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2026 United States Senate election in Iowa

{{short description|none}}

{{for|related races|2026 United States Senate elections}}

{{Use mdy dates|date=January 2025}}

{{Infobox election

| election_name = 2026 United States Senate election in Iowa

| country = Iowa

| type = presidential

| ongoing = yes

| previous_election = 2020 United States Senate election in Iowa

| previous_year = 2020

| election_date = November 3, 2026

| next_election = 2032 United States Senate election in Iowa

| next_year = 2032

| turnout =

| party1 = Republican Party (United States)

| party2 = Democratic Party (United States)

| title = U.S. senator

| before_election = Joni Ernst

| before_party = Republican Party (United States)

| after_election =

| after_party =

}}

{{ElectionsIA}}

The 2026 United States Senate election in Iowa will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Iowa. Two-term Republican Joni Ernst was re-elected in 2020 with 51.8% of the vote and is running for re-election to a third term.

Background

After voting for President Barack Obama in both 2008 and 2012, Iowa has trended increasingly Republican in subsequent years and is now considered a moderately to strongly red state at the federal and state level. Republican nominee Donald Trump won Iowa in 2020 by 8 percentage points, and in 2024 grew his margin to 13 percentage points. Republicans control every statewide executive office (except the state auditor's office), supermajorities in both chambers of the state legislature, and the entire congressional delegation. {{Cite web |last=Ta |first=Linh |date=2024-11-06 |title=Iowa remains solidly Republican |url=https://www.axios.com/local/des-moines/2024/11/06/iowa-remains-red-despite-iowa-poll-republicans |access-date=2024-12-13 |website=Axios |language=en}}

Senator Joni Ernst was first elected in the red wave of 2014, defeating former U.S. Representative Bruce Braley by about 8 percentage points. She was re-elected in 2020 defeating Theresa Greenfield by 6.5 percentage points in what was expected to be a dead heat.{{Cite web |last=Barrett |first=Ted |date=2014-11-05 |title=Joni Ernst wins Iowa Senate race |url=https://www.cnn.com/2014/11/05/politics/iowa-senate-digital/index.html |access-date=2024-12-13 |website=CNN |language=en}}{{Cite web |last=Pfannenstiel |first=Brianne |title='Six more years!': Republican U.S. Sen. Joni Ernst wins reelection, beating Democrat Theresa Greenfield |url=https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2020/11/02/iowa-election-results-us-senate-theresa-greenfield-joni-ernst/5997461002/ |access-date=December 13, 2024 |date=November 2, 2020 |website=The Des Moines Register |language=en-US}}

Republican primary

= Candidates =

== Declared ==

  • Joni Ernst, incumbent U.S. Senator (2015–present){{cite news |last1=Burns |first1=Douglas |title=Ernst seeking third term in U.S. Senate, but open to role in a Trump cabinet |url=https://iowacapitaldispatch.com/2024/05/30/ernst-seeking-third-term-in-u-s-senate-but-open-to-role-in-a-trump-cabinet/ |access-date=2 December 2024 |work=Iowa Capital Dispatch |date=30 May 2024}}
  • Joshua Smith, former vice chair of the Libertarian National Committee (2022–2023) and Libertarian candidate for president in 2024{{cite news |title=Joshua Smith to challenge Joni Ernst in GOP primary |first=Laura |last=Belin |work=Bleeding Heartland |date=December 9, 2024 |access-date=December 10, 2024 |url=https://www.bleedingheartland.com/2024/12/09/joshua-smith-to-challenge-joni-ernst-in-gop-primary/}}

== Publicly expressed interest ==

  • Steve Deace, radio talk show host{{Cite web |date=December 11, 2024 |last=Mutnick |first=Ally |title=For Trump’s allies, RINO-hunting season is in full swing|url=https://www.politico.com/news/2024/12/11/trump-republican-senate-dissent-00193663 |access-date=December 11, 2024 |website=Politico |language=en}}

== Potential ==

== Declined ==

  • Kari Lake, former KSAZ-TV news anchor, nominee for Governor of Arizona in 2022, and nominee for U.S. Senate in Arizona in 2024{{Cite web |last=Pfannenstiel |first=Sabine Martin and Brianne |title=Donald Trump supporter Kari Lake postpones Iowa homecoming for MAGA event |url=https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2025/01/27/trump-supporter-kari-lake-postpones-iowa-maga-event/77968045007/ |access-date=February 1, 2025 |date=January 27, 2025 |website=The Des Moines Register |quote=Speculation swirled among MAGA-minded Republicans in Iowa who suggested on social media that Lake would be a strong potential primary challenger to Ernst...Lake's spokesperson Alex Nicoll told The Arizona Republic after news of the event that she's not planning to be a political candidate. |language=en-US}}

= Endorsements =

{{Endorsements box

|title=Joni Ernst

|list=

Organizations

  • AIPAC{{Cite web |title=- AIPAC Political Portal |url=https://candidates.aipacpac.org/page/featured |access-date=2025-04-28 |website=candidates.aipacpac.org}}
  • Maggie's List{{cite web |title=Maggie’s List Announces First Round of 2026 Senate Endorsements |url=https://maggieslist.org/press/maggies-list-announces-first-round-of-2026-senate-endorsements |website=maggieslist.org |publisher=Maggie's List |access-date=March 27, 2025}}

}}

=Fundraising=

class="wikitable sortable"
colspan=4 |Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2025
style="text-align:center;"

!Candidate

!Raised

!Spent

!Cash on hand

{{party shading/Republican}}|Joni Ernst (R)

|$6,024,242

|$3,523,847

|$3,028,810

colspan="4" |Source: Federal Election Commission{{cite web |title=2026 Election United States Senate - Iowa |url=https://www.fec.gov/data/elections/senate/IA/2026/ |website=fec.gov |publisher=Federal Election Commission |access-date=April 23, 2025}}

=Polling=

{{hidden begin|titlestyle=background:#cff|title=Hypothetical polling|contentstyle=border:solid 1px silver; padding:8px; background:white;}}

Joni Ernst vs. Someone Else

class="wikitable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;"
valign=bottom

! Poll source

! Date(s)
administered

! Sample
size{{efn|Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear|name="Key"}}

! Margin
of error

! style="width:60px;"| Joni
Ernst

! style="width:60px;"| Someone
Else

! Undecided

style="text-align:left;"|Victory Insights{{cite web |title=NEW POLL: LESS THAN HALF OF IOWA REPUBLICANS SUPPORT JONI ERNST FOR US SENATE IN 2026|url=https://irp.cdn-website.com/07e08705/files/uploaded/PollReport_IA-2026_12-9-24.pdf |website=Victory Insights |publisher=Victory Insights}}

| December 6–7, 2024

| 600 (LV)

| N/A

| {{party shading/Republican}}|48%

| 27%

| 26%

{{hidden end}}

Democratic primary

=Candidates=

== Declared ==

  • Nathan Sage, market director for KNIA{{Cite web |last=Smith |first=Allan |date=2025-04-16 |title=Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst gets her first Democratic challenger for 2026 |url=https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/iowa-sen-joni-ernst-first-democratic-challenger-2026-nathan-sage-rcna201299 |access-date=2025-04-16 |website=NBC News |language=en}}

== Publicly expressed interest ==

  • J. D. Scholten, state representative from the 1st district (2023–present) and nominee for {{ushr|IA|4}} in 2018 and 2020{{cite news |last1=Gruber-Miller |first1=Stephen |title=These 3 Iowa Democratic lawmakers are considering running for US Senate against Joni Ernst |url=https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2025/04/01/iowa-democrats-zach-wahls-jd-scholten-josh-turek-considering-running-us-senate-joni-ernst/82746797007/ |access-date=April 1, 2025 |work=The Des Moines Register |date=April 1, 2025}}
  • Joshua Turek, state representative from the 20th district (2023–present)
  • Zach Wahls, state senator from the 43rd district (2019–present) and former Minority Leader of the Iowa Senate (2020–2023){{cite news |last1=Price |first1=Dave |title=Inside Iowa Politics Exclusive: State senator confirms possible U.S. senate run |url=https://www.ktiv.com/2025/03/29/inside-iowa-politics-exclusive-state-senator-confirms-possible-us-senate-run/ |access-date=29 March 2025 |work=KTIV |date=28 March 2025}}

Libertarian primary

= Candidates =

== Formed exploratory committee ==

  • Thomas Laehn, Greene County Attorney{{cite news |last1=Bellin |first1=Laura |title=Libertarian Thomas Laehn exploring U.S. Senate bid in Iowa |url=https://www.bleedingheartland.com/2024/08/05/libertarian-thomas-laehn-exploring-u-s-senate-bid-in-iowa/ |access-date=2 December 2024 |work=Bleeding Heartland |date=5 August 2024}}

=Fundraising=

class="wikitable sortable"
colspan=4 |Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2025
style="text-align:center;"

!Candidate

!Raised

!Spent

!Cash on hand

{{party shading/Libertarian}}|Thomas Laehn (L)

|$24,897

|$7,964

|$16,932

colspan="4" |Source: Federal Election Commission

General election

= Predictions =

class="wikitable"

!Source

!Ranking

!As of

align="left" |Inside Elections{{Cite web |title=Senate Ratings |url=https://www.insideelections.com/ratings/senate |access-date=January 14, 2025 |website=Inside Elections |language=en}}

| {{USRaceRating|Solid|R}}

|Feb 20, 2025

align="left" |The Cook Political Report{{Cite web |title=2026 CPR Senate Race Ratings|url=https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings |access-date=February 11, 2025 |website=Cook Political Report }}

| {{USRaceRating|Solid|R}}

|Feb 13, 2025

align="left"|Sabato's Crystal Ball{{cite web |title=2026 Senate ratings |url=https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2026-senate/ |website=Sabato's Crystal Ball |access-date=February 13, 2025}}

| {{USRaceRating|Safe|R}}

|Mar 12, 2025

[https://www.racetothewh.com/senate/26 Race To The WH]{{Cite web |title=2026 Senate Forecast |url=https://www.racetothewh.com/senate/26 |access-date=2025-03-19 |website=Race to the WH |language=en-US}}

|{{USRaceRating|Likely|R}}

|Apr 27, 2025

Notes

{{notelist}}

References

{{reflist}}

External links

;Official campaign websites

  • [https://joniernst.com/ Joni Ernst (R) for Senate]
  • [https://laehn4iowa.org/ Thomas Laehn (L) for Senate]
  • [https://www.sageforsenate.com/ Nathan Sage (D) for Senate]
  • [https://joshuasmith4senate.com/ Joshua Smith (R) for Senate]

{{2026 United States elections}}

Category:United States Senate elections in Iowa

Iowa

United States Senate