Land use, land-use change, and forestry

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File:8000 BCE+ Loss of forest and grassland to grazing and crops.svg

Land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF), also referred to as Forestry and other land use (FOLU) or Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU),{{Cite web |title=Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) — IPCC |url=https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg3/agriculture-forestry-and-other-land-use-afolu/ |access-date=2023-10-26}}M. Pathak, R. Slade, P.R. Shukla, J. Skea, R. Pichs-Madruga, D. Ürge-Vorsatz,2022: [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg3/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGIII_TechnicalSummary.pdf Technical Summary]. In: [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg3/ Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change] [P.R. Shukla, J. Skea, R. Slade, A. Al Khourdajie, R. van Diemen, D. McCollum, M. Pathak, S. Some, P. Vyas, R. Fradera, M. Belkacemi, A. Hasija, G. Lisboa, S. Luz, J. Malley, (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA. doi: 10.1017/9781009157926.002.{{rp|65}} is defined as a "greenhouse gas inventory sector that covers emissions and removals of greenhouse gases resulting from direct human-induced land use such as settlements and commercial uses, land-use change, and forestry activities."{{Cite web|url=https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-convention/glossary-of-climate-change-acronyms-and-terms#l|title=Glossary of climate change acronyms and terms|website=UNFCCC|access-date=2020-04-06}}

LULUCF has impacts on the global carbon cycle and as such, these activities can add or remove carbon dioxide (or, more generally, carbon) from the atmosphere, influencing climate.{{Cite book|title=Land use and the carbon cycle : advances in integrated science, management, and policy|date=2013|publisher=Cambridge University Press|editor=Brown, Daniel G.|isbn=9781107648357|location=Cambridge|oclc=823505307}} LULUCF has been the subject of two major reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), but is difficult to measure.{{cite book |year=2022 |chapter=2022: Emissions Trends and Drivers |url=https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg3/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGIII_Chapter02.pdf |title=IPCC, 2022: Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change| doi=10.1017/9781009157926.004}}{{Rp|page=12}} Additionally, land use is of critical importance for biodiversity.Towards Sustainable Land Use: Aligning Biodiversity, Climate and Food Policies. (2020). France: OECD Publishing.

Development

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Article 4(1)(a) requires all Parties to "develop, periodically update, publish and make available to the Conference of the Parties" as well as "national inventories of anthropogenic emissions by sources" "removals by sinks of all greenhouse gases not controlled by the Montreal Protocol."

Under the UNFCCC reporting guidelines, human-induced greenhouse emissions must be reported in six sectors: energy (including stationary energy and transport); industrial processes; solvent and other product use; agriculture; waste; and land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF).Department of the Environment and Heritage (DEH) 2006, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory 2004: Accounting for the 108% Target, Commonwealth of Australia, Canberra.

The rules governing accounting and reporting of greenhouse gas emissions from LULUCF under the Kyoto Protocol are contained in several decisions of the Conference of Parties under the UNFCCC.

LULUCF has been the subject of two major reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).{{cite report| publisher=Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change| title=Good Practice Guidance for Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry| year=2003| url=https://www.ipcc.ch/publication/good-practice-guidance-for-land-use-land-use-change-and-forestry/| isbn=4887880030}}

The Kyoto Protocol article 3.3 thus requires mandatory LULUCF accounting for afforestation (no forest for last 50 years), reforestation (no forest on 31 December 1989) and deforestation, as well as (in the first commitment period) under article 3.4 voluntary accounting for cropland management, grazing land management, revegetation and forest management (if not already accounted under article 3.3).{{cite journal |vauthors=Hohne N, Wartmann S, Herold A, Freibauer A |year=2007 |title=The rules for land use, land use change and forestry under the Kyoto Protocol—lessons learned for the future climate negotiations |journal=Environmental Science and Policy |volume=10 |issue=4 |pages=353–69 |doi=10.1016/j.envsci.2007.02.001|bibcode=2007ESPol..10..353H }} at p. 354

This decision sets out the rules that govern how Kyoto Parties with emission reduction commitments (so-called Annex 1 Parties) account for changes in carbon stocks in land use, land-use change and forestry.{{Cite web |title=Reporting on LULUCF activities under the Kyoto Protocol |url=https://unfccc.int/topics/land-use/workstreams/land-use-land-use-change-and-forestry-lulucf/reporting-on-lulucf-activities-under-the-kyoto-protocol |access-date=2020-04-22 |website=unfccc.int}} It is mandatory for Annex 1 Parties to account for changes in carbons stocks resulting from deforestation, reforestation and afforestation (B Article 3.3){{cite web |title=Microsoft Word - kpcmp8a3.doc |url=http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2005/cmp1/eng/08a03.pdf |access-date=2010-04-29}} and voluntary to account for emissions from forest management, cropland management, grazing land management and revegetation (B. Article 3.4).

The flexibility mechanisms under the Kyoto Protocol, including the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Joint Implementation (JI), also include provisions for LULUCF projects, further enhancing the integration of land use considerations into climate change mitigation strategies.

Climate impacts

File:GHG per capita 2000.svg

Land-use change can be a factor in CO₂ (carbon dioxide) atmospheric concentration, and is thus a contributor to global climate change.{{cite journal |last1=Ochoa-Hueso |first1=R |last2=Delgado-Baquerizo |first2=M |last3=King |first3=PTA |last4=Benham |first4=M |last5=Arca |first5=V |last6=Power |first6=SA |title=Ecosystem type and resource quality are more important than global change drivers in regulating early stages of litter decomposition |journal=Soil Biology and Biochemistry |date=February 2019 |volume=129 |pages=144–152 |doi=10.1016/j.soilbio.2018.11.009 |bibcode=2019SBiBi.129..144O |s2cid=92606851 |hdl=10261/336676 |hdl-access=free }} IPCC estimates that land-use change (e.g. conversion of forest into agricultural land) contributes a net 1.6 ± 0.8 Gt carbon per year to the atmosphere. For comparison, the major source of CO₂, namely emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production, amount to 6.3 ± 0.6 Gt carbon per year.{{cite web|url=https://www.ipcc.ch/report/land-use-land-use-change-and-forestry/|title=IPCC Special Reports: Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry|website=ipcc.ch|access-date=2020-10-19}}

In 2021 the Global Carbon Project estimated annual land-use change emissions were 4.1 ± 2.6 Gt {{CO2}} ({{CO2}} not carbon: 1 Gt carbon = 3.67 Gt {{CO2}} {{cite web |title=Comparing {{CO2}} emissions to {{CO2}} levels |url=https://skepticalscience.com/print.php?r=45 |website=Sceptical science |access-date=26 January 2020}}) for 2011–2020.{{Cite journal|last1=Friedlingstein|first1=Pierre|last2=Jones|first2=Matthew W.|last3=O'Sullivan|first3=Michael|last4=Andrew|first4=Robbie M.|last5=Bakker|first5=Dorothee C. E.|last6=Hauck|first6=Judith|last7=Le Quéré|first7=Corinne|last8=Peters|first8=Glen P.|last9=Peters|first9=Wouter|last10=Pongratz|first10=Julia|last11=Sitch|first11=Stephen|date=2021-11-04|title=Global Carbon Budget 2021|url=https://essd.copernicus.org/preprints/essd-2021-386/|journal=Earth System Science Data Discussions|volume=14 |issue=4 |language=English|pages=1917–2005|doi=10.5194/essd-2021-386|issn=1866-3508|doi-access=free}}

The land-use sector is critical to achieving the aim of the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to {{convert|2|C-change|F-change|1}}.{{Cite web|url=https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/forests/lulucf_en|title=Land use and forestry regulation for 2021-2030|date=2016-11-23|website=Climate Action - European Commission|access-date=2020-04-06}}

Land-use change alters not just atmospheric CO₂ concentration but also land surface biophysics such as albedo and evapotranspiration, both of which affect climate.{{cite journal |last1=Kaiguang |first1=Zhao |last2=Jackson |first2=Robert B. |title=Biophysical forcings of land-use changes from potential forestry activities in North America. |journal=Ecological Monographs |date=2014 |volume=84 |issue=2 |page=329-353 |doi=10.1890/12-1705.1 |bibcode=2014EcoM...84..329Z |url=https://jacksonlab.stanford.edu/sites/g/files/sbiybj20871/files/media/file/em2014.pdf}} The impact of land-use change on the climate is also more and more recognized by the climate modeling community. On regional or local scales, the impact of LUC can be assessed by Regional climate models (RCMs). This is however difficult, particularly for variables, which are inherently noisy, such as precipitation. For this reason, it is suggested to conduct RCM ensemble simulations.{{cite journal|doi=10.1002/joc.4836 | volume=37 | issue=4 | title=How many RCM ensemble members provide confidence in the impact of land-use land cover change? | year=2016 | journal=International Journal of Climatology | pages=2080–2100 | last1 = Laux | first1 = Patrick| url=https://opus.bibliothek.uni-augsburg.de/opus4/files/38379/0094.pdf | doi-access=free }}

Extents and mapping

File:Spatial extent of global land use- & land-cover change.webp

A 2021 study estimated, with higher resolution data, that land-use change has affected 17% of land in 1960–2019, or when considering multiple change events 32%, "around four times" previous estimates. They also investigate its drivers, identifying global trade affecting agriculture as a main driver.{{cite news |title=Nearly a fifth of Earth's surface transformed since 1960 |url=https://phys.org/news/2021-05-earth-surface.html |access-date=13 June 2021 |work=phys.org |language=en}}{{cite journal |last1=Winkler |first1=Karina |last2=Fuchs |first2=Richard |last3=Rounsevell |first3=Mark |last4=Herold |first4=Martin |title=Global land use changes are four times greater than previously estimated |journal=Nature Communications |date=2021-05-11 |volume=12 |issue=1 |pages=2501 |doi=10.1038/s41467-021-22702-2 |pmid=33976120 |pmc=8113269 |bibcode=2021NatCo..12.2501W |language=en |issn=2041-1723}} 50px Available under [https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ CC BY 4.0].

Forest modeling

Earth system modeling has traditionally been used to analyze forests for climate projections. However, in recent years, there has been a shift away from this modeling towards more mitigation and adaptation projections.{{Cite book|last=National Research Council (U.S.). Committee on a National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling.|title=A national strategy for advancing climate modeling|date=2012|publisher=National Academies Press|others=National Research Council (U.S.). Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate., National Research Council (U.S.). Division on Earth and Life Studies.|isbn=978-0-309-25978-1|location=Washington, D.C.|oclc=824780474}} These projections can give researchers a better understanding of future forest management practices to employ. Furthermore, this new modeling approach also allows for land management practices to be analyzed in the model. Land management practices include forest harvest, tree species selection, grazing, and crop harvest. Land management practices produce biophysical and biogeochemical effects on the forest, and following the model can increase the likelihood of success. Where there is a lack of available data for these practices, further monitoring and data collecting are needed to improve the models' accuracy.{{Cite web |title=5. Improving Data Collection across the Health Care System |url=https://www.ahrq.gov/research/findings/final-reports/iomracereport/reldata5.html |access-date=2023-10-19 |website=www.ahrq.gov |language=en-us}}

References

External links

[https://unfccc.int/topics/land-use/workstreams/land-use--land-use-change-and-forestry-lulucf Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF)] at UNFCCC
[http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/land_use/index.htm IPCC Special Report on Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry]

Category:Biodiversity

Category:Climate change and the environment

Category:Environmental issues with forests

Category:Land use