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Obama coalition

{{short description|Voting blocs supporting Barack Obama}}

File:Barack Obama and supporters 5, February 4, 2008.jpg shaking hands with supporters in 2008]]

{{Barack Obama series|expanded=Presidential campaigns}}

The Obama coalition was the combination of various voting blocs that supported the candidacy and presidency of Barack Obama. It consisted primarily of racial minorities, along with women and young voters.{{Cite web |last1=Siders |first1=David |last2=Cadelago |first2=Christopher |last3=Barrón-López |first3=Laura |date=2019 |title=To defeat Trump, Dems rethink the Obama coalition formula |url=https://www.politico.com/news/2019/11/25/race-identity-democrats-2020-electability-072959 |access-date=2022-03-04 |website=POLITICO |language=en}} It allowed for high vote share among cities and suburbs, as well as among voters that self-described as moderate.{{Cite web |last1=Smith |first1=Ben |last2=Martin |first2=Jonathan |title=Why Obama won |url=https://www.politico.com/story/2008/11/why-obama-won-015301 |access-date=2022-03-04 |website=POLITICO |date=5 November 2008 |language=en}} The coalition formed in 2007 and 2008 as Obama campaigned for the presidency. During the 2008 election, the strength of the coalition gave Obama 53% of the vote. In 2012, he won reelection with 51% of the vote along similar demographic lines.{{Cite magazine |last=Cassidy |first=John |date=2012-11-06 |title="Obama Coalition" Carries Him to Big Victory |url=http://www.newyorker.com/news/john-cassidy/obama-coalition-carries-him-to-big-victory |access-date=2022-03-04 |magazine=The New Yorker |language=en-US}} This made Obama the first Democratic president since Franklin D. Roosevelt to win the majority of the popular vote in multiple elections.

The weaknesses of the coalition became apparent during the two midterm elections that took place during Obama's presidency. During the 2010 midterms, significant portions of the coalition failed to turn out or defected to the Republican Party.{{Cite news |last1=Rutenberg |first1=Jim |last2=Thee-Brenan |first2=Megan |date=2010-10-27 |title=Obama Coalition Is Fraying, Poll Finds |language=en-US |work=The New York Times |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/28/us/politics/28poll.html |access-date=2022-03-04 |issn=0362-4331}}{{Cite web |last=Best |first=Samuel |date=2010 |title=Why Democrats Lost the House to Republicans |url=https://www.cbsnews.com/news/why-democrats-lost-the-house-to-republicans/ |access-date=2022-03-04 |website=www.cbsnews.com |language=en-US}} Similar results occurred in the 2014 midterms.{{Cite web |last1=Seitz-Wald |first1=Alex |last2=Lee |first2=Trymaine |date=2014 |title=The curse of the Obama coalition |url=https://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/the-curse-the-obama-coalition-msna452431 |access-date=2022-03-04 |website=MSNBC.com |language=en}} Hillary Clinton was described as attempting to continue the Obama coalition in order to win the presidential election in 2016,{{Cite news |last=Gearan |first=Anne |date=2015 |title=Clinton is banking on the Obama coalition to win |newspaper=The Washington Post |url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/running-to-the-left-hillary-clinton-is-banking-on-the-obama-coalition-to-win/2015/05/17/33b7844a-fb28-11e4-9ef4-1bb7ce3b3fb7_story.html}} with her loss to Donald Trump marking a failure to maintain the coalition.{{Cite web |last=Bailey |first=Issac |date=2016-11-09 |title=Is the Obama coalition finished? |url=https://www.cnn.com/2016/11/09/opinions/whered-the-obama-coalition-go-bailey/index.html |access-date=2022-03-04 |website=CNN |language=en}}{{Cite news |last=Cohn |first=Nate |date=2016-12-23 |title=How the Obama Coalition Crumbled, Leaving an Opening for Trump |language=en-US |work=The New York Times |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/23/upshot/how-the-obama-coalition-crumbled-leaving-an-opening-for-trump.html |access-date=2022-03-04 |issn=0362-4331}}

During the 2020 Democratic Party presidential debates, Kamala Harris argued that it was necessary to "rebuild the Obama coalition" for the Democratic Party to win the presidential election. After receiving the Democratic nomination, Obama's former Vice President Joe Biden was described as requiring a new coalition due to shifts in voting patterns over the previous years; the white working-class had moved away from the coalition while women aligned with it in stronger numbers. Shifts had also taken place among suburban and nonwhite voters.{{Cite web |last=Seitz-Wald |first=Alex |date=2020 |title=Obama had a coalition. Biden built a new one and here's how it's different. |url=https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/obama-had-coalition-biden-built-new-one-here-s-how-n1245431 |access-date=2022-03-04 |website=NBC News |language=en}} In 2020, Biden won the presidential election with the same voting blocs as the Obama coalition, defeating incumbent president Donald Trump with 51% of the vote.{{Cite web |title=Biden coalition built on broad but unstable foundation |url=https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/10/biden-coalition-unstable-foundation-435208 |access-date=2022-07-11 |website=POLITICO |date=10 November 2020 |language=en}}

In 2024, the coalition was claimed to be largely fallen apart as working class of all races had moved away from the coalition, causing Biden's Vice President Kamala Harris to lose the presidential election and the popular vote to former president Donald Trump.{{Cite news |last=Klein |first=Ezra |date=13 November 2024 |title=The End of the Obama Coalition |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/13/opinion/obama-ezra-klein-podcast-michael-lind.html |work=The New York Times}}{{Cite web |title=Requiem for the Obama Coalition |url=https://jacobin.com/2024/11/obama-democrats-2024-election-race |access-date=2024-12-04 |website=jacobin.com |language=en-US}} Nate Cohn of The New York Times stated that Trump had made larger gains with racial minorities than White voters without college degrees compared to the 2012 presidential election (the last pre-Trump election), with Democratic gains being mainly just among White voters with college degrees.{{Cite web|url=https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/25/upshot/democrats-trump-working-class.html|title=How Democrats Lost Their Base and their Message|quote=Donald Trump's populist pitch bumped Democrats off their traditional place in American politics.|website=The New York Times|first1=Nate|last1=Cohn|date=November 25, 2024|access-date=November 25, 2024}}

Vote share

class="wikitable sortable"

! colspan="4" |Obama vote share by demographic subgroup

Demographic

subgroup

!2008{{cite news |title=National Exit Poll |publisher=CNN |url=http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=USP00p1 |access-date=January 28, 2013}}

!2012{{cite news |title=President Exit Polls |work=The New York Times |url=http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/results/president/exit-polls |access-date=January 27, 2013}}

!2008 to 2012

Swing

Total vote

| style="text-align:right; background:#b0ceff;" |53

| style="text-align:right; background:#b0ceff;" |51

| -2

Ideology

!

!

!

Liberals

| style="text-align:right; background:#b0ceff;" |89

| style="text-align:right; background:#b0ceff;" |86

| -3

Moderates

| style="text-align:right; background:#b0ceff;" |60

| style="text-align:right; background:#b0ceff;" |56

| -4

Conservatives

| style="text-align:right; background:#f0f0ff;" |20

| style="text-align:right; background:#f0f0ff;" |17

| -3

Party

!

!

!

Democrats

| style="text-align:right; background:#b0ceff;" |89

| style="text-align:right; background:#b0ceff;" |92

|3

Republicans

| style="text-align:right; background:#f0f0ff;" |9

| style="text-align:right; background:#f0f0ff;" |6

| -3

Independents

| style="text-align:right; background:#b0ceff;" |52

| style="text-align:right; background:#f0f0ff;" |45

| -7

Gender

!

!

!

Men

| style="text-align:right; background:#f0f0ff;" |49

| style="text-align:right; background:#f0f0ff;" |45

| -4

Women

| style="text-align:right; background:#b0ceff;" |56

| style="text-align:right; background:#b0ceff;" |55

| -1

Marital status

!

!

!

Married

| style="text-align:right; background:#f0f0ff;" |47

| style="text-align:right; background:#f0f0ff;" |42

| -5

Unmarried

| style="text-align:right; background:#b0ceff;" |65

| style="text-align:right; background:#b0ceff;" |62

| -3

Race

!

!

!

White

| style="text-align:right; background:#f0f0ff;" |43

| style="text-align:right; background:#f0f0ff;" |39

| -4

Black

| style="text-align:right; background:#b0ceff;" |95

| style="text-align:right; background:#b0ceff;" |93

| -2

Asian

| style="text-align:right; background:#b0ceff;" |62

| style="text-align:right; background:#b0ceff;" |73

|11

Other

| style="text-align:right; background:#b0ceff;" |66

| style="text-align:right; background:#b0ceff;" |58

| -8

Hispanic

| style="text-align:right; background:#b0ceff;" |67

| style="text-align:right; background:#b0ceff;" |71

|4

Religion

!

!

!

Protestant

| style="text-align:right; background:#f0f0ff;" |45

| style="text-align:right; background:#f0f0ff;" |42

| -3

Catholic

| style="text-align:right; background:#b0ceff;" |54

| style="text-align:right; background:#b0ceff;" |50

| -4

Jewish

| style="text-align:right; background:#b0ceff;" |78

| style="text-align:right; background:#b0ceff;" |69

| -9

Other

| style="text-align:right; background:#b0ceff;" |73

| style="text-align:right; background:#b0ceff;" |74

|1

None

| style="text-align:right; background:#b0ceff;" |75

| style="text-align:right; background:#b0ceff;" |70

| -5

Religious service attendance

!

!

!

More than weekly

| style="text-align:right; background:#f0f0ff;" |43

| style="text-align:right; background:#f0f0ff;" |36

| -7

Weekly

| style="text-align:right; background:#f0f0ff;" |43

| style="text-align:right; background:#f0f0ff;" |41

| -2

Monthly

| style="text-align:right; background:#b0ceff;" |53

| style="text-align:right; background:#b0ceff;" |55

| -2

A few times a year

| style="text-align:right; background:#b0ceff;" |59

| style="text-align:right; background:#b0ceff;" |56

| -3

Never

| style="text-align:right; background:#b0ceff;" |67

| style="text-align:right; background:#b0ceff;" |62

| -5

White evangelical or born-again Christian?

!

!

!

White evangelical or born-again Christian

| style="text-align:right; background:#f0f0ff;" |24

| style="text-align:right; background:#f0f0ff;" |21

| -3

Everyone else

| style="text-align:right; background:#b0ceff;" |62

| style="text-align:right; background:#b0ceff;" |60

| -2

Age

!

!

!

18–24 years old

| style="text-align:right; background:#b0ceff;" |66

| style="text-align:right; background:#b0ceff;" |60

| -6

25–29 years old

| style="text-align:right; background:#b0ceff;" |66

| style="text-align:right; background:#b0ceff;" |60

| -6

30–39 years old

| style="text-align:right; background:#b0ceff;" |54

| style="text-align:right; background:#b0ceff;" |55

|1

40–49 years old

| style="text-align:right; background:#f0f0ff;" |49

| style="text-align:right; background:#f0f0ff;" |48

| -1

50–64 years old

| style="text-align:right; background:#b0ceff;" |50

| style="text-align:right; background:#f0f0ff;" |47

| -3

65 and older

| style="text-align:right; background:#f0f0ff;" |45

| style="text-align:right; background:#f0f0ff;" |44

| -1

Age by race

!

!

!

Whites 18–29 years old

| style="text-align:right; background:#b0ceff;" |54

| style="text-align:right; background:#f0f0ff;" |44

| -10

Whites 30–44 years old

| style="text-align:right; background:#f0f0ff;" |41

| style="text-align:right; background:#f0f0ff;" |38

| -3

Whites 45–64 years old

| style="text-align:right; background:#f0f0ff;" |42

| style="text-align:right; background:#f0f0ff;" |38

| -4

Whites 65 and older

| style="text-align:right; background:#f0f0ff;" |40

| style="text-align:right; background:#f0f0ff;" |39

| -1

Blacks 18–29 years old

| style="text-align:right; background:#b0ceff;" |95

| style="text-align:right; background:#b0ceff;" |91

| -4

Blacks 30–44 years old

| style="text-align:right; background:#b0ceff;" |96

| style="text-align:right; background:#b0ceff;" |94

| -2

Blacks 45–64 years old

| style="text-align:right; background:#b0ceff;" |96

| style="text-align:right; background:#b0ceff;" |93

| -3

Blacks 65 and older

| style="text-align:right; background:#b0ceff;" |94

| style="text-align:right; background:#b0ceff;" |93

| -1

Latinos 18–29 years old

| style="text-align:right; background:#b0ceff;" |76

| style="text-align:right; background:#b0ceff;" |74

| -2

Latinos 30–44 years old

| style="text-align:right; background:#b0ceff;" |63

| style="text-align:right; background:#b0ceff;" |71

|8

Latinos 45–64 years old

| style="text-align:right; background:#b0ceff;" |58

| style="text-align:right; background:#b0ceff;" |68

|10

Latinos 65 and older

| style="text-align:right; background:#b0ceff;" |68

| style="text-align:right; background:#b0ceff;" |65

| -3

Others

| style="text-align:right; background:#b0ceff;" |64

| style="text-align:right; background:#b0ceff;" |67

|3

Sexual orientation

!

!

!

LGBT

| style="text-align:right; background:#b0ceff;" |70

| style="text-align:right; background:#b0ceff;" |76

|6

Heterosexual

| style="text-align:right; background:#b0ceff;" |53

| style="text-align:right; background:#f0f0ff;" |49

| -4

Education

!

!

!

Not a high school graduate

| style="text-align:right; background:#b0ceff;" |63

| style="text-align:right; background:#b0ceff;" |64

|1

High school graduate

| style="text-align:right; background:#b0ceff;" |52

| style="text-align:right; background:#b0ceff;" |51

| -1

Some college education

| style="text-align:right; background:#b0ceff;" |51

| style="text-align:right; background:#f0f0ff;" |49

| -2

College graduate

| style="text-align:right; background:#b0ceff;" |50

| style="text-align:right; background:#f0f0ff;" |47

| -3

Postgraduate education

| style="text-align:right; background:#b0ceff;" |58

| style="text-align:right; background:#b0ceff;" |55

| -5

Union households

!

!

!

Union

| style="text-align:right; background:#b0ceff;" |59

| style="text-align:right; background:#b0ceff;" |58

| -1

Non-union

| style="text-align:right; background:#b0ceff;" |51

| style="text-align:right; background:#f0f0ff;" |49

| -2

Issue regarded as most important

!

!

!

Economy

| style="text-align:right; background:#b0ceff;" |53

| style="text-align:right; background:#f0f0ff;" |47

| -6

Health care

| style="text-align:right; background:#b0ceff;" |73

| style="text-align:right; background:#b0ceff;" |75

|2

Region

!

!

!

Northeast

| style="text-align:right; background:#b0ceff;" |59

| style="text-align:right; background:#b0ceff;" |59

|0

Midwest

| style="text-align:right; background:#b0ceff;" |54

| style="text-align:right; background:#b0ceff;" |50

| -4

South

| style="text-align:right; background:#f0f0ff;" |45

| style="text-align:right; background:#f0f0ff;" |46

|1

West

| style="text-align:right; background:#b0ceff;" |57

| style="text-align:right; background:#b0ceff;" |54

| -3

See also

References

{{Barack Obama}}

{{Hillary Clinton}}

{{Joe Biden}}

{{Kamala Harris}}

{{Portal bar|2000s|2010s|Liberalism|Modern history|Politics|United States

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