Metaculus

Three types of predictions can be made: probability predictions to binary questions that resolve as either 'yes' or 'no', numerical-range predictions, and date-range predictions. Users can contribute to the community prediction for any given question, leave comments and discuss prediction strategies with other users.{{Cite web |last=Shelton |first=Jim |date=2016-11-02 |title=Metaculus: a prediction website with an eye on science and technology |url=https://news.yale.edu/2016/11/02/metaculus-prediction-website-eye-science-and-technology |access-date=March 16, 2019 |website=YaleNews |language=en}} Users can suggest new questions which, after moderation, will be opened to the community.

Users can earn points for successful predictions (or lose points for unsuccessful predictions), and track their own predictive progress. The scoring awards points both for being right and for being more right than the community.[https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#howscore Metaculus, "FAQ"].

In January 2020, Metaculus introduced the Bentham Prize, which awards bi-weekly monetary prizes of $300, $200 and $100 to the first, second and third most valuable user contributions.{{cite web | last = Besiroglu | first = Tamay | title = The Bentham prize | website = Metaculus | date = January 15, 2020 | url = https://www.metaculus.com/news/2020/01/15/bentham-prize/ | access-date = 22 January 2020}} The following month, Metaculus introduced the Li Wenliang prize, which awards a number of different monetary prizes to questions, forecasts and analyses related to the COVID-19 outbreak.{{cite web | last = Besiroglu | first = Tamay | title = The Li Wenliang prize series for forecasting the COVID-19 outbreak | website = Metaculus | date = February 13, 2020 | url = https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3667/the-li-wenliang-prize-series-for-forecasting-the-covid-19-outbreak/ | access-date = 15 February 2020}}

Data scientist Max Wainwright and physicists Greg Laughlin and Anthony Aguirre launched the site in 2015. In June 2017, the Metaculus Prediction was launched, which is a system for aggregating user predictions.

{{cite web

| url=https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#metaculus-prediction

| url-status=live

| access-date=2022-11-13

| type=FAQ

| title=What is the Metaculus Prediction?

| website=Metaculus

| language=en-us

| archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20221110204627/https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#metaculus-prediction

| archive-date=2022-11-10

| quote=... the Metaculus Prediction uses a sophisticated model to calibrate and weight each user

}}

The Metaculus Prediction, on average, outperforms the median of the community's predictions when evaluated using the Brier or Log scoring rules.[https://futurism.com/forecasting-the-future-can-the-hive-mind-let-us-predict-the-future Forecasting the Future: Can The Hive Mind Let Us Predict the Future?], in Futurism, published September 16th 2016, retrieved March 16, 2019

In 2021, Metaculus received an Effective altruism infrastructure fund grant worth $300k.{{Cite web |title=May-August 2021: EA Infrastructure Fund Grants |url=https://ea-funds-nnwb52bo7-centreea.vercel.app/payouts/may-august-2021-ea-infrastructure-fund-grants |access-date=2023-05-14 |website=Effective Altruism Funds |language=en}} In 2022, Metaculus received a $5.5m grant from Open Philanthropy.{{Cite web |last=Metaculus |date=2022-07-28 |title=Metaculus Awarded $5.5M Grant to Advance Forecasting as a Public Good |url=https://metaculus.medium.com/metaculus-awarded-5-5m-grant-to-advance-forecasting-as-a-public-good-7fc20a161723 |access-date=2023-05-14 |website=Medium |language=en}} In October 2022, Metaculus received $20k funding from the FTX future fund, 3 weeks before the bankruptcy of FTX.{{Cite web |last=Metaculus |date=2022-10-12 |title=Metaculus Launches the 'Forecasting Our World In Data' Project to Probe the Long-Term Future |url=https://metaculus.medium.com/metaculus-launches-the-forecasting-our-world-in-data-project-to-probe-the-long-term-future-6d1d84d7b805 |access-date=2023-05-14 |website=Medium |language=en}}

In 2022 the organization announced it reached 1,000,000 individual predictions, and that it was restructured as a public-benefit corporation, it is committed to the following goals, its new charter compels it to report annually on its progress in achieving these goals:{{Cite web |date=2022-09-12 |title=Becoming a Public Benefit Corporation, Hitting 1 Million Predictions, and Three New AI Forecasting Roles |url=https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/22477/becoming-a-public-benefit-corporation-hitting-1-million-predictions-and-three-new-ai-forecasting-roles/ |access-date=2024-07-14 |website=www.metaculus.com |language=en-us}}

1. Fostering the growth, learning, and development of the forecasting and forecasting research communities.
2. Supporting stakeholders who are serving the public good by informing their decision making.
3. Increasing public access to information regarding forecasts of public interest.

In 2024, Metaculus rewrote their website code and released it under the BSD-2-Clause License.{{Cite web | last=Turan | first=Deger | date=June 21, 2024 | orig-date=June 5, 2024 |title=Open Sourcing Metaculus |url=https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/25078/open-sourcing-metaculus/ |access-date=July 14, 2024 |website=metaculus.com |language=en-us}}{{cite web | last=Chevalier | first=Sylvain | title=A Massive Rewrite, A Slate of Improvements, and Going Open Source | website=Metaculus | date=October 7, 2024 | url=https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/28734/ | url-status=live | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20241007150403/https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/28734/ | archive-date=October 7, 2024}}{{cite web | last= | first= | date= | title=Metaculus/metaculus | website=GitHub | url=https://github.com/Metaculus/metaculus | access-date=October 14, 2024}}

• Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
• Iowa Electronic Markets
• PredictIt
• Prediction market
• Futarchy

{{Reflist|30em}}

• [http://www.metaculus.com/ Metaculus website]

Category:Predictive analytics

Category:Prediction markets

Category:Organizations associated with effective altruism