Economic puzzle

{{short description|Mismatch between economic theory and observation}}

{{Refimprove|date=April 2025}}

In economics, a puzzle{{cite web |title=Solving the country’s economic puzzle |url=https://research.manchester.ac.uk/en/clippings/solving-the-countrys-economic-puzzle |website=research.manchester.ac.uk |access-date=8 April 2025 |language=en}}{{cite web |title=On The Up: Is self-belief the missing piece of the economic puzzle? |url=https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/economy/crisis-of-confidence-is-self-belief-the-missing-piece-of-the-economic-puzzle/FQKTXHSTXBCCXGG7X6CASQRTQQ/ |website=nzherald.co.nz |access-date=8 April 2025 |language=en-NZ |date=8 April 2025}} is a situation where the implication of theory is inconsistent with observed economic data.

An example is the equity premium puzzle, which relates to the fact that over the last two hundred years, the risk premium of stocks over bonds has been around 5.5%, much larger than expected from theory. The equity premium puzzle was first documented by Mehra and Prescot (1985).