Cyclone Guambe
{{short description|South-West Indian Ocean cyclone in 2021}}
{{distinguish|Cyclone Gombe}}
{{Use dmy dates|date=February 2021}}
{{Infobox weather event
| name = Tropical Cyclone Guambe
| image = Guambe 2021-02-19 1115Z.jpg
| caption = Guambe near peak intensity east of the coast of Mozambique on 19 February
| formed = 11 February 2021
| post-tropical = 21 February 2021
| dissipated = 22 February 2021
}}{{Infobox weather event/MFR
| winds = 85
| gusts = 120
| pressure = 953
}}{{Infobox weather event/JTWC
| winds = 90
| pressure = 960
}}{{Infobox weather event/Effects
| year = 2021
| damage = Unknown
| fatalities = None reported
| areas = Madagascar, Mozambique, South Africa, Eswatini
}}{{Infobox weather event/Footer
| season = 2020–21 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season
}}
Tropical Cyclone Guambe was the third tropical cyclone to make landfall in the country of Mozambique since December 2020, following Cyclone Eloise and Tropical Storm Chalane. The eleventh tropical depression, eighth named storm, and the fourth tropical cyclone of the 2020–21 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season, Guambe originated from a tropical disturbance in the Mozambique Channel on 10 February. Two days later, the system developed into a subtropical depression that made landfall in Mozambique. The storm proceeded to make a clockwise loop over the country for the next several days, while dumping prolific amounts of rainfall in the region, before re-emerging into the Mozambique Channel on 16 February. Soon afterward, the system strengthened into a moderate tropical storm and was named Guambe. A couple of days later, Guambe underwent rapid intensification, reaching tropical cyclone status on 19 February, and peaking as a Category 2-equivalent tropical cyclone shortly afterward. Afterward, Guambe underwent an eyewall replacement cycle and weakened back into a severe tropical storm on 20 February. Afterward, Guambe transitioned into an extratropical storm on 22 February. On the next day, Guambe was absorbed into another extratropical cyclone.
After making landfall in Mozambique on 12 February as a subtropical low, Guambe's precursor disturbance caused widespread flooding across Mozambique, which destroyed homes and crops, and also displaced thousands of people weeks after Cyclone Eloise made landfall near the same location. Guambe was estimated to have caused millions of dollars (2021 USD) in damages.{{cite web|title=Global Catastrophe Recap – February 2021|url=http://thoughtleadership.aon.com/documents/20210310_analytics-if-february-global-recap.pdf|work=Aon Benfield|date=March 10, 2021|access-date=March 15, 2021|pages=6|archive-date=18 March 2021|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210318034603/http://thoughtleadership.aon.com/documents/20210310_analytics-if-february-global-recap.pdf|url-status=live}} No deaths were reported from the storm.
Meteorological history
{{Storm path|Guambe 2021 track.png}}
On 10 February, a disturbance developed in the Mozambique Channel between Mozambique and Madagascar. For the next couple of days, the system slowly moved westward, approaching the coast of Mozambique while gradually organizing. On 12 February, Météo-France La Réunion noted that the system had transitioned into a subtropical depression and had made landfall near Inhambane, Mozambique; the subtropical depression was also slowly moving inland without having developed any significant sustained convective activity near the center.{{Cite web|last=|first=|title=Bulletin for Cyclonic Activity And Significant Tropical Weather in the Southwest Indian Ocean: 2021/02/12 AT 1200 UTC|url=http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reunion/webcmrs9.0/anglais/activiteope/bulletins/zcit/ZCITA_202102121236.pdf|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220102124217/http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reunion/webcmrs9.0/anglais/activiteope/bulletins/zcit/ZCITA_202102121236.pdf|archive-date=2 January 2022|website=Meteo France La Reunion|date=February 12, 2021|accessdate=February 13, 2021}} The next day, the system was designated as an overland tropical depression, while bringing locally heavy rainfall across portions of southern Mozambique.{{Cite web|last=|first=|title=Bulletin for Cyclonic Activity And Significant Tropical Weather in the Southwest Indian Ocean: 2021/02/13 AT 1200 UTC|url=http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reunion/webcmrs9.0/anglais/activiteope/bulletins/zcit/ZCITA_202102131034.pdf|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220102124218/http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reunion/webcmrs9.0/anglais/activiteope/bulletins/zcit/ZCITA_202102131034.pdf|archive-date=2 January 2022|website=Meteo France La Reunion|date=February 13, 2021|accessdate=February 13, 2021}} For the next several days, the system made a slow clockwise loop over Mozambique, while slowly organizing. By 15 February, the meandering system had turned back eastward and was expected to re-emerge into the Mozambique Channel.{{Cite web|last=|first=|title=Bulletin for Cyclonic Activity And Significant Tropical Weather in the Southwest Indian Ocean: 2021/02/15 AT 1200 UTC|url=http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reunion/webcmrs9.0/anglais/activiteope/bulletins/zcit/ZCITA_202102151135.pdf|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220102124217/http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reunion/webcmrs9.0/anglais/activiteope/bulletins/zcit/ZCITA_202102151135.pdf|archive-date=2 January 2022|website=Meteo France La Reunion|date=February 15, 2021|accessdate=February 17, 2021}} At 06:00 UTC on 16 February, the system re-emerged over warm open water and was designated as Tropical Disturbance 11.{{Cite web|title=A Tropical Disturbance 11 Warning Number 1/11/20202021|url=http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reunion/webcmrs9.0/anglais/activiteope/bulletins/cmrs/CMRSA_202102160600_1_11_20202021.pdf|url-status=live|website=Meteo France La Reunion|date=February 16, 2021|accessdate=February 16, 2021|archive-date=2 January 2022|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220102124221/http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reunion/webcmrs9.0/anglais/activiteope/bulletins/cmrs/CMRSA_202102160600_1_11_20202021.pdf}} The storm resumed its organizing trend soon afterward, and at 18:00 UTC that day, the MRF upgraded the system to a tropical depression.{{Cite web|title=A Tropical Depression 11 Warning Number 3/11/20202021|url=http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reunion/webcmrs9.0/anglais/activiteope/bulletins/cmrs/CMRSA_202102161800_3_11_20202021.pdf|url-status=live|website=Meteo France La Reunion|date=February 16, 2021|accessdate=February 17, 2021|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220114082533/http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reunion/webcmrs9.0/anglais/activiteope/bulletins/cmrs/CMRSA_202102161800_3_11_20202021.pdf |archive-date=14 January 2022 }}
On 17 February, the depression turned southward and strengthened into Moderate Tropical Storm Guambe at 12:00 UTC that day, with the northern section of the storm becoming enveloped in deep convection.{{Cite web|title=A Moderate Tropical Storm 11 (Guambe) Warning 6/11/20202021|url=http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reunion/webcmrs9.0/anglais/activiteope/bulletins/cmrs/CMRSA_202102171200_GUAMBE.pdf|url-status=live|website=Meteo France La Reunion|date=February 17, 2021|accessdate=February 17, 2021|archive-date=2 January 2022|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220102124218/http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reunion/webcmrs9.0/anglais/activiteope/bulletins/cmrs/CMRSA_202102171200_GUAMBE.pdf}} Around that time, Guambe had a secondary low-level circulation center over northern South Africa, which slowed the storm's southward movement.{{Cite web|title=TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GUAMBE) WARNING NR 002|url=https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/sh2121web.txt|url-status=dead|author=|publisher=JTWC|date=February 18, 2021|access-date=February 18, 2021|archive-date=18 February 2021|archive-url=https://archive.today/20210218183329/https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/sh2121web.txt}} The storm continued strengthening into the next day as thunderstorm activity became more concentrated around the center of the storm's circulation; however, the lack of upper-level divergence initially limited any significant intensification.{{Cite web|title=A Moderate Tropical Storm Guambe Warning Number 9/11/2021|url=http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reunion/webcmrs9.0/anglais/activiteope/bulletins/cmrs/CMRSA_202102180600_GUAMBE.pdf|url-status=live|website=Meteo France La Reunion|date=February 18, 2021|accessdate=February 19, 2021|archive-date=2 January 2022|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220102124218/http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reunion/webcmrs9.0/anglais/activiteope/bulletins/cmrs/CMRSA_202102180600_GUAMBE.pdf}} Despite this, Guambe eventually strengthened into a severe tropical storm at 18:00 UTC on 18 February.{{Cite web|title=A Severe Tropical Storm 11 (Guambe) Warning Number 10/11/20202021|url=http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reunion/webcmrs9.0/anglais/activiteope/bulletins/cmrs/CMRSA_202102181200_GUAMBE.pdf|url-status=live|website=Meteo France La Reunion|date=February 18, 2021|accessdate=February 19, 2021|archive-date=2 January 2022|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220102124218/http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reunion/webcmrs9.0/anglais/activiteope/bulletins/cmrs/CMRSA_202102181200_GUAMBE.pdf}} Over the next several hours, Guambe began undergoing rapid intensification, with a well-defined central dense overcast (CDO) configuration developing, as the cyclone continued becoming more organized.{{Cite web|title=A Severe Tropical Storm 11 (Guambe) Warning Number 12/11/20202021|url=http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reunion/webcmrs9.0/anglais/activiteope/bulletins/cmrs/CMRSA_202102190000_GUAMBE.pdf|url-status=live|website=Meteo France La Reunion|date=February 19, 2021|accessdate=February 19, 2021|archive-date=2 January 2022|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220102124219/http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reunion/webcmrs9.0/anglais/activiteope/bulletins/cmrs/CMRSA_202102190000_GUAMBE.pdf}} Guambe quickly reached tropical cyclone status at 06:00 UTC on 19 February, with the appearance of a very small eye on infrared satellite imagery and a well-defined core structure, even as the storm turned southwestward.{{Cite web|title=A Tropical Cyclone 11 (Guambe) Warning Number 13/11/20202021|url=http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reunion/webcmrs9.0/anglais/activiteope/bulletins/cmrs/CMRSA_202102190600_GUAMBE.pdf|url-status=live|website=Meteo France La Reunion|date=February 19, 2021|accessdate=February 19, 2021|archive-date=2 January 2022|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220102124219/http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reunion/webcmrs9.0/anglais/activiteope/bulletins/cmrs/CMRSA_202102190600_GUAMBE.pdf}}{{cite web|url=https://www.mesvaccins.net/web/news/17097-cyclone-tropical-guambe-au-mozambique|title=Cyclone tropical Guambe au Mozambique|language=French|author=Jacques Morvan|publisher=MesVaccins|date=February 19, 2021|accessdate=February 19, 2021|archive-date=27 February 2021|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210227131410/https://www.mesvaccins.net/web/news/17097-cyclone-tropical-guambe-au-mozambique|url-status=live}} Soon afterward, Guambe reached its peak intensity, with 10-minute sustained winds of {{convert|155|km/h|mph|abbr=on}}, and a minimum central pressure of {{convert|953|mbar|inHg}}.{{Cite web|title=A Tropical Cyclone 11 (Guambe) Warning Number 14/11/20202021|url=http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reunion/webcmrs9.0/anglais/activiteope/bulletins/cmrs/CMRSA_202102191200_GUAMBE.pdf|url-status=live|website=Meteo France La Réunion|date=February 19, 2021|accessdate=February 20, 2021|archive-date=2 January 2022|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220102124220/http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reunion/webcmrs9.0/anglais/activiteope/bulletins/cmrs/CMRSA_202102191200_GUAMBE.pdf}} Around the same time, the JTWC estimated that Guambe had strengthened into a Category 2-equivalent tropical cyclone on the Saffir–Simpson scale (SSHWS), with 1-minute sustained winds at {{convert|155|km/h|mph|abbr=on}}, with the storm's 1-minute sustained wind speed having increased by {{convert|65|km/h|mph|abbr=on}} over a 24-hour period.
The storm's forward motion slowed as Guambe held onto its strength, with the storm's eye disappearing and reappearing on satellite imagery, and sporadic convective bursts.{{Cite web|title=A Tropical Cyclone 11 (Guambe) Warning Number 15/11/20202021|url=http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reunion/webcmrs9.0/anglais/activiteope/bulletins/cmrs/CMRSA_202102191800_GUAMBE.pdf|url-status=live|website=Meteo France La Réunion|date=February 19, 2021|accessdate=February 20, 2021|archive-date=2 January 2022|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220102124220/http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reunion/webcmrs9.0/anglais/activiteope/bulletins/cmrs/CMRSA_202102191800_GUAMBE.pdf}} However, Guambe soon began to weaken, with the storm's feeder bands unravelling and cloud tops warming, though the storm managed to maintain a symmetrical structure with a pinhole eye.{{Cite web|title=TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GUAMBE) WARNING NR 007|url=https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/sh2121web.txt|url-status=dead|author=|publisher=JTWC|date=February 19, 2021|access-date=February 20, 2021|archive-date=20 February 2021|archive-url=https://archive.today/20210220200420/https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/sh2121web.txt}} Despite forecasts of further strengthening, Guambe rapidly weakened back down to severe tropical storm status on 20 February, due to an eyewall replacement cycle, while the storm began accelerating towards the southeast.{{Cite web|title=A Severe Tropical Storm 11 (Guambe) Warning Number 18/11/20202021|url=http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reunion/webcmrs9.0/anglais/activiteope/bulletins/cmrs/liste.html#|url-status=live|website=Meteo France La Réunion|date=February 20, 2021|accessdate=February 20, 2021|archive-date=22 May 2024|archive-url=https://archive.today/20240522000814/https://www.webcitation.org/6y3lIVWbq?url=http://gwydir.demon.co.uk/advisories/WTIO30-FMEE_201803200621.htm}} Guambe further decayed as its rainbands unraveled and its cloud tops warmed, brought on by high wind shear and cool sea surface temperatures.{{citation needed|date=June 2022}} Later on 21 February, Guambe began undergoing an extratropical transition,{{Cite web|title=A Post-Tropical Depression 11 (Ex-Guambe) Warning Number 23/11/20202021|url=http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reunion/webcmrs9.0/anglais/activiteope/bulletins/cmrs/CMRSA_202102211800_EX-GUAMBE.pdf|url-status=live|website=Meteo France La Reunion|date=February 21, 2021|accessdate=February 21, 2021|archive-date=2 January 2022|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220102124223/http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reunion/webcmrs9.0/anglais/activiteope/bulletins/cmrs/CMRSA_202102211800_EX-GUAMBE.pdf}} before completing the transition at 06:00 UTC on the next day, even as the storm began interacting with the southern jet stream. Subsequently, the MRF issued their last advisory on the storm.{{Cite web|title=A Post-Tropical Depression 11 (Ex-Guambe) Warning Number 25/11/20202021|url=http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reunion/webcmrs9.0/anglais/activiteope/bulletins/cmrs/CMRSA_202102220600_EX-GUAMBE.pdf|url-status=live|website=Meteo France La Reunion|date=February 22, 2021|accessdate=February 22, 2021|archive-date=2 January 2022|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220102124222/http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reunion/webcmrs9.0/anglais/activiteope/bulletins/cmrs/CMRSA_202102220600_EX-GUAMBE.pdf}} On 23 February, Guambe was absorbed into another larger extratropical cyclone.
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Preparations and impact
After Guambe's precursor disturbance moved ashore in Mozambique on 12 February, the storm proceeded to produce prolific rainfall across the region for the next several days, leading to widespread flooding, and displacing over 27,000 people. The storm washed out two bridges on the Umbeluzi River, flooded hundreds of homes, and also destroyed numerous crops.{{cite web|url=https://allafrica.com/stories/202102170190.html|title=Mozambique: Thousands Displaced After Heavy Rains Hit|author=Arnaldo Vieira|publisher=AllAfrica|date=February 16, 2021|accessdate=February 17, 2021|archive-date=17 February 2021|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210217101854/https://allafrica.com/stories/202102170190.html|url-status=live}} On 15 February, a prison in southern Mozambique transferred 150 prisoners to another prison facility {{convert|80|km|mi}} away due to the risk of flooding from the storm.{{cite web|url=http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/africa/2021-02/15/c_139744905.htm|title=Prison evacuates 150 inmates for fear of flood risk in southern Mozambique|author=|agency=Xinhua|date=February 15, 2021|accessdate=February 17, 2021|archive-date=16 February 2021|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210216103819/http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/africa/2021-02/15/c_139744905.htm|url-status=live}} The storm struck less than a month after Cyclone Eloise had made landfall near the same place, worsening the ongoing crisis in the region. The storm also caused flooding in parts of northeastern South Africa during this time.{{cite web|url=https://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/content/tracking-tropical-cyclone-guambe|title=Tracking Tropical Cyclone Guambe|author=|publisher=NOAA|date=February 19, 2021|accessdate=February 20, 2021|archive-date=19 February 2021|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210219201710/https://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/content/tracking-tropical-cyclone-guambe|url-status=live}} As a tropical disturbance, Guambe caused millions of dollars (2021 USD) in damages in South Africa. After Guambe re-emerged into the Mozambique Channel on 16 February and began strengthening, local authorities in Mozambique anticipated the threat of additional flooding from the storm in the southern portion of the country, especially the region between Beira and Inhambane.{{cite web|url=https://www.news24.com/witness/news/weather-warning-moderate-tropical-storm-guambe-to-hit-mozambique-20210217|title=WEATHER WARNING: Moderate tropical storm 'Guambe' to hit Mozambique|author=|publisher=February 17, 2021|accessdate=February 17, 2021|archive-date=17 February 2021|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210217153710/https://www.news24.com/witness/news/weather-warning-moderate-tropical-storm-guambe-to-hit-mozambique-20210217|url-status=live}} The mysterious deaths of 186 Spinner dolphins off of Bazaruto Archipelago National Park was thought to be blamed on Cyclone Guambe.{{cite web|url=https://thehill.com/homenews/news/540355-experts-investigating-whether-cyclone-contributed-to-mass-dolphin-deaths|title=Experts investigating whether cyclone contributed to mass dolphin deaths|author=Sarah Polus|work=The Hill|date=February 24, 2021|accessdate=March 1, 2021|archive-date=25 February 2021|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210225195359/https://thehill.com/homenews/news/540355-experts-investigating-whether-cyclone-contributed-to-mass-dolphin-deaths|url-status=live}}{{Cite web|last=Lawal|first=Olorunwa|date=2021-02-24|title=Mozambique Investigates Death of 111 Dolphins|url=https://newscentral.africa/mozambique-investigates-death-of-111-dolphins/|access-date=2021-02-24|website=News Central – Latest in Politics, Business, Sports and stories across Africa|archive-date=24 February 2021|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210224190324/https://newscentral.africa/mozambique-investigates-death-of-111-dolphins/|url-status=live}} However, there were no additional reports of damage to human property as Guambe accelerated southeastward.{{citation needed|date=June 2022}}
See also
{{Portal|Tropical cyclones|Africa}}
- Weather of 2021
- Tropical cyclones in 2021
- Cyclone Idai
- Tropical Storm Chalane
- Cyclone Eloise
- Cyclone Funso
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References
{{reflist|3}}
External links
{{commons category|Cyclone Guambe}}
- [http://www.meteofrance.re Météo-France La Réunion]
- [http://www.meteomadagascar.mg Direction Générale de la Météorologie de Madagascar]
- [http://metservice.intnet.mu Mauritius Meteorological Services]
- [https://web.archive.org/web/20171222221633/http://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)]
{{2020–21 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season buttons}}
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Category:2020–21 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season