George Modelski

George Modelski devised a cyclical theory of world leadership.George Modelski, Long Cycles in World Politics, University of Washington, 1987, p8 Each cycle is about 100 years' duration and a new hegemonic power appears each time.

Portugal 1492-1580; in the Age of Discovery

the Netherlands 1580-1688; beginning with the Eighty Years' War, 1579-1588

United Kingdom (1) 1688-1792; beginning with the wars of Louis XIV

United Kingdom (2) 1792-1914; beginning with the French Revolution and Napoleonic wars

the United States 1914 to (predicted) 2030; beginning with World War I and two.George Modelski, Long Cycles in World Politics, University of Washington, 1987, p40

1, Global War, which a) involves almost all global powers, b) is 'characteristically naval' George Modelski, Long Cycles in World Politics, University of Washington, 1987, p101 c) is caused by a system breakdown, d) is extremely lethal, e) results in a new global leader, capable of tackling global problems.George Modelski, Long Cycles in World Politics, University of Washington, 1987, p43-6 The war is a 'decision process' analogous to a national election.George Modelski, Long Cycles in World Politics, University of Washington, 1987, p36-7 The emerging global power typically enjoys a 'good war' with undamaged domestic infrastructure and a booming economy.Colin Flint, Introduction to geopolitics, Routledge, 2011, chapter 7 (appendix in later editions)

The Thirty Years War, though lasting and destructive, was not a 'global war' George Modelski, Long Cycles in World Politics, University of Washington, 1987, p45

2, World Power, which lasts for 'about one generation'.George Modelski, Long Cycles in World Politics, University of Washington, 1987, p157 The new incumbent power 'prioritises global problems', mobilises a coalition, is decisive and innovative.George Modelski, Long Cycles in World Politics, University of Washington, 1987, p14, 83, 93 For example, the UK after 1815 acted against the transatlantic slave trade and led the Congress system; the US after 1945 co-founded the UN, the IMF, GATT, and the Bretton Woods system.

Pre-modern communities become dependent on the hegemonic power George Modelski, Long Cycles in World Politics, University of Washington, 1987, chapter 8

3, Delegitimation. This phase can last for 20–27 years; the hegemonic power falters, as rival powers assert new nationalistic policies.George Modelski, Long Cycles in World Politics, University of Washington, 1987, p40, p119

4, Deconcentration. The hegemony's problem-solving capacity declines. It yields to a multipolar order of warring rivals. Pre-modern communities become less dependent.George Modelski, Long Cycles in World Politics, University of Washington, 1987, p119-20, p207

In the deconcentration phase a rival state or challenger, isolated and fearing encirclement George Modelski, Long Cycles in World Politics, University of Washington, 1987, p33

, appears. Spain challenged Portugal; Louis XIV and France challenged the Netherlands; Napoleon Bonaparte sought to bring down the UK; Germany under Kaiser Wilhelm II and Hitler brought an end to British hegemony for a second time. Writing in 1987, Modelski forecast that the USSR would challenge American power from 2030, in a new global war.

World leader nations tend to have: 'insular geography' and a strong naval power providing 'global reach'; a stable, open society; a strong economy; strategic organisation, and strong political parties. By contrast, the 'challenger' nations have: closed systems; absolute rulers; domestic instability; continental geographic locations; and weaker naval power.George Modelski, Long Cycles in World Politics, University of Washington, 1987, p90, p220-5, chapter 7

1, Modelski writes, 'a similar more modest process may have occurred in Italy from 1000-1500 which then grew from a regional to a world level'.George Modelski, Long Cycles in World Politics, University of Washington, 1987, p95 A similar regional cycle may have been present in China since 1,000, but ended with the death of Cheng Ho in 1435.William McNeil, The Pursuit of Power, OUP, 1983, p25

2, The cycle is driven by generational change. In the Global War phase of 25–30 years, world order under a hegemon is preferred but unavailable; in the World Power phase, order is both preferred and available; in the 3rd phase, Delegitimation, order is present but unpopular; in phase 4, Deconcentration, order is both unwanted and unavailable, leading to further disputes and a new global war.George Modelski, Long Cycles in World Politics, University of Washington, 1987, p62, 115; Colin Flint, Introduction to Geopolitics, Routledge, 2007, p202

According to Modelski, the cycle originated in about 1493 through a) the decline of Venetian naval power, b) Chinese abandonment of naval exploration, and c) discovery of sea routes to India and the Americas.George Modelski, Long Cycles in World Politics, University of Washington, 1987, p41-3, p95 It has developed in parallel with the growth of the nation-state, political parties, command of the sea, and 'dependency of pre-modern communities'.George Modelski, Long Cycles in World Politics, University of Washington, 1987, chapters 6, 7, 8; p153 The system is flawed, lacking in coherence or solidarity; it also fails to address the North-South divide.George Modelski, Long Cycles in World Politics, University of Washington, 1987, p201

Modelski wrote that the cycle is a 'learning process' and a 'motor of modernity', providing leadership on a global scale.George Modelski, Long Cycles in World Politics, University of Washington, 1987, p10, 47, chapter 5 The cycle ushers in new waves of innovation in orderly fashion. Awareness of the cycle provides a balanced perspective, and a counter to the widespread belief in global anarchy.George Modelski, Long Cycles in World Politics, University of Washington, 1987, p1

Modelski speculates that US deconcentration might be replaced by a power based in the 'Pacific rim' or by an explicit coalition of nations, as 'co-operation is urgently required in respect of nuclear weapons'.George Modelski, Long Cycles in World Politics, University of Washington, 1987, p41-3, p230-33 It is possible for the US to become world leader a second time, as Britain did in the 19th century.George Modelski, Long Cycles in World Politics, University of Washington, 1987, p229, 232

Modelski 'dismisses the idea that international relations are anarchic'. His research, influenced by Immanuel Wallerstein, was 'measured in decades... a major achievement' says Peter J. TaylorBook reviews : Modelski, G. 1987: Long cycles in world politics. London: Macmillan. 244 pp. £29.50 cloth - Peter J. Taylor, 1989 (sagepub.com)

Colin Flint saw several flaws in the argument. It is deterministic, incapable of prediction; 'Portugal's 16th century history does not determine the US's 21st century future.' Modelski took a state-centric view which focused on rich countries and ignored the Global South. Flint also questions whether naval power is still relevant in a time of cruise missiles, satellites and drones.Colin Flint, Introduction to geopolitics, Routledge, 2011, chapter 7 (relegated to an appendix in later editions)

Chinese leaders reject the idea of hegemony, and use the word as an insult.Goldstein and Pevehouse, International Relations, Longman 2007, p82

Joshua S Goldstein says however that long cycles are not mechanistic or deterministic, but 'evolutionary and dynamic' and therefore do have predictive power.https://www.joshuagoldstein.com/jgcyc14.pdf p349

• Globalization as Evolutionary Process: Modeling Global Change, 2008, co-editor, {{ISBN|978-0-415-77361-4}};
• World Cities -3000 to 2000, 2003, {{ISBN|0-9676230-1-4}};
• Leading Sectors and World Powers: The Coevolution of Global Economics and Politics with William R. Thompson, 1996, {{ISBN|1-57003-054-5}}
• World System History: The social science of long-term change, 2000, co-editor, {{ISBN|0-415-23276-7}};
• Documenting Global Leadership1988, co-editor, {{ISBN|0-333-46495-8}};
• Seapower in global politics, 1494-1993, 1988, with William R. Thompson, {{ISBN|0-333-42925-7}};
• Long Cycles in World Politics 1987 {{ISBN|0-295-96430-8}}; Japanese edition "Sekai shisutemu no dotai", 1991, {{ISBN|4-7710-0510-9}};
• Exploring Long Cycles, 1987, {{ISBN|0-931477-98-0}};
• North-South Relations, 1983, co-editor, {{ISBN|0-03-062822-9}};
• Transnational Corporations and World Order,1979, editor, {{ISBN|0-7167-1025-0}};
• Multinational Corporations and World Order, 1972, editor, {{ISBN|0-8039-0317-0}}
• Principles of world politics 1972, LOC card No. 70-163237;
• A theory of foreign policy 1962, LOC card no.62-12472
• SEATO: Six Studies, editor, 1962.

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• [http://www.slate.com/?id=2356 The committee: Francis Fukuyama, Neil Howe, George Modelski, Arthur Schlesinger Jr., and William Strauss. Moderated by Herbert Stein.] An article in Slate magazine.

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Category:1926 births

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Category:Alumni of the London School of Economics

Category:American political scientists

Category:N. D. Kondratieff Medal laureates

Category:People from Poznań

Category:Polish emigrants to the United States

Category:Theoretical historians

Category:University of Washington faculty