Adam Scaife
{{Short description|British meteorologist (born 1970)}}
{{Use dmy dates|date=March 2018}}
{{Use British English|date=March 2018}}
Adam A. Scaife is a British physicist and head of long range prediction at the Met Office.{{cite web|url=http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/people/adam-scaife |title=Prof. Adam Scaife |publisher=Met Office |date=2014-04-04 |accessdate=2015-10-16}} He is also a professor at Exeter University.{{cite web|url=https://mathematics.exeter.ac.uk/people/profile/index.php?username=aas224 |title=Prof Adam Scaife - CEMPS - - Mathematics, University of Exeter |publisher=Emps.exeter.ac.uk |date= |accessdate=2015-10-16}}
Scaife carries out research into long range weather forecasting and computer modelling of the climate and has published over 300 peer reviewed studies{{cite web|url=https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=I4Xnl-oAAAAJ&hl=en|title=Google Scholar - Adam Scaife}} on atmospheric dynamics, computer modelling and climate as well as popular science {{cite web|url=https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9781782407546&i=stripbooks&linkCode=qs |title=30s Meteorology}}
and academic books{{cite web|url=https://www.cambridge.org/gb/academic/subjects/earth-and-environmental-science/atmospheric-science-and-meteorology/dynamics-and-predictability-large-scale-high-impact-weather-and-climate-events |title=Dynamics and Predictability of Large-Scale, High-Impact Weather and Climate Events}} on meteorology.
Career
Scaife studied Natural Sciences (Physics) at Cambridge University (1988–1991), Environmental Science at Surrey University (1991–1992) and was awarded a PhD in Meteorology from Reading University (1999, academic advisor Prof Ian N James).
He joined the Met Office in 1992 where he worked on climate dynamics and the development of improved computer models of the climate.{{cite journal |title=Impact of a Spectral Gravity Wave Parameterization on the Stratosphere in the Met Office Unified Model |volume=59 |issue=9 |journal=Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences |pages=1473–1489 |year=2002 |last1=Scaife |first1=Adam A. |last2=Butchart |first2=Neal |last3=Warner |first3=Christopher |last4=Swinbank |first4=Richard}}{{cite journal |title=Realistic Simulations of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in a simulation of the global climate |doi=10.1029/2000GL011625 |volume=27 |issue=21 |journal=Geophysical Research Letters |pages=3481–3484 |year=2000 |last1=Scaife |first1=Adam A. |last2=Butchart |first2=Neal |last3=Warner |first3=Christopher |last4=Stainforth |first4=David |last5=Norton |first5=Warwick |last6=Austin |first6=John }}{{cite journal |title=Removal of chlorofluorocarbons by increased mass exchange between the stratosphere and troposphere in a changing climate |doi=10.1038/35071047 |volume=410 |journal=Nature |pages=799–802 |year=2000 |last1=Butchart |first1=Neal |last2=Scaife |first2=Adam}}{{cite journal |title=Improved Atlantic winter blocking in a climate model |doi=10.1029/2011GL049573 |volume=38 |journal=Geophysical Research Letters |pages=L23703 |year=2011 |last1=Scaife |first1=Adam A. |last2=Copsey |first2=Dan |last3=Gordon |first3=Chris |last4=Harris |first4=Chris |last5=Hinton |first5=Tim |last6=Keeley |first6=Sarah |last7=O'Neill |first7=Alan |last8=Roberts |first8=Malcolm |last9=Williams |first9=Keith|doi-access=free }} He also joined Exeter University as Professor in Applied Maths in 2017.
Many of his studies show how predictable factors{{cite web|author=Nature Geoscience |url=https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-022-01037-7/ |title=Angular Momentum, Length of Day and Climate Predictions |publisher=Nature|accessdate=2023-09-29}}{{cite web|author=Science Media Centre |url=http://www.sciencemediacentre.org/the-el-nino-southern-oscillation/ |title=El Nino |publisher=Science Media Centre |accessdate=2015-12-20}}{{cite journal |title=A mechanism for lagged North Atlantic climate response to solar variability |doi=10.1002/grl.50099 |volume=40 |issue=2 |journal=Geophysical Research Letters |pages=434–439|bibcode=2013GeoRL..40..434S |year=2013 |last1=Scaife |first1=Adam A. |last2=Ineson |first2=Sarah |last3=Knight |first3=Jeff R. |last4=Gray |first4=Lesley |last5=Kodera |first5=Kunihiko |last6=Smith |first6=Doug M. |doi-access=free }}{{cite journal |title= Predictability of the quasi-biennial oscillation and its northern winter teleconnection on seasonal to decadal timescales |doi=10.1002/2013GL059160 |volume=41 |issue=5 |journal=Geophysical Research Letters |pages=1752–1758|bibcode=2014GeoRL..41.1752S |year= 2014 |hdl= 10871/19674 |last1=Scaife |first1=Adam A. |last2=Athanassiadou |first2=Maria |last3=Andrews |first3=Martin |last4=Arribas |first4=Alberto |last5=Baldwin |first5=Mark |last6=Dunstone |first6=Nick |last7=Knight |first7=Jeff |last8=MacLachlan |first8=Craig |last9=Manzini |first9=Elisa |last10=Müller |first10=Wolfgang A. |last11=Pohlmann |first11=Holger |last12=Smith |first12=Doug |last13=Stockdale |first13=Tim |last14=Williams |first14=Andrew |hdl-access=free }}
affect weather from months to decades ahead. Since 2003 he has led teams of scientists in the Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, working on climate modeling and long range weather prediction. He now leads research and production of monthly, seasonal and decadal predictions at the Met Office.{{cite web |url=https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal |title=Monthly to Decadal Prediction |publisher=Met Office |accessdate=2020-07-01}}{{cite journal|title=Seasonal forecasting of tropical storms using the Met Office GloSea5 seasonal forecast system |doi=10.1002/qj.2516 |volume=141 |issue= 691|journal=Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society |pages=2206–2219|bibcode=2015QJRMS.141.2206C|last1 = Camp|first1 = J.|last2= Roberts|first2= M.|last3= MacLachlan|first3= C.|last4= Wallace|first4= E.|last5= Hermanson|first5= L.|last6= Brookshaw|first6= A.|last7= Arribas|first7= A.|last8= Scaife|first8= A. A.|year=2015 |doi-access= free}} Scaife and his team have made recent advances in long range weather forecasting{{cite journal |title=Skillful long-range prediction of European and North American winters |doi=10.1002/2014GL059637 |volume=41 |issue=7 |journal=Geophysical Research Letters |pages=2514–2519|bibcode=2014GeoRL..41.2514S |year=2014 |hdl=10871/34601 |url=https://ore.exeter.ac.uk/repository/bitstream/10871/34601/1/Scaifeetal_2014.pdf |last1=Scaife |first1=A. A. |last2=Arribas |first2=A. |last3=Blockley |first3=E. |last4=Brookshaw |first4=A. |last5=Clark |first5=R. T. |last6=Dunstone |first6=N. |last7=Eade |first7=R. |last8=Fereday |first8=D. |last9=Folland |first9=C. K. |last10=Gordon |first10=M. |last11=Hermanson |first11=L. |last12=Knight |first12=J. R. |last13=Lea |first13=D. J. |last14=MacLachlan |first14=C. |last15=Maidens |first15=A. |last16=Martin |first16=M. |last17=Peterson |first17=A. K. |last18=Smith |first18=D. |last19=Vellinga |first19=M. |last20=Wallace |first20=E. |last21=Waters |first21=J. |last22=Williams |first22=A. |hdl-access=free }} and have uncovered the paradox that current climate models are better at predicting the real world than they are at predicting themselves.{{cite journal|title=A Signal to Noise Paradox in Climate Science |doi=10.1038/s41612-018-0038-4 |volume=1 |journal= npj Climate and Atmospheric Science|year=2018 |last1=Scaife |first1=Adam A. |last2=Smith |first2=Doug |doi-access=free }} Scaife's recent research demonstrates a link between year to year climate predictions, subtle changes in the rotation rate of the Earth and hence the length of day.{{cite journal|title=Long-range predictability of extratropical climate and the length of day |doi=10.1038/s41561-022-01037-7 |volume=15 |journal= Nature Geoscience|year=2022 |last1=Scaife |first1=Adam A. |doi-access=free }}
Scaife was co-chair of the World Meteorological Organisation's Working Group on Seasonal to Interannual Prediction{{cite web|url=http://www.wcrp-climate.org/index.php/wgsip-overview|title=About WGSIP|work=Wcrp-climate.org|accessdate=2015-10-16}} and served as a member of the scientific steering group of the World Climate Research Programme's core project on the stratosphere and its role in climate.{{cite web|url=http://www.sparc-climate.org/|title=Home :: SPARC|author=SPARC|date=6 April 2010|work=Sparc-climate.org|accessdate=2015-10-16}} He is a fellow of the Institute of Physics{{cite web|url=http://www.iop.org/|title=Institute of Physics|work=IOP.org|accessdate=2019-06-28}} and the Royal Meteorological Society{{cite web|url=http://www.rmets.org/|title=Royal Meteorological Society|work=Rmets.org|accessdate=2015-10-16|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190602164750/https://www.rmets.org/|archive-date=2 June 2019|url-status=dead}} and co-led the World Meteorological Organisation's grand challenge on Near Term Climate Prediction.{{cite web|url=https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0359-7|title=Near-term Climate Prediction|first1=Yochanan |last1=Kushnir|first2=Adam |last2=Scaife }} Scaife has also served as member of the Royal Meteorological Society climate communications group,{{cite web|url=http://rmetspodcast.libsyn.com/episode-8-el-nio-interview-with-adam-scaife|work=Rmets.org |title=El Nino-Southern Oscillation|accessdate=2019-07-07}}{{cite web|url=https://www.rmets.org/news/does-variation-suns-output-affect-climate|work=Rmets.org |title=Solar Variability |accessdate=2019-07-07}} regularly comments on extreme climate events,{{cite web|url=https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/weather/12055959/UK-weather-2016-set-to-be-hottest-year-on-record-says-Met-Office.html |title=2016 Set to be Hottest Year on Record |publisher=Telegraph Newspaper |date= |accessdate=2015-10-16}}{{cite web|url=http://geographical.co.uk/nature/climate/item/1037-el-nino-is-back-in-town |title=El Niño is back in town |publisher=Geographical |date= |accessdate=2015-10-16}}{{cite web|author=Nicola Davis |url=https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/feb/11/why-has-it-rained-so-much-climate-change |title=Why has it rained so much in the UK – and is it climate change? | Environment |publisher=The Guardian |date=2014-02-11 |accessdate=2015-10-16}}{{cite web|url=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o848OpV1mqo|title=December 2015 record weather in the UK? |publisher=Met office |date=2015-12-31 |accessdate=2018-01-11}}{{cite news|url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-47144058|title=Warmest Decade|publisher=BBC News |date=6 February 2019|last1=McGrath|first1=Matt}}
and is often involved in communicating climate science to the public
.{{cite news|url=https://www.theguardian.com/science/2015/may/03/climate-change-myths-warming-ice-antarctic-arctic |title=Climate Science Myths |publisher=Guardian Newspaper |accessdate=2015-12-20|newspaper=The Guardian |date=2015-05-03 |last1=Devlin |first1=Hannah }}{{cite web|url=https://www.imdb.com/title/tt3912904/|title=Horizon: Season 50, Episode 14 : What's Wrong with Our Weather?|publisher=IMDb.com |accessdate=2015-10-16}}{{cite news|last=Briggs |first=Helen |url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-32815460 |title=El Nino could 'disrupt food markets' - BBC News |publisher=Bbc.co.uk |date= 2015-05-21|accessdate=2015-10-16|work=BBC News }}{{cite web|url=https://www.imdb.com/title/tt2335271/|title=Horizon: Season 48, Episode 13 : Global Weirding (27 March 2012)|publisher=IMDb.com|accessdate=2015-10-16}}{{cite web|url=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Aa_DSMJd114|title=Slowdown in Global Warming |publisher=Met Office |date=2017-09-19 |accessdate=2018-01-11}}{{cite web|url=https://www.theweatherclub.org.uk/node/492|title=El Nino explainer |publisher=Royal Meteorological Society |date=2018-06-08 |accessdate=2019-11-07}}{{cite web|url=https://www.manlitphil.ac.uk/events/predictability-beyond-weather-forecast|title=Predictability Beyond the Weather Forecast |publisher=Manchester Literary and Scientific Society |date=2018-12-11 |accessdate=2020-07-01}}
Awards
- Institute of Physics Edward Appleton Medal (2020){{cite web|url=https://www.iop.org/about/awards/2020-edward-appleton-medal-and-prize|title=Edward Appleton Medal 2020}}
- Royal Meteorological Society's Buchan Prize (2019){{cite web|url=https://www.rmets.org/awards-and-prizes-outstanding-contributions-published-societys-journals|title=The Buchan Prize 2019}}
- Copernicus Medal (2018){{cite web|url=https://www.copernicus-gesellschaft.org/medal.html|title=The Copernicus Medal}}{{cite web|url=https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2018/07/18/medal-for-met-mathematician/|title=Met Office Blog}}
- American Geophysical Union ASCENT Award (2016){{cite web|url=https://honors.agu.org/sfg-awardees/scaife-receives-2016-atmospheric-sciences-ascent-award/|title=Scaife Receives 2016 Atmospheric Sciences Ascent Award - Honors Program}}
- Royal Meteorological Society's Adrian Gill Award (2014){{cite web|url=http://www.rmets.org/our-activities/awards/adrian-gill-prize|title=Adrian Gill Prize|work=Rmets.org}}
- L.G. Groves Memorial prize (2013){{cite web|url=http://www.lggrovesawards.com/lg-groves-awards.html|title=LG Groves Memorial Prize}}
- Lloyds Science of Risk Prize for Climate Science (2011){{cite web|url=http://www.lloyds.com/~/media/files/the%20market/tools%20and%20resources/exposure%20management/science%20of%20risk/2011/post%20conference%20booklet%20final.pdf |title=Lloyd's Science of Risk : 2011 Conference and Winners |publisher=Lloyds.com }}
References
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{{University of Exeter|state=collapsed}}
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Category:British meteorologists
Category:UK Met Office staff and researchers
Category:Academics of the University of Exeter
Category:Alumni of the University of Surrey