China watcher

{{Short description|Analyst of Chinese politics, especially for Western audiences}}

A China watcher, or, less frequently, Pekingologist, is a person who researches and/or reports on the politics of the People's Republic of China for western consumption, especially in a Cold War context. "China watching" was coined by analogy to birdwatching, which takes place from a distance. It represents a semantic break from the earlier term China Hands, which referred to knowledgeable businesspeople who made political commentary from inside mainland China: after the Chinese Communist Revolution, China watchers more frequently had backgrounds in academia, rather than business, and operated out of consulates in Hong Kong.{{cite book|title=Safire's Political Dictionary|first=William|last=Safire|authorlink=William Safire|publisher=Oxford University Press|year=2008|pages=118–119|chapter=China watchers}}{{Additional citation needed|date=October 2023}}

"China watcher" should not be confused for Sinologist, which can loosely refer to anyone who studies China, but, especially in the United States, more frequently refers to those who study classical language, literature, or civilization.American Heritage Dictionary In other languages, where the term Pekingologist does not exist, the usage of these terms are less rigidly delineated. In French for instance, the term sinologue would refer to both a researcher in Sinology and a reporter of Pekingology.

History and nature of China watching

= Cold War era =

During the Cold War, China watchers centered in Hong Kong and many of them simultaneously worked for Western intelligence agencies, universities, and news organizations. Much of their reporting would be previewed by the British colonial government's secretariat, to prepare for diplomatic consequences.{{Citation needed|date=October 2023}} Of the various nationalities of China watcher, the Americans were the most prolific, due to the activity of the Consulate General of the United States, Hong Kong and Macau.{{harvnb|Gittings|1972|p=418}} Mutual distrust between the United States and China and the prohibition of travel between the countries meant that American China watchers did not have access to press briefings or interviews. Therefore, China watchers adopted techniques from Kremlinology, such as the close parsing of official announcements for hidden meanings, movements of officials reported in newspapers, and analysis of photographs of public appearances.Gail Solin, "The Art of China Watching" [https://web.archive.org/web/20100327043144/https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/kent-csi/vol19no1/html/v19i1a04p_0001.htm#top Center for the Study of Intelligence > Studies Archive ] China watchers would also interview refugees from mainland China, or reprint analysis from Taiwan or the Soviet Union.{{harvnb|Gittings|1972|pp=415, 421}}

Prominent China watchers in Hong Kong in the first decades after the Chinese Communist Revolution included László Ladány and Pierre Ryckmans. Publications by the Consulate-General, which were frequently cited by China-watchers (some of whom did not speak Chinese) included Survey of the China Mainland Press, Current Background, and Selections from Mainland China Magazines. These publications emphasized problems and contradictions in national policy, violence, and atrocity, ignoring topics like education or culture unless there was an associated controversy.{{harvnb|Gittings|1972|pp=420}} In the years since the reform and opening up, China watchers can live in China and take advantage of normal sources of information. Others remained in Hong Kong, however. The Hong Kong journalist Willy Wo-Lap Lam has been called the "quintessential China watcher, practiced in the art of Pekingology," whose "scope is wide, but the focus of his analysis is the Zhongnanhai and factional manoeuvring among the political elite."David Shambaugh, China Quarterly 142 (June 1995): 608.

= Post-Cold War era =

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, China became seen as a major United States antagonist, which has caused more interest in China from strategists, including China watchers, rather than just sinologists. Sinologists have since lost ground in shaping the US policy on China, and have claimed that strategists "don't understand China".{{Cite news|last=Campbell|first=Kurt M.|date=2000-05-20|title=China Watchers Fighting A Turf War of Their Own|language=en-US|work=The New York Times|url=https://www.nytimes.com/2000/05/20/arts/china-watchers-fighting-a-turf-war-of-their-own.html|access-date=2021-08-10|issn=0362-4331}} According to Washington officials, there is "a desire for a new cold war", and The Economist wrote "expertise about China is not necessary" for China watchers, while doveish China experts lost their advisory role to the White House.{{Cite news |date=2021-05-01 |title=Even doveish China-watchers in America are becoming hawkish |newspaper=The Economist |url=https://www.economist.com/china/2021/05/01/even-doveish-china-watchers-in-america-are-becoming-hawkish |url-access=subscription |access-date=2021-08-12 |issn=0013-0613}}

Criticism

The credibility of China watchers has been subject to criticism, as many China watchers predicted extreme and conflicting scenarios, either a collapse of the PRC's economy, political system or nation, or PRC domination.{{Cite book|last=Gu|first=Ming Dong|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=DxjYM181MiUC&q=china+watchers+collapse+coming&pg=PA16|title=Sinologism: An Alternative to Orientalism and Postcolonialism|date=2013|publisher=Routledge|isbn=978-0-415-62654-5|language=en}}{{Cite book|last=Irvine|first=Roger|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=TbkBCgAAQBAJ&q=china+watchers+biased&pg=PA69|title=Forecasting China's Future: Dominance or Collapse?|date=2015-06-26|publisher=Routledge|isbn=978-1-317-42410-9|pages=68–71|language=en}}{{Cite book|last=Lo|first=Chi|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=rDYTEAAAQBAJ&q=china+watchers+collapse+coming&pg=PP7|title=China's Global Disruption: Myths and Reality|date=2021-01-11|publisher=Emerald Group Publishing|isbn=978-1-80043-796-8|language=en}}{{Cite book|last1=Guo|first1=Baogang|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=5IjFCwAAQBAJ&q=china+watchers+collapse+coming&pg=PA1|title=China's Quiet Rise: Peace Through Integration|last2=Teng|first2=Chung-chian|date=2011-05-12|publisher=Lexington Books|isbn=978-0-7391-6908-7|language=en}} In particular, China watchers have claimed that the CPC is struggling to hold on to power, however the party proved to be adaptable.{{Cite book|last=Dickson|first=Bruce|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=YL2SDAAAQBAJ&q=china+watchers+collapse+coming&pg=PA17|title=The Dictator's Dilemma: The Chinese Communist Party's Strategy for Survival|date=2016-05-16|publisher=Oxford University Press|isbn=978-0-19-022856-9|pages=17–20|language=en}}{{Cite book|last=Irvine|first=Roger|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=TbkBCgAAQBAJ&q=china+watchers+collapse+coming&pg=PA24|title=Forecasting China's Future: Dominance or Collapse?|date=2015-06-26|publisher=Routledge|isbn=978-1-317-42410-9|language=en}} During the COVID-19 pandemic, China watchers were prominently featured in media reports claiming lockdowns as authoritarian measures, with support for this policy by the scientific community receiving considerably less attention.{{Cite journal|last1=Zhang|first1=Yunpeng|last2=Xu|first2=Fang|date=July 2020|title=Ignorance, Orientalism and Sinophobia in Knowledge Production on COVID‐19|journal=Tijdschrift voor economische en sociale geografie|language=en|volume=111|issue=3|pages=211–223|doi=10.1111/tesg.12441|issn=0040-747X|pmc=7323434|pmid=32836494}}{{Additional citation needed|date=April 2024}}

Notes

References

Richard Baum, China Watcher: Confessions of a Peking Tom (Seattle: University of Washington Press, 2010).
Harry Harding, "The Changing Roles of the Academic China Watcher" (Sigur Center for Asian Studies, 1999. Trends in China Watching: The PRC at Fifty)
{{cite journal|title=China-watching in Hongkong|first=John|last=Gittings|authorlink=John Gittings|journal=Journal of Contemporary Asia|year=1972|volume=2|issue=4|pages=415–430|doi=10.1080/00472337285390371}}