Positive tipping points

File:Fig 4.5.1 Overview of the cross-system interactions that can create positive tipping cascades.pngPositive tipping points occur when interventions, often small relative to the scale of the system, amplify through reinforcing feedbacks. These feedbacks can include economic incentives, technological learning curves, network effects, or social contagion, that lead to rapid and widespread adoption of new practices or technologies. For example, the rapid decline in the cost of renewable energy technologies has triggered positive tipping points in energy markets, making clean energy more competitive and accelerating its deployment.{{Cite book |url=https://report-2023.global-tipping-points.org/ |title=The Global Tipping Points Report 2023 |publisher=University of Exeter |year=2023 |editor-last=Lenton |editor-first=T.M. |publication-place=Exeter, UK |pages=278–353 |editor-last2=Armstrong McKay |editor-first2=D.I. |editor-last3=Loriani |editor-first3=S. |editor-last4=Abrams |editor-first4=J.F. |editor-last5=Lade |editor-first5=S.J. |editor-last6=Donges |editor-first6=J.F. |editor-last7=Milkoreit |editor-first7=M. |editor-last8=Powell |editor-first8=T. |editor-last9=Smith |editor-first9=S.R.}}

One positive tipping point can trigger others, creating a domino effect of positive change known as a tipping cascade.{{Cite journal |last=Lenton |first=Timothy M. |date=2020-01-27 |title=Tipping positive change |journal=Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences |volume=375 |issue=1794 |pages=20190123 |doi=10.1098/rstb.2019.0123 |pmc=7017777 |pmid=31983337}} There is also a possibility that positive tipping can result in unintended negative consequences, and that there are 'winners' (groups that benefit) and 'losers' (groups that bear the cost) of positive tipping points.{{Cite journal |last1=Pereira |first1=Laura M. |last2=Smith |first2=Steven R. |last3=Gifford |first3=Lauren |last4=Newell |first4=Peter |last5=Smith |first5=Ben |last6=Villasante |first6=Sebastian |last7=Achieng |first7=Therezah |last8=Castro |first8=Azucena |last9=Constantino |first9=Sara M. |last10=Ghadiali |first10=Ashish |last11=Vogel |first11=Coleen |last12=Zimm |first12=Caroline |date=2023-07-11 |title=Risks, Ethics and Justice in the governance of positive tipping points |url=https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2023/egusphere-2023-1454/ |journal=EGUsphere |language=English |pages=1–27 |doi=10.5194/egusphere-2023-1454|doi-access=free }} Not all systems have tipping points.

Positive tipping points are driven by self-reinforcing ('positive') feedbacks that drive change. To support a positive tipping point, these positive feedbacks should be supported, while the 'negative' feedbacks which maintain the status quo and slow tipping down can be dampened.

For example, positive feedback loops like economies of scale and learning through experience have driven down the cost of solar PV and wind energy to below that of coal. As a result, the majority of new power generation added worldwide in 2022 was from renewable sources.{{Cite web |last=IEA |date=2022-12-06 |title=Renewables 2022 – Analysis |url=https://www.iea.org/reports/renewables-2022 |access-date=2025-05-30 |website=IEA |language=en-GB}}

Examples of negative feedbacks include social conformity and habits that make it difficult for people to adopt to more sustainable lifestyles,{{Cite journal |last1=Rosenbloom |first1=Daniel |last2=Meadowcroft |first2=James |last3=Cashore |first3=Benjamin |date=2019-04-01 |title=Stability and climate policy? Harnessing insights on path dependence, policy feedback, and transition pathways |url=https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214629618302755 |journal=Energy Research & Social Science |volume=50 |pages=168–178 |doi=10.1016/j.erss.2018.12.009 |bibcode=2019ERSS...50..168R |issn=2214-6296}}{{Cite journal |last1=Constantino |first1=Sara M. |last2=Sparkman |first2=Gregg |last3=Kraft-Todd |first3=Gordon T. |last4=Bicchieri |first4=Cristina |last5=Centola |first5=Damon |last6=Shell-Duncan |first6=Bettina |last7=Vogt |first7=Sonja |last8=Weber |first8=Elke U. |date=2022-10-01 |title=Scaling Up Change: A Critical Review and Practical Guide to Harnessing Social Norms for Climate Action |url=https://doi.org/10.1177/15291006221105279 |journal=Psychological Science in the Public Interest |language=EN |volume=23 |issue=2 |pages=50–97 |doi=10.1177/15291006221105279 |pmid=36227765 |issn=1529-1006}} and economic barriers to change like high costs and supply chain disruptions.

File:University ave bike lane.jpgs is an example of an enabling condition for normalising cycling for transport.]]

Positive tipping points typically require preparation to create favorable conditions before the actual tipping can occur. This preparation involves weakening the negative feedbacks that maintain the current state while simultaneously strengthening reinforcing positive feedbacks that can amplify desired change. Once these enabling conditions are established, even a small additional change or intervention can trigger the self-reinforcing processes that drive the system toward a new, more desirable state. For example, changing social norms like fossil fuel use becoming socially unacceptable,{{Cite journal |last=Green |first=Fergus |date=2018-09-01 |title=Anti-fossil fuel norms |url=https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-2134-6 |journal=Climatic Change |language=en |volume=150 |issue=1 |pages=103–116 |doi=10.1007/s10584-017-2134-6 |bibcode=2018ClCh..150..103G |issn=1573-1480}} or policy changes supporting investments in bike lanes create enabling conditions for positive tipping points.{{Cite journal |last1=Nyborg |first1=Karine |last2=Anderies |first2=John M. |last3=Dannenberg |first3=Astrid |last4=Lindahl |first4=Therese |last5=Schill |first5=Caroline |last6=Schlüter |first6=Maja |last7=Adger |first7=W. Neil |last8=Arrow |first8=Kenneth J. |last9=Barrett |first9=Scott |last10=Carpenter |first10=Stephen |last11=Chapin |first11=F. Stuart |last12=Crépin |first12=Anne-Sophie |last13=Daily |first13=Gretchen |last14=Ehrlich |first14=Paul |last15=Folke |first15=Carl |date=2016-10-07 |title=Social norms as solutions |url=https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aaf8317 |journal=Science |volume=354 |issue=6308 |pages=42–43 |doi=10.1126/science.aaf8317|pmid=27846488 |bibcode=2016Sci...354...42N }}

In practice, positive tipping points are usually driven by interactions between technology, behaviour, politics, and economics.{{Cite journal |last1=Geels |first1=Frank W. |last2=Ayoub |first2=Martina |date=2023-08-01 |title=A socio-technical transition perspective on positive tipping points in climate change mitigation: Analysing seven interacting feedback loops in offshore wind and electric vehicles acceleration |url=https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162523003244 |journal=Technological Forecasting and Social Change |volume=193 |pages=122639 |doi=10.1016/j.techfore.2023.122639 |issn=0040-1625}}

Unlike negative tipping points that are typically to be avoided, positive tipping points can be deliberately sought and triggered for beneficial outcomes. Triggers can be deliberate actions timed strategically such as a social innovation, technological innovation, an investment or a policy intervention, or they can be incidental events, like a natural disaster.{{Cite journal |last1=Lenton |first1=Timothy M. |last2=Benson |first2=Scarlett |last3=Smith |first3=Talia |last4=Ewer |first4=Theodora |last5=Lanel |first5=Victor |last6=Petykowski |first6=Elizabeth |last7=Powell |first7=Thomas W. R. |last8=Abrams |first8=Jesse F. |last9=Blomsma |first9=Fenna |last10=Sharpe |first10=Simon |date=10 January 2022 |title=Operationalising positive tipping points towards global sustainability |url=https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/global-sustainability/article/operationalising-positive-tipping-points-towards-global-sustainability/8E318C85A8E462AEC26913EC43FE60B1 |journal=Global Sustainability |language=en |volume=5 |pages=e1 |doi=10.1017/sus.2021.30 |bibcode=2022GlSus...5E...1L |issn=2059-4798}}

File:Fig 4.3.4 ICEV Market Share in the Europe, Asia and the USA.png

The concept of positive tipping points is particularly relevant in climate policy and sustainability transitions. By identifying leverage points, such as strategic investments, regulatory changes, or public campaigns, policymakers and stakeholders can trigger self-sustaining transitions toward low-carbon systems. Positive tipping points are also observed in social systems, where shifts in public opinion or behavior can cascade rapidly once a critical mass is reached.

For example, targeted actions have created economies of scale that are now propelling the rapid uptake of renewable energy worldwide, which has reached or exceeded cost parity with fossil fuel power generation. Electric vehicles appear to have reached a positive tipping point toward mass adoption. This is driven by factors such as lower battery costs and increased government incentives. EVs are poised to rapidly capture over 50% of the market share in Europe and Asia.{{Cite journal |last1=Sharpe |first1=Simon |last2=and Lenton |first2=Timothy M. |date=2021-04-21 |title=Upward-scaling tipping cascades to meet climate goals: plausible grounds for hope |url=https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2020.1870097 |journal=Climate Policy |volume=21 |issue=4 |pages=421–433 |doi=10.1080/14693062.2020.1870097 |bibcode=2021CliPo..21..421S |issn=1469-3062}}{{Cite report |url=https://ore.exeter.ac.uk/repository/handle/10871/129774 |title=Evidence for a global electric vehicle tipping point |last1=Lam |first1=A. |last2=Mercure |first2=J.-F. |date=2022-05-26 |publisher=Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter |language=en}}

The reintroduction of gray wolves to the Yellowstone National Park can be considered an example of triggering a positive ecological tipping point. The wolves' predation on elk, which had been overgrazing the landscape, triggered a trophic cascade, a self-reinforcing process that improved biodiversity and transformed the local ecosystem.{{Cite journal |last1=Ripple |first1=William J. |last2=Beschta |first2=Robert L. |date=January 2012 |title=Trophic cascades in Yellowstone: The first 15 years after wolf reintroduction |url=https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0006320711004046 |journal=Biological Conservation |volume=145 |issue=1 |pages=205–213 |doi=10.1016/j.biocon.2011.11.005 |bibcode=2012BCons.145..205R |issn=0006-3207}}

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Category:Climate change feedbacks

Category:Climatology