3.5% rule
{{short description|Concept of population that can overthrow a government}}
The 3.5% rule is a concept in political science that states that when 3.5% of the population of a country protest nonviolently against a government, that government is likely to fall from power. The rule was formulated in 2011 by researchers Erica Chenoweth and Maria Stephan, in their book, Why Civil Resistance Works: The Strategic Logic of Nonviolent Conflict.{{cite book|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=XHPneXFzTeMC&q=3.5+percent+rule|title=Why Civil Resistance Works: The Strategic Logic of Nonviolent Conflict|first1=Erica|last1=Chenoweth|first2=Maria|last2=Stephan|date=2011|publisher=Columbia University Press|isbn=978-0-231-15682-0}}
Formulation
{{multiple image|image1=Erica Chenoweth.png|image2=Maria Stephan Seizing the Moment for Peace in a Disrupted World (cropped).jpg|total_width=300|footer=Erica Chenoweth and Maria Stephan originated the 3.5% rule.}}
Chenoweth and Stephan studied the success rates of civil resistance efforts from 1900 to 2006, focusing on the major violent and nonviolent efforts to bring about regime change during that time.{{Cite news |author=David Robson |title=The '3.5% rule': How a small minority can change the world |url=https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20190513-it-only-takes-35-of-people-to-change-the-world |work=BBC |date=14 May 2019 |access-date=13 November 2019}}{{cite book|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=6rscEAAAQBAJ&q=3.5+percent+rule|title=Civil Resistance: What Everyone Needs to Know|first=Erica|last=Chenoweth|date=2021|publisher=Oxford University Press|isbn=9780190244392|pages=114–9}} By comparing the success rates of 323 violent and nonviolent campaigns, Stephan and Chenoweth demonstrate that only 26% of violent revolutions were successful, whereas 53% of nonviolent campaigns were successful.{{cite web|title=Success of Nonviolent Revolution|url=http://www.insidehighered.com/audio/2012/11/06/success-nonviolent-revolution|work=Academic Minute|publisher=Inside Higher Ed|accessdate=10 April 2020}} Of the 25 largest movements they studied, 20 were nonviolent, and they found that nonviolent movements attracted four times as many participants on average than violent movements. They also demonstrated that nonviolent movements tended to precede the development of more democratic regimes than violent movements.{{cite journal |first=Jason |last=Rineheart |title=Erica Chenoweth and Maria J. Stephan. Why Civil Resistance Works: The Strategic Logic of Nonviolent Conflict |journal=Perspectives on Terrorism |volume=6 |issue=1 |date=1 March 2012}}{{cite journal |first=Robert Allen |last=Kezer |title=Erica Chenoweth & Maria J. Stephan (2011). Why civil resistance works: The strategic logic of nonviolent conflict. New York: Columbia University Press |journal=Conflict & Communication Online |volume=11 |issue=1 |date=1 April 2012}}
The authors coined a rule about the level of participation necessary for a movement to succeed, called the "3.5% rule": nearly every movement with active participation from at least 3.5% of the population succeeded.{{Cite news |author=Editorial |title=The Guardian view on Extinction Rebellion: numbers alone won't create change |url=https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oct/21/the-guardian-view-on-extinction-rebellion-numbers-alone-wont-create-change |work=The Guardian |date=21 October 2019 |access-date=10 April 2020}}{{Cite news |author=Erica Chenoweth |title=It may only take 3.5% of the population to topple a dictator – with civil resistance |url=https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/feb/01/worried-american-democracy-study-activist-techniques |work=The Guardian |date=1 February 2017 |access-date=13 November 2019}}. All of the campaigns that achieved that threshold were nonviolent.{{cite web|last1=Chenoweth|first1=Erica|title=My Talk at TEDxBoulder: Civil Resistance and the "3.5% Rule"|url=https://rationalinsurgent.com/2013/11/04/my-talk-at-tedxboulder-civil-resistance-and-the-3-5-rule/|website=RationalInsurgent.org|publisher=Rational Insurgent|accessdate=2016-10-10|date=2013-11-04}}
=Appraisals=
Ron Pagnucco writes approvingly of the research underlying the rule, while also pointing out that "such large protests also may strengthen the hand of elite reformers in relation to hardliners in an authoritarian regimes", as opposed to simply contributing to declining support for the rulers.{{cite journal|url=https://digitalcommons.csbsju.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1130&context=social_encounters|title=Review of Civil Resistance: What Everyone Needs to Know|first=Ron|last=Pagnucco|journal=The Journal of Social Encounters|volume=6|issue=1|article-number=21|pages=177–81|date=2022|doi=10.69755/2995-2212.1130}} Kyle R. Matthews argues that Extinction Rebellion has misused the research, because "Chenoweth and Stephan's data relates to state-wide systemic change, mainly overthrowing autocratic governments, and does not apply to change in liberal democratic states."{{cite journal|url=https://www.researchgate.net/publication/346512007|title=Social movements and the (mis)use of research: Extinction Rebellion and the 3.5% rule|first=Kyle R.|last=Matthews|journal=Interface: A Journal for and About Social Movements|volume=12|issue=1|pages=591–615|date=July 2020}}
In protests
The 3.5% rule has been cited as a goal by activists in the climate movement, who have argued that if that this many people join the movement, change will follow.{{cite news|url=https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2021/11/cop26-climate-activism/620641/|title=Can 3.5 Percent Save the Planet?|first=Yasmeen|last=Serhan|journal=The Atlantic|date=November 8, 2021|accessdate=June 15, 2025}} The Economist writes in an editorial that such a level of participation is currently very far from having been achieved.{{cite news|url=https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2021/11/17/what-is-the-35-rule-beloved-of-climate-protesters|title=What is the "3.5% rule" beloved of climate protesters?|author=Editorial|newspaper=The Economist|date=November 17, 2021|accessdate=June 15, 2025}}
In 2025, the 3.5% rule became prominent in protests against Donald Trump, including those concerning US immigration policy.{{cite web|url=https://impakter.com/what-the-3-5-rule-tells-us-about-protest-success/|title=What the 3.5% Rule Tells Us About Protest Success|first=Richard|last=Seifman|website=Impakter|date=June 11, 2025|accessdate=June 15, 2025}} Members of the 50501 movement organized the Hands Off protests of April 5, 2025, issuing a statement that said, in part: "April 5 was our fourth national day of action, and it won't be our last. We are committed to building our peaceful People's Movement and achieving 3.5% participation. History shows that when just 3.5% of the population engages in sustained peaceful resistance – transformative change is inevitable."{{cite news|url=https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2025/04/05/anti-Trump-protests-nationwide/6321743859607/|title=Organizers say millions turn out for anti-Trump 'Hands Off' rallies nationwide|first=Allen|last=Cone|publisher=United Press International|date=April 8, 2025|accessdate=June 15, 2025}}{{cite news|url=https://sanfernandosun.com/2025/04/09/hands-off-rally-organizers-plan-for-more-protests-throughout-the-year/|title=Hands Off! Rally Organizers Plan for More Protests Throughout the Year|first=Gabriel|last=Arizon|newspaper=San Fernando Valley Sun|date=April 9, 2025|accessdate=June 15, 2025}}