canadian party colour\|CA\|Green}}\|width=150}} \|style="text-align:left;"\| {{increase}} 0.1pp \|style="text-align:center;"\| {{Composition bar\|0\|7\|hex={{Canadian party colour\|CA\|Green}}\|width=200\|per=2}} \|style="text-align:left;"\| {{same}} 0 {{Canadian party colour\|CA\|Independent\|row-name}} \| 637 \|style="text-align:center;"\| {{percentage bar\|0.2\|c={{Canadian party colour\|CA\|Independent}}\|width=150}} \|style="text-align:left;"\| {{increase}} 0.2pp \|style="text-align:center;"\| {{Composition bar\|0\|7\|hex={{Canadian party colour\|CA\|Independent}}\|width=200\|per=2}} \|style="text-align:left;"\| {{same}} 0 {{Canadian party colour\|CA\|Other\|row-name}} \| 494 \|style="text-align:center;"\| {{percentage bar\|0.2\|c={{Canadian party colour\|CA\|Other}}\|width=150}} \|style="text-align:left;"\| {{increase}} 0.2pp \|style="text-align:center;"\| {{Composition bar\|0\|7\|hex={{Canadian party colour\|CA\|Other}}\|width=200\|per=2}} \|style="text-align:left;"\| {{same}} 0
colspan="2" \| Total ! 277,579 ! {{percentage bar\|100\|c={{Canadian party colour\|CA\|Coalition}}\|width=150}} ! – ! {{Composition bar\|7\|7\|hex={{Canadian party colour\|CA\|Coalition}}\|width=200\|per=2}} ! –

class=wikitable style="text-align:right;"

colspan=2|Party

!Votes

!Vote %

!Vote {{abbr|+/-|Change from 2021 election}}

!Seats

!Seat {{abbr|+/-|Change from the dissolution of the 44th Canadian Parliament}}

| 150,011

|style="text-align:center;"| {{percentage bar|54.0|c={{Canadian party colour|CA|Liberal}}|width=150}}

|style="text-align:left;"| {{increase}} 6.3pp

|style="text-align:center;"| {{Composition bar|4|7|hex={{Canadian party colour|CA|Liberal}}|width=200|per=2}}

|style="text-align:left;"| {{decrease}} 2

| 110,321

|style="text-align:center;"| {{percentage bar|39.7|c={{Canadian party colour|CA|Conservative}}|width=150}}

|style="text-align:left;"| {{increase}} 7.2pp

|style="text-align:center;"| {{Composition bar|3|7|hex={{Canadian party colour|CA|Conservative}}|width=200|per=2}}

|style="text-align:left;"| {{increase}} 2

| 15,282

|style="text-align:center;"| {{percentage bar|5.5|c={{Canadian party colour|CA|NDP}}|width=150}}

|style="text-align:left;"| {{decrease}} 11.9pp

|style="text-align:center;"| {{Composition bar|0|7|hex={{Canadian party colour|CA|NDP}}|width=200|per=2}}