Baruch Fischhoff

{{short description|American academic (born 1946)}}

{{Use mdy dates|date=October 2015}}

{{Infobox scientist

| name = Baruch Fischhoff

| image = Baruch Fischhoff.png

| image_size = 245px

| birth_date = {{birth date |1946|04|21}}

| birth_place = Detroit, Michigan, U.S.

| field = Decision theory, risk

| workplaces = {{ubl|Decision Research|Carnegie Mellon University|Stockholm University|National Academy of Sciences|National Academy of Medicine}}

| alma_mater = {{ubl|The Hebrew University of Jerusalem |Wayne State University}}

| known_for = {{ubl|Judgment and decision making|Risk analysis|Communication sciences}}

| doctoral_students = {{ubl|Cynthia Atman|Shane Frederick|Donna Riley}}

}}

Baruch Fischhoff (born April 21, 1946, Detroit, Michigan) is an American academic who is the Howard Heinz University Professor in the Carnegie Mellon Institute for Strategy and Technology and the Department of Engineering and Public Policy at Carnegie Mellon University. He is an elected member of the (US) National Academy of Scienceshttps://www.nasonline.org/directory-entry/baruch-fischhoff-vifwyc/ and National Academy of Medicine. His research focuses on judgment and decision making, including risk perception and risk analysis. He has authored numerous academic books and articles. Fischhoff completed his graduate education at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem under the supervision of Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky.Klein, Olivier, Peter Hegarty, and Baruch Fischhoff. [https://www.cmu.edu/epp/people/faculty/research/Memory%20Studies%20interview.pdf "Hindsight 40 years on: An interview with Baruch Fischhoff"]. Memory Studies. 2017, Vol. 10(3) 249–260

He has been honored with a 'Distinguished Achievement Award' by the Society for Risk Analysis,Society for Risk Analysis (1991). [http://www.sra.org/awards "Distinguished Achievement Award".] Society for Risk Analysis. Retrieved October 2, 2015. a Distinguished Scientific Award for an Early Career Contribution to Psychology by the American Psychological Association, an Andrew Carnegie Fellowship, the William Procter Prize for Scientific Achievement,[https://www.cmu.edu/epp/news/2021/fischhoff-awarded-sigma-xi-william-procter-prize-for-scientific-achievement.html Fischhoff awarded Sigma Xi William Procter Prize for Scientific Achievement] and a Doctorate of Humanities, honoris causa, by Lund University. He has chaired committees of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, the National Academy of Sciences, and the Environmental Protection Agency. He is a past president of the Society for Risk AnalysisSociety for Risk Analysis (2004–2005). [http://www.sra.org/past-officers-and-councilors "Past Officers and Councilors".] Society for Risk Analysis. Retrieved October 2, 2015. and Society for Judgment and Decision Making.Society for Judgment and Decision Making (1990–1991). [http://www.sjdm.org/history.html#officers "SJDM Presidents".] Judgment and Decision Making. Retrieved October 2, 2015. He is a fellow of the American Psychological Association, Association for Psychological Science, Society of Experimental Psychologists, American Association for the Advancement of Science, and Society for Risk Analysis. He has received Carnegie Mellon University’s Ryan Award for Meritorious Teaching and College of Engineering Outstanding Mentoring Award.

His research includes work on hindsight bias,Fischhoff, B. (1975). Hindsight foresight: The effect of outcome knowledge on judgment under uncertainty. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 1(3), 288-299. https://doi.org/10.1037/0096-1523.1.3.288

Fischhoff, B. (2025). Fifty years of hindsight bias research. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 51(2),143-150. https://doi.org/10.1037/xhp0001232 calibration of probability judgmentsLichtenstein, S. & Fischhoff, B. (1977). Do those who know more also know more about how much they know? The calibration of probability judgments. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 20, 159-183. https://doi.org/10.1016/0030-5073(77)90001-0

Lichtenstein, S. & Fischhoff, B. (1980). Training for calibration. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 26, 149-171. https://doi.org/10.1016/0030-5073(80)90052-5 (over/underconfidence), preference elicitation (and construction),Fischhoff, B. (1991). Value elicitation: Is there anything in there? American Psychologist, 46(8), 835-847. https://doi.org/10.1037/0003-066X.46.8.835

Fischhoff, B., Welch, N., & Frederick, S. (1999). Construal processes in preference elicitation. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 19, 139-164. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1007823326511 adolescent decision making,Quadrel, M.J., Fischhoff, B., & Davis, W. (1993). Adolescent (in)vulnerability. American Psychologist, 48, 102-116. https://doi.org/10.1037/0003-066X.48.2.102Fischhoff, B. (2008). Assessing adolescent decision-making competence. Developmental Review, 28(1), 12-28. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.dr.2007.08.001 individual differences in decision-making competence,Bruine de Bruin, W., Parker, A., & Fischhoff, B. (2007). Individual differences in adult decision-making competence (A-DMC). Journal of Personality and Social Psychology. 92, 938-956. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.92.5.93Parker, A.M., Bruine de Bruin, W., Fischhoff, B., & Weller, J. (2018). Robustness of decision-making competence: Evidence from two measures and an 11-year longitudinal study. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 31, 380-391. https://doi.org/10.1002/bdm.2059 climate and energy,Wong-Parodi, G., Krishnamurti, T., Davis, A.L., Schwartz, D., & Fischhoff, B. (2016). Integrating social science in climate and energy solutions: A decision science approach. Nature Climate Change, 6, 563-569. https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE2917Fischhoff, B. (2021). Making behavioral science integral to climate science and action. Behavioural Public Policy, 5(4) 439-453. https://www.doi.org/10.1017/bpp.2020.38 risk analysis,Fischhoff, B. (2015). The realities of risk-cost-benefit analysis. Science, 350(6260), 527.

https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aaa6516

expert judgment,Henrion, M. & Fischhoff, B. (1986). Assessing uncertainty in physical constants. American Journal of Physics, 54, 791-798. https://doi.org/10.1119/1.14447

Fischhoff, B., & Davis, A.L. (2014). Communicating scientific uncertainty. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111 (Supplement 4), 13664-13671. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.131750411 pandemic disease,Fischhoff, B., Bruine de Bruin, W., Guvenc, U., Caruso, D., & Brilliant, L. (2006). Analyzing disaster risks and plans: An avian flu example. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty. 33, 133-151. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-006-0175-8Fischhoff, B. (2021). The COVID communication breakdown. Foreign Affairs. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2021-10-04/covid-communication-breakdown medicine,Fischhoff, B. (2017). Breaking ground for psychological science: The U.S. Food and Drug Administration. American Psychologist, 72(2). 118-125. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0040438Mohan, D., Fischhoff, B., Angus, D.C., Rosengart, M.R., Wallace, D.J., Yealy, D.M., Farris, C., Chang, C.-C.H., Kerti, S., & Barnato, A.E. (2018). Serious video games may improve physicians’ heuristics in trauma triage. PNAS, 115(37), 9204-9209. https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.1805450115 usability of AI,Arnold, J., Davis, A.L., Fischhoff, B., Yecies, E., Grace, J.O., Klobuka, A., Hand, M.O., Mohan, D., & Hanmer, J.Z. (2019). Comparing the predictive ability of a commercial artificial intelligence early warning system with physician judgment for clinical deterioration in hospitalized general internal medicine patients, a prospective observational study. BMJ Open, 9, e032187. doi:10.1136/bmjopen-2019-03218 https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/bmjopen/9/10/e032187nning, R., Fischhoff, B., & Davis, A.L. (2024). When do humans heed AI agents’ advice?

When should they? Human Factors. 66(7), 1914-1927. https://doi.org/10.1177/00187208231190459 risk perception and communication,Fischhoff, B. (2011). Communicating the risks of terrorism (and anything else). American Psychologist, 66, 520-531. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0024570Woloshin, S., Yang, Y., & Fischhoff, B. (2023). Communicating health information with visual displays. Nature Medicine, 29, 1085-1091. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-023-02328-1 science communication,Fischhoff, B. (2013). The sciences of science communication. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 110 (Supplement 3), 14033-14039. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1213273110.Fischhoff, B. (2019). Evaluating science communication. PNAS, 116(16), 7670-7675. www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1805863115 13664-13671. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.131750411 security,Fischhoff, B., Atran, S., & Fischhoff, N. (2007). Counting casualties: A framework for respectful, useful records. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 34, 1-19. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-006-9001-6 and interdisciplinary collaboration.Fischhoff, B. (2024). Heuristic assumptions. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty. (special issue tribute to Daniel Kahneman). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-024-09437-3Fischhoff, B. (2025). Bounded disciplines and unbounded problems (The Clarendon Lectures in Management). Oxford: Oxford University Press. https://academic.oup.com/book/59320