Ken Ring (writer)

{{Short description|New Zealand writer}}

{{Use British English|date=July 2011}}

{{Use dmy dates|date=July 2020}}

Ken Ring is a writer from Auckland, New Zealand, who asserts that he can use lunar cycles to predict weather and earthquakes. He terms his predictions "alternative weather" and has authored books about the weather and climate. Ring publishes almanacs each year for New Zealand, Australia and Ireland in which he provides weather predictions for the entire year. His New Zealand almanac covers 64 towns. Ring's methods have been shown to be unscientific and have been widely confirmed as fake and pseudoscience by many real scientists in the fields of meteorology and geology.{{cite news |author= Agence France-Presse |title= Scientists slam 'Moonman' earthquake predictor |work= physorg.com |date= 3 March 2011 |url= http://www.physorg.com/news/2011-03-scientists-slam-moonman-earthquake-predictor.html|access-date= 5 September 2011}}

Ring says he predicted the 4 September 2010 Christchurch earthquake and the deadly 22 February 2011 Christchurch earthquake. He also said there would probably be an earthquake in Marlborough or north Canterbury "just before noon" on 20 March 2011. This caused some residents to leave Christchurch and led to criticism from scientists and sceptics. Further research into his predictions showed that his forecasting record did not hold up under scrutiny.{{cite news |author= John at SillyBeliefs.com |title= Ken Ring did NOT predict the Sept Christchurch earthquake |work= sillybeliefs.com |date= 23 February 2011 |url= http://www.sillybeliefs.com/ring-rc-3.html#commentring-1|access-date= 22 October 2014}}

Mathman

Ken Ring has been a mathematics teacher,{{cite web |url= http://www.randomhouse.com.au/Author/Ring,%20Ken |title=Our authors: Ken Ring |work=Random House Australia |access-date=20 June 2011}} musician, actor, clown, speech therapist, private tutor to children with learning difficulties, teacher of English as a second language, and part-time teachers' college lecturer.{{cite web |url=http://www.mathman.co.nz/author.html |title=Author |work=Mathman.co.nz |publisher=Ken Ring |access-date=27 February 2011 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100526220746/http://www.mathman.co.nz/author.html |archive-date=26 May 2010 |url-status=dead }} He has used magic to teach children about mathematics, performing under the name "Mathman",{{cite web |url=http://www.mathman.co.nz/ |title=Ken Ring - home page |work=Mathman.co.nz |publisher=Ken Ring |access-date=27 February 2011 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20181220124335/http://mathman.co.nz/ |archive-date=20 December 2018 |url-status=dead }} and has written books on mathematics, magic, teaching and music.{{cite web |url=http://www.mathman.co.nz/books.html |title=Books/videos |work=Mathman.co.nz |publisher=Ken Ring |access-date=27 February 2011 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100526221026/http://www.mathman.co.nz/books.html |archive-date=26 May 2010 |url-status=dead }} He also co-wrote a book on reading cats' paws, which he says "was a joke".{{cite web |url= http://www.readfearn.com/2011/01/a-sunrise-climate-cock-up-and-reading-cats-paws/ |title=A Sunrise climate cock-up and reading cat's paws |first=Graham |last=Readfearn |date=6 January 2011 |work=Graham Readfearn |access-date=19 June 2011}}

Ken has also claimed in the past to being "University Science Trained",{{cite web |url= https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/85949561#Comment_85949561 | title=Ken Rings Predictions/Weather methods discussion forum | author= Ken Ring | access-date= 9 November 2022}} though Ring has never been able to show any qualifications to support that unfounded claim.

Predicting weather

Ring is known for attempting to predict weather and authors books on "how the moon affects the weather", which include an almanac each year for New Zealand (since 1999), Australia (since 2006) and Ireland (since 2010).{{cite news |url= http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/blame-it-on-the-moon-says-longrange-forecaster/2006/07/23/1153593211117.html |title=Blame it on the moon, says long-range forecaster |newspaper=The Sydney Morning Herald |author=Richard Macey |date=24 July 2006}}{{cite news |title=Kiwi weatherman offers ray of summer sunshine |url= http://www.independent.ie/farming/news-features/kiwi-weatherman-offers-ray-of-summer-sunshine-2043447.html |author=Martin Ryan |work=Independent.ie |date=2 February 2010}} He believes that the cycle of weather follows a lunar pattern and can be used to predict weather many years in advance.{{cite web |url= http://www.predictweather.co.nz/Default.aspx |title=The home of long range weather |work=Predict Weather |access-date=27 March 2011}} The supposed lunar cycle that Ring uses is stated to occur every 9 years,{{cite encyclopedia |title=Lunar Markings on Fajada Butte, Chaco Canyon, New Mexico |author=A. Sofaer, R. M. Sinclair and L. E. Doggett |editor=A.F. Aveni |pages=169–86 |publisher=Cambridge University Press |year=1982 |url= http://www.solsticeproject.org/lunarmark.htm |encyclopedia= Archaeoastronomy in the New World}} though no such lunar cycle actually exists in reality, while the solar cycle repeats at 11-year intervals{{Cite journal |last=Hathaway |first=David H. |date=December 2015 |title=The Solar Cycle |journal=Living Reviews in Solar Physics |language=en |volume=12 |issue=1 |pages=4 |doi=10.1007/lrsp-2015-4 |issn=2367-3648 |pmc=4841188 |pmid=27194958}} and by assessing the two Ring believes that the weather recycles through a 355-day cycle, a 19-year cycle, and a 36-year cycle.{{cite news |title=Thinking outside the square |author=Sarah Lang |date=23 June 2008 |newspaper=The New Zealand Herald |url= http://www.nzherald.co.nz/lifestyle/news/article.cfm?c_id=6&objectid=10517894}} According to his website it is not an exact science - it has been shown to not follow any scientific methodology. When questioned about the proven inaccuracies in his predictions, Ring has claimed that his rainfall predictions can be out by 24 hours and a radius of {{convert|50|to|60|mi|km}}.{{cite web |author=Ken Ring |url= http://predictweather.co.nz/ArticleShow.aspx?ID=194&type=home |title=An inexact science |work=Predict Weather |date=1 October 2009 |access-date=27 March 2011}} On 1 February 2023 he extended the amount of time that his predictions could be out to 168 hours (1 Week) in a comment on his Facebook Page.

His New Zealand almanac covers 64 towns. He also writes columns for farming and fishing publications and is an on-call weather reporter for Channel 7's Today Tonight show. He says he has provided forecasts for specific events including the Melbourne Cup, Ellerslie Flower Show and the Auckland Santa Parade.{{cite news|title=Moon man offers forecasts to help selectors |author=Errol Kiong |date=6 September 2007|newspaper=The New Zealand Herald |url=http://www.nzherald.co.nz/rugby/news/article.cfm?c_id=80&objectid=10461924}} Ring speaks at various business and media events and has produced long range weather predictions for the Gisborne City Council through to 2020.

He terms his predictions "alternative weather"{{cite news |title=Weather with a jazz beat |author=Anna Rushworth and Anna Leask |date=21 September 2008 |newspaper=The New Zealand Herald |url= http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10533362}} and they are not supported by any current science.{{cite web |url=http://www.predictweather.co.nz/ArticleShow.aspx?ID=195&type=home |title=Ken Ring, the Moonman, and lunar science |work=Predict Weather |date=12 August 2010 |access-date=27 March 2011}} Author of the New Zealand Weather Book and MetService employee Erick Brenstrum, wrote a column in the New Zealand Geographic analysing his 2005 predictions. He compared two weather systems (the northwest winds that bring rain to the west coast and lows that bring rain to the east coast) and has stated that out of 40 occurrences only 1 matched with Ring's predictions.{{cite web |url= http://www.limestonehills.co.nz/Down%20On%20The%20Farm/Topics/Ringworld.html |title=On The Farm Truffles & Stuff: Ringworld |publisher=Gareth Renowden |author=Gareth Renowden |date=19 September 2006 |access-date=27 March 2011}} Ken replied accusing Brenstrum of bullying and insists he has proof of an 85 percent success rate, to which the editor responded with: "...once you publish a book, you're fair game for public scrutiny of its content and your own competence." Retired schoolteacher and amateur astronomer Bill Keir believes Ring makes a genuine attempt at scientific discourse, but either doesn't understand the science or changes it to fit with his own theories. Keir published articles in the Auckland Astronomical Society journal that examine and critique Ring's theories.{{cite web|title=Does the Moon Cause the River (part 1) |author=Bill Keir |publisher=Auckland Astronomical Society |url=//www.astronomy.org.nz/aas/Journal/Oct2004/PseudoWeather.asp |access-date=28 March 2011 |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20071012030258/http://www.astronomy.org.nz/aas/Journal/Oct2004/PseudoWeather.asp |archive-date=12 October 2007 }}{{cite web|title=Does the Moon Cause the River (part 2) |author=Bill Keir |publisher=Auckland Astronomical Society |url=//www.astronomy.org.nz/aas/Journal/Nov2004/PseudoWeather.asp |access-date=28 March 2011 |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20071012095338/http://www.astronomy.org.nz/aas/Journal/Nov2004/PseudoWeather.asp |archive-date=12 October 2007 }}{{cite web|title=Does the Moon Cause the River (part 3) |author=Bill Keir |publisher=Auckland Astronomical Society |url=//www.astronomy.org.nz/aas/Journal/Apr2005/PseudoWeather.asp |access-date=28 March 2011 |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20071012064210/http://www.astronomy.org.nz/aas/Journal/Apr2005/PseudoWeather.asp |archive-date=12 October 2007 }}

Ring says that a former client and member of the All Blacks management approached him in 2007 for forecasts on days when the team was playing, reportedly to aid in team selections. Ian Ferguson, a former Olympian and now an events organiser says he consults with Ring before any big event and has never had to cancel.{{cite news |title=Running rings around the Moon |author=Steve Mason |url=http://www.stuff.co.nz/marlborough-express/news/editors-blog/4783257/Running-rings-around-the-Moon |date=18 March 2011 |newspaper=The Marlborough Express}} Ring uses similar methods (moon's position and phase) to predict when fish will bite, publishing his predictions in the NZ Fishing World magazine.{{cite web |author=Geoff Thomas |url= http://www.nzherald.co.nz/opinion/news/article.cfm?c_id=466&objectid=10715245 |title=Moon Man right on the spot |work=New Zealand Herald |date=27 March 2011 |access-date=27 March 2011}} Ring denies global warming, stating that it is a "{{Sic|hide=y|politically|-}}motivated power grab by politicians and the far left" and "full of bad science".{{cite web |url= http://www.predictweather.co.nz/ArticleShow.aspx?ID=219&type=home |title=Imagine no global warming, it's easy if you try.. |work=Predict Weather |date=2 October 2009 |access-date=27 March 2011}}{{cite web |url= http://www.predictweather.co.nz/ArticleShow.aspx?ID=243&type=home |title=Threat to freedom: global warning |work=Predict Weather |date=25 January 2010 |access-date=27 March 2011}}{{cite web |author=Ken Ring |url= http://www.predictweather.co.nz/ArticleShow.aspx?ID=211&type=home |title=Global warming in a flat-Earth |work=Predict Weather |date=1 October 2009 |access-date=27 March 2011}} During the launch of his 2008 almanac he said that "we have a responsibility to create global warming" as "life likes warmth".{{cite news |url= http://www.stuff.co.nz/taranaki-daily-news/news/656270 |title=Self-taught forecaster wants warmer world |newspaper=Taranaki Daily News |date=3 October 2008 |access-date=28 March 2011}}

Earthquake prediction

Ring attempts to predict earthquakes based on the orbital position of the Moon. On his website he says that when the Moon (in particular the new moon) is at perigee (closest to the Earth) it may affect the Earth's mantle and alter the magnetic field. He also suggests this situation may also draw the Van Allen Belt closer to the Earth, attracting radioactively charged particles towards Earth, though there is no mechanism attributable nor has this phenomenon been observed in reality. Ring believes this combination of New Moon and perigee may be responsible for earthquakes and volcanoes.{{cite web |url= http://www.predictweather.co.nz/ArticleShow.aspx?ID=316&type=home |title=Can earthquakes be predicted? |date=25 October 2010 |author=Ken Ring |work=Predict Weather |access-date=31 March 2011}} Ring has predicted 221 days of supposed increased earthquake risk for New Zealand in 2011{{cite news |url=http://www.times-age.co.nz/local/news/ring-prediction-dismissed/3945176/ |work=Wairarapa Times-Age |title=Ring prediction dismissed |author=Nathan Crombie |date=21 March 2011 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120312225727/http://www.times-age.co.nz/news/ring-prediction-dismissed/1048750/ |archive-date=2012-03-12}} and more than half of the time between the start of January and the end of March as earthquake risk.{{cite news |title=Ken Ring: Can he actually predict earthquakes? |date=17 March 2011 |author=Dan Satherley |url= http://www.3news.co.nz/Ken-Ring-Can-he-actually-predict-earthquakes/tabid/1160/articleID/202642/Default.aspx |work=3 News}}

On his weekly Radio Waatea broadcast on {{Failed verification span|text=3 September 2010|date=June 2024}} he said "you’ll be reading about floods and winds and earthquakes and snow over the next week or so, particularly the South Island".{{cite web |url= http://www.3news.co.nz/Valentines-Day-tweet-predicted-Christchurch-quake-Ken-Ring/tabid/423/articleID/199449/Default.aspx |title=Valentine's Day tweet predicted Christchurch quake? Ken Ring |author=Greg Robertson |work=3 News |date=23 February 2011 |access-date=31 March 2011 |archive-url=https://archive.today/20130222221122/http://www.3news.co.nz/Valentines-Day-tweet-predicted-Christchurch-quake-Ken-Ring/tabid/423/articleID/199449/Default.aspx |archive-date=22 February 2013}} Early the next morning a 7.1 magnitude earthquake struck Christchurch.

On 7 September 2010 he wrote on his website that there would "probably be an east/west faultline event" in Marlborough or north Canterbury "just before noon" on 20 March 2011.{{cite web |url= http://www.predictweather.co.nz/ArticleShow.aspx?ID=306 |title=Christchurch earthquake update |first=Ken |last=Ring |date=7 September 2010 |work=Predict Weather |access-date=19 June 2011 }}{{cite news |title=Quake prediction 'like a horoscope' |first=Tania |last=Butterfield |url=http://www.stuff.co.nz/marlborough-express/news/4674668/Quake-prediction-like-a-horoscope |newspaper=The Marlborough Express |date=18 February 2011 |access-date=9 July 2011}} The next day he wrote on Twitter, "The Christchurch earthquake was predictable. And there's another coming in 6 months." He directed readers to his website to find out just when it would be.{{cite web |url= https://twitter.com/kenringweather/status/23856729753 |title=The Christchurch earthquake was predictable. And there's another coming in 6 months. See www.predictweather.com to find out when |first=Ken |last=Ring |date=8 September 2010 |work=Twitter |access-date=7 July 2011}} Another two days later in a Radio Live interview, he told Marcus Lush that "the next one" would be "round about lunchtime on the 20th of March" and that "the South Island is going to be right in the firing line".{{cite news |title=Ken Ring and his natural disaster predictions – audio |date=10 September 2010 |url= http://www.radiolive.co.nz/Ken-Ring-and-his-natural-disaster-predictions/tabid/506/articleID/16022/Default.aspx |work=Radio Live}}

{{blockquote|The morning of 20 March 2011 sees the South island again in a big earthquake risk for all the same reasons. This date is the closest fly-past the moon does in all of 2011. The node arrives on the 20th at 9.44am. As that date coincides with lunar equinox this will probably be an east/west faultline event this time, and therefore should be more confined to a narrower band of latitude. The only east/west fault lines in NZ are in Marlborough and N Canterbury. All factors should come together for a moon-shot straight through the centre of the earth and targeting NZ. The time will be just before noon. It could be another for the history books.|Ken Ring|Predict Weather, 7 September 2010}}

On 14 February 2011 Ring tweeted "Potential earthquake time for the planet between 15th–25th, especially 18th for Christchurch, +/- about 3 days."{{cite web |url= https://twitter.com/kenringweather/status/36763786807345152 |title=Potential earthquake time for the planet between 15th-25th, especially 18th for Christchurch, +/- about 3 days. www.predictweather.com |first=Ken |last=Ring |date=14 February 2011 |work=Twitter |access-date=7 July 2011}} A deadly 6.3 magnitude aftershock struck Christchurch on 22 February.

Following the earthquakes Ring received a lot of media attention. John Campbell interviewed Ring on Campbell Live on 28 February{{cite news |title=Ken Ring: 'I predicted the Christchurch quake' |date=28 February 2011 |url= http://www.3news.co.nz/Ken-Ring-I-predicted-the-Christchurch-quake-/tabid/817/articleID/200226/Default.aspx |work=3 News}} and was criticised for being arrogant and not giving Ring a fair chance to speak.{{cite news |title=Viewers criticise John Campbell |url= http://www.stuff.co.nz/southland-times/entertainment/4718674/Viewers-criticise-John-Campbell-interview |work=The Southland Times |date=1 March 2011}} Campbell later apologised,{{cite news |title=John Campbell to Ken Ring: I am sincerely sorry |author=John Campbell |date=1 March 2011 |work=3 News |url=http://www.3news.co.nz/John-Campbell-to-Ken-Ring-I-am-sincerely-sorry/tabid/817/articleID/200416/Default.aspx |access-date=2 June 2011 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110606095327/http://www.3news.co.nz/John-Campbell-to-Ken-Ring-I-am-sincerely-sorry/tabid/817/articleID/200416/Default.aspx |archive-date=6 June 2011 |url-status=dead }} but his interview may have unintentionally generated sympathy for Ring.{{cite news |title=Christchurch begins to believe 'Moon Man' who predicted quakes |author=Tim Hume |date=23 March 2011 |work=The Independent |url= https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/australasia/christchurch-begins-to-believe-moon-man-who-predicted-quakes-2250146.html}} Prior to 20 March 2011, Cabinet minister Nick Smith, who has a PhD in geotechnical engineering, said Ring's predictions were "reckless and irresponsible" and suggested that Ring should be "held to account for his predictions of a further earthquake in Christchurch".{{cite news |author=Alex Walls |title= Nick Smith: Ken Ring offensive; should be held to account |work=The National Business Review |quote= ACC Minister Nick Smith has said that earthquake soothsayer Ken Ring was "reckless" and "irresponsible" and that he ought to be held to account for his predictions of a further earthquake in Christchurch. |date=15 March 2011 |url= http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/nick-smith-ken-ring-offensive-should-be-held-account-ck-88242?page=2 |access-date=19 June 2011}} Smith added that "the last thing needed by thousands of traumatised people in Canterbury, including elderly and children, is junk science and made-up predictions of future major quakes."{{cite news |author=Agence France-Presse |title= New Zealand sceptics defy 'Moonman' quake prophecy |newspaper=Canada.com |quote= Geologists, engineers and like-minded sceptics will meet in earthquake-devastated Christchurch Sunday to mock "junk science" predictions another major tremor will hit the city this weekend. |date= 14 March 2011 |url= http://www.canada.com/news/canada-at-war/Zealand+sceptics+defy+Moonman+quake+prophecy/4435517/story.html |access-date=19 June 2011}} Smith described Ring as "scaremongering"{{cite news |title='Reckless' quake claims not helping, says Smith |date=20 March 2011 |work=One News |url= http://tvnz.co.nz/national-news/reckless-quake-claims-not-helping-says-smith-4073216}} and attended a lunch on 20 March at the Sign of the Kiwi, close to the epicentre of 22 February earthquake, organised by the New Zealand Skeptics organisation.{{cite news |title=Christchurch earthquake: Sceptics take aim at Ken Ring |author=Andre Hueber |date=13 March 2011 |url= http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10712024 |work=The New Zealand Herald }} After the widespread death and destruction caused by the earlier earthquakes{{cite web |url= http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/christchurch-earthquake/4780793/Christchurch-earthquake-death-toll-reaches-182 |title=Christchurch earthquake death toll reaches 182 |work=Stuff |date=17 March 2011}}{{cite news

|url= https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-11183685 |title=Strong earthquake rocks New Zealand's South Island |work=BBC News |date=3 September 2010}} counsellors say his prediction for 20 March terrified "even the most rational" of people.{{cite news |title=Ken Ring's Christchurch earthquake claims 'terrifying' people |author=Stacey Wood and Kirsty Johnston |url= http://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/news/4776904/Rings-claims-terrifying-people |date=17 March 2011 |work=The Dominion Post}} 18 March had been made a special public holiday for Christchurch, and some residents left the city for the three-day weekend of 18–20 March, citing a mix of doubt and concern over the prediction, as well as wishing to have a break from the aftershocks and to take advantage of the long weekend.{{cite news |title=Christchurch residents flee |author=Michael Wright |date=19 March 2011 |url= http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/christchurch-earthquake/4787664/Christchurch-residents-flee |work=Stuff.co.nz}} A 5.1 magnitude aftershock occurred at 9:47 pm (NZDT) on 20 March,{{cite news |title=5.1 aftershock hits Christchurch |date=20 March 2011 |url= http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/christchurch-earthquake/4789898/5-1-earthquake-hits-Christchurch |work=Stuff }} and according to his supporters validated Ring's prediction.{{cite news |title=Ken Ring supporters: 'Told you so!' |date=21 March 2011 |author=Dan Satherley |url= http://www.3news.co.nz/Ken-Ring-supporters-Told-you-so/tabid/1160/articleID/203272/Default.aspx |work=3 News}} Scientists contend there is no link with Ring's predictions,{{cite news |title=5.1 quake but Moon Man link ruled out |author=Lincoln Tan and Amelia Wade |date=21 March 2011 |newspaper=The New Zealand Herald |url= http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10713891}} and with a quake measuring 5 or higher occurring once every 11 days since 4 September, it was within the range expected in the ongoing aftershock pattern.{{cite news |title=No revival of a bad moon rising, Mr Ring |author=Paul Gorman |date=21 March 2011 |url= http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/christchurch-earthquake-2011/4790241/No-revival-of-a-bad-moon-rising-Mr-Ring |work=The Press }}

David Winter, a PhD student in evolutionary genetics, analysed Ring's predictions and noted that the moon only explains a 2% variation in earthquake activity{{cite web |url= http://theatavism.blogspot.com/2011/02/ken-ring-can-predict-earthquakes-either.html |title=Ken Ring can't predict earthquakes either |first=David |last=Winter |date=1 March 2011 |work=The Atavism |access-date=21 June 2011}} and wrote that cognitive and hindsight bias are possible reasons for so many people believing his predictions. New Zealand's TV3 news channel says they have not been able to "find a single scientist, geologist or seismologist which believes in Ken Ring's theories".{{cite news |title= Ken Ring: 'I predicted the Christchurch quake' |newspaper=3 News |quote= We have not found a single scientist, geologist or seismologist which believes in Ken Ring's theories. |date= 28 February 2011 |url= http://www.3news.co.nz/Ken-Ring-I-predicted-the-Christchurch-quake-/tabid/817/articleID/200226/Default.aspx |access-date=16 June 2011}} Alison Campbell, a lecturer in science education at the University of Waikato,{{cite web |url=http://www.sciencelearn.org.nz/Science-Stories/Celebrating-Science/2007-Awards/Dr-Alison-Campbell |title=Dr Alison Campbell |date=7 May 2009 |work=Science Learning Hub |publisher=The University of Waikato |access-date=28 June 2011 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20111006163208/http://www.sciencelearn.org.nz/Science-Stories/Celebrating-Science/2007-Awards/Dr-Alison-Campbell |archive-date=6 October 2011 |url-status=dead }} criticised Ring's predictions for "imprecision", "inconsistencies", and being "vaguely worded", and described Ring as "hedging his bets."{{cite web |url= http://sci.waikato.ac.nz/bioblog/2011/03/predicting-earthquakes-hedging.shtml |title=Predicting earthquakes: hedging your bets |first=Alison |last=Campbell |date=1 March 2011 |work=BioBlog |access-date=28 June 2011 |quote= He's also hedging his bets – the phrasing here is so vague that just about any untoward event would count as an accurate prediction. Just what would qualify as a "severe weather event"? Will it really be "worldwide" – as in the sense of "global" – or is this statement intentionally broad so that any instance of severe weather on March 20th, anywhere in the world, could thus count as a 'correct' prediction? (What is "severe", anyway?) I have asked Ken for clarification on this, on the SciBlogs mirror of my blog, but so far – despite him saying there that "I never shy away from questions" – I’m afraid I’ve had no further clarification.}}

{{cquote|The problem is though, that such vaguely worded 'predictions', with their lack of precision, are so wide open that they lend themselves to confirmation bias. – Alison Campbell, March 2011}}

One such example of confirmation bias is a Ring prediction from 2011, which was reported in an article for local Wellington newspaper, the Upper Hutt Leader. On 14 November 2016, Kaikoura and Wellington city experienced a M7.8 earthquake. Ring was quoted in 2011 as saying "I do expect earthquake activity exceeding 7 on the Richter to come about every 11 to 13 years, as they have done in Wellington in February 1893, August 1904, August 1917, July 1929, August 1942, May 1968 and May 1992. As the last in the series of above-7s was in 1992 we can reasonably expect a 7 mag between 2013 and 2016,"{{cite web |url=http://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/news/local-papers/upper-hutt-leader/5733582/Moon-Man-predicts-big-quake-by-2016 |title=Moon Man predicts big quake by 2016 |date=5 October 2011 |work=Upper Hutt Leader |publisher=Upper Hutt Leader |access-date=12 December 2016}} allowing a full four-year window for an earthquake to occur, making the "prediction" useless.

References

{{Reflist|30em}}