2025 papal conclave papabili
{{Short description|Cardinals considered likely to become pope}}
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Media worldwide first published speculation on the next pope to be elected at the 2025 papal conclave on the day of Pope Francis's death, 21 April 2025;{{efn|Attributed to multiple references:{{Cite news |last=Sherwood |first=Harriet |date=21 April 2025 |title=Who will be the next pope? Some potential candidates to succeed Francis |url=https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/apr/21/who-next-pope-francis-potential-candidates-succeed |access-date=21 April 2025 |work=The Guardian |issn=0261-3077}}{{Cite web|url=https://www.rfi.fr/en/international-news/20250421-the-papabili-15-potential-successors-to-pope-francis|title=15 potential successors to Pope Francis|date=21 April 2025|access-date=21 April 2025|website=RFI|agency=Agence France-Presse}}{{Cite news |last=McGarry |first=Patsy |title=Who will be the next pope after Francis and how does the process work? |url=https://www.irishtimes.com/world/2025/04/21/who-will-be-the-next-pope-after-francis-and-how-does-the-process-work/ |url-access=subscription |access-date=21 April 2025 |newspaper=The Irish Times}}{{Cite web|url=https://uscatholic.org/articles/202503/the-12-cardinals-who-might-succeed-pope-francis/ |publisher=Claretians|title=The 12 cardinals who might succeed Pope Francis|first=Don|last=Clemmer|date=11 March 2025|access-date=21 April 2025}}{{cite news|title=Chi sarà il prossimo Papa? I nomi papabili per il dopo Francesco|date=21 April 2025|first=Enrico|last=Cicchetti|url=https://www.ilfoglio.it/chiesa/2025/04/21/news/chi-sara-il-prossimo-papa-i-nomi-papabili-per-il-dopo-francesco-7437756/|access-date=29 April 2025|work=Il Foglio}}}} the subject has remained of intense global interest since.{{Cite web|url=https://www.americamagazine.org/faith/2025/05/01/papabile-conclave-new-pope-cardinals-list-250546|title=The new pope: How journalists (and cardinals) come up with their list of candidates|date=May 1, 2025|website=America Magazine}}{{Cite web|url=https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/new-pope-candidates-conclave-2025-b2742200.html|title=Who could be the new Pope? The cardinals who might succeed Francis|date=May 1, 2025|website=The Independent}}{{Cite news|url=https://www.economist.com/interactive/graphic-detail/2025/05/04/our-papal-tracker-would-you-bet-money-on-the-next-pope|title=Our papal tracker: would you bet money on the next pope?|newspaper=The Economist }}{{Cite web|url=https://breakingac.com/news/2025/may/06/best-pope-betting-strategies-conclave-season/|title=Best Pope betting strategies for conclave season|website=Breaking AC}} On 8 May, Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost was elected Pope, taking the papal name Leo XIV.
Background
{{main|List of papal conclaves}}
Gambling on papal conclaves goes back at least to the 16th-century, and the word papabile at least to the 15th, since it is found in the Catholicon Anglicum.{{Cite book|last=Herrtage|first=Sidney John Hervon|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=I7wKAAAAYAAJ&q=papabilis|title=Catholicon Anglicum: An English-Latin Wordbook, Dated 1483|date=1882|publisher=By E. Pickard Hall, M.A. and J.H. Stacy|pages=268|language=en|access-date=21 December 2021|archive-date=12 December 2022|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20221212193801/https://books.google.com/books?id=I7wKAAAAYAAJ&q=papabilis|url-status=live}}
2025 ''Papabili''
{{main|Papabile}}
Observers of papal elections consider, by a variety of criteria,{{Cite web|url=https://www.liberation.fr/international/europe/vatican-qui-sont-les-15-papabile-les-plus-en-vue-pour-succeder-a-francois-20250505_K3Y3YXT7QBF7LOYFDCK63SMWWQ/?utm_medium=Social&at_medium=Social+Media&at_campaign=Bluesky&utm_source=Bluesky&at_platform=Bluesky#Echobox=1746432858-1|title=Vatican : qui sont les 15 «papabili» les plus en vue pour succéder à François|first1=Laure|last1=Bretton|first2=Célian|last2=Macé|first3=Abel|last3=Berthomier|website=Libération}}{{Cite web|url=https://www.ncronline.org/vatican/meet-12-men-who-could-be-pope|title=The NCR papal front-runners: Meet 12 men who could be pope|first=Christopher|last=White|website=National Catholic Reporter}} some cardinals to be more likely to become pope than others{{snd}}these are the {{lang|it|papabili}} (singular: {{lang|it|papabile}}), an Italian word loosely translated as 'pope-able'. However, conclaves have not always chosen one of the {{lang|it|papabili}}. Prior to their elections, Francis was considered to be too old and John Paul II was not considered to be in the running.{{cite web |title=Which cardinals are seen as contenders to be the next pope?|date=21 April 2025 |url=https://apnews.com/article/next-pope-contenders-list-101d68d61be2401a85310e34b45371a9 |work=Associated Press News |access-date=22 April 2025}} This is reflected in the saying "He who enters the conclave as pope, leaves it as a cardinal",{{Cite web |last=Allen Jr. |first=John L. |date=13 March 2013 |title=Papabile of the Day: The Men Who Could Be Pope |url=https://www.ncronline.org/blogs/ncr-today/papabile-day-men-who-could-be-pope-12 |access-date=16 October 2023 |website=National Catholic Reporter |language=en}} although, in reality, the frontrunner is often elected pope, as was the case in the 1939, 1963, and 2005 conclaves.{{cite news | access-date = 29 April 2025 | url =https://www.ncronline.org/opinion/ncr-voices/what-history-tells-us-about-conclaves | date = 29 April 2025 | title = The conclave cliché that is wrong. What history tells us about conclaves | first= Michael Sean | last = Winters | work = Nation Catholic Reporter }} Vatican expert Anna Rowlands avers that any predictions are currently based on "pure speculation".{{cite web|last=Fox|first=Aine|title=Conclave choice for the next pope 'totally unpredictable', says Vatican expert|website=The Independent|date=25 April 2025|access-date=25 April 2025|url=https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/new-pope-conclave-francis-death-cardinal-who-b2739375.html}}
The following cardinal electors{{Cite web |last1=Walsh |first1=Brendan |last2=Hudson |first2=Patrick |last3=Davies |first3=Bess Twiston |date=May 2, 2025 |title=Who will be the next pope? We profile the conclave – from Arborelius to Zuppi |url=https://www.thetablet.co.uk/features/next-pope-papabile/ |website=The Tablet}} had been considered {{lang|it|papabile}} in the 2025 papal conclave by at least seven distinct media sources. Notably the odds given for Robert Prevost on Polymarket ranged from 0% to 3% throughout,{{Cite web|url=https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-next-pope?tid=1746730592205|title=Who will be the next Pope?|website=Polymarket}} whereas on numerous other markets he never breached 2%.{{Cite web |last=Bomey |first=Nathan |date=2025-05-08 |title=You could have made a fortune betting on an American pope |url=https://www.axios.com/2025/05/08/robert-prevost-pope-prediction-markets |access-date=2025-05-08 |website=Axios |language=en}}
Notes
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