Progress studies

Following publication of the key article, Cowen and Collison were hosted by Mark Zuckerberg for a podcast.{{cite web |last1=Zuckerberg |first1=Mark |title=A Conversation with Mark Zuckerberg, Patrick Collison and Tyler Cowen |url=https://about.fb.com/news/2019/11/a-conversation-with-mark-zuckerberg-patrick-collison-and-tyler-cowen/ |website=Facebook|date=25 November 2019 }} Around the same time, Jason Crawford committed full-time to his popular blog "The Roots of Progress", calling for "a clearer understanding of the nature of progress, its causes, its value and importance, how we can manage its costs and risks, and ultimately how we can accelerate progress while ensuring that it is beneficial to humanity."{{cite web |last1=Crawford |first1=Jason |title=The Roots of Progress is now a nonprofit organization |url=https://rootsofprogress.org/nonprofit-announcement |website=The Roots of Progress |date=23 August 2021 |access-date=30 May 2023}} Roots of Progress has since grown into a research institute, awarding grants to fellows.{{Cite web| last = Bailey| first = Ronald| title = Progress, rediscovered| work = Reason.com| access-date = 2025-01-13| date = 2024-04-06| url = https://reason.com/2024/04/06/progress-rediscovered/}} Elsewhere, the online magazine Works in Progress was established by Sam Bowman, Saloni Dattani, Ben Southwood and Nick Whitaker in 2020, "dedicated to sharing new and underrated ideas to improve the world".{{cite web |title=Works In Progress, 'About' |url=https://worksinprogress.co/about/}} The publication was later purchased by Stripe Press in 2022.{{Cite web| last = Progress| first = Works in| title = Works in Progress is now part of Stripe| access-date = 2024-01-08| date = 2022-09-05| url = https://www.worksinprogress.news/p/works-in-progress-has-joined-stripe}} Alec Stapp and Caleb Watney founded the Institute for Progress think tank in 2021, a "non-partisan research and advocacy organization dedicated to accelerating scientific, technological, and industrial progress while safeguarding humanity's future."{{Cite web| title = Caleb Watney and Alec Stapp, co-CEOs of the Institute for Progress, named Future Perfect 50 finalists - Vox| date = 29 November 2023| access-date = 2024-01-08| url = https://www.vox.com/23942571/alec-stapp-caleb-watney-ceo-institute-for-progress-innovation-future-perfect-50-2023}}

The emerging field has influenced broader political discourse, notably in the United States of America. In response to Cowen and Collison's article, New York Times columnist Ezra Klein wrote: "The questions animating progress studies aren't mere academic exercises; they are central to understanding how we can bring about a better future for all."{{cite news |last1=Klein |first1=Ezra |title=We Know Shockingly Little About What Makes Humanity Prosper |work=The New York Times |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/27/opinion/ezra-klein-podcast-patrick-collison.html |access-date=30 May 2023 |agency=New York Times |date=27 September 2022}} In a subsequent article about supply-side progressivism, Klein wrote that progressive politics "requires a movement that takes innovation as seriously as it takes affordability."{{cite news |last1=Klein |first1=Ezra |title=The Economic Mistake the Left Is Finally Confronting |work=The New York Times |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/19/opinion/supply-side-progressivism.html |access-date=30 May 2023 |agency=New York Times |date=19 September 2021}}

Jason Crawford, founder of the Roots of Progress Institute, has said that "Progress is anything that helps human beings live better lives: longer, happier, healthier, in mind, body, and spirit."{{cite web |last1=Kelsey |first1=Piper |title=How Does Progress Happen |url=https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22652782/roots-of-progress-jason-crawford |website=Vox.com |date=25 September 2021 |access-date=30 May 2023}} Humans have experienced unprecedented progress over the last century as measured by the proportion of people living in extreme poverty, life expectancy, education, and the amount of leisure time people have.{{Cite web| last = Matthews| first = Dylan| title = 23 charts and maps that show the world is getting much, much better| work = Vox| access-date = 2025-03-24| date = 2014-11-24| url = https://www.vox.com/2014/11/24/7272929/global-poverty-health-crime-literacy-good-news}}{{Cite news| issn = 0362-4331| last = Bakewell| first = Sarah| title = Steven Pinker Continues to See the Glass Half Full| work = The New York Times| access-date = 2024-01-19| date = 2018-03-02| url = https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/02/books/review/steven-pinker-enlightenment-now.html}}{{Cite news| issn = 1091-2339| last = Chotiner| first = Isaac| title = Is the World Actually Getting ... Better?| work = Slate| access-date = 2024-01-19| date = 2018-02-20| url = https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/02/steven-pinker-argues-the-world-is-a-safer-healthier-place-in-his-new-book-enlightenment-now.html}} However, according to Our World in Data, over 90% of people think the world is getting worse or staying the same.{{cite journal |last1=Roser |first1=Max |title=The short history of global living conditions and why it matters that we know it |url=https://ourworldindata.org/a-history-of-global-living-conditions |journal=Our World in Data|date=13 November 2023 }} Progress studies advocates believe that the world has gotten better, while also believing that there is a lot of room for improvement, and that humanity should continue to strive for an even better future.{{cite web |last1=Crawford |first1=Jason |title=WE NEED A NEW PHILOSOPHY OF PROGRESS |date=20 September 2022 |url=https://bigthink.com/progress/a-new-philosophy-of-progress-jason-crawford/ |access-date=30 May 2023}}{{Cite web| title = The world is awful. The world is much better. The world can be much better. - Our World in Data| access-date = 2025-03-24| url = https://ourworldindata.org/much-better-awful-can-be-better}}

A coarse but commonly used indicator of progress and economic growth is gross domestic product.{{Cite web| last = Stewart| first = Emily| title = What GDP does and doesn't tell us| work = Vox| access-date = 2025-01-13| date = 2022-07-28| url = https://www.vox.com/the-goods/2022/7/28/23280969/gdp-report-recession-economy-climate-change-happiness}} In "Stubborn Attachments", Tyler Cowen wrote:

[...] growth alleviates misery, improves happiness and opportunity, and lengthens lives. Wealthier societies have better living standards, better medicines, and offer greater personal autonomy, greater fulfillment, and more sources of fun.{{cite book |last1=Cowen |first1=Tyler |title=Stubborn Attachments: A Vision for a Society of Free, Prosperous, and Responsible Individuals |date=2018 |publisher=Stripe Press |page=33}}

Critics of progress studies say that the movement focuses too much on total growth and not enough on inequality.{{Cite web| title = Do we need a better understanding of 'progress'?| access-date = 2025-01-13| url = https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20220615-do-we-need-a-better-understanding-of-progress}} However supply-side progressives in particular do aim to distribute wealth more fairly, for example through housing policy reform efforts to reduce rents paid to landlords and allow more people to move to cities with higher paying opportunities.{{Cite news| issn = 0362-4331| title = Transcript: Ezra Klein Interviews Patrick Collison| work = The New York Times| access-date = 2025-01-13| date = 2022-09-27| url = https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/27/podcasts/transcript-ezra-klein-interviews-patrick-collison.html}}

In the last hundred-and-fifty to two-hundred years, unprecedented improvements have taken place in life expectancy, literacy, child mortality, and poverty, especially during an exceptional period of economic growth from 1870-1970. As Paul Krugman said in 1996, "By any reasonable standard, the change in how America lived between 1918 and 1957 was immensely greater than the change between 1957 and the present."{{cite web |last1=Krugman |first1=Paul |title=Wonders of technology not so wondrous |url=http://www.pkarchive.org/theory/WondersofTechnologyNotSoWonderous.html |access-date=4 June 2023}}

The great stagnation refers to the time from the 1970s to the present, where people's paychecks relative to cost of living started decreasing,{{Cite news| title = When Did the Great Stagnation Actually Begin?| work = Bloomberg.com| access-date = 2025-03-24| date = 2024-08-27| url = https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-08-27/great-stagnation-when-did-it-actually-begin}} and breakthrough scientific papers and patents have become less common.{{Cite journal| doi = 10.1038/s41586-022-05543-x| issn = 1476-4687| volume = 613| issue = 7942| pages = 138–144| last1 = Park| first1 = Michael| last2 = Leahey| first2 = Erin| last3 = Funk| first3 = Russell J.| title = Papers and patents are becoming less disruptive over time| journal = Nature| access-date = 2025-03-24| date = January 2023| pmid = 36600070| bibcode = 2023Natur.613..138P| url = https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05543-x}} Tyler Cowen posits in his book, The Great Stagnation, that recent advances in information technology, have obscured a slowdown in scientific discovery and technological innovation outside of computers.{{Cite book| publisher = Penguin| isbn = 978-1-101-50225-9| last = Cowen| first = Tyler| title = The Great Stagnation: How America Ate All The Low-Hanging Fruit of Modern History, Got Sick, and Will (Eventually) Feel Better: A Penguin eSpecial from Dutton| date = 2011-01-25}}{{Cite web| last = Thompson| first = Derek| title = America Is Running on Fumes| work = The Atlantic| access-date = 2025-01-13| date = 2021-12-01| url = https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/12/america-innovation-film-science-business/620858/}} Initiatives such as the Institute for Progress's partnership with the National Science Foundation aim to better align research granting incentives with scientific progress.{{Cite web| title = NSF partners with the Institute for Progress to test new mechanisms for funding research and innovation {{!}} NSF - National Science Foundation| access-date = 2025-01-13| date = 2023-09-28| url = https://new.nsf.gov/tip/updates/nsf-partners-institute-progress}}

Improving processes and outcomes of scientific research is one area of focus within progress studies. While the number of research dollars,{{Cite web| last1 = Collison| first1 = Patrick| last2 = Nielsen| first2 = Michael| title = Science Is Getting Less Bang for Its Buck| work = The Atlantic| access-date = 2024-01-08| date = 2018-11-16| url = https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2018/11/diminishing-returns-science/575665/}} scientists,{{Cite book| publisher = Princeton University Press| isbn = 978-1-4008-8930-3| last = Baumberg| first = Jeremy J.| title = The Secret Life of Science| date = 2018-05-15}} papers,{{Cite journal| doi = 10.1002/asi.23329| issn = 2330-1643| volume = 66| issue = 11| pages = 2215–2222| last1 = Bornmann| first1 = Lutz| last2 = Mutz| first2 = Rüdiger| title = Growth rates of modern science: A bibliometric analysis based on the number of publications and cited references| journal = Journal of the Association for Information Science and Technology| access-date = 2024-01-26| date = 2015| arxiv = 1402.4578| url = https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/asi.23329}}{{Cite web| title = Global scientific output doubles every nine years : News blog| access-date = 2024-01-26| url = https://blogs.nature.com/news/2014/05/global-scientific-output-doubles-every-nine-years.html}} and patents{{Cite journal| doi = 10.1257/aeri.20190499| volume = 3| issue = 3| pages = 303–320| last1 = Kelly| first1 = Bryan| last2 = Papanikolaou| first2 = Dimitris| last3 = Seru| first3 = Amit| last4 = Taddy| first4 = Matt| title = Measuring Technological Innovation over the Long Run| journal = American Economic Review: Insights| access-date = 2024-01-26| date = 2021-09-01 | url = https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aeri.20190499}} have been increasing over the years, the degree of innovation has been decreasing by some measures of patent quality and recent Nobel prizes.{{Citation| doi = 10.2139/ssrn.3822691| last1 = Cowen| first1 = Tyler| last2 = Southwood| first2 = Ben| title = Is the Rate of Scientific Progress Slowing Down?| location = Rochester, NY| access-date = 2024-01-26| date = 2019-08-05| ssrn = 3822691| url = https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=3822691| url-access = subscription}} Factors such as a decline in the availability of open-access scientific publications and peer review turnaround for papers,{{Cite web| last = Dixon-Luinenburg| first = Miranda| title = Scientific progress is at risk of slowing down. Saloni Dattani is making sure it doesn't.| work = Vox| access-date = 2024-01-26| date = 2022-10-20| url = https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/23393557/future-perfect-50-saloni-dattani-researcher}} may be contributing to the decline. Other researchers report that peer review scoring is not an accurate way of predicting which grants will be the most productive.{{cite journal |last1=Fang |first1=Ferric |last2=Bowen |first2=Anthony |last3=Casadevall |first3=Arturo |title=Research: NIH peer review percentile scores are poorly predictive of grant productivity |journal=eLife |date=Feb 16, 2016 |volume=5 |doi=10.7554/eLife.13323 |pmid=26880623 |pmc=4769156 |doi-access=free }}

Science writer and researcher (and Works in Progress co-founder) Saloni Dattani advocates for governments and international organizations to foster more widespread collection of public health data across different countries,{{Cite magazine| issn = 1059-1028| last = Dattani| first = Saloni| title = The Pandemic Uncovered Ways to Speed Up Science| magazine = Wired| access-date = 2024-01-26| url = https://www.wired.com/story/covid-19-open-science-public-health-data/}} the testing of more interventions in parallel during randomized controlled trials, recruiting industry experts to contribute to scientific endeavors, reforming the peer review process,{{cite web |last1=Dattani |first1=Saloni |title=Real peer review has never been tried |url=https://worksinprogress.co/issue/real-peer-review |website=Works in Progress |access-date=11 July 2023}} and greater data transparency from scientists Economists Heidi Williams and Paul Niehaus have argued that scientific practice could be improved with institutional support to amplify top-performers' work, and with incubation grants allowing institutions to "partner with academic researchers in trying to integrate research into operationalizing and scaling effective interventions."{{cite web |last1=Williams |first1=Heidi |last2=Niehaus |first2=Paul |title=Developing the science of science |url=https://worksinprogress.co/issue/developing-the-science-of-science |website=Works in Progress |access-date=11 July 2023}}

In response to the replication crisis, Spencer Greenberg and his team at Clearer Thinking have been replicating psychology studies published in prestigious journals since 2022.{{Cite web| last = Samuel| first = Sigal| title = Lots of bad science still gets published. Here's how we can change that.| work = Vox| access-date = 2024-01-26| date = 2022-12-06| url = https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/23489211/replication-crisis-project-meta-science-psychology}}

Proponents of progress studies tend to be supportive of building energy infrastructure,{{Cite web |last=Yglesias |first=Matthew |date=October 7, 2021 |title=The case for more energy |url=https://www.slowboring.com/p/energy-abundance?sort=new |access-date=2022-06-03 |website=Slow Boring |archive-date=2022-04-21 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220421190818/https://www.slowboring.com/p/energy-abundance?sort=new |url-status=live }} particularly for renewables like nuclear, wind, and solar, believing that energy abundance encourages economic growth and human progress.{{Cite web| title = The Case for Energy Abundance (SSIR)| access-date = 2024-01-24| url = https://ssir.org/articles/entry/the_case_for_energy_abundance}} This is in contrast to the idea of degrowth,{{Cite web| last = Doshi| first = Tilak| title = Is "Degrowth" The New Green Growth?| work = Forbes| access-date = 2024-01-08| url = https://www.forbes.com/sites/tilakdoshi/2023/08/25/is-degrowth-now-the-new-green-growth/}}{{Cite web| last = Stevens| first = Jessi Jezewska| title = The Relentless Growth of Degrowth Economics| work = Foreign Policy| access-date = 2024-01-08| date = 2024-01-12| url = https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/12/17/degrowth-economics-europe-climate-policy/}} from more traditional environmental movements{{Cite web| last = Piper| first = Kelsey| title = How does progress happen?| work = Vox| access-date = 2025-03-24| date = 2021-09-25| url = https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22652782/roots-of-progress-jason-crawford}} where people decrease consumption to protect the environment.

Stagnation has been partly attributed to lack of energy by J. Storrs Hall, who notes that energy consumption flatlined in the early 1970s, before the OPEC crisis.{{cite journal |last1=Storrs Hall |first1=J. |title=Where's My Flying Car |journal=Physics Today |date=2017 |volume=70 |issue=6 |page=80|doi=10.1063/PT.3.3568|bibcode=2017PhT....70f...8D }} Matthew Yglesias wrote in 2021 that this "energy diet" was holding back innovation and that "we want to generate vastly more energy than we are currently using and make it zero carbon." Economist Ryan Avent explains: "The difference between the sci-fi futures people imagined a half-century ago and the present as we live it — similar to the past, but we all have pocket computers — is an energy gap."{{cite web |last1=Avent |first1=Ryan |title=Was coal the low-hanging fruit? |url=https://ryanavent.substack.com/p/was-coal-the-low-hanging-fruit |website=The Bellows |date=8 July 2021 |access-date=4 June 2023}}

In contrast with traditional environmentalists, progress studies advocates tend to promote using science and technology to change the climate and the environment for the better, for example through advances in the field of terraformation. Progress studies proponents take note of efforts from environmental groups to obstruct building infrastructure for green energy.{{Cite web |last=Piper |first=Kelsey |date=2022-02-11 |title=To make progress, we need to study it |url=https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2022/2/11/22923756/to-make-progress-we-need-to-study-it |access-date=2024-01-22 |work=Vox}}

Proponents of progress studies tend to be aligned with YIMBY policies, believing that a shortage of housing in major cities limits economic growth. In Britain, former hedge fund manager and British YIMBY leader John Myers, along with policy analysts Ben Southwood and Sam Bowman, have suggested a "Housing Theory of Everything", which states that a wide range of problems – "slow growth, climate change, poor health, financial instability, economic inequality, and falling fertility" – could be improved by fixing the housing shortage.{{cite web |last1=Myers |first1=John |last2=Bowman |first2=Sam |last3=Southwood |first3=Ben |title=The HousingTheory of Everying |url=https://worksinprogress.co/issue/the-housing-theory-of-everything |website=Works in Progress |access-date=30 May 2023}}{{Cite web| title = The housing shortage affects everything - The Atlantic| website = The Atlantic| date = 18 February 2023| access-date = 2024-01-22| url = https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/02/us-housing-market-shortage-costs-san-francisco-cities/673121/}} Ezra Klein has also written about YIMBY as a part of supply-side progressivism.{{cite news |last1=Klein |first1=Ezra |title=California is Making Liberals Squirm |work=The New York Times |date=11 February 2021 |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/11/opinion/california-san-francisco-schools.html |access-date=11 July 2023}}

• {{Annotated link|Supply-side progressivism}}
• {{Annotated link|Transhumanism}}
• {{Annotated link|Charter city}}
• {{Annotated link|Effective accelerationism}}
• {{Annotated link|Frontier Thesis}}
• {{Annotated link|Future Shock}}
• {{Annotated link|Future Studies}}
• {{Annotated link|High modernism}}
• {{Annotated link|Techno-progressivism}}

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Category:Progress