Extreme event attribution

Attribution science was first mentioned in a 2011 "State of the Climate" published by the American Meteorological Society which stated that climate change is linked to six extreme weather events that were studied.{{cite news |last1=Hu |first1=Jane |date=19 December 2019 |title=The Decade of Attribution Science |work=Slate |url=https://slate.com/technology/2019/12/attribution-science-field-explosion-2010s-climate-change.html |access-date=3 September 2021}}

German climatologist Friederike Otto posited that attribution science aims to answer the question, "did climate change play a role" in specific extreme events "within the news time frame – so within two weeks of the event".{{cite news |last1=Sneed |first1=Annie |title=Yes, Some Extreme Weather Can Be Blamed on Climate Change |url=https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/yes-some-extreme-weather-can-be-blamed-on-climate-change/ |access-date=3 September 2021 |work=Scientific American |date=2 January 2017}}

Attribution studies generally proceed in four steps: (1) measuring the magnitude and frequency of a given event based on observed data, (2) running computer models to compare with and verify observation data, (3) running the same models on a baseline "Earth" with no climate change, and (4) using statistics to analyze the differences between the second and third steps, thereby measuring the direct effect of climate change on the studied event.

Heatwaves are the easiest weather events to attribute. Understanding the relevant drivers and their model representation, such as the atmospheric dynamics, atmospheric and soil moisture, and surface cover, will be essential ways to improve heatwave prediction and projection.Domeisen, D. I. V., Eltahir, E. A. B., Fischer, E. M., Knutti, R., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S. E., Schär, C., Seneviratne, S. I., Weisheimer, A., & Wernli, H. (2023). Prediction and projection of heatwaves. Nature Reviews. Earth & Environment, 4(1), 36–50. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-022-00371-z

Climate change can affect the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events differently, for example the 2010 Russia heat wave was made far more likely but not more intense.

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| image1= 2024 Climate change increasing Atlantic hurricane peak wind speeds.svg | caption1= Climate Central applied a hurricane attribution framework from an Environmental Research: Climate paper to conclude that climate change's increase of water temperatures intensified peak wind speeds in all eleven 2024 Atlantic hurricanes.● {{cite journal |last1=Gilford |first1=Daniel M. |last2=Giguere |first2=Joseph |last3=Pershing |first3=Andrew J. |title=Human-caused ocean warming has intensified recent hurricanes |journal=Environmental Research: Climate |date=20 November 2024 |volume=3 |issue=4 |doi=10.1088/2752-5295/ad8d02|doi-access=free }}
● Explained in {{cite web |url=https://assets.ctfassets.net/cxgxgstp8r5d/gbIn7ANc1uAzb5cbwQMXC/58c45b96cac793be4cbc215502d4b4bd/Climate_Central_2024_hurricane_attribution_report.pdf |title=Climate change increased wind speeds for every 2024 Atlantic hurricane: Analysis |publisher=Climate Central |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20241120111425/https://assets.ctfassets.net/cxgxgstp8r5d/gbIn7ANc1uAzb5cbwQMXC/58c45b96cac793be4cbc215502d4b4bd/Climate_Central_2024_hurricane_attribution_report.pdf |archive-date=20 November 2024 |date=20 November 2024 |url-status=live}}

| image2= 202505 Escalation of extreme heat - 247 countries - attribution to climate change.svg | caption2= Scientists in the field of extreme event attribution have concluded that in virtually all countries and territories around the world in a one-year period beginning in May 2024, human-caused global warming has increased the number of days of extreme heat events over long-term norms.{{cite web |last1=Giguere |first1=Otto |last2=Tanenenbaum |first2=Vahlbert |title=Climate Change and the Escalation of Global Extreme Heat: Assessing and Addressing the Risks |url=https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/wp-content/uploads/Report_-Climate-Change-and-the-Escalation-of-Global-Extreme-Heat-Heat-Action-Day-2025.pdf |publisher=Climate Central, Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, and World Weather Attribution |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250531004758/https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/wp-content/uploads/Report_-Climate-Change-and-the-Escalation-of-Global-Extreme-Heat-Heat-Action-Day-2025.pdf |archive-date=31 May 2025 |date=30 May 2025 |url-status=live}} Click on "Download the data", and in spreadsheet choose "Countries and territories" tab at bottom to view raw data.

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Attribution science may affect climate change litigation, perhaps by increasing lawsuits against companies for causing and governments for not addressing climate change.{{cite news |last1=Harvey |first1=Chelsea |date=2 January 2018 |title=Scientists Can Now Blame Individual Natural Disasters on Climate Change |work=Scientific American |url=https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/scientists-can-now-blame-individual-natural-disasters-on-climate-change/ |access-date=3 September 2021}}{{Cite journal |last=Schiermeier |first=Quirin |date=2021-09-08 |title=Climate science is supporting lawsuits that could help save the world |journal=Nature |volume=597 |issue=7875 |pages=169–171 |doi=10.1038/d41586-021-02424-7|pmid=34497398 |bibcode=2021Natur.597..169S |s2cid=237452741 }}

• A review summarized confidence, probabilities and costs-severities – such as economic costs, financial costs and number of early losses of life – of links to climate change and identified potential ways for the improvement of the field such as "improving the recording of extreme weather impacts around the world, improving the coverage of attribution studies across different events and regions, and using attribution studies to explore the contributions of both climate and non-climate drivers of impacts."{{cite news |title=Climate change is driving 2022 extreme heat and flooding |work=Thomson Reuters Foundation |url=https://news.trust.org/item/20220628092027-g2xea/ |access-date=19 July 2022}}{{cite journal |last1=Clarke |first1=Ben |last2=Otto |first2=Friederike |last3=Stuart-Smith |first3=Rupert |last4=Harrington |first4=Luke |date=28 June 2022 |title=Extreme weather impacts of climate change: an attribution perspective |journal=Environmental Research: Climate |volume=1 |issue=1 |pages=012001 |doi=10.1088/2752-5295/ac6e7d |s2cid=250134589|doi-access=free |hdl=10044/1/97290 |hdl-access=free }}

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• Scientists of the international World Weather Attribution project publicized a study that found that human-caused climate change had an influence on the 2019–20 Australian wildfires by causing high-risk conditions that made widespread burning at least 30 percent more likely. They comment on the results, stating that climate change probably had more effects on the fires which couldn't be attributed using their climate simulations and that not all drivers of the fires showed imprints of anthropogenic climate change.{{cite news |last1=Fountain |first1=Henry |title=Climate Change Affected Australia's Wildfires, Scientists Confirm |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/04/climate/australia-wildfires-climate-change.html |access-date=6 April 2020 |work=The New York Times |date=4 March 2020}}{{cite journal |last1=Oldenborgh |first1=Geert Jan van |last2=Krikken |first2=Folmer |last3=Lewis |first3=Sophie |last4=Leach |first4=Nicholas J. |last5=Lehner |first5=Flavio |last6=Saunders |first6=Kate R. |last7=Weele |first7=Michiel van |last8=Haustein |first8=Karsten |last9=Li |first9=Sihan |last10=Wallom |first10=David |last11=Sparrow |first11=Sarah |last12=Arrighi |first12=Julie |last13=Singh |first13=Roop P. |last14=Aalst |first14=Maarten K. van |last15=Philip |first15=Sjoukje Y. |last16=Vautard |first16=Robert |last17=Otto |first17=Friederike E. L. |title=Attribution of the Australian bushfire risk to anthropogenic climate change |journal=Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions |date=11 March 2020 |pages=1–46 |doi=10.5194/nhess-2020-69 |doi-access=free |hdl=20.500.11850/475524 |hdl-access=free }}
• The World Weather Attribution initiative has attributed the 2021 Western North America heat wave to climate change.{{Cite news|date=2021-08-09|title=Extreme weather: How is it connected to climate change? |work=BBC News|url=https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-58073295|access-date=2021-09-03}}
• The Climate Attribution Database contains scientific resources organized by theme.{{cite web |last1=Cho |first1=Renee |title=Attribution science: Linking climate change to extreme weather |url=https://phys.org/news/2021-10-attribution-science-linking-climate-extreme.html |website=phys.org |publisher=Columbia University |access-date=6 August 2022 }}
• A study of 2020 storms of at least tropical storm-strength published in Nature Communications concluded that human-induced climate change increased extreme 3-hourly storm rainfall rates by 10%, and extreme 3-day accumulated rainfall amounts by 5%. For hurricane-strength storms, the figures increased to 11% and 8%.{{cite journal |last1=Reed |first1=Kevin A. |last2=Wehner |first2=Michael F. |last3=Zarzycki |first3=Colin M. |title=Attribution of 2020 hurricane season extreme rainfall to human-induced climate change |journal=Nature Communications |date=12 April 2022 |volume=13 |issue=1905 |page=1905 |doi=10.1038/s41467-022-29379-1 |pmid=35414063 |pmc=9005694 |bibcode=2022NatCo..13.1905R }}

• {{section link|Climate change mitigation|Drivers of global warming}}
• Climate justice
• Economics of climate change
• Effects of climate change

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• [https://climateattribution.org/ Climate Attribution]
• [https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/about/ World Weather Attribution]

Category:Climate change assessment and attribution

{{Climate change|state=expanded}}