Michael Lewis-Beck

Lewis-Beck earned a Bachelor of Arts with honors from Ball State University in (1965).{{Cite web |title=Michael Lewis-Beck {{!}} Political Science - College of Liberal Arts and Sciences {{!}} The University of Iowa |url=https://politicalscience.uiowa.edu/people/michael-lewis-beck |access-date=2024-11-18 |website=politicalscience.uiowa.edu |language=en}} He also has a Master of Arts and a Ph.D. from the University of Michigan. He earned his MA in August 1966, taking a gap in studies through 1966 to 1968 to serve in the Peace Corps in Guatemala. He earned his Ph.D. five years later in December 1973.

Lewis-Beck maintains his status as Professor Emeritus at the University of Iowa since 2010. As of November 2024, he has over 32,000 citations on Google Scholar and has authored or co-authored over 330 articles and books.{{Cite web |title=Michael S. Lewis-Beck |url=https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=2Egp8HIAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao |access-date=2024-11-18 |website=scholar.google.com}}{{Cite web |last=Lewis-Beck |first=Debra Leiter and Michael S. |date=2024-10-23 |title=Citizen Forecasting of the 2024 Presidential Election: Last Soundings |url=https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/citizen-forecasting-of-the-2024-presidential-election-last-soundings/ |access-date=2024-11-20 |website=Sabato's Crystal Ball |language=en-US}} Professor Beck's main areas of study are comparative politics, methodology, Western Europe, and the political economy.

He was formerly the editor-in-chief of the American Journal of Political Science from 1993 to 1994 and a past president of the Political Forecasting Group of the American Political Science Association.{{cite web |date=15 February 2019 |title=Lewis-Beck, Michael |url=https://us.sagepub.com/hi/nam/author/michael-s-lewis-beck |access-date=19 February 2019 |website=SAGE Publications Inc |language=hi}}{{cite web |date=21 May 2018 |title=Past Editors |url=https://ajps.org/about/past-editors/ |access-date=19 February 2019 |website=American Journal of Political Science |language=en}}

He was a visiting professor at Harvard University, University of London, GESIS-Leibniz Institute for the Social Sciences, University of Copenhagen, LUISS University, University of Leuven, Koc University, University of Siena, Italy, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, University of Manchester, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, University of Nantes, and Institut d’Etudes Politiques.

Lewis-Beck has received media attention for his predictions of the results of United States presidential elections based on economic factors.{{cite news |last1=Rosenbaum |first1=David E. |date=1 April 1996 |title=POLITICS: THE ECONOMY; Can the President Capitalize On the Economy's Strength? |url=https://www.nytimes.com/1996/04/01/us/politics-the-economy-can-the-president-capitalize-on-the-economy-s-strength.html |access-date=19 February 2019 |work=The New York Times}}{{cite news |date=23 August 2004 |title=Economic models predict Bush win - Aug. 23, 2004 |url=https://money.cnn.com/2004/08/23/news/election_models/index.htm |access-date=19 February 2019 |work=CNN}}{{cite news |last1=Gerstenzang |first1=James |date=23 November 2007 |title=The president's economic challenge |url=https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-2007-nov-23-na-bushecon23-story.html |access-date=19 February 2019 |work=Los Angeles Times}} Lewis-Beck told ABC News that the economy is "always at or near the top of the average voter’s agenda."{{Cite news |last=Butchireddygari |first=Likhitha |date=6 July 2020 |title="Voters Who Think The Economy Is The Country's Biggest Problem Are Pretty Trumpy. That Might Not Help Him Much." |url=https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/voters-who-think-the-economy-is-the-countrys-biggest-problem-are-pretty-trumpy-that-might-not-help-him-much/ |access-date=19 November 2024 |work=ABC News}}

He predicted that George H. W. Bush would win the 1992 presidential election, that Bill Clinton would win in 1996, and that Al Gore would win easily in 2000, telling the Washington Post that May that "It's not even going to be close."{{cite news |last1=Eisenhower |first1=Karl |date=31 May 2000 |title=The Phony Science of Predicting Elections |url=https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2000/05/the-phony-science-of-predicting-elections.html |access-date=19 February 2019 |work=Slate Magazine |language=en}}{{cite news |last1=Kettle |first1=Martin |date=1 September 2000 |title=It's President Gore, agree statisticians |url=https://www.theguardian.com/world/2000/sep/01/uselections2000.usa1 |access-date=19 February 2019 |work=The Guardian}} After Gore lost the 2000 election, Lewis-Beck modified his model to take job growth during the incumbent president's previous four-year term into account. He predicted in August 2004 that George W. Bush would receive 51% of the vote in that November's election, making it too close to call. Using the "Jobs Model", a model based on Gross National Product and growth in jobs, Lewis-Beck predicted Barack Obama would lose the 2012 election.{{Cite news |last=Balz |first=Dan |date=29 September 2012 |title=Romney or Obama? Political scientists make their predictions |url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/decision2012/romney-or-obama-political-scientists-make-their-predictions/2012/09/29/c2804842-0a5d-11e2-9eea-333857f6a7bd_story.html |access-date=19 November 2024 |newspaper=The Washington Post}}{{Cite news |last=Matthews |first=Dylan |date=31 August 2012 |title=Forecasting the election: Most models say Obama will win. But not all. |url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2012/08/31/forecasting-the-election-most-models-say-obama-will-win-but-not-all/ |access-date=19 November 2024 |newspaper=The Washington Post}}{{Cite journal |last1=Lewis-Beck |first1=Michael S. |last2=Tien |first2=Charles |date=27 September 2012 |title=Election Forecasting for Turbulent Times |url=https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S1049096512000893/type/journal_article |journal=PS: Political Science & Politics |language=en |volume=45 |issue=4 |pages=625–629 |doi=10.1017/S1049096512000893 |issn=1049-0965|url-access=subscription }} In 2016, he correctly predicted a 51% two-party popular vote share for Hillary Clinton.{{Cite news |last=Matthews |first=Dylan |date=17 March 2020 |title="Coronavirus and the 2020 election: A collapsing economy is a disaster for the incumbent" |url=https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/3/17/21175200/trump-economy-reelection-2020-presidential-election-coronavirus |access-date=19 November 2024 |work=Vox}}{{Cite web |last1=Tien |first1=Charles |last2=Lewis-Beck |first2=Michael S. |date=11 January 2017 |title=Evaluating the long-view forecasting models of the 2016 election |url=https://blog.oup.com/2017/01/forecasting-models-2016-election/ |access-date=19 November 2024 |website=Oxford University Press}}{{Cite news |last=Prokop |first=Andrew |date=9 November 2016 |title="Few predicted Trump had a good shot of winning. But political science models did." |url=https://www.vox.com/2016/11/9/13571872/why-donald-trump-won |archive-date= |access-date=19 November 2024 |work=Vox}} Using polls on voter expectations for the winning presidential candidate in the 2024 election, Lewis-Beck forecast a victory by Kamala Harris.{{Cite web |last=Lewis-Beck |first=Debra Leiter and Michael S. |date=2024-10-23 |title=Citizen Forecasting of the 2024 Presidential Election: Last Soundings |url=https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/citizen-forecasting-of-the-2024-presidential-election-last-soundings/ |access-date=2024-11-20 |website=Sabato's Crystal Ball |language=en-US}}

Lewis-Beck resides in Iowa City, Iowa.

Lewis-Beck is fluent in English, French, Spanish, and Italian.

Lewis-Beck writes poetry, lyrics, fiction, and essays. He has two books of poems, Rural Routes and Shorter and Sweeter published by Alexandria Quarterly Press.{{Cite web |title=AQP PUBLICATIONS |url=https://www.alexandriaquarterlymag.com/aqppubs |access-date=2024-11-20 |website=ALEXANDRIA QUARTERLY |language=en-US}}

• Stubager, R., Hansen, K. M., Lewis-Beck, M. S., & Nadeau, R. (2021). The Danish voter: Democratic Ideals and Challenges. University of Michigan Press. {{ISBN|9780472132263}}.
• Nadeau, R., Bélanger, E., Lewis-Beck, M. S., Turgeon, M., Gélineau, F., & Ratto, M. C. (2019). Elecciones Latinoamericanas: Selección y Cambio de Voto. P.I.E-Peter Lang. {{ISBN|9782807609525}}.
• Dassonneville, R., Hooghe, M., & Lewis-Beck, M. S. (Eds.). (2018). Electoral Rules and Electoral Behaviour: The Scope of Effects. Routledge, Taylor & Francis Group. {{ISBN|9780367892586}}.
• Nadeau, R., Bélanger, E., Lewis-Beck, M. S., Turgeon, M., & Gélineau, F. (2017). Latin American Elections: Choice and Change. University of Michigan Press. {{ISBN|9780472130221}}.
• Kritzinger, S., Lewis-Beck, M. S., Nadeau, R., & Zeglovits, E. (2013). The Austrian Voter. Vienna University Press. {{ISBN|978-3847101666}}.
• Lewis-Beck, M. S., Nadeau, R., & Bélanger, E. (2012). French Presidential Elections. Palgrave Macmillan. {{ISBN|978-1-349-33582-4}}.
• Lewis-Beck, M. S., Norpoth, H., Jacoby, W. G., & Weisberg, H. F. (2008). The American Voter Revisited. University of Michigan Press. {{ISBN|9780472050406}}.
• Lewis-Beck, M. S. (2004). The French Voter: Before and After the 2002 Elections. Palgrave Macmillan. {{ISBN|978-1349432325}}.
• Lewis-Beck, M. S. (1995). Data Analysis: An Introduction. Sage Publications. {{ISBN|978-0803957725}}.
• Lewis-Beck, M. S., & Rice, T. W. (1992). Forecasting Elections. CQ Press. {{ISBN|978-0871876003}}.
• Norpoth, H., Lewis-Beck, M. S., & Lafay, J.-D. (1991). Economics and Politics: The Calculus of Support. University of Michigan Press. {{ISBN|978-0472101863}}.
• Lewis-Beck, M. S. (1988). Economics and elections: The Major Western Democracies. University of Michigan Press. {{ISBN|9780472081332}}.
• Berry, W. D., & Lewis-Beck, M. S. (1986). New Directions in Social Science Research: Methods and Applications. Sage Publications. {{ISBN|978-0803922563}}.
• Eulau, H., & Lewis-Beck, M. S. (Eds.). (1985). Economic conditions and electoral outcomes: The United States and Western Europe. Agathon Press. {{ISBN|978-0875860718}}.
• Lewis-Beck, M. S. (1980). Applied Regression: An Introduction. Sage Publications. {{ISBN|978-0803914940}}.

{{Reflist}}

• [https://clas.uiowa.edu/polisci/people/michael-s-lewis-beck Faculty page]
• {{Google Scholar id}}

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Category:Living people

Category:1943 births

Category:American political scientists

Category:Ball State University alumni

Category:University of Michigan alumni

Category:University of Iowa faculty

Category:Political science journal editors