Intelligence source and information reliability
{{short description|Rating systems used in intelligence analysis}}
Intelligence source and information reliability rating systems are used in intelligence analysis. This rating is used for information collected by a human intelligence collector.{{Cite news|url=https://www.thebalance.com/human-intelligence-collector-35m-mos-job-description-3346154|title=What Does an Army Human Intelligence Collector Do?|work=The Balance|access-date=2017-09-10}}{{Dead link|date=March 2025}}{{Cite web|url=http://army.com/info/mos/human-intelligence-collector|title=Human Intelligence Collector {{!}} Army.com|website=army.com|language=en|access-date=2017-09-10}}{{Dead link|date=March 2025}} This type of information collection and job duty exists within many government agencies around the world.{{Cite web|url=https://www.mi5.gov.uk/covert-human-intelligence-sources|title=Covert Human Intelligence Sources {{!}} MI5 - The Security Service|website=www.mi5.gov.uk|language=en|access-date=2017-09-10}}{{Cite news|url=http://eipa.eu.com/2015/12/new-chief-of-mossad-israels-intelligence-agency-has-30-years-of-experience-in-operational-intelligence-and-executive-positions/|title=New chief of Mossad, Israel's intelligence agency, has 30 years of experience in operational, intelligence and executive positions|date=2015-12-16|work=EIPA|access-date=2017-09-10}}
According to Ewen Montagu, John Godfrey devised this system when he was director of the Naval Intelligence Division (N.I.D.) around the time of World War II.{{cite book|title=Beyond Top Secret U|author=Montagu, Ewen|date=1977|publisher=Peter Davies Ltd.|page=21}}
The system employed by the United States Armed Forces rates the reliability of the source as well as the information. The source reliability is rated between A (history of complete reliability) to E (history of invalid information), with F for source without sufficient history to establish reliability level. The information content is rated between 1 (confirmed) to 5 (improbable), with 6 for information whose reliability can not be evaluated.{{cite book|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=c6mp5QHkJ8YC|title=Human Intelligence Collector Operations |publisher=LLMC |id=Field Manual FM 2-22.3 |via=Google Books}}
For example, a confirmed information from a reliable source has rating A1, an unknown-validity information from a new source without reputation is rated F6, an inconsistent illogical information from a known liar is E5, a confirmed information from a moderately doubtful source is C1.
The evaluation matrix as described in the Field Manual FM 2-22.3 (see also Admiralty code):
Source reliability
| class="wikitable" |
| ! Rating
! Description |
|---|
| A
| Reliable | No doubt about the source's authenticity, trustworthiness, or competency. History of complete reliability. |
| B
| Usually reliable | Minor doubts. History of mostly valid information. |
| C
| Fairly reliable | Doubts. Provided valid information in the past. |
| D
| Not usually reliable | Significant doubts. Provided valid information in the past. |
| E
| Unreliable | Lacks authenticity, trustworthiness, and competency. History of invalid information. |
| F
| Reliability unknown | Insufficient information to evaluate reliability. May or may not be reliable. |
Information credibility
| class="wikitable" |
| ! Rating
! Description |
|---|
| 1
| Confirmed by independent Sources | Logical, consistent with other relevant information, confirmed by independent sources. |
| 2
| Probably true | Logical, consistent with other relevant information, not confirmed. |
| 3
| Possibly true | Reasonably logical, agrees with some relevant information, not confirmed. |
| 4
| Doubtfully True | Not logical but possible, no other information on the subject, not confirmed. |
| 5
| Improbable | Not logical, contradicted by other relevant information. |
| 6
| Difficult to say | The validity of the information can not be determined. |