Next Irish general election#Opinion polls

The 34th Dáil first met on 18 December 2024. Electoral law provides that the "same Dáil shall not continue for a longer period than five years from the date of its first meeting".{{cite ISB|year=1992|number=23|section=33|stitle=Maximum duration of Dáil|name=Electoral Act 1992|date=5 November 1992|access-date=8 June 2021}} It must therefore be dissolved no later than 17 December 2029. The taoiseach may advise the president to dissolve at any time. If a taoiseach has ceased to retain the support of the majority of the Dáil, the president may in their absolute discretion refuse to dissolve the Dáil. To date, no president has refused to dissolve the Dáil.

When the Dáil is dissolved, the Clerk of the Dáil must issue a writ of election to the returning officer for each constituency.{{cite ISB|year=1992|number=23|section=39|stitle=Issue and return of writs|name=Electoral Act 1992|date=5 November 1992|access-date=8 June 2021}} The election must take place on a date set by the Minister for Housing, Local Government and Heritage 18 to 25 days (disregarding any excluded day, being Sundays, public holidays and Good Friday) after the writs have been issued.{{cite ISB|year=1992|number=23|section=96|stitle=Times of poll|name=Electoral Act 1992|date=5 November 1992|access-date=8 June 2021}}; {{cite ISB|year=2001|number=38|section=23|stitle=Amendment of section 96 of Principal Act|name=Electoral (Amendment) Act 2001|date=24 October 2001|access-date=8 June 2021}}{{cite web|title=Dáil Éireann|url=https://www.citizensinformation.ie/en/government-in-ireland/houses-of-the-oireachtas/dail-eireann/|website=Citizens Information|date=30 August 2023|access-date=2 July 2024|archive-date=18 March 2024|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240318082305/https://www.citizensinformation.ie/en/government-in-ireland/houses-of-the-oireachtas/dail-eireann/|url-status=live}}{{cite web|url=https://www.irishstatutebook.ie/eli/cons/en/html#article16|website=Irish Statute Book|title=Constitution of Ireland|date=January 2020|access-date=2 July 2024|archive-date=23 April 2022|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220423200419/https://www.irishstatutebook.ie/eli/cons/en/html#article16|url-status=live}}

{{main|Single transferable vote}}

There are currently 174 TDs returned in 43 Dáil constituencies of between three and five seats each. The Electoral Commission will be required to review the size of the Dáil and the arrangement of constituencies after the 2027 census.

Under the system of single transferable vote (STV), each voter may mark any number of the candidates in order of preference. The quota is determined at the first count in each constituency by dividing the number of valid ballots by one more than the number of seats (for example, a quarter of the valid ballots in a three-seat constituency, a fifth of those in a four-seat constituency, and a sixth of those in a five-seat constituency) and then adding one vote. Any candidate reaching or exceeding the quota is elected.{{cite report |title=A Guide to Ireland's PR-STV Voting System |publisher=Ireland Department of Housing, Planning & Local Government |date=November 2018 |url=https://assets.gov.ie/111110/03f591cc-6312-4b21-8193-d4150169480e.pdf}}

If in the first count fewer candidates reach the quota than the number of seats to be filled, if any successful candidates have more votes than the quota, their surplus is distributed to remaining candidates based on the next usable marked preference on the ballot papers. If it still happens that fewer candidates have reached the quota than the number of seats to be filled, the last-placed candidate is excluded from the count and those ballot papers are transferred to the next usable marked preference. This is repeated until sufficient candidates have reached the quota to fill the available seats, or where a seat remains to be filled in a constituency and no candidate is capable of achieving a quota as there is nobody left to eliminate for a distribution, then the highest place candidate, even if not having quota, is deemed elected.{{cite web|url=http://www.ipu.org/parline-e/reports/2153_B.htm|title=Dáil Éireann (House of Representatives)|work=Inter-Parliamentary Union|access-date=24 March 2019|archive-date=7 March 2016|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160307215059/http://www.ipu.org/parline-e/reports/2153_B.htm|url-status=live}}; {{cite web|url=http://www.irishstatutebook.ie/eli/1992/act/23/enacted/en/html|title=Electoral Act 1992 [Part XIX]|date=5 November 1992|access-date=15 January 2020|website=Irish Statute Book|archive-date=14 January 2020|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200114042407/http://www.irishstatutebook.ie/eli/1992/act/23/enacted/en/html|url-status=live}}

The Ceann Comhairle (Verona Murphy, {{as of|since=y|lc=y|December 2024}}) immediately before the dissolution of the 34th Dáil will automatically be deemed to be elected a member of the 35th Dáil, unless she decides not to seek re-election. This is provided for under the Constitution and electoral law.{{cite ISB|year=1992|number=23|section=36|name=Electoral Act 1992|stitle=Re-election of outgoing Chairman of Dáil|date=5 November 1992|access-date=16 June 2020|archive-date=8 December 2015|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20151208044548/http://www.irishstatutebook.ie/eli/1992/act/23/section/36/enacted/en/htm}}

File:Ireland 2030 polls.svg

=== Polls ===

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{{Irish elections}}

Category:2020s in Irish politics

Category:Future elections in Europe

Category:General elections in the Republic of Ireland

Irish general election