Climate change and civilizational collapse
{{Short description|Discussion of scenarios for a collapse of civilization due to climate change}}
{{Use dmy dates|date=March 2025}}
{{About|human civilization risks|extinction risk of plant or animal species|Extinction risk from climate change}}
Climate change and civilizational collapse refers to a hypothetical risk that the negative impacts of climate change might reduce global socioeconomic complexity to the point that complex human civilization effectively ends around the world, with humanity reduced to a less developed state. This hypothetical risk is typically associated with the idea of a massive reduction of human population caused by the direct and indirect impacts of climate change, and also with a permanent reduction of Earth's carrying capacity. Finally, it is sometimes suggested that a civilizational collapse caused by climate change would soon be followed by human extinction.
Some researchers connect historical examples of societal collapse with adverse changes in local and/or global weather patterns. In particular, the 4.2-kiloyear event, a millennial-scale megadrought which took place in Africa and Asia between 5,000 and 4,000 years ago, has been linked with the collapse of the Old Kingdom in Egypt, the Akkadian Empire in Mesopotamia, the Liangzhu culture in the lower Yangtze River area and the Indus Valley Civilization.{{cite journal |author=Gibbons, Ann |year=1993 |title=How the Akkadian Empire Was Hung Out to Dry |journal=Science |volume=261 |issue=5124 |page=985 |doi=10.1126/science.261.5124.985 |pmid=17739611 |bibcode=1993Sci...261..985G}}{{cite journal |last1=Li |first1=Chun-Hai |last2=Li |first2=Yong-Xiang |last3=Zheng |first3=Yun-Fei |last4=Yu |first4=Shi-Yong |last5=Tang |first5=Ling-Yu |last6=Li |first6=Bei-Bei |last7=Cui |first7=Qiao-Yu |date=August 2018 |title=A high-resolution pollen record from East China reveals large climate variability near the Northgrippian-Meghalayan boundary (around 4200 years ago) exerted societal influence |journal=Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology |volume=512 |pages=156–165 |doi=10.1016/j.palaeo.2018.07.031 |issn=0031-0182 |bibcode=2018PPP...512..156L|s2cid=133896325 }} In Europe, the General Crisis of the Seventeenth Century, which was defined by events such as crop failure and the Thirty Years' War, took place during the Little Ice Age. In 2011, a general connection was proposed between adverse climate variations and long-term societal crises during the preindustrial times.{{Cite journal|last1=Zhang|first1=David D.|last2=Lee|first2=Harry F.|last3=Wang|first3=Cong|last4=Li|first4=Baosheng|last5=Pei|first5=Qing |last6=Zhang|first6=Jane|last7=An|first7=Yulun|date=18 October 2011|title=The causality analysis of climate change and large-scale human crisis|journal=Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America|volume=108|issue=42|pages=17296–17301 |doi=10.1073/pnas.1104268108|pmid=21969578|pmc=3198350|s2cid=33451915|doi-access=free}} Drought might have been a contributing factor to the Classic Maya collapse between the 7th and 9th centuries.{{cite web|title=What really caused the collapse of the Maya civilization?|url=https://www.nationalgeographic.com/premium/article/mayan-empire-collapse-mystery|work=National Geographic}} However, all of these events were limited to individual human societies: a collapse of the entire human civilization would be historically unprecedented.
Some of the more extreme warnings of civilizational collapse caused by climate change, such as a claim that civilization is highly likely to end by 2050, have attracted strong rebutals from scientists. The 2022 IPCC Sixth Assessment Report projects that human population would be in a range between 8.5 billion and 11 billion people by 2050. By the year 2100, the median population projection is at 11 billion people, while the maximum population projection is close to 16 billion people. The lowest projection for 2100 is around 7 billion, and this decline from present levels is primarily attributed to "rapid development and investment in education", with those projections associated with some of the highest levels of economic growth. However, a minority{{citation needed|date=May 2024}} of climate scientists have argued that higher levels of warming—between about {{convert|3|C-change|F-change}} to {{convert|5|C-change|F-change}} over preindustrial temperatures—may be incompatible with civilization, or that the lives of several billion people could no longer be sustained in such a world.{{Cite news|last1=Carrington|first1=Damian|date=30 September 2023|title=We're not doomed yet': climate scientist Michael Mann on our last chance to save human civilisation|work=The Guardian|url=https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/sep/30/human-civilisation-climate-scientist-prof-michael-mann|access-date=19 October 2023}} In 2022, they have called for a so-called "climate endgame" research agenda into the probability of these risks, which had attracted significant media attention and some scientific controversy.
Some of the most high-profile writing on climate change and civilizational collapse has been written by non-scientists. Notable examples include "The Uninhabitable Earth" by David Wallace-Wells and "What if we stopped pretending?" by Jonathan Franzen, which were both criticized for scientific inaccuracy. Climate change in popular culture is commonly represented in a highly exaggerated manner as well. Opinion polling has provided evidence that youths across the world experience widespread climate anxiety, with the term collapsology being coined in 2015 to describe a pessimistic worldview anticipating civilizational collapse due to climate anxiety.
Suggested historical examples
File:PkMoenjoDaro03.jpg on the Indus River in Pakistan]]
File:04 - Palenque 031 (2866094246).jpg ruins of Palenque. Drought might have been a contributing factor to the Classic Maya collapse between the 7th and 9th centuries.]]
{{excerpt|Societal collapse#Natural disasters and climate change|paragraphs=1,2,4,6|file=no}}
Modern discussion
= 2000s =
As early as in 2004, a book titled Ecocriticism explored the connection between apocalypticism as expressed in religious contexts, and the secular apocalyptic interpretations of climate and environmental issues.{{cite book |last1=Garrard |first1=Greg |title=Ecocriticism |date=2004 |publisher=Routledge |location=New York, New York |isbn=9780415196925 |pages=85–87}} It argued that the tragic (preordained, with clearly delineated morality) or comic (focused on human flaws as opposed to inherent inevitability) apocalyptic framing was seen in the past works on environment, such as Rachel Carson's Silent Spring (1962), Paul and Anne Ehrlich's The Population Bomb (1972), and Al Gore's Earth in the Balance (1992).{{cite book |last1=Garrard |first1=Greg |title=Ecocriticism |date=2004 |publisher=Routledge |location=New York, New York |isbn=9780415196925 |pages=93–104}}{{Cite journal|last1=Foust|first1=Christina R.|last2=O'Shannon Murphy|first2=William|date=2009|title=Revealing and Reframing Apocalyptic Tragedy in Global Warming Discourse |journal=Environmental Communication|language=en |volume=3 |issue=2 |pages=151–167 |doi=10.1080/17524030902916624|s2cid=144658834 |doi-access=free|bibcode=2009Ecomm...3..151F }}
In the mid-2000s, James Lovelock gave predictions to the British newspapers The Independent and The Guardian, where he suggested that much of Europe will have turned to desert and "billions of us will die and the few breeding pairs of people that survive will be in the Arctic where the climate remains tolerable" by the end of the 21st century.{{Cite news |ref=none |url=http://comment.independent.co.uk/commentators/article338830.ece |title=The Earth is about to catch a morbid fever that may last as long as 100,000 years |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20060408121826/http://comment.independent.co.uk/commentators/article338830.ece |archive-date=8 April 2006 |first=James |name-list-style=vanc |last=Lovelock |work=The Independent |date=16 January 2006 |access-date=4 October 2007}}{{cite news |name-list-style=vanc |last1=Jeffries |first1=Stuart |title=We should be scared stiff |url=https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2007/mar/15/desertification.ethicalliving |access-date=28 July 2022 |work=The Guardian |date=15 March 2007 |archive-date=28 July 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220728175751/https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2007/mar/15/desertification.ethicalliving |url-status=live }} In 2008, he was quoted in The Guardian as saying that 80% of humans will perish by 2100, and that the climate change responsible for that will last 100,000 years.{{cite news |name-list-style=vanc |last1=Aitkenhead |first1=Decca |date=1 March 2008 |title=James Lovelock: 'Enjoy life while you can: in 20 years global warming will hit the fan' |work=The Guardian |url=https://www.theguardian.com/theguardian/2008/mar/01/scienceofclimatechange.climatechange |access-date=28 July 2022 |archive-date=28 July 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220728175750/https://www.theguardian.com/theguardian/2008/mar/01/scienceofclimatechange.climatechange |url-status=live }} By 2012, he admitted that climate change had proceeded slower than he expected.{{Cite news|title='Gaia' scientist James Lovelock: I was 'alarmist' about climate change |url=http://worldnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/04/23/11144098-gaia-scientist-james-lovelock-i-was-alarmist-about-climate-change?lite |date=23 April 2012 |publisher=MSNBC |access-date=12 November 2016 |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120424004036/https://worldnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/04/23/11144098-gaia-scientist-james-lovelock-i-was-alarmist-about-climate-change?lite |first=Ian |name-list-style=vanc |last=Johnston|archive-date=24 April 2012}}
= 2010s–present =
In late 2010s, several articles have attracted attention for their predictions of apocalyptic impacts caused by climate change. Firstly, there was "The Uninhabitable Earth",{{cite web |url=http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/07/climate-change-earth-too-hot-for-humans.html |title=The Uninhabitable Earth |work=New York |author=David Wallace-Wells |date=10 July 2017 |access-date=11 July 2017}} a July 2017 New York magazine article by David Wallace-Wells, which had become the most-read story in the history of the magazine,{{cite news |last1=Miller |first1=Laura |title=What Kind of Novel Do You Write When You Believe Civilization Is Doomed? |url=https://slate.com/culture/2017/07/the-world-without-us.html |accessdate=23 May 2020 |work=Slate Magazine |date=26 July 2017 |language=en|quote="'The Uninhabitable Earth,' the most-read story in New York magazine’s history"}} and was later adapted into a book. Another was "What if we stopped pretending?", an article written for The New Yorker by Jonathan Franzen in September 2019.{{Cite news|url=https://www.newyorker.com/culture/cultural-comment/what-if-we-stopped-pretending|title=What if We Stopped Pretending the Climate Apocalypse Can Be Stopped?|last=Franzen|first=Jonathan|magazine=The New Yorker|date=8 September 2019|access-date=2 January 2020 }} Both articles were heavily criticized by the fact-checking organization Climate Feedback for the numerous inaccuracies about tipping points in the climate system and other aspects of climate change research.{{cite web |url=https://science.feedback.org/review/scientists-explain-what-new-york-magazine-article-on-the-uninhabitable-earth-gets-wrong-david-wallace-wells/ |title=Scientists explain what New York Magazine article on "The Uninhabitable Earth" gets wrong |website=Science Feedback |publisher=Climate Feedback |author=Emmanuel Vincent |date=12 July 2017 |accessdate=16 September 2024}}{{cite web |url=https://science.feedback.org/review/2c-not-known-point-of-no-return-as-jonathan-franzen-claims-new-yorker/ |title=2°C is not known to be a "point of no return", as Jonathan Franzen claims |website=Science Feedback |publisher=Climate Feedback |author=Scott Johnson |date=17 September 2019 |accessdate=16 September 2024}}
Other examples of this genre include "What Comes After the Coming Climate Anarchy?", a year 2022 article for TIME magazine by Parag Khanna, which had asserted that hundreds of millions of people dying in the upcoming years and the global population standing at 6 billion by the year 2050 was a plausible worst-case scenario.{{Cite magazine |url=https://time.com/6206111/climate-change-anarchy-what-comes-next/|title=What Comes After the Coming Climate Anarchy? |last=Khanna|first=Parag|magazine=TIME|date=15 August 2022 |access-date=20 January 2023}} Further, some reports, such as "the 2050 scenario" from the Australian Breakthrough – National Centre for Climate RestorationSpratt, David; Dunlop, Ian T. (May 2019). "[https://www.breakthroughonline.org.au/papers Existential climate-related security risk: A scenario approach]". breakthroughonline.org.au. Breakthrough - National Centre for Climate Restoration. and the self-published Deep Adaptation paper by Jem Bendell{{cite journal |last1=Bendell |first1=Jem |title=Deep adaptation: a map for navigating climate tragedy |journal=Occasional Papers |publisher=University of Cumbria |location=Ambleside, UK |date=27 July 2018 |volume=2 |pages=1–31 |url=https://insight.cumbria.ac.uk/id/eprint/4166/ }} had attracted substantial media coverage by making allegations that the outcomes of climate change are underestimated by the conventional scientific process.{{Cite news|last=Hunter|first=Jack|date=16 March 2020|title=The 'climate doomers' preparing for society to fall apart|work=BBC News|url=https://www.bbc.com/news/stories-51857722|access-date=8 October 2020}}{{Cite web|url=https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change-global-warming-end-human-civilisation-research-a8943531.html|title='High likelihood of human civilisation coming to end' by 2050, report finds|date=4 June 2019|website=The Independent|language=en|access-date=21 December 2019}}{{Cite web|url=https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/04/health/climate-change-existential-threat-report-intl/index.html|title=Global warming could devastate civilization by 2050: report|first=Julia |last=Hollingsworth|website=CNN|date=4 June 2019|access-date=21 December 2019}}{{Cite news|last=Ahmed|first=Nahfeez|date=22 November 2019|title=The Collapse of Civilization May have Already Begun|work=VICE|url=https://www.vice.com/en/article/8xwygg/the-collapse-of-civilisation-may-have-already-begun|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210511174543/https://www.vice.com/en/article/8xwygg/the-collapse-of-civilisation-may-have-already-begun|url-status=dead|archive-date=11 May 2021|access-date=8 October 2021}}{{Cite web|url=https://www.mirror.co.uk/science/human-civilisation-collapse-2050-dont-16257969|title=Human civilisation 'will collapse by 2050' if we don't tackle climate change|last=Best|first=Shivali|date=5 June 2019|website=mirror|access-date=21 December 2019}}{{Cite news|last=Bromwich|first=Jonah E.|date=26 December 2020|title=The Darkest Timeline|work=The New York Times|url=https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/26/style/climate-change-deep-adaptation.html|access-date=8 October 2021}} Those reports did not go through the peer review process, and the scientific assessment of these works finds them of very low credibility.{{cite web |url=https://science.feedback.org/review/iflscience-story-on-speculative-report-provides-little-scientific-context-james-felton/ |title=Claim that human civilization could end in 30 years is speculative, not supported with evidence |website=Science Feedback |publisher=Climate Feedback |author=Scott Johnson |date=9 June 2019 |accessdate=16 September 2024}}{{Cite news|last1=Nicholas|first1=Thomas|last2=Hall|first2=Galen|last3=Schmidt|first3=Colleen|date=14 July 2020|title=The faulty science, doomism, and flawed conclusions of Deep Adaptation|work=openDemocracy|url=https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/oureconomy/faulty-science-doomism-and-flawed-conclusions-deep-adaptation/|access-date=8 October 2021}}
Notably, subsequent writing by David Wallace-Wells had stepped back from the claims he made in either version of The Uninhabitable Earth. In 2022, he authored a feature article for The New York Times, which was titled "Beyond Catastrophe: A New Climate Reality Is Coming Into View".{{cite news |last=Wallace-Wells |first=David |title=Beyond Catastrophe: A New Climate Reality Is Coming Into View |url=https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/10/26/magazine/climate-change-warming-world.html |accessdate=20 January 2023 |newspaper=New York Times |date=26 October 2022 |language=en }} The following year, Kyle Paoletta argued in Harper's Magazine that the shift in tone made by David Wallace-Wells was indicative of a larger trend in media coverage of climate change taking place.{{cite news |last=Paoletta |first=Kyle |title=The Incredible Disappearing Doomsday |url=https://harpers.org/archive/2023/04/the-incredible-disappearing-doomsday-climate-catastrophists-new-york-times-climate-change-coverage/ |accessdate=5 October 2023 |magazine=Harper's Magazine |date=April 2023 |language=en }}
In October 2024, 44 climate scientists published an open letter to the Nordic Council of Ministers,{{cite news |title=Earth is racing toward climate conditions that collapsed key Atlantic currents before the last ice age, study finds |url=https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/rivers-oceans/earth-is-racing-toward-climate-conditions-that-collapsed-key-atlantic-currents-before-the-last-ice-age-study-finds |work=Live Science |date=31 October 2024}} claiming that according to scientific studies in the past few years, the risk of collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation has been greatly underestimated, that it can occur in the next few decades, and that some changes are already happening.{{Cite journal |last1=Ditlevsen |first1=Peter |last2=Ditlevsen |first2=Susanne |date=25 July 2023 |title=Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation |journal=Nature Communications |language=en |volume=14 |issue=1 |pages=4254 |doi=10.1038/s41467-023-39810-w |pmid=37491344 |issn=2041-1723|pmc=10368695 |arxiv=2304.09160 |bibcode=2023NatCo..14.4254D }} Climate change may weaken the AMOC through increases in ocean heat content and elevated flows of freshwater from melting ice sheets.{{Cite web |date=30 May 2024 |title=Historic iceberg surges offer insights on modern climate change |url=https://news.ucsb.edu/2024/021493/historic-iceberg-surges-offer-insights-modern-climate-change |access-date=30 May 2024 |website=The Current |language=en}} The collapse of the AMOC would be a severe climate catastrophe, resulting in a cooling of the Northern Hemisphere.{{cite news |last1=Cooke |first1=Ben |title=The UK could turn as cold as Scandinavia. Why aren't we preparing? |url=https://www.thetimes.com/uk/environment/article/amoc-collapse-shutdown-climate-change-times-earth-lps5532hd |work=The Times |date=16 October 2024}} It would have devastating and irreversible impacts especially for Nordic countries, but also for other parts of the world.{{cite web |last1=Pare |first1=Sascha |title=Key Atlantic current could collapse soon, 'impacting the entire world for centuries to come,' leading climate scientists warn |url=https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/rivers-oceans/key-atlantic-current-could-collapse-soon-impacting-the-entire-world-for-centuries-to-come-leading-climate-scientists-warn |access-date=31 October 2024 |website=Live Science|date=22 October 2024 }} Others disagree.{{Cite web |date=25 July 2023 |title=expert reaction to paper warning of a collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation |url=https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-paper-warning-of-a-collapse-of-the-atlantic-meridional-overturning-circulation/ |access-date=11 August 2023 |website=Science Media Centre |language=en}}
Scientific consensus and controversy
The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report projects that human population would be in a range between 8.5 billion and 11 billion people (median average - 9.75 billion people) by 2050; the median population projection for the year 2100 is at 11 billion people, while the maximum population projection is close to 16 billion people. The lowest projection for 2100 is around 7 billion, and this decline from present levels is primarily attributed to "rapid development and investment in education", with those projections associated with some of the highest levels of economic growth.Mycoo, M., M. Wairiu, D. Campbell, V. Duvat, Y. Golbuu, S. Maharaj, J. Nalau, P. Nunn, J. Pinnegar, and O. Warrick, 2022: [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg3/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGIII_Chapter03.pdf Chapter 3: Mitigation pathways compatible with long-term goals]. In [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg3/ Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change] [ K. Riahi, R.Schaeffer, J.Arango, K. Calvin, C. Guivarch, T. Hasegawa, K. Jiang, E. Kriegler, R. Matthews, G. P. Peters, A. Rao, S. Robertson, A. M. Sebbit, J. Steinberger, M. Tavoni, D. P. van Vuuren]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 463–464 |doi= 10.1017/9781009157926.005 In November 2021, Nature surveyed the authors of the first part of the IPCC assessment report: out of 92 respondents, 88% have agreed that the world is experiencing a "climate crisis", yet when asked if they experience "anxiety, grief or other distress because of concerns over climate change?" just 40% answered "Yes, infrequently", with a further 21% responding "Yes, frequently", and the remaining 39% answering "No".{{cite magazine |title=Top climate scientists are sceptical that nations will rein in global warming |url=https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02990-w |magazine=Nature |date=1 November 2021 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20211102175044/https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02990-w |archive-date=2 November 2021 |access-date=4 October 2023 }} Similarly, when a high-profile paper warning of "the challenges of avoiding a ghastly future" was published in Frontiers in Conservation Science, its authors have noted that "even if major catastrophes occur during this interval, they would unlikely affect the population trajectory until well into the 22nd Century", and "there is no way—ethically or otherwise (barring extreme and unprecedented increases in human mortality)—to avoid rising human numbers and the accompanying overconsumption."{{Cite journal|doi = 10.3389/fcosc.2020.615419|title =Underestimating the Challenges of Avoiding a Ghastly Future|year = 2021|last1 = Bradshaw|first1 = Corey J. A.|last2 = Ehrlich|first2 = Paul R.|last3 = Beattie|first3 = Andrew|last4 = Ceballos|first4 = Gerardo|last5 = Crist|first5 = Eileen|last6 = Diamond|first6 = Joan|last7 = Dirzo|first7 = Rodolfo|last8 = Ehrlich|first8 = Anne H.|last9 = Harte|first9 = John|last10 = Harte|first10 = Mary Ellen|last11 = Pyke|first11 = Graham|last12 = Raven|first12 = Peter H.|last13 = Ripple|first13 = William J.|last14 = Saltré|first14 = Frédérik|last15 = Turnbull|first15 = Christine|last16 = Wackernagel|first16 = Mathis|last17 = Blumstein|first17 = Daniel T.|journal = Frontiers in Conservation Science|volume = 1|doi-access = free|bibcode =2021FrCS....1.5419B}}{{cite news |last= Weston |first=Phoebe |date=13 January 2021 |title=Top Scientists Warn of 'Ghastly Future of Mass Extinction' and Climate Disruption |url=https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jan/13/top-scientists-warn-of-ghastly-future-of-mass-extinction-and-climate-disruption-aoe |work=The Guardian |location= |access-date=13 February 2021}}
Only a minority of publishing scientists have been more open to apocalyptic rhetoric. In 2009, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, the Emeritus Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, stated that if global warming reached {{convert|4|C-change|F-change}} over the present levels, then the human population would likely be reduced to 1 billion.{{cite news| url=http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/03/13/scientist-warming-could-cut-population-to-1-billion/ | newspaper=The New York Times | title=Scientist: Warming Could Cut Population to 1 Billion | first=James | last=Kanter | date=13 March 2009 | access-date=4 May 2010}} In 2015, he complained that this remark was frequently misinterpreted as a call for active human population control rather than a prediction.{{cite news| url=https://www.ncregister.com/news/german-climatologist-refutes-claims-he-promotes-population-control | work=National Catholic Register | title=German Climatologist Refutes Claims He Promotes Population Control |first=Edward |last=Pentin | date=19 June 2015 | access-date=20 January 2023}} In a January 2019 interview for The Ecologist, he claimed that if we find reasons to give up on action, then there's a very big risk of things turning to an outright catastrophe, with the civilization ending and almost everything which had been built up over the past two thousand years destroyed.{{Cite web|url=https://theecologist.org/2019/jan/03/its-nonlinearity-stupid|title='It's nonlinearity - stupid!'|website=The Ecologist|date=3 January 2019 |language=en|access-date=21 December 2019}}
In May 2019, The Guardian interviewed several climate scientists about a world where {{convert|4|C-change|F-change}} of warming over the preindustrial has occurred by 2100: one of them was Johan Rockström, who was reported to state "It’s difficult to see how we could accommodate a billion people or even half of that" in such a scenario.{{Cite news|last=Vince|first=Gaia|date=18 May 2019|title=The heat is on over the climate crisis. Only radical measures will work |newspaper=The Observer|url=https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/may/18/climate-crisis-heat-is-on-global-heating-four-degrees-2100-change-way-we-live|access-date=20 January 2023}} Around the same time, similar claims were made by the Extinction Rebellion activist Roger Hallam, who said in a 2019 interview that climate change may "kill 6 billion people by 2100"—a remark which was soon questioned by the BBC News presenter Andrew Neil{{Cite news|last=Adedokun|first=Naomi|date=19 October 2019|title=Andrew Neil dismantles Extinction Rebellion's claim that 'billions of children would die' |work=Daily Express|url=https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1188717/extinction-rebellion-andrew-neil-climate-change-protest-london-emergency-bbc|access-date=20 January 2023}} and criticized as scientifically unfounded by Climate Feedback.{{cite web |url=https://science.feedback.org/review/prediction-extinction-rebellion-climate-change-will-kill-6-billion-people-unsupported-roger-hallam-bbc/ |title=Prediction by Extinction Rebellion's Roger Hallam that climate change will kill 6 billion people by 2100 is unsupported |website=Science Feedback |publisher=Climate Feedback |author=Scott Johnson |date=22 August 2019 |accessdate=16 September 2024}} In November 2019, The Guardian article was corrected, acknowledging that Rockström was misquoted and his real remarks were "It’s difficult to see how we could accommodate eight billion people or maybe even half of that".
In 2022, the United Nations published a report called Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction’ (GAR2022) saying societal collapse due to extensive crossing of planetary boundaries is possible. The UN report call to preventive policies including incorporating planetary boundaries in the SDG targets. Allegedly, a senior advisor to the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction and contributor to the Global Assessment Report who spoke to Byline Times on condition of anonymity said, that the report was strongly censored before being published, so that “The GAR2022 is an eviscerated skeleton of what was included in earlier drafts”. However, the study which mentioned this possibility and was included in GAR2022 was a scenario study with no actual measurements or timescales.{{cite news |last1=Ahmed |first1=Nafeez |title=UN Warns of 'Total Societal Collapse' Due to Breaching of Planetary Boundaries |url=https://bylinetimes.com/2022/05/26/un-warns-of-total-societal-collapse-due-to-breaching-of-planetary-boundaries/ |access-date=15 November 2024 |agency=Byline times |publisher=United Nations |date=26 May 2022}}
= Climate endgame =
In August 2022, Schellnhuber, Rockström and several other researchers, many of whom were associated with Centre for the Study of Existential Risk at the University of Cambridge, have published a paper in PNAS which argued that a lack of what they called "integrated catastrophe assessment" meant that the risk of societal collapse, or even eventual human extinction caused by climate change and its interrelated impacts such as famine (crop loss, drought), extreme weather (hurricanes, floods), war (caused by the scarce resources), systemic risk (relating to migration, famine, or conflict), and disease was "dangerously underexplored".{{cite news |title=Climate endgame: risk of human extinction 'dangerously underexplored' |url=https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/aug/01/climate-endgame-risk-human-extinction-scientists-global-heating-catastrophe |access-date=15 September 2022 |work=The Guardian |date=1 August 2022 |language=en}}{{cite journal |last1=Kemp |first1=Luke |last2=Xu |first2=Chi |last3=Depledge |first3=Joanna |last4=Ebi |first4=Kristie L. |authorlink4=Kristie Ebi |last5=Gibbins |first5=Goodwin |last6=Kohler |first6=Timothy A. |last7=Rockström |first7=Johan |authorlink7=Johan Rockström |last8=Scheffer |first8=Marten |authorlink8=Marten Scheffer |last9=Schellnhuber |first9=Hans Joachim |authorlink9=Hans Joachim Schellnhuber |last10=Steffen |first10=Will |last11=Lenton |first11=Timothy M. |title=Climate Endgame: Exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios |journal=Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences |date=23 August 2022 |volume=119 |issue=34 |pages=e2108146119 |doi=10.1073/pnas.2108146119 |pmid=35914185 |pmc=9407216 |bibcode=2022PNAS..11908146K |doi-access=free}} 50px Text was copied from this source, which is available under a [https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License] The paper suggested that the following terms should be actively used in the future research.
File:Cascading global climate failure.jpg
{{multiple image
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| image1 = Overlap between state fragility, extreme heat, and nuclear and biological catastrophic hazards.jpg
| alt1 = Overlap between state fragility, extreme heat, and nuclear and biological catastrophic hazards.
| caption1 = Overlap between state fragility, extreme heat, and nuclear and biological catastrophic hazards according to the "Endgame" paper
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| image2 = Overlap between future population distribution and extreme heat.jpg
| alt2 = Overlap between future population distribution and extreme heat.
| caption2 = Overlap between future population distribution and extreme heat according to the same paper This graphic was criticized for using a scenario considered unlikely and worse than the present trajectory.
}}
The paper was very high-profile, receiving extensive media coverage{{cite news |last1=Kraus |first1=Tina |last2=Lee |first2=Ian |title=Scientists say the world needs to think about a worst-case "climate endgame" |url=https://www.cbsnews.com/news/climate-change-endgame-extreme-weather |access-date=11 August 2022 |work=CBS News |date=3 August 2022}} and over 180,000 page views by 2023. It was also the subject of several response papers from other scientists, all of which were also published at PNAS. Most have welcomed its proposals while disagreeing on some of the details of the suggested agenda.{{cite journal |last1=Steel |first1=Daniel |last2=DesRoches |first2=C. Tyler |last3=Mintz-Woo |first3=Kian |title=Climate change and the threat to civilization |journal=Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences |date=6 October 2022 |volume=119 |issue=42 |pages=e2210525119 |doi=10.1073/pnas.2210525119 |doi-access=free|pmid=36201599 |pmc=9586259 |bibcode=2022PNAS..11910525S |hdl=10468/13756 |hdl-access=free }}{{cite journal |last1=Kelman |first1=Ilan |title=Connecting disciplines and decades |journal=Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences |date=10 October 2022 |volume=119 |issue=42 |pages=e2213953119 |doi=10.1073/pnas.2213953119 |doi-access=free|pmid=36215476 |pmc=9586291 |bibcode=2022PNAS..11913953K |url=https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/10157672/1/pnas.2213953119.pdf }}{{cite journal |last1=Bhowmik |first1=Avit |last2=McCaffrey |first2=Mark S. |last3=Roon Varga |first3=Juliette |title=From Climate Endgame to Climate Long Game |journal=Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences |date=2 November 2022 |volume=119 |issue=45 |pages=e2214975119 |doi=10.1073/pnas.2214975119 |doi-access=free|pmid=36322727 |pmc=9659379 |bibcode=2022PNAS..11914975B }}{{cite journal |last1=Ruhl |first1=J. B. |last2=Craig |first2=Robin Kundis |title=Designing extreme climate change scenarios for anticipatory governance |journal=Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences |date=29 November 2022 |volume=119 |issue=49 |pages=e2216155119 |doi=10.1073/pnas.2216155119 |doi-access=free|pmid=36445959 |pmc=9894176 |bibcode=2022PNAS..11916155R }} However, a response paper authored by Roger Pielke Jr. and fellow University of Colorado Boulder researchers Matthew Burgess and Justin Ritchie was far more critical. They have argued that one of the paper's main arguments—the supposed lack of research into higher levels of global warming—was baseless, as on the contrary, the scenarios of highest global warming called RCP 8.5 and SSP5-8.5 have accounted for around half of all mentions in the "impacts" section of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, and SSP3-7, the scenario of slightly lower warming used in some of the paper's graphics, had also assumed greater emissions and more extensive coal use than what had been projected by the International Energy Agency. They have also argued that just as the past projections of overpopulation were used to justify one-child policy in China, a disproportionate focus on apocalyptic scenarios may be used to justify despotism and fascist policies.{{cite journal |last1=Burgess |first1=Matthew G. |last2=Pielke Jr. |first2=Roger |last3=Ritchie |first3=Justin |title=Catastrophic climate risks should be neither understated nor overstated |journal=Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences |date=10 October 2022 |volume=119 |issue=42 |pages=e2214347119 |doi=10.1073/pnas.2214347119 |doi-access=free|pmid=36215483 |pmc=9586302 |bibcode=2022PNAS..11914347B |url=https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/52736/noaa_52736_DS1.pdf }} In response, the authors of the original paper wrote that in their view, catastrophic risks may occur even at lower levels of warming due to risks involving human responses and societal fragility. They also suggested that instead of the one-child policy, a better metaphor for responses to extreme risks research would be the 1980s exploration of the impacts of nuclear winter, which had spurred nuclear disarmament efforts.{{cite journal |last1=Kemp |first1=Luke |last2=Xu |first2=Chi |last3=Depledge |first3=Joanna |last4=Ebi |first4=Kristie L. |authorlink4=Kristie Ebi |last5=Gibbins |first5=Goodwin |last6=Kohler |first6=Timothy A. |last7=Rockström |first7=Johan |authorlink7=Johan Rockström |last8=Scheffer |first8=Marten |authorlink8=Marten Scheffer |last9=Schellnhuber |first9=Hans Joachim |authorlink9=Hans Joachim Schellnhuber |last10=Steffen |first10=Will |last11=Lenton |first11=Timothy M. |title=Reply to Burgess et al: Catastrophic climate risks are neglected, plausible, and safe to study |journal=Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences |date=10 October 2022 |volume=119 |issue=42 |pages=e2214884119 |doi=10.1073/pnas.2214884119 |doi-access=free|pmid=36215481 |pmc=9586271 |bibcode=2022PNAS..11914884K }}
File:San Francisco Youth Climate Strike - March 15, 2019 - 29.jpg in 2019]]
= Timescale =
Bill McGuire (a professor of Geophysical and Climate Hazards and the author of Hothouse Earth: An Inhabitant’s Guide) suggest that the collapse may occur by 2050.{{cite news |last1=Peake |first1=Eleanor |title=I'm a climate scientist and I think society will collapse by 2050. Here's how I'm preparing |url=https://inews.co.uk/inews-lifestyle/scientist-think-society-collapse-by-2050-how-preparing-2637469 |access-date=13 November 2024 |agency=I news |date=25 September 2023}}
A study published in the Yale Journal of Industrial Ecology in the year of 2020, suggest that "current business-as-usual trajectory of global civilization is heading toward the terminal decline of economic growth within the coming decade—and at worst, could trigger societal collapse by around 2040".{{cite web |title=MIT Predicted in 1972 That Society Will Collapse This Century. New Research Shows We're on Schedule |url=https://www.enviro.or.id/2023/07/mit-predicted-in-1972-that-society-will-collapse-this-century-new-research-shows-were-on-schedule/ |website=Environment Institute |date=14 July 2023 |publisher=Yale Journal of Industrial Ecology |access-date=13 November 2024}}
Public opinion
{{See also|Media coverage of climate change|Psychological impact of climate change|Doomer}}
Some public polling shows that beliefs in civilizational collapse or even human extinction have become widespread amongst the general population in many countries. In 2021, a publication in The Lancet surveyed 10,000 people aged 16–25 years in ten countries (Australia, Brazil, Finland, France, India, Nigeria, Philippines, Portugal, the UK, and the US): one of its findings was 55% of respondents agreeing with the statement "humanity is doomed".{{Cite journal |last1=Hickman |first1=Caroline |last2=Marks |first2=Elizabeth |last3=Pihkala |first3=Panu |last4=Clayton |first4=Susan |last5=Lewandowski |first5=Eric |last6=Mayall |first6=Elouise E |last7=Wray |first7=Britt |last8=Mellor |first8=Catriona |last9=van Susteren |first9=Lise |date=1 December 2021 |title=Climate anxiety in children and young people and their beliefs about government responses to climate change: a global survey |url=https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(21)00278-3/fulltext |journal=The Lancet Planetary Health |language=en |volume=5 |issue=12 |pages=e863–e873 |doi=10.1016/S2542-5196(21)00278-3 |pmid=34895496 |s2cid=263447086 |url-access=subscription |doi-access=free }}
In 2020, a survey by a French think tank Jean Jaurès Foundation found that in five developed countries (France, Germany, Italy, the UK and the US), a significant fraction of the population agreed with the statement that "civilization as we know it will collapse in the years to come"; the percentages ranged from 39% in Germany and 52% or 56% in the US and the UK to 65% in France and 71% in Italy.{{Cite news|url=https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/11/humans-werent-always-here-we-could-disappear-meet-the-collapsologists|title='Humans weren't always here. We could disappear': meet the collapsologists |last=Spinney|first=Laura|newspaper=The Guardian|date=11 October 2020|access-date=20 January 2023}}
See also
References
{{Reflist}}
=Works cited=
- {{Cite book |ref={{SfnRef|National Geographic|2007}} |url=https://www.worldcat.org/oclc/144922970 |title=Essential Visual History of the World |publisher=National Geographic |year=2007 |isbn=978-1-4262-0091-5 |location=Washington, D.C. |oclc=144922970}}
{{Climate change}}
{{Global catastrophic risks}}