NERD (sabermetrics)

The premise for NERD was developed in Cistulli's piece "Why We Watch" in which he establishes the five reasons that baseball continues to captivate the American imagination from game to game: "Pitching Matchups," "Statistically Notable (or Otherwise Compelling) Players," "Rookies (and Debuts)," "Seasonal Context," and "Quality of Broadcast".{{cite web|url=http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/why-we-watch/|title=Why We Watch|date=29 April 2010 |access-date=2010-11-30|publisher=Fangraphs.com}} Fellow sabermatrician Rob Neyer, who had collaborated with Cistulli on this piece,{{cite web|url=https://www.espn.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/3751/thursday-throneberries-9|title=Thursday Throneberries|access-date=2010-11-30|work=Espn.com|date=27 May 2010 }}{{cite web|url=http://metsminorsreview.libsyn.com/mets-minors-review-volume-16|title=Mets Minors Review Episode 16|access-date=2012-11-15|publisher=Mets Minors Review}} wrote "the only thing missing [...] is a points system that would let us put a number on each game" and on June 2, 2010, Cistulli unveiled the Pitcher NERD formula.

Pitcher NERD tries to determine which pitchers will be the most aesthetically appealing to watch for a baseball fan and is both a historical and a predictive statistic.{{cite web|url=http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/one-night-only-now-with-more-nerd/|title=One Night Only Now with More NERD|date=4 June 2010 |access-date=2010-11-30|publisher=Fangraphs.com}} The formula uses a player's standard deviations from the mean (a weighted z-score{{cite web|url=http://www.ussmariner.com/2010/06/23/a-post-in-five-parts/|title=A post in Five Parts|access-date=2011-02-16|publisher=USS Mariner}}) of the DIPS statistic xFIP (expected Fielding Independent Pitching), swinging strike percentage, overall strike percentage, and the differential between the pitcher's ERA and xFIP to determine a quantitative value for each pitcher.{{cite web|url=http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/strasburg-breaks-nerd/|title=Strasburg Breaks NERD|date=30 June 2010 |access-date=2010-11-30|publisher=Fangraphs.com}}

$p\backslash text\{NERD\}\; =\; (x\; \backslash text\{FIP\}z\; \backslash times\; 2)\; +\; (\backslash text\{SwStrk\}\backslash \%z/2)\; +\; (\backslash text\{Strike\}\backslash \%z\; /\; 2)\; +\; \backslash text\{LUCK\}\; +\; 4.69$

The factor of 4.69 is added to make the number fit on a 0 to 10 scale. While there has been some disagreement on the calculation of Cistulli's luck component,{{cite web|url=http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/blog_article/why-you-cant-subtract-fip-from-era/|title=Why You Can't Subtract FIP from ERA|date=15 August 2009 |access-date=2010-11-30|publisher=The Hardball Times}} the general consensus among sports writers seems to be that a player with a below-average ERA and an above-average xFIP has been "unlucky".{{cite web|url=http://www.ghostrunneronfirst.com/2010/06/getting-nerdy-with-jays-starters.html|title=Getting nerdy|access-date=2010-11-30|publisher=Ghost Runner on First}}{{cite web|url=http://itsaboutthemoney.net/archives/2010/09/12/joba-and-fip/|title=Joba and FIP|access-date=2010-11-30|publisher=It's About the Money}}{{cite web|url=https://www.espn.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons/100402|title=Finally on board the sabermetrics revolution|access-date=2010-11-30|work=Espn.com}}

Following the model of his Pitching NERD, Team NERD tries to give a quantitative value to the aesthetic value of each of the 30 baseball teams. For factors it accounts for "Age," "Park-Adjusted weighted Runs Above Average (wRAA)," "Park-Adjusted Home Run per Fly Ball (HR/FB)," "Team Speed," "Bullpen Strength," "Team Defense," "Luck" (Base Runs – Actual Runs Scored), and "Payroll".

$t\backslash text\{NERD\}\; =\; \backslash text\{AGE\}z\; \backslash times\; 2\; +\; \backslash text\{BAT\}z\; +\; \backslash text\{HR\}/\backslash text\{FB\}z\; +\; (\backslash text\{SBA\}z\; +\; \backslash text\{SBR\}z\; +\; \backslash text\{XBT\}z)\backslash times\; .33\; +\; \backslash text\{BL\}z\; +\; \backslash text\{UZR\}z\; +\; \backslash text\{PAY\}z\; +\; \backslash text\{LUCK\}$

In an interview, Cistulli admitted that there is a disconnect between the Tampa Bay Rays high tNERD rating and low attendance saying that he is considered adding a "park-adjustment" to his formula which would reflect either the stadium itself or "attendance relative to the stadium's capacity"{{cite web|url=http://www.draysbay.com/2010/11/10/1804861/a-q-a-with-carson-cistulli|title=A Q&A with Carson Cistulli|date=10 November 2010 |access-date=2010-11-30|publisher=Draysbay.com}} but overall reception of this statistic has been positive{{cite web|url=http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/34253/mlb-insider-rob-neyer|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100905025827/http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/34253/mlb-insider-rob-neyer|url-status=dead|archive-date=September 5, 2010|title=Chat with Rob Neyer|access-date=2010-11-30|work=Espn.com}}{{cite web|url=http://jfwiii.net/2010/08/23/baseruns-spreadsheet-and-team-nerd/|title=Baseruns Spreadsheets and team NERD|date=23 August 2010 |access-date=2010-11-30|publisher=Jfwiii.net}} and Fangraphs started reporting Team NERD in Cistulli's "One Night Only" columns beginning August 23, 2010.{{cite web|url=http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/one-night-only-now-with-team-nerd/|title=One Night Only: Now with Team NERD|date=23 August 2010 |access-date=2010-11-30|publisher=Fangraphs.com}}

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