Cyclone Ula

{{Infobox weather event

| name = Severe Tropical Cyclone Ula

| image = Ula 2016-01-10 0205Z.jpg

| caption = Ula at peak intensity southeast of Vanuatu on January 10

| formed = December 26, 2015

| extratropical = January 12, 2016

| dissipated = January 16, 2016

}}{{Infobox weather event/FMS

| winds = 100

| pressure = 944

}}{{Infobox weather event/JTWC

| winds = 120

| pressure = 933

}}{{Infobox weather event/Effects

| year = 2015

| missing = 1 {{small|(presumed dead)}}

| damage = Minimal

| areas = {{flatlist|

}}

}}{{Infobox weather event/Footer

| season = 2015–16 South Pacific cyclone season

}}

Severe Tropical Cyclone Ula was a powerful and long-lived tropical cyclone during late December 2015 and mid-January 2016. It originated from a tropical disturbance on December 26, 2015, east of the Solomon Islands. Moving generally east, development was initially slow and the system finally reached cyclone strength—having gale-force winds—on December 30. The newly christened Tropical Cyclone Ula turned sharply south and rapidly intensified, attaining hurricane strength the following day. A shift to the southwest brought the system close to the northern islands of Tonga on January 2, 2016. It subsequently brushed several islands in the Lau Group of Fiji before weakening. Nearly degrading to a tropical depression, Ula turned to the northwest and regained strength. After turning back to the southwest, it achieved its peak intensity as a Category 4 on the Australian scale with winds of {{convert|185|km/h|mph|abbr=on}} on January 10. Thereafter, the storm bypassed Vanuatu to the southeast and New Caledonia to the east as it accelerated southward.

Throughout its existence, Ula affected several nations but its effects were largely limited, with only localized areas reporting damage. Dozens of structures were damaged or destroyed in Tuvalu while crops in Tonga, Fiji, and Vanuatu were impacted. No fatalities have been attributed to the storm, though one person was swept out to sea in American Samoa and was not found. Residents across the Lau Islands of Fiji required food security due to crop losses.

Meteorological history

In late December 2015, a long-lived and powerful westerly wind burst triggered the formation of a tropical disturbance in the south Pacific, along with its twin in the central North Pacific, which became Tropical Depression Nine-C.{{cite report|author1=Derek Wroe|author2=Sam Houston|publisher=Central Pacific Hurricane Center|date=December 13, 2018|access-date=July 4, 2019|title=Hurricane Pali|series=Tropical Cyclone Report|url={{NHC TCR url|id=CP012016_Pali}}|format=PDF|location=Honolulu, Hawaii}} On December 26, 2015, Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS) began monitoring the poorly-organized tropical disturbance, dubbed 05F, to the east of the Solomon Islands. Tracking east, the system struggled to develop within a highly sheared environment.{{cite report|publisher=Fiji Meteorological Service |date=December 26, 2015 |accessdate=January 11, 2016 |title=Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W |url=http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/ww/wwps21.nffn..txt |archivedate=May 22, 2024 |archiveurl=https://archive.today/20240522063135/https://www.webcitation.org/6e3oEdhup?url=http://gwydir.demon.co.uk/advisories/WWPS21-NFFN_201512260900.htm |url-status=dead |df=mdy }} By December 29, the system was centered roughly 230 km (145 mi) northeast of Pago Pago, American Samoa, and had developed a low-level circulation accompanied by persistent convection.{{cite report|work=Joint Typhoon Warning Center |publisher=United States Navy |date=December 29, 2015 |accessdate=January 11, 2016 |title=Significant Tropical Weather Advisory for the Western and South Pacific Oceans |url=http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/ab/abpw10.pgtw..txt |archivedate=May 22, 2024 |archiveurl=https://archive.today/20240522063336/https://www.webcitation.org/6eAPCWNar?url=http://gwydir.demon.co.uk/advisories/ABPW10-PGTW_201512291430.htm |url-status=dead |df=mdy }} Development hastened throughout the day, with banding features forming and upper-level outflow becoming established over the system.{{cite report|work=Joint Typhoon Warning Center |publisher=United States Navy |date=December 29, 2015 |accessdate=January 11, 2016 |title=Significant Tropical Weather Advisory for the Western and South Pacific Oceans |url=http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/ab/abpw10.pgtw..txt |archivedate=May 22, 2024 |archiveurl=https://archive.today/20240522063256/https://www.webcitation.org/6eAPCDrA6?url=http://gwydir.demon.co.uk/advisories/ABPW10-PGTW_201512292000.htm |url-status=dead |df=mdy }} The system soon acquired gale-force and the FMS upgraded the system to a tropical depression at 21:00 UTC.{{cite report|publisher=Fiji Meteorological Service |date=December 29, 2015 |accessdate=January 11, 2016 |title=Gale Warning 024 |url=http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/wo/wops02.nffn..txt |archivedate=May 22, 2024 |archiveurl=https://archive.today/20240522063216/https://www.webcitation.org/6eAO1LbJp?url=http://gwydir.demon.co.uk/advisories/WOPS02-NFFN_201512292100.htm |url-status=dead |df=mdy }}

Ula moved to the south and eventually west as the system intensified. By January 2, Ula had attained hurricane strength as the storm was upgraded into a Category 2 Tropical Cyclone. Ula has subsequently attained a preliminary peak intensity at Category 3 tropical cyclone status, equivalent to Category 2 hurricane status. Ula weakened afterwards, only to re-intensify to category 3 status again the next day. By January 7, however, Ula turned northwest, slowed and dropped to tropical cyclone status. With the unfavorable conditions, Ula remained at that status for three days. On January 10, Ula rapidly re-intensified to a peak intensity of 115 mph (ten-minute sustained) or 140 mph (one-minute sustained) winds. This constituted as peak intensity and Ula was upgraded to category 4 severe tropical cyclone status, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center upgraded Ula to a category 4 cyclone. Ula kept category 4 status for 24 hours before an abrupt weakening to a tropical depression. By 12:00 UTC on January 12, Ula transitioned into an extratropical cyclone.{{cite report|publisher=Meteorological Service of New Zealand Limited |date=January 12, 2016 |accessdate=January 12, 2016 |title=Gale Warning 126 |url=http://weather.gmdss.org/bulletins/METAREA14.GALE_STORM_WARNING_SOUTH_25S.1240.1212411634990.html |archivedate=May 22, 2024 |archiveurl=https://archive.today/20240522063416/https://www.webcitation.org/6eUADlJCZ?url=http://gwydir.demon.co.uk/advisories/WWNZ40-NZKL_201601121240.htm |url-status=dead |df=mdy }}

Preparations and impact

=Tuvalu and American Samoa=

File:Ula 2016-01-03 0130Z.jpg

Early in the storm's existence, Ula produced winds up to {{convert|100|km/h|mph|abbr=on}} across Tuvalu, uprooting trees and leaving 40 homes and 10 businesses damaged, some beyond repair Thirty families required evacuation.{{cite web|publisher=Radio New Zealand International|date=December 31, 2015|accessdate=January 11, 2016|title=Tuvalu recovering but could face new storm|url=http://www.radionz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/293237/tuvalu-recovering-but-could-face-new-storm}} Waves of {{convert|3|to|4|m|ft|abbr=on}} also battered the islands, whose highest elevation is only {{convert|4.6|m|ft|abbr=on}}.{{cite news|publisher=Australian Broadcasting Corporation|date=December 31, 2015|accessdate=January 11, 2016|title=Tuvalu battered by heavy rains, strong winds as Pacific island nations brace for Cyclone Ula|url=http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-12-31/pacific-island-nations-battered-by-heavy-rains-and-strong-winds/7061982}} A fisherman went missing in Faleasao, American Samoa, after being swept out to sea by large swells. After 72 hours, fruitless search efforts were called off.{{cite web|publisher=Radio New Zealand International|date=January 6, 2016|accessdate=January 11, 2016|title=Missing man in American Samoa named|url=http://www.radionz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/293583/missing-man-in-american-samoa-named}}

=Tonga=

On January 1, Tongan Prime Minister ʻAkilisi Pōhiva preemptively declared a state of emergency for the Vavaʻu and Haʻapai islands. Eleven shelters were opened, with 390 seeking refuge in them.{{cite news|newspaper=Matangi Tonga|date=January 2, 2016|accessdate=January 11, 2016|title=No casualties in Vava'u after TC Ula|url=http://www.matangitonga.to/2016/01/02/no-casualties-vavau-after-tc-ula|location=Nuku'alofa, Tonga}} Flights across the nation were suspended for the duration of the storm.{{cite web|publisher=Radio New Zealand |date=January 2, 2016|accessdate=January 11, 2016|title=Local MP says Tonga escapes major damage from Ula|url=http://www.radionz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/293370/local-mp-says-tonga-escapes-major-damage-from-ula}} Strong winds up to {{convert|150|km/h|mph|abbr=on}} downed trees, power lines, and tore roofs from homes, with Vava'u suffering the brunt of the damage.{{cite web|website=Stuff |date=January 3, 2016|accessdate=January 11, 2016|title=Tonga takes stock after Cyclone Ula creates widespread damage |url=http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/south-pacific/75600686/tonga-takes-stock-after-cyclone-ula-creates-widespread-damage}} Overall damage was limited, however, and the previously issued state of emergency was lifted on January 6.{{cite web|publisher=Radio New Zealand |date=January 6, 2016|accessdate=January 11, 2016|title=State of Emergency lifted in Tonga after cyclone does little|url=http://www.radionz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/293561/state-of-emergency-lifted-in-tonga-after-cyclone-does-little}}

=Fiji=

After brushing Tonga, Fiji's Lau Islands were in the path of Ula. Officials across the small islands advised residents to move to higher ground and seek shelter in sturdy buildings.{{cite web|publisher=Radio New Zealand |date=January 2, 2016|accessdate=January 11, 2016|title=Fiji's Lau group prepares for Cyclone Ula|url=http://www.radionz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/293383/fiji's-lau-group-prepares-for-cyclone-ula}} Boat services across the Yasawa Islands were temporarily suspended.{{cite news|author=Repeka Nasiko|newspaper=Fiji Times|date=January 5, 2016|accessdate=January 11, 2016|title=Boat services on hold amid strong winds|url=http://www.fijitimes.com/story.aspx?ref=archive&id=336472|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160304103842/http://www.fijitimes.com/story.aspx?ref=archive&id=336472|archive-date=March 4, 2016|url-status=dead}} Though the cyclone passed close to a few islands, damage was relatively limited. Corrugated iron roofs were blown off some structures on Ono-i-Lau and Kabara. Two homes were destroyed on Vatoa.{{cite news|author=Nasik Swami|newspaper=Fiji Times|date=January 5, 2016|accessdate=January 11, 2016|title=NDMO: Two houses destroyed in Vatoa|url=http://www.fijitimes.com/story.aspx?ref=archive&id=336556|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160304074933/http://www.fijitimes.com/story.aspx?ref=archive&id=336556|archive-date=March 4, 2016|url-status=dead}} Power and water supplies were temporarily disrupted.{{cite web|publisher=Radio New Zealand |date=January 4, 2016|accessdate=January 11, 2016|title=Worst over for Fiji's Lau islands|url=http://www.radionz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/293429/worst-over-for-fiji's-lau-islands}} Crops also sustained significant damage,{{cite web|publisher=Radio New Zealand |date=January 4, 2016|accessdate=January 11, 2016|title=Cyclone Ula causes minor damage in Fiji|url=http://www.radionz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/293446/cyclone-ula-causes-minor-damage-in-fiji}} with 50 percent lost across the Lau Islands,{{cite web|publisher=Radio New Zealand |date=February 17, 2016|accessdate=February 17, 2016|title=Cyclone damage assessment for Tonga, Niue on alert|url=http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/pacific/296617/cyclone-damage-assessment-for-tonga,-niue-on-alert}} prompting the Fijian Government to provide a month's-worth of food rations to residents across 13 villages.{{cite news|author=Keresi Nauwakarawa|newspaper=Fiji Times|date=January 11, 2016|accessdate=January 11, 2016|title=Food ration for villages in Lau|url=http://www.fijitimes.com/story.aspx?id=337314|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160304103924/http://www.fijitimes.com/story.aspx?id=337314|archive-date=March 4, 2016|url-status=dead}} General relief supplies, including disaster kits, medicine, and water purifying tablets, were also distributed to Ono-i-Lau, Ogea, Fulaga and Kabara.{{cite news|author=Mere Naleba|newspaper=Fiji Times|date=January 7, 2016|accessdate=January 11, 2016|title=Relief supplies|url=http://www.fijitimes.com/story.aspx?ref=archive&id=336733|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160304103627/http://www.fijitimes.com/story.aspx?ref=archive&id=336733|archive-date=March 4, 2016|url-status=dead}} The cyclone's outer bands caused flooding in northern provinces, including Ba.{{cite news|author=Shayal Devi|newspaper=Fiji Times|date=January 8, 2016|accessdate=January 11, 2016|title=Heavy rain, flash flooding in Sarava|url=http://www.fijitimes.com/story.aspx?ref=archive&id=336937|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160304103554/http://www.fijitimes.com/story.aspx?ref=archive&id=336937|archive-date=March 4, 2016|url-status=dead}} Rainfall was largely beneficial to the nation, particularly for the Western Division, which was in the midst of a drought.{{cite news|author=Shayal Devi|newspaper=Fiji Times|date=January 8, 2016|accessdate=January 11, 2016|title=Rain brings relief|url=http://www.fijitimes.com/story.aspx?ref=archive&id=336831|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160304103722/http://www.fijitimes.com/story.aspx?ref=archive&id=336831|archive-date=March 4, 2016|url-status=dead}}

=Vanuatu and New Caledonia=

Vanuatu's southernmost province of Tafea was placed on alert in advance of Ula's approach. The province was devastated by Cyclone Pam in March 2015, but reported to be prepared to endure another storm. Residents were urged to evacuate and fishermen were advised to return to port.{{cite web|publisher=Radio New Zealand |date=January 10, 2016|accessdate=January 11, 2016|title=Vanuatu's Tafea province feeling effects of Ula|url=http://www.radionz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/293803/vanuatu's-tafea-province-feeling-effects-of-ula}} The storm ultimately remained far enough away to cause only limited damage,{{cite web|publisher=Radio New Zealand |date=January 11, 2016|accessdate=January 11, 2016|title=Vanuatu given all clear as Cyclone Ula moves south|url=http://www.radionz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/293846/vanuatu-given-all-clear-as-cyclone-ula-moves-south}} primarily to agriculture on Aneityum and Futuna islands.{{cite web|author=Catherine Graue|work=Pacific Beat|publisher=Australian Broadcasting Corporation|date=January 13, 2016|accessdate=February 21, 2016|title=Vanuatu communities coping after Cyclone Ula|url=http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-01-13/vanuatu-communities-coping-after-cyclone-ula/7085992}} Alerts were temporarily raised for Maré Island, New Caledonia; Ula eventually passed harmlessly to the east of the island.