Draft:Earth4All

{{AFC submission|r||u=Pepa998|ns=118|reviewer=WeirdNAnnoyed|reviewts=20250630212852|ts=20250626101312}}

{{AFC submission|d|nn|u=Pepa998|ns=118|reviewer=DoubleGrazing|reviewts=20250310110827|decliner=DoubleGrazing|declinets=20250310150430|reason2=npov|ts=20250310105933}}

{{AFC submission|d|corp|u=Pepa998|ns=118|decliner=SafariScribe|declinets=20250109141744|small=yes|ts=20250109124957}}

{{AFC comment|1=This is close to acceptable, but in my opinion not quite there yet.

Decline reasons:

1. NOTABILITY

Source analysis:

1 This seems a solid source.

2-10 Close primary sources

11 I've no idea what this is, some sort of content repository?

12 Again, not sure what this is, or who's authored it?

13 Not fully independent, one of the authors is from SRC

14 (See comment below)

15-17 Close primary sources (at least in part)

18-19 Don't mention the subject at all

20-22 Primary sources

23 No mention of the subject?

24 Difficult to evaluate, as this is a portal to a number of articles

RE #14, it's not entirely clear to me what the relationship of Earth4All is to Earth for All, and whether this source is about one or the other, and if so which one, or both. At least part of the resolution to this ambiguity is making sure that the draft clearly focuses on one, and only one, subject, be it E4A or EfA.

In conclusion, #1 is good, but alone not enough; #14 may or may not be relevant; and there could be something in #24 but in that case specific content providing significant coverage of the subject must be clearly cited, it isn't enough to say that la Repubblica "dedicated" its event to E4A.

2. LANGUAGE

This reads like it came from the initiative's marketing/comms team, as indeed it evidently did, and by many of the sources being very close to the subject. Wikipedia articles should be composed by summarising what independent and reliable sources have previously published the subject, not made up of what the subject wants to tell the world about itself, as that makes the content (and tone) inherently promotional.

The text would also benefit from a rewrite to reduce jargon and buzzspeak, to make it more accessible to a non-expert reader.

-- DoubleGrazing (talk) 15:04, 10 March 2025 (UTC)}}

{{AFC comment|1=Note to reviewers: I believe this is notable enough for acceptance. Recusing myself from accepting as I helped the user in #wikipedia-en-help and there is a (now declared) COI, so a second set of eyes would be useful. qcne (talk) 11:00, 10 March 2025 (UTC)}}

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Earth4All is an initiative launched in 2022 that promotes economic systems change to achieve sustainable development and social equity within planetary boundaries..{{Cite web |last=Jessop |first=Simon |date=September 5, 2022 |title=Tackling inequality key to climate fight - study |url=https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/tackling-inequality-key-climate-fight-study-2022-09-05/ |access-date=9 January 2025 |website=Reuters}}{{Cite web |date=2022-08-31 |title=Report says rich must pay bill to avert social collapse |url=https://apnews.com/article/berlin-economic-growth-climate-and-environment-4c54a637e0a2791f00576621b3c26e75 |access-date=2025-03-12 |website=AP News |language=en}}{{Cite web |title=Studie: Reiche sollten Steuern für das Klima zahlen – DW – 30.08.2022 |url=https://www.dw.com/de/studie-reiche-sollten-f%C3%BCr-die-rettung-des-planeten-bezahlen/a-62972379 |access-date=2025-03-12 |website=dw.com |language=de}} The project builds upon the legacy of The Limits to Growth report from 1972 and is convened by the Club of Rome, the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, the Stockholm Resilience Centre and the BI Norwegian Business School. Earth4All is also the name of the computer model used in the initiative's research, while the initiative's primary publication is titled Earth for All: A Survival Guide for Humanity.

Background

The initiative emerged from discussions among economic thinkers, scientists, advocates and policy experts about the need for new models to address 21st-century challenges. It was conceived as a follow-up to the Limits to Growth study, which used computer modelling to examine the implications of exponential economic and population growth with finite resources.

Main components

= ''Earth for All: A Survival Guide for Humanity'' =

The initiative's publication, Earth for All: A Survival Guide for Humanity (2022){{Cite book |last=Dixson-Decleve |first=Sandrine |title=Earth for All: A Survival Guide for Humanity |date=2022 |publisher=New Society Publishers, Limited |others=Owen Gaffney, Jayati Ghosh, Jorgen Randers, Johan Rockstrom, Per Espen Stoknes |isbn=978-0-86571-986-6 |edition=1st |location=Gabriola Island}}, presents analysis and recommendations based on computer modelling. The book was co-authored by Sandrine Dixson-Declève, Owen Gaffney, Jayati Ghosh, Jørgen Randers (co-author of The Limits to Growth), Johan Rockström and Per Espen Stoknes, with a foreword by climate activist Elizabeth Wathuti. It outlines five "extraordinary turnarounds" needed to achieve sustainable prosperity and wellbeing on a finite planet:

Eliminate poverty

Reduce inequality

Empower women

Transform food systems

Transform energy systems

The analysis stresses that these turnarounds must be implemented simultaneously in order to achieve the desired outcomes.

Alongside the five turnarounds, the book proposes a transformation of the current economic system to one that prioritises human and planetary wellbeing above economic growth.

The book has been published in 11 languages and the Argentinian version was recognised in 2024 as a book of legislative interest by the City of Buenos Aires{{Cite web |last=Argentina |first=Club de Roma |date=2024-12-19 |title=El libro "La Tierra para Todos" es declarado de Interés Legislativo en Buenos Aires |url=https://www.clubderoma.org.ar/post/el-libro-la-tierra-para-todos-es-declarado-de-inter%C3%A9s-legislativo-en-buenos-aires#:~:text=El%20pasado%2011%20de%20diciembre,la%20declaraci%C3%B3n%20de%20inter%C3%A9s%20legislativo. |access-date=2025-01-09 |website=Club de Roma Arg. |language=es}}. A further book applying the Earth4All modelling to Germany, Earth for All: Germany was published in October 2024 and reached number nine on the Der Spiegel nonfiction bestseller list{{Cite web |last=Institut |first=Wuppertal |title=Earth for All Deutschland: Jetzt auch als Hörbuch erhältlich |url=https://wupperinst.org/a/wi/a/s/ad/8739 |access-date=2025-01-09 |website=wupperinst.org |language=de}}

= System dynamics modelling =

Earth4All employs system dynamics to analyse potential future scenarios. The computer model used for this analysis is based on the World4 computer simulation model, an updated version of the World3 model used to produce The Limits to Growth. The project developed two main scenarios:

"Too Little Too Late" - modelling current policy trajectories

"Giant Leap" - modelling transformative policy changes

These scenarios are detailed in the book Earth for All: A Survival Guide for Humanity and are used by the Earth4All initiative as a basis for policy proposals to achieve the "Giant Leap" scenario. In this scenario, rapid global cooperation to enact the five "extraordinary turnarounds" results in stabilised temperatures, reduced material use, and the end of extreme poverty. According to the model, in this scenario social tension falls, inequality is reduced, and wellbeing rises. The authors warn of social breakdown if the alternative scenario is pursued.

The computer modelling, alongside the Millennium Institute's iSDG model{{Cite web |last=Onasanya |first=Adedoyin |date=2023-06-22 |title=Assessing Earth4All's 5 Turnarounds with the iSDG Model |url=https://www.millennium-institute.org/post/assessing-earth4all-s-5-turnarounds-with-the-isdg-model |access-date=2025-01-09 |website=millennium2024 |language=en}}, has since been used to model these scenarios for Kenya{{Cite web |title=Kenya could eradicate poverty and achieve economic prosperity by 2050 – and Kenyan citizens strongly support bold and immediate action - Earth4All |url=https://earth4all.life/news/earth4all-kenya-report-launch/ |access-date=2025-01-09 |language=en-US}}, Germany{{Cite web |title=Earth for All Germany: Towards a future for all - Earth4All |url=https://earth4all.life/news/earth-for-all-germany-towards-a-future-for-all/ |access-date=2025-01-09 |language=en-US}} and Austria{{Cite web |title=A new vision for Austria: From Too Little Too Late to a Giant Leap for sustainability - Earth4All |url=https://earth4all.life/news/a-new-vision-for-austria/ |access-date=2025-01-09 |language=en-US}}, and to analyse pathways towards the SDGs in Sub-Saharan Africa{{Cite web |last=Thomas |first=David |date=2024-09-04 |title=Scientists say grim future awaits Africa without radical SDGs action |url=https://african.business/2024/09/resources/scientists-say-grim-future-awaits-africa-without-radical-sdgs-action |access-date=2025-03-12 |website=African Business |language=en-GB}} and globally.{{Cite web |date=2024-10-16 |title=SDGs for All: Strategic Scenarios. Earth4All System Dynamics Modelling of SDG Progress |url=https://www.stockholmresilience.org/publications/publications/2024-10-16-sdgs-for-all-strategic-scenarios.-earth4all-system-dynamics-modelling-of-sdg-progress.html |access-date=2025-01-09 |website=www.stockholmresilience.org |language=en}}

The global and regional models are available open source {{Cite web |title=Box |url=https://stockholmuniversity.app.box.com/s/uh7fjh52pvh7yx1mqfwqcyxdcvegrodf |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240718145728/https://stockholmuniversity.app.box.com/s/uh7fjh52pvh7yx1mqfwqcyxdcvegrodf |archive-date=2024-07-18 |access-date=2025-01-09 |website=stockholmuniversity.app.box.com |language=en-US |url-status=live }} {{Cite web |date=2024-04-29 |title=e4a-regional (3871) |url=https://kumu.io/ugol/e4a-regional-3871 |access-date=2025-01-09 |website=Kumu}} and are subject to ongoing academic analysis and discussion{{Cite journal |last1=Feder |first1=Christophe |last2=Callegari |first2=Beniamino |last3=Collste |first3=David |date=2024-04-01 |title=The system dynamics approach for a global evolutionary analysis of sustainable development |url=https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00191-024-00866-6 |journal=Journal of Evolutionary Economics |language=en |volume=34 |issue=2 |pages=351–374 |doi=10.1007/s00191-024-00866-6 |issn=1432-1386}}{{Cite journal |last1=Crescenzi |first1=Pierluigi |last2=Gambosi |first2=Giorgio |last3=Nasti |first3=Lucia |last4=Rossi |first4=Aurora |last5=Natale |first5=Emanuele |date=2024 |title=A sensitivity analysis of the Earth for all model: Getting the giant leap scenario with fewer policies |url=https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jiec.13582 |journal=Journal of Industrial Ecology |language=en |volume=28 |issue=6 |pages=1481–1492 |doi=10.1111/jiec.13582 |bibcode=2024JInEc..28.1481C |issn=1530-9290}}{{Cite web |date=2023-05-21 |title=The science behind Earth4All |url=https://earth4all.life/the-science/ |access-date=2025-01-09 |language=en-US}}.

Reception and impact

The book and initiative have generated discussion across academic{{Cite journal |last=Pierluigi Crescenzi, Aurora Rossi, Emanuele Natale |date=18 Nov 2023 |title=An open source implementation of the Earth4All integrated assessment model |url=https://hal.science/hal-04293350/document |journal=Hal Open Science}}, policy, and public spheres since its launch. It was featured at the 2023 European Parliament "Beyond Growth" conference, with Executive Chair Sandrine Dixson-Declève giving a keynote address{{Cite AV media |url=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dhoIS79tp0s&ab_channel=TheClubofRome |title=Beyond Growth opening plenary - Limits to Growth: where do we stand and where do we go from here? |date=2023-05-15 |last=The Club of Rome |access-date=2025-01-09 |via=YouTube}}. Its 2024 research{{Cite web |date=2024-06-23 |title=Global Survey 2024 - Earth4All |url=https://earth4all.life/global-survey-2024/ |access-date=2025-01-09 |language=en-US}} conducted with Ipsos into public attitudes to progressive tax policies was quoted by economist Gabriel Zucman in support of a G20 initiative for a global wealth tax{{Cite web |last=Zucman |first=Gabriel |date=2024-08-06 |title=Taxing the Superrich Is More Possible – and More Necessary – Than Ever {{!}} by Gabriel Zucman |url=https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/billionaire-wealth-tax-progress-made-at-the-g20-must-continue-by-gabriel-zucman-2024-08 |access-date=2025-01-09 |website=Project Syndicate |language=en}}

Its analysis has influenced organisations and initiatives including H&M Foundation{{Cite web |date=2024-10-23 |title=Gathering the industry to co-create for a just and fair net-zero future – H&M Foundation |url=https://hmfoundation.com/2024/10/23/gathering-the-industry-to-co-create-for-a-just-and-fair-net-zero-future/ |access-date=2025-01-09 |website=hmfoundation.com |language=en-GB}}{{Cite web |date=2024-10-10 |title=Our vision – H&M Foundation |url=https://hmfoundation.com/our-vision/ |access-date=2025-01-09 |website=hmfoundation.com |language=en-GB}} and the European Youth Orchestra, who based its 2023 tour on the initiative{{Cite web |title=European Union Youth Orchestra |url=https://euyo.eu/news/1743/ |access-date=2025-01-09 |website=euyo.eu |language=en}}. In 2023, Italian newspaper La Repubblica named its annual Green&Blue festival "Earth for All, Una Terra per Tutti" inspired by the book.{{Cite web |last=TG24 |first=Sky |date=2023-06-05 |title="Una Terra per tutti": a Roma il Festival Green&Blue |url=https://tg24.sky.it/ambiente/2023/06/05/festival-green-and-blue-diretta |access-date=2025-03-12 |website=tg24.sky.it |language=it}}

= Population projections =

In 2023 the Earth4All initiative published a paper on its model’s projections on global population growth{{Cite web |last=#author.fullName} |title=Reducing inequality could see world population fall to 6 billion |url=https://www.newscientist.com/article/2366088-reducing-inequality-could-see-world-population-fall-to-6-billion/ |access-date=2025-03-12 |website=New Scientist |language=en-US}}. The model suggests that the world’s population will peak earlier than predicted by previous studies, reaching a high of 8.8 billion in the middle of the 21^st century then declining rapidly{{Cite web |last=Times |first=The Brussels |title=Global population could peak in 2040, then drop to 6 billion by 2100 |url=https://www.brusselstimes.com/430020/global-population-could-peak-in-2040-then-drop-to-6-billion-by-2100 |access-date=2025-03-12 |website=www.brusselstimes.com |language=en}}{{Cite news |last=Watts |first=Jonathan |date=2023-03-27 |title=World 'population bomb' may never go off as feared, finds study |url=https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/27/world-population-bomb-may-never-go-off-as-feared-finds-study |access-date=2025-03-12 |work=The Guardian |language=en-GB |issn=0261-3077}} . These projections were critiqued by some as overly optimistic {{Cite web |last=Stallworthy |first=Ben |date=2023-05-03 |title=Sustainable Population: the Earth4All Approach |url=https://populationmatters.org/news/2023/05/sustainable-population-the-earth4all-approach/ |access-date=2025-03-12 |website=Population Matters |language=en-GB}}{{Cite web |last=Frey |first=Dr Sibylle |date=2023-06-01 |title=The imaginary world of Earth4All's low population projections |url=https://mahb.stanford.edu/blog/the-imaginary-world-of-earth4alls-low-population-projections/ |access-date=2025-03-12 |website=MAHB |language=en-US}}

The study also analysed the connection between population and exceeding planetary boundaries. It found that population size is not the prime driver of exceeding planetary boundaries such as climate change, but rather the high material footprint of the world’s richest 10%.{{Cite web |date=2023-04-09 |title=Trevor Hancock: It's not population growth but inequality that's the problem |url=https://www.timescolonist.com/opinion/trevor-hancock-its-not-population-growth-but-inequality-thats-the-problem-6827220 |access-date=2025-03-12 |website=Times Colonist |language=en}}