Kansas experiment

File:Brownback for Governor Ae850be.jpg's 2009 campaign poster for the 2010 Kansas gubernatorial election]]

As a conservative Republican Senator from Kansas, Brownback had been reelected by large margins in 1998 and 2004, and had also run briefly for president in 2008, withdrawing before the primaries began.{{cite web |title=Election 2010: Kansas Governor – Rasmussen Reports |url=http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/kansas/election_2010_kansas_governor |publisher=Rasmussenreports.com |accessdate=August 23, 2010}}{{cite web |url=http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?parm1=183 |title=Election 2010 |publisher=CQ Politics |accessdate=August 23, 2010 |url-status=dead |archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20100825075820/http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?parm1=183 |archivedate=August 25, 2010 |df=mdy-all }}{{cite web |url=http://www.cookpolitical.com/charts/governors/raceratings_2010-02-04_10-04-22.php |title=The Cook Political Report – Charts – 2010 Governors Race Ratings |publisher=Cookpolitical.com |date=February 4, 2010 |accessdate=August 23, 2010 |url-status=dead |archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20101028142644/http://cookpolitical.com/charts/governors/raceratings_2010-02-04_10-04-22.php |archivedate=October 28, 2010 |df=mdy-all }} In 2010 he ran for governor, defeating his Democratic opponent Tom Holland 63.3% to 32.2%.{{cite web|title=Kansas|work=The New York Times|year=2010 |url=http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/results/kansas|accessdate=October 19, 2014}} Also winning a sweeping victory in 2010 in Kansas was the Tea Party movement of the Republican party, whose members largely shared Brownback's views and who made up most of the Republican majority in the 2010 Kansas House of Representatives—the largest majority in half a century.

When Brownback took office in January 2011, the US was still recovering from the Great Recession. In addition, there was a feeling in the state that economic growth in Kansas had been lagging behind other states in the region "for years," according to Kenneth Kriz, professor of public finance at Wichita State University. Conservatives believed a large tax cut would "boost investment, raise employment, and jump-start the economy", a theory sometimes described as supply-side economics or trickle-down economics.

Reducing taxes was one of Brownback's two major stated goals as governor (the other being to increase spending on education).{{cite news |author1=Chris Suellentrop|title=The Kansas Experiment|url=https://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/09/magazine/the-kansas-experiment.html |accessdate=August 6, 2015|work=The New York Times Magazine |date=August 6, 2015|quote=He is modest in demeanor, flat almost to the point of dullness.}} Some Kansans interviewed by a journalist and Burdett Loomis, a political scientist at the University of Kansas, speculated that Brownback hoped that, after his failed first attempt in 2008, the success of the tax cuts would help launch another campaign for the presidency.

File:Bill Self, KU.png men's basketball coach Bill Self, who remains one of the highest paid state employees in Kansas, infamously benefitted from the Brownback tax cuts, which resulted in Self paying little-to-no income taxes through Brownback's elimination of taxes on LLCs and "pass-through" businesses.{{Cite web |date=2016-05-17 |title=Thanks To Tax Cuts, Bill Self, Highest Paid State Employee, Owes Little In Kansas Income Taxes |url=https://www.kcur.org/education/2016-05-16/thanks-to-tax-cuts-bill-self-highest-paid-state-employee-owes-little-in-kansas-income-taxes |access-date=2024-03-03 |website=KCUR - Kansas City news and NPR}}]]

Kansas Senate Bill Substitute HB 2117, "one of the largest income tax cuts in Kansas history", was introduced in January 2011, approved by Brownback in May 2012, and became effective on July 1 of the same year. A key part of the bill was the elimination of taxes on "pass-through" income. This was income that businesses — such as sole proprietorships, partnerships, limited liability companies, and subchapter S corporations — pass on to their owners instead of paying corporate income tax on. Prior to HB 2117 in Kansas, these owners paid a 7% individual income tax on the income.

The bill cut the state's individual income tax rates and cut the number of individual income tax brackets from three to two. Specifically, the top income tax rates were cut from 6.45% and 6.25% to 4.9%, allowing higher earning taxpayers to pay the same marginal rate as the middle class; the bottom rate was reduced from 3.5% to 3%. Brownback planned to bring those rates down even more in future years. The original bill proposed by Brownback included a provision to offset the losses expected to result from the cuts by increasing the state sales tax, as well as eliminating numerous tax credits and deductions. These offsets were removed by the legislature in the final bill.{{cite web |url=http://www.nationalreview.com/article/434885/kansas-tax-cuts-wont-starve-government-beast |title=Starving the Beast in Kansas |work=National Review |date=May 3, 2016 |access-date=October 10, 2016 |last=Williamson|first= Kevin D.}}

As the bill was signed, predictions were made by supporters for an economic revival in Kansas, and by opponents for an unparalleled budget crisis.{{cite web |url=http://www.kansascity.com/latest-news/article303137/Brownback-signs-big-tax-cut-in-Kansas.html |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160524150850/http://www.kansascity.com/latest-news/article303137/Brownback-signs-big-tax-cut-in-Kansas.html |archive-date=2016-05-24 |title=Brownback signs big tax cut in Kansas |last1=Cooper |first1=Brad |date=May 23, 2012 |work=The Kansas City Star |access-date=December 26, 2021}} Brownback stated the plan would deliver a "shot of adrenaline" to the Kansas economy.{{cite news |last1=Brownback |first1=Sam |title=Gov. Sam Brownback: Tax cuts needed to grow economy |url=https://www.kansas.com/opinion/opn-columns-blogs/article1096336.html |accessdate=24 November 2018 |agency=Wichita Eagle |date=29 July 2012}} His administration projected the creation of 23,000 jobs a year in Kansas in addition to those created by natural economic growth.{{cite web |url=https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-03-29/kansas-tried-tax-cuts-its-neighbor-didn-t-guess-which-worked |title=Kansas Tried Tax Cuts. Its Neighbor Didn't. Guess Which Worked. |work=Bloomberg View |date=March 29, 2016 |accessdate=October 10, 2016 |author=Fox, Justin}}

After signing the bill, Brownback argued that the cuts would pay for themselves through the increased revenue resulting from boosting the state's economic growth. Supporters pointed to projections from the conservative Kansas Policy Institute predicting that the bill would lead to a {{US$}}323 million increase in tax revenue. Less supportive was a forecast from the Legislature's research staff indicating that a budget shortfall would emerge by 2014 and grow to nearly {{USD}}2.5 billion by July 2018. In June 2012, Brownback stated on MSNBC show Morning Joe, "On taxes, you need to get your overall rates down, and you need to get your social manipulation out of it, in my estimation, to create growth. We'll see how it works. We'll have a real live experiment."{{cite web|url=http://www2.ljworld.com/news/2012/jun/19/brownback-gets-heat-real-live-experiment-comment-t/|title=Brownback gets heat for 'real live experiment' comment on tax cuts|publisher=Lawrence Journal World|accessdate=October 28, 2014}}{{cite news |title=Brownback gets heat for 'real live experiment' comment on tax cuts |url=http://www2.ljworld.com/news/2012/jun/19/brownback-gets-heat-real-live-experiment-comment-t/ |date=19 June 2012 |accessdate=20 November 2018 |agency=Lawrence Journal-World}} He also called it a "red-state experiment".{{cite news |last1=Mclean |first1=Jim|title=Trump's Tax Plan Has Echoes Of The Kansas Tax Cut Experiment |url=https://www.npr.org/2017/09/30/554506190/trump-s-tax-plan-has-echoes-of-the-kansas-tax-cut-experiment|accessdate=October 4, 2017|publisher=NPR|date=September 30, 2017}}

File:Sam Brownback, CPAC 2015 headshot.jpg in 2015]]

In the spring of 2014, monthly revenue for state government "crashed", and fell "massively short of projections". The Washington Post and Michael Hiltzik, a reporter for the Los Angeles Times,{{cite web |last1=Hiltzik |first1=Michael|title=How Tea Party tax cuts are turning Kansas into a smoking ruin|url=http://www.latimes.com/business/hiltzik/la-fi-mh-kansas-a-smoking-ruin-20140709-column.html|work=Los Angeles Times|accessdate=October 27, 2014|date=July 9, 2014}} warned that job creation and economic growth in Kansas were lagging those of its neighboring states.{{cite news|author1=Editorial Board |title=Sam Brownback's failed 'experiment' puts state on path to penury|url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/sam-brownbacks-failed-experiment-puts-state-on-path-to-penury/2014/09/21/ded58846-3eb2-11e4-9587-5dafd96295f0_story.html|newspaper=The Washington Post|accessdate=October 28, 2014|date=September 21, 2014}}{{#tag:ref|Some slightly later statistics were not encouraging. In 2015, "10,900 total nonfarm jobs" were added to the Kansas economy, for a job growth rate of 0.8 percent, among the lowest rate in the country that year.{{cite web |url=https://www.bls.gov/web/laus/statewide_otm_oty_change.htm |title=Change in total nonfarm employment by state, over-the-month and over-the-year, seasonally adjusted |publisher=Bls.gov |accessdate=February 26, 2017}}{{citation |url=http://www.kansascity.com/opinion/opn-columns-blogs/yael-t-abouhalkah/article47176275.html |author=Yael T. Abouhalkah |title=Kansas has low but misleading unemployment rate under Gov. Sam Brownback |date=November 30, 2015 |accessdate=February 26, 2017}} From January 2013 to 2015, private sector jobs in Kansas grew by 3.5%, less than half of the national rate of 7.6%.{{cite web |url=http://www.cbpp.org/research/federal-tax/kansas-tax-cut-experience-refutes-economic-growth-predictions-of-trump-tax |title=Kansas' Tax Cut Experience Refutes Economic Growth Predictions of Trump Tax Advisors |work=Center on Budget and Policy Priorities |date=August 12, 2016 |accessdate=October 10, 2016 |author=Mazerov, Michael}} |group=Note}} Nonetheless, many conservative sources were enthusiastic. The Wall Street Journal published an op-ed by Brownback where he called his experiment "A Midwest Renaissance Rooted in the Reagan Formula", compared his tax cut policies with those of Ronald Reagan, and announced a "prosperous future" for Republican-dominated Kansas, Oklahoma, and Missouri.

Brownback's tax consultant Arthur Laffer, a supply-side economist who predicted the cuts would support job growth,{{cite news |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/29/upshot/kansas-tax-cut-leaves-brownback-with-less-money.html |title=Yes, if You Cut Taxes, You Get Less Tax Revenue |author=Josh Barro |date=June 27, 2014 |work=The New York Times |accessdate=September 2, 2014}} calling Brownback's policies "amazing ... Truly revolutionary."{{cite news |last1=Gowen |first1=Annie |title=In Kansas, Gov. Sam Brownback puts tea party tenets into action with sharp cuts |url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/in-kansas-gov-sam-brownback-puts-tea-party-tenets-into-action-with-sharp-cuts/2011/11/02/gIQAkbnOAP_story.html?noredirect=on |accessdate=25 November 2018 |newspaper=The Washington Post |date=21 December 2011}} Influential anti-tax activist Grover Norquist defended Brownback's tax cuts as "the right thing for the economy", and claimed that Kansas was in better economic shape than the tax-cut critics alleged, and that the state had "provided a model, a successful model, that will phase out the income tax."{{cite web|title=Norquist defends tax cuts despite Brownback woes in Kansas|url=https://thehill.com/policy/finance/218449-norquist-defends-tax-cuts-despite-brownback-woes/|work=The Hill|date=September 21, 2014|access-date=October 29, 2014}}

By early 2017, Kansas had "nine rounds of budget cuts over four years, three credit downgrades, missed state payments", and what The Atlantic called "an ongoing atmosphere of fiscal crisis". To make up the budget shortfall, lawmakers tapped into state reserves set aside for future spending, postponed construction projects and pension contributions, and cut Medicaid benefits. Since approximately half of the state's budget went to school funding, education was particularly hard hit. In addition to budget problems, Kansas was lagging behind neighboring states with similar economies in "nearly every major category: job creation, unemployment, gross domestic product, taxes collected".{{cite news |last1=Ritholtz |first1=Barry |title=Commentary: Why Sam Brownback's tax cuts failed to make Kansas thrive |url=https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/opinion/commentary/ct-kansas-sam-brownback-tax-cuts-20170321-story.html |accessdate=24 November 2018 |agency=Chicago Tribune |date=17 March 2017}}

File:Wyandotte High School front.jpg, which saw drastic budget cuts. Wyandotte High School in Wyandotte County, Kansas (pictured) was among the public schools hit hardest by Brownback's tax cuts.{{Cite web |date=2017-12-07 |title=Do tax cuts spur growth? What we can learn from the Kansas budget crisis |url=https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/do-tax-cuts-spur-growth-what-we-can-learn-from-the-kansas-budget-crisis |access-date=2024-03-03 |website=PBS NewsHour |language=en-us}}]]

By 2017, National Public Radio reported state lawmakers were seeking to close a $900 million budget gap,{{#tag:ref|Other reports were that Kansas had a $350 million budget shortfall in February 2017.{{citation |url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/02/22/republicans-real-live-experiment-with-kansass-economy-survives-a-revolt-from-their-own-party/ |title=Republicans' 'real-live experiment' with Kansas's economy survives a revolt from their own party |newspaper=The Washington Post|author=Max Ehrenfreund|date=February 22, 2017 |accessdate=February 25, 2017}} or had the state’s "budget deficit was expected to hit $280 million" in 2017". For the previous fiscal year (2016), the state's tax revenue was $420 million below the amount raised the year the tax cuts first took effect.{{cite web |url=https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2016/05/sam-brownback-kansas-tax-cuts-trickle-down |title=Trickle-Down Economics Has Ruined the Kansas Economy |work=Mother Jones |date=May 4, 2016 |accessdate=October 10, 2016 |author=Caldwell, Patrick}} |group=Note}} following nine previous budget cuts.{{cite news |last1=Goodwyn |first1=Wade |title=Kansas' 2012 Tax Cut Experiment Could Serve As A Cautionary Tale |url=https://www.npr.org/2017/12/13/570387479/kansas-2012-tax-cut-experiment-could-serve-as-a-cautionary-tale |accessdate=22 November 2018 |agency=NPR |date=December 13, 2017}} Earlier efforts to close budget gaps had left Kansas "well below national averages" in a wide range of public services from K-12 education to housing to police and fire protection. In education, school districts dealt with cuts by shutting down the school year early,{{cite news |url=http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/kansas-school-districts-close-early-after-tax-cut-experiment |title= Kansas school districts to close early after tax cut 'experiment' |last1=Lee |first1=Trymaine |date=April 4, 2015 |publisher=MSNBC |accessdate=April 5, 2015}} eliminating school programs, cutting maintenance, phasing out teaching positions, enlarging class sizes, increasing fees for kindergarten, and cutting janitorial personnel and librarians.{{cite magazine|last1=Judis|first1=John|title=This Is What's the Matter With Kansas |magazine=The New Republic|date=September 30, 2014|url=https://newrepublic.com/article/119574/sam-brownbacks-conservative-utopia-kansas-has-become-hell|accessdate=October 28, 2014}} School districts were consolidated and some schools were closed.

By early 2017, The Wichita Eagle reported that the governor proposed taking nearly $600 million from the highway fund over the next two and a half years to balance the state general budget, after having used {{US$}}1.3 billion from the fund since 2011 for the same purpose.{{cite news |last1=Lowry |first1=Bryan |last2=Lefler |first2=Dion |title=Brownback's plan to sweep more highway money faces pushback |url=https://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/article126644799.html |accessdate=29 November 2018 |agency=Wichita Eagle |date=15 January 2017}} This first transfer of funds had already caused the Kansas Department of Transportation to "indefinitely delay" two dozen road expansion projects in April 2016. According to Kansas State Senator Carolyn McGinn, "we've had pretty good roads, but now we're starting to see the deterioration." Millions were also borrowed from the state pension fund.{{cite news |last1=McLean |first1=Jim |title=Kansas Lt. Gov. Will Take Over As Brownback Leaves For Ambassadorship |url=https://www.npr.org/2018/01/25/580577126/kansas-lt-gov-will-takeover-as-brownback-leaves-for-ambassadorship |accessdate=25 November 2018 |agency=NPR |date=25 January 2018}} Kansas became the only state without a state-funded arts commission, and closed nine social service offices around the state.

The tax cuts contributed to credit rating downgrades, which raised borrowing costs and led to more budget cuts in education and infrastructure. Moody's downgraded the state's bond rating in 2014.{{cite news |last1=Kraske|first1=Steve|title=Gov. Sam Brownback suffers a political brownout|url=http://www.kansascity.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/article348571/Gov.-Sam-Brownback-suffers-a-political-brownout.html|accessdate=June 13, 2014|publisher=The Kansas City Star|date=May 2, 2014}} S&P downgraded its credit rating first from AA+ to AA in August 2014, due to a budget that analysts described as structurally unbalanced,{{cite news|title=S&P downgrades Kansas in another blow to Brownback tax cuts|url=https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-kansas-ratings-idUSL2N0QC1MO20140806 |website=Reuters.com|date=August 6, 2014|agency=Reuters|accessdate=August 7, 2014}} and again in February 2017 from AA to AA−.{{citation |title=Kansas Lawmakers Uphold Governor's Veto of Tax Increases |author=Alan Blinder |url=https://nyti.ms/2lwNatr|newspaper=The New York Times|date=February 22, 2017 |accessdate=February 25, 2017}}

By 2018 overall growth and job creation in Kansas had underperformed the national economy, neighboring states, and "even Kansas’ own growth in previous years."{{#tag:ref|From March 2015 to March 2016, Kansas gained 800 private-sector jobs, an increase of 0.1 percent.{{cite web |url=http://www.cbsnews.com/news/kansas-loses-patience-governor-sam-brownback-tax-cuts/ |title=Kansas loses patience with Gov. Brownback's tax cuts |work=CBS News |date=April 19, 2016 |accessdate=October 10, 2016 |agency=Associated Press}} |group=Note}} Kansas' job growth lagged behind neighboring Missouri, Colorado,{{cite web |url=http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/03/gop-must-answer-for-what-it-did-to-kansas.html |title=The Republican Party Must Answer for What It Did to Kansas and Louisiana |work=New York Magazine |date=March 18, 2016 |accessdate=October 10, 2016 |author=Levitz, Eric}} and Nebraska. In January 2014, following the passing of both tax cuts, to April 2017 the Nebraska labor force grew by a net 35,000 non-farm jobs, compared to only 28,000 for Kansas, which has a larger labor force. {{#tag:ref|Instead of the 100,000 new jobs Brownback had promised would be created in the four years of his second term, as of January 2016 (slightly more than a year into this term), 700 were added during this term. |group=Note}}

In 2014, Brownback ran for reelection, challenged by Paul Davis, the Democratic minority leader of the Kansas House of Representatives.{{cite web|url=http://www.kansascity.com/2013/09/17/4487708/democrat-davis-enters-kan-governor.html |title=Democrat Paul Davis enters Kansas governor race|publisher=|accessdate=January 24, 2018}} Davis was endorsed by over 100 former and current Kansas Republican officials who criticized Brownback's leadership.[http://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/article1148593.html "Paul Davis secures endorsement of more than 100 former and current Republican officials,"] July 15, 2014, Wichita Eagle[https://www.wsj.com/articles/some-in-kansas-gop-break-with-gov-brownback-endorse-democratic-opponent-1405441534 "Some in Kansas GOP Break With Gov. Brownback, Endorse Democratic Opponent,"] July 15, 2014, Wall Street Journal{{cite news |work= The New York Times |title= Conservative Experiment Faces Revolt in Reliably Red Kansas |date= September 14, 2014 |accessdate= September 15, 2014 |url= https://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/15/us/conservative-experiment-faces-revolt-in-reliably-red-kansas.html |first= John |last= Eligon}} Brownback managed to defeat Davis by 3.69 percent,{{cite web |url=http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/governor/ks/kansas_governor_brownback_vs_davis-4146.html |title=Election 2014 – Kansas Governor – Brownback vs. Davis |publisher=RealClearPolitics |accessdate=April 9, 2015}}[http://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/election/article3565951.html Sam Brownback prevails over Paul Davis for second term as Kansas governor], Wichita Eagle, Byron Lowry & Suzanne Perez Tobias, November 4, 2017. Retrieved March 13, 2017.{{cite web|title=Kansas Secretary of State 2014 General Election Official Vote Totals |url=http://www.kssos.org/elections/14elec/2014%20General%20Election%20Official%20Results.pdf|accessdate=March 13, 2017}} a decline from the more than 30% margin he had gained in his first governor's race victory, thanks at least in part to effective campaign ads attacking Davis for his brief detention during a 1998 police raid of a strip club.[http://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/article2250432.html Strip-club smear campaign orchestrated by Sam Brownback official, says Paul Davis], Wichita Eagle, Dion Lefler, September 20, 2014. Retrieved March 15, 2017.[http://www.politico.com/story/2014/09/kansas-gubernatorial-candidate-paul-davis-strip-club-111165 Three reasons the Paul Davis strip club story could hurt him in Kansas] Politico, Sean Sullivan, September 22, 2014. Retrieved March 15, 2017.

Brownback's popularity continued to suffer in Kansas after his re-election as governor. Three separate polls between November 2015 and September 2016 ranked Brownback as the nation's least-popular governor,[http://www.bizjournals.com/kansascity/blog/morning_call/2015/11/sam-brownback-most-unpopular-usa-goveror.html "Most unpopular governor in America? Brownback wins in landslide,"] November 24, 2015, Kansas City Business Journal[http://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/article77258832.html "Poll: Brownback remains least popular governor in the nation,"] May 12, 2016, Wichita Eagle[http://cjonline.com/news-state-government-local-state/2016-09-20/new-poll-ranks-gov-sam-brownback-nations-least-popular "New poll ranks Gov. Sam Brownback as nation's least popular governor,"] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170316025140/http://cjonline.com/news-state-government-local-state/2016-09-20/new-poll-ranks-gov-sam-brownback-nations-least-popular |date=March 16, 2017 }} September 20, 2016, Topeka Capital-Journal the September 2016 poll showing an approval rating of 23%.[https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/03/sam-brownback-might-not-be-governing-kansas-much-longer/519165/ Sam Brownback Might Not Be Governing Kansas Much Longer], The Atlantic (AP), Russell Berman, March 10, 2017. Retrieved March 13, 2017.[http://cjonline.com/news-state-government-local-state/2016-09-20/new-poll-ranks-gov-sam-brownback-nations-least-popular New poll ranks Governor Sam Brownback as nation's least popular] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170316025140/http://cjonline.com/news-state-government-local-state/2016-09-20/new-poll-ranks-gov-sam-brownback-nations-least-popular |date=March 16, 2017 }}, Capital Journal, Tim Carpenter, September 20, 2016. Retrieved March 15, 2017. Two years later "a wave of moderate Republicans" opposed to the tax cuts replaced many of the conservative supporters of the experiment in the state legislature. The election was considered largely a referendum on Brownback's policies and administration.[https://www.wsj.com/articles/conservative-lawmakers-ousted-in-kansas-election-1470226094 "Conservative Lawmakers Ousted in Kansas Primary Election: GOP races seen as referendum on Gov. Sam Brownback’s tax-cut policy,"] August 3, 2016, Wall Street JournalFlentje, Ed, Prof. of Public Administration (Wichita State University), former Kansas Secretary of Administration to Republican Governor Mike Hayden, [http://www.kansas.com/opinion/opn-columns-blogs/article114270433.html "Kansas voters rebuke Brownback, tax plan,"] November 12, 2016, Wichita Eagle

File:Seal of the Supreme Court of Kansas.jpg unanimously ruled that Brownback's deliberate underfunding of public schools caused by tax cuts and revenue drops was unconstitutional.{{Cite news |last1=Smith |first1=Mitch |last2=Bosman |first2=Julie |date=2017-03-02 |title=Kansas Supreme Court Says State Education Spending Is Too Low |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/02/us/kansas-supreme-court-school-spending.html |access-date=2024-03-03 |work=The New York Times |language=en-US |issn=0362-4331}}]]

By 2017, after a protracted battle, the new Kansas Legislature voted to repeal Brownback's tax cuts and enact tax increases,[http://cjonline.com/news/state-government/2017-06-08/kansas-economic-outlook-shifting-reversal-brownback-tax-policy "Kansas' economic outlook shifting with reversal of Brownback tax policy,"] June 11, 2017, Topeka Capital-Journal overriding Brownback's veto of them.[http://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/article154684809.html "Kansas lawmakers override Brownback veto of tax increases."] June 6, 2017, Wichita Eagle[http://cjonline.com/news/state-government/2017-06-06/senate-house-narrowly-override-gov-sam-brownback-s-veto-12-billion "Senate, House narrowly override Gov Sam Brownback's veto of $1.2 billion tax bill,"] June 6, 2017, Topeka Capital-Journal, (also at [http://eedition.cjonline.com/news/state-government/2017-06-06/senate-narrowly-overrides-gov-brownback-s-veto-12-billion-tax-bill CJ's E-edition]{{Dead link|date=August 2018 |bot=InternetArchiveBot |fix-attempted=yes }})[http://www.kwch.com/content/news/Bill-raising-taxes-delivered-to-Kansas-governor-426826281.html "Lawmakers override governor veto on tax bill."] June 6, 2017, KWCH-TV Eyewitness News By April 2017, 66% of Kansans told pollsters they disapproved of Brownback's job performance, with 27% still approving.{{cite web |last1=Easley |first1=Cameron |title=Chris Christie Is Now America's Most Unpopular Governor |url=https://morningconsult.com/governor-rankings-april-2017/ |website=Morning consult |accessdate=20 November 2018 |date=11 April 2017}} After "years of dealing with budget" shortfalls by borrowing, "quick fixes" and consumption tax hikes on tobacco, fuel, and other consumer goods, the Kansas legislature was left with "few remaining options" other than steep and broad tax hikes or more spending cuts. Brownback's 2012 tax cuts were described as threatening "the viability of schools and infrastructure" in Kansas. The Kansas Supreme Court had ordered the state legislature "to increase funding for public schools by {{US$}}293 million over the next two years".

A repeal of the tax cut was attempted in February 2017 by a coalition of Democrats and newly elected centrist Republicans, who passed legislation (Senate Bill number 30 or SB 30) to raise income-tax rates and eliminate an exemption for small businesses. SB 30 repealed most of the tax cuts implemented by HB 2117. It called for:

• Raising individual income taxes.
• Repealing the pass-through income exemption.
• Reenacting the itemized deductions for mortgage interest, property taxes paid, and medical expenses.
• Reenacting a child care tax credit.
• Reducing the low-income exclusion level.{{cite web|url=http://www.kslegislature.org/li/b2017_18/measures/documents/sb30_00_0000.pdf|title=Senate Bill No. 30 By Committee on Assessment and Taxation}}

The Senate passed bill SB 30 (38–0 with 2 not voting) on February 2, 2017.{{cite web|title=Bills and Resolutions – Kansas State Legislature SB30 Final Action – Passed|url=http://www.kslegislature.org/li/b2017_18/measures/vote_view/je_20170202151108_929405/}} Three weeks later, the House passed SB 30, as amended (123–2).{{cite web|title=Bills and Resolutions – Kansas State Legislature SB30 Final Action – Passed|url=http://www.kslegislature.org/li/b2017_18/measures/vote_view/je_20170222103940_182851/}} Shortly after Brownback vetoed this first attempt, the legislature attempted to override his veto but came up three votes short in the Kansas Senate. Several months later on June 5, 2017, the Conference Committee Report was adopted by both the Kansas House (69–52) and Senate (26–14). On June 6, 2017, the bill was sent to Brownback, who once again, vetoed the bill. The same day two-thirds majorities in both the House and Senate overrode his veto and SB 30 became law.{{cite web|title=SB 30 – Bills and Resolutions – Kansas State Legislature|url=http://www.kslegislature.org/li/b2017_18/measures/sb30/}} The measure would boost state taxes by $1.2 billion over two years, in part by raising the top income tax rate from 4.6% to 5.7%, and by restoring the pass-through business tax.

Brownback did not serve out his full second term as governor. Shortly after the repeal, he resigned and was appointed U.S. Ambassador-at-Large for International Religious Freedom. He was confirmed in January 2018.{{cite news |last1=Smith |first1=Mitch |last2=Fortin |first2=Jacey |date=July 26, 2017 |title=Gov. Sam Brownback of Kansas Will Be Nominated as Religious Ambassador |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/26/us/politics/sam-brownback-kansas-ambassador-international-religious-freedom.html?ribbon-ad-idx=4&rref=us&module=Ribbon&version=context®ion=Header&action=click&contentCollection=U.S.&pgtype=article |work=New York Times |location=New York City |access-date=July 27, 2017}}{{cite news|url=https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/370556-pence-ends-filibuster-on-brownback-nomination/|title=Pence ends filibuster on Brownback nomination|first=Brandon|last=Conradis|date=January 24, 2018|newspaper=TheHill|access-date=January 25, 2018}} In the 2018 Kansas gubernatorial election, the Republican candidate, conservative Kris Kobach, promised to "try to roll back the tax hikes" of the 2017 legislative session, and urged a return to "a more low-tax structure like we had from 2013 to 2016" during the Brownback administration. He told voters that "Kansas doesn't have a revenue problem. Kansas has a spending problem." Kobach was defeated by Democrat Laura Kelly, who became governor.{{Cite web |date=2019-07-29 |title=The Long Road to Recovery After Years of Severe Budget Cuts |url=https://www.governing.com/archive/gov-kansas-governor.html |access-date=2024-04-15 |website=Governing}}

Despite its record and the fact that "many experts regard the Kansas tax cuts as a failure", the 2017 Republican tax cuts (Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017) had some of the same elements of Brownback's policy, and "many Republicans still embrace the ideology" behind the Kansas tax cuts. Several commentators compared the Kansas experiment to the 2017 federal tax cuts, which were debated during and after the repeal of the Kansas cuts. The Kansas tax cuts were described as a "warning sign",{{cite web |last1=Thornton and |first1=Alexandra |last2=Hendricks |first2=Galen |title=Kansas 'Real Live Experiment' in Trickle-Down Tax Cuts |date=November 2, 2017 |url=https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/economy/reports/2017/11/02/441822/kansas-real-live-experiment-trickle-tax-cuts/ |accessdate=22 November 2018}} "the kind of fiscal policy the Trump administration wants to enact nationally", a policy that the Trump tax cuts "echo", a "template" for tax cuts that "crashed and burned", and as a policy whose repeal "lays bare the ... risks for Republicans in Washington pursuing a similar policy at the national level."{{cite news |last1=Ehrenfreund |first1=Max |title=Wonkblog. Kansas Republicans raise taxes, ending their GOP governor's 'real live experiment' in conservative policy |url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/06/07/kansas-republicans-raise-taxes-rebuking-their-gop-governors-real-live-experiment-in-conservative-policy/ |accessdate=22 November 2018 |newspaper=The Washington Post |date=7 June 2017}}

Kansas Republicans commented on the relationship between the two cuts. State Representative Stephanie Clayton asserted that "the real example" the Kansas experiment provides to the rest of the country is that "the voters will get angry with you, and it doesn't matter how solid-red your state is." State Senator Jim Denning warned: "It was supposed to increase the GDP, and it didn't. The feds will have that same problem."{{cite journal |last1=Berman |first1=Russell |title=You Better Learn Our Lesson |journal=The Atlantic |date=11 October 2017 |url=https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/10/tax-trump-kansas/542532/ |accessdate=29 November 2018}} This was a sentiment repeated by William G. Gale of the Brookings Institution, who stated that one of the most important implications of the Kansas experiment for federal tax reform is "not to expect tax cuts to boost the economy much, if at all".

The act received criticism for shifting the tax burden from wealthy Kansans to low- and moderate-income workers.{{cite news |last1=Peters |first1=Mark |title=Sam Brownback's Tax-Cut Push Puts Kansas Out on Its Own |url=https://www.wsj.com/articles/sam-brownbacks-tax-cut-push-puts-kansas-out-on-its-own-1402448126 |publisher=Wall Street Journal |date=June 10, 2014 |archiveurl=https://archive.today/20140615174112/http://online.wsj.com/articles/sam-brownbacks-tax-cut-push-puts-kansas-out-on-its-own-1402448126 |archivedate=June 15, 2014 |url-status=dead |accessdate=October 26, 2017 |df=mdy-all }}{{cite news |url=http://www2.ljworld.com/news/2012/may/27/kansas-tax-act-most-regressive-nation/ |date=May 24, 2012 |title=Kansas tax act most regressive in nation |work=The Lawrence Journal-World}} According to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, the bill cut the taxes of "the wealthiest 1% of Kansans by 2.2%", while it projected that the poorest 20% of Kansans would see "their taxes increase by 1.3%".{{cite web|author1=Michael Leachman|author2=Chris Mai|title=Lessons for Other States from Kansas' Massive Tax Cuts |url=http://www.cbpp.org/files/3-27-14sfp.pdf |accessdate=October 27, 2014|date=March 27, 2014}} Bryan Lowry of The Wichita Eagle estimated that almost 70% of Kansas lawmakers, as well as Governor Brownback and his wife, benefited personally from the tax cuts through business or property that they owned, which being non-wage income, was exempt from taxes under the 2012 law.{{cite web |url=http://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/article106774962.html |title=Do Kansas lawmakers personally benefit from business-tax cuts? |work=The Wichita Eagle |date=October 7, 2016 |accessdate=October 10, 2016 |author=Lowry, Bryan}}

According to critical observers, part of the reason for the large revenue loss was that the new 0% tax rate on pass-through business income was "exploited" and had "become a loophole" for taxpayers. Instead of 200,000 small businesses taking advantage of it, about 330,000 entities used the rule; among them were large limited liability law firms and oil exploration companies. These companies included a large number of subsidiaries of the Wichita-based Koch Industries, a very large firm whose owners, the Koch brothers, strongly supported the tax cuts and contributed to the political campaigns of Brownback and other tax cut supporters.{{cite news |last1=Lefler |first1=Dion |title=Koch, Kansas Chamber and Brownback lead last-minute election spends |url=https://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/election/article92680027.html |accessdate=29 November 2018 |agency=Wichita Eagle |date=29 July 2016}}{{cite news |last1=Zeff |first1=Sam |last2=Jeffries |first2=Amy |title=Elections Question: How Are The Kochs Influencing Campaigns In Kansas This Year? |url=https://www.kcur.org/post/elections-question-how-are-kochs-influencing-campaigns-kansas-year#stream/0 |accessdate=29 November 2018 |agency=KCUR |date=20 October 2016}} Another source of exploitation is thought to be "tens of thousands" of workers who previously paid individual income tax but re-titled themselves as "independent contractors", claiming their remuneration was actually business income and now tax-free.

According to Max Ehrenfreund and economists he consulted, an explanation for the reduction instead of increase in economic growth from the tax cuts is that any benefits from tax cuts come over the long, not short run, but what does come in the short run is a major decline in demand for goods and services. In the Kansas economy, cuts in state government expenditures cut incomes of state government "employees, suppliers, and contractors" who spent much or most of their incomes locally. In addition, concern over the state's large budget deficits "might have deterred businesses from making major new investments".

An economic study published in 2018 found that the Kansas experiment did not stimulate economic growth, and if anything it harmed Kansas' economic performance.{{cite news |last1=Ehrenfreund |first1=Max |title=Wonkblog. Kansas's conservative experiment may have gone worse than people thought |url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/06/15/kansas-conservative-experiment-may-have-gone-worse-than-people-thought/ |accessdate=22 November 2018 |newspaper=The Washington Post |date=15 June 2017}}{{cite journal |last1=Rickman, Dan S. |first1=Dan S. |last2=Wang |first2=Hongbo |title=Two Tales of Two U.S. States: Regional Fiscal Austerity and Economic Performance |url=https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/79615/1/MPRA_paper_79615.pdf |journal=Regional Science and Urban Economics|volume=68|date=January 2018|pages=46–55|doi=10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2017.10.008 }} Applying multiple tests, including the synthetic control method within a difference in differences framework, the study found that the reduction in state and local government expenditures resulted in negative economic multiplier effects and increased economic uncertainty. Comparing Kansas to other, similar states, the study authors estimate that the Kansas economy grew about 7.82% less (real gross state product), and employment grew about 2.55% less, than it would have had Brownback not cut taxes.

The experiment has been described as a "failure", or having "failed",{{cite news |last1=Linden |first1=Michael |title=Kansas' experiment with tax cutting failed spectacularly{{snd}}on its own terms |url=https://www.businessinsider.com/kansas-experiment-with-tax-cutting-failed-on-its-own-terms-2017-6 |access-date=30 November 2018 |work=Business Insider |date=14 June 2017}}{{cite web |title=The Tax Experiment That Failed |url=https://www.theatlantic.com/video/index/558143/kansas-tax-cuts/ |website=The Atlantic |access-date=30 November 2018 |date=17 April 2018}}{{cite news |last1=Boushey |first1=Heather |author1-link=Heather Boushey |title=Failed tax-cut experiment in Kansas should guide national leaders |url=https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/418768-kansas-voters-render-final-verdict-on-failed-tax-cut-experiment/ |access-date=30 November 2018 |work=The Hill}} by many observers. Governor Brownback rejected criticism of his cuts or needs to adjust the law,{{cite news |last1=Lowry |first1=Bryan |last2=Wise |first2=Lindsay |last3=Woodall |first3=Hunter |last4=Shorman |first4=Jonathan |title=Brownback, confirmed in dramatic D.C. vote, leaves legacy of controversy in Kansas |url=https://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article196503289.html |access-date=29 November 2018 |work=The Kansas City Star |date=24 January 2018}} declaring the cuts a success, and blaming perceptions to the contrary on a "rural recession" and on "the left media", which he said "lies about the tax cuts all the time". Other explanations for the repeal were provided by conservative media and organizations. A Wall Street Journal opinion piece called the repeal the work in part of "unions getting even with the Governor over his education reforms, which included making it easier to fire bad teachers".{{cite web |title=Tax Revenge in Kansas |url=https://www.wsj.com/articles/tax-revenge-in-kansas-1497050494 |website=Wall Street Journal |archive-url=https://archive.today/20170610043117/https://www.wsj.com/articles/tax-revenge-in-kansas-1497050494 |archive-date=2017-06-10 |access-date=23 October 2020 |url-status=unfit}} It also defended the tax cuts by citing a low unemployment rate, which was 3.7% as of June 2017, and "considerable small-business formation" in Kansas. It called the complete elimination of "pass-through" taxes a mistake that resulted in less revenue than projected because it created a loophole whereby consultants, as well as law practices and accounting firms could avoid taxes.

Reason, an American libertarian magazine, blamed problems with the experiment on the failure to cut government spending up front, and the failure to eliminate "politically popular" tax exemptions and deductions.{{cite web |last1=Haller |first1=Ben |title=Kansas' Tax Cut Experiment Was A Predictable Failure |url=https://reason.com/2017/06/19/kansas-tax-cut-experiment-a-predictable/ |website=Reason|date=June 19, 2017 |access-date=23 October 2020}} For the Cato Institute, Daniel J. Mitchell wrote on how the experiment revealed that "many Republicans" are actually "pro-tax big spenders" but said a "long-run" victory for the experiment since the post-repeal tax rates will still be "significantly lower" than before the Brownback experiment. It agreed that Republicans should not claim that "tax cuts pay for themselves".{{cite web |last1=Mitchell |first1=Daniel J. |title=Three Lessons from the Tax Defeat in Kansas |url=https://www.cato.org/blog/three-lessons-tax-defeat-kansas |website=Cato Institute |access-date=24 November 2018}} The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities dismissed conservative explanations for what Michael Mazerov described as the "failure of 'supply-side' tax cuts, writing: "Former supporters have offered explanations for this failure to prevent the Kansas experience from discrediting 'supply-side' economic strategies more broadly. But the evidence does not support these explanations. Rather, the Kansas experience adds to the already compelling evidence that cutting taxes does not improve state economic performance."{{Cite web |title=Kansas Provides Compelling Evidence of Failure of 'Supply-Side' Tax Cuts |url=https://www.cbpp.org/research/state-budget-and-tax/kansas-provides-compelling-evidence-of-failure-of-supply-side-tax |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220808053334/https://www.cbpp.org/research/state-budget-and-tax/kansas-provides-compelling-evidence-of-failure-of-supply-side-tax |archive-date=2022-08-08 |access-date=2022-10-24 |website=Center on Budget and Policy Priorities |date=January 22, 2018 }}

• Laffer curve
• Neoliberalism
• Reaganomics
• September 2022 United Kingdom mini-budget

{{reflist|group=Note}}

{{Reflist|30em}}

• [http://kslegislature.org/li/chamber/senate/ Kansas Senate]
• [http://www.vote-smart.org/official_state_legislator.php?type=office&state_id=KS&criteria=upper State Senate of Kansas] at Project Vote Smart
• {{Ballotpedia|Kansas_State_Senate}}
• [https://cdm16884.contentdm.oclc.org/digital/search/searchterm/G1-Brownback-Collection/field/all/mode/all/conn/all/order/dated/ad/asc Publications concerning Kansas Governor Brownback's administration available via the KGI Online Library]

Category:Business taxes

Category:Experiments

Category:Income taxation

Category:Kansas Legislature

Category:Personal taxes in the United States

Category:Supply-side economics

Category:Tax policy

Category:Economic history of Kansas