Appeal to probability
{{short description|Type of formal fallacy}}
{{refimprove|date=January 2013}}
{{cleanup rewrite|the article is very stub-like. I tried to remove neglects of probability, however, the article should still include more information on the typical usage of the fallacy in real life. Currently, it consists only of the true but unmotivated statement that "possibly" is not the same as "probably" and that "probably" is not the same as "guaranteed"|date=January 2024}}
An appeal to probability (or appeal to possibility, also known as possibiliter ergo probabiliter, "possibly, therefore probably") is the logical fallacy of taking something for granted because it is possibly the case.{{sfn|Bennett}}{{sfn|Carrier|2012}} The fact that an event is possible does not imply that the event is probable, nor that the event was realized.
Example
A fallacious appeal to possibility:
:If it can happen {{small|(premise)}}.
:It will happen. {{small|(invalid conclusion)}}
:Something can go wrong {{small|(premise)}}.
:Therefore, something will go wrong {{small|(invalid conclusion)}}.
:
:If I do not bring my umbrella {{small|(premise)}}
:It will rain. {{small|(invalid conclusion)}}.
Murphy's law is a (typically deliberate, tongue-in-cheek) invocation of the fallacy.{{fact|date=November 2022}}
See also
References
=Notes=
{{reflist}}
=Bibliography=
{{refbegin}}
- {{citation |entry=Appeal to possibility |last=Bennett |first=Bo |title=Logically Fallacious |access-date=13 March 2021 |entry-url=https://www.logicallyfallacious.com/logicalfallacies/Appeal-to-Possibility}}
- {{citation |last=Carrier |first=Richard |title=Proving History: Bayes's Theorem and the Quest for the Historical Jesus |publisher=Prometheus Books |year=2012 |page=26-29 |ISBN=9781616145590}}
{{refend}}
{{Formal fallacy}}
{{DEFAULTSORT:Appeal To Probability}}