Public Policy Polling
{{Short description|U.S. Democratic polling firm}}
{{Infobox company
| name = Public Policy Polling
| logo = File:2022 Public Policy Polling logo.png
| logo_size = 200px
| type = Private
| foundation = {{start date and age|2001}}
Raleigh, North Carolina, U.S.
| founder = Dean Debnam
| location_city = 2912 Highwoods Boulevard, Suite 201
Raleigh, North Carolina
| location_country = U.S.
| key_people = Tom Jensen (Director)
| area_served = United States
| industry = Opinion polling
| homepage = [http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/ publicpolicypolling.com]
}}
Public Policy Polling (PPP) is an American polling firm affiliated with the Democratic Party.{{cite web |author=Pathé, Simone |date=March 23, 2016 |title=Not Your Average Pollster: He Says Phones Are Out and Trump Is Credible |url=http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/not-average-pollster-phones-trump-credible-says-n-c-man |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20161005201952/http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/not-average-pollster-phones-trump-credible-says-n-c-man |archive-date=October 5, 2016 |access-date=October 5, 2016 |work=Roll Call}}{{cite web |url = http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/how-ppp-became-the-it-democratic-pollster |title = How PPP Became The 'It' Democratic Pollster |work = Talking Points Memo |date = August 22, 2011 |access-date = October 5, 2016 |author = Sarlin, Benjy |archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20161005202552/http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/how-ppp-became-the-it-democratic-pollster |archive-date = October 5, 2016 |url-status = live }}{{cite web |url = http://www.politico.com/story/2009/06/sen-launches-attack-on-polling-firm-024062 |title = Sen. launches attack -- on polling firm |work = Politico |date = June 23, 2009 |access-date = October 5, 2016 |author = Kraushaar, Josh |archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20161006040536/http://www.politico.com/story/2009/06/sen-launches-attack-on-polling-firm-024062 |archive-date = October 6, 2016 |url-status = live }} Founded in 2001 by businessman Dean Debnam, the firm is based in Raleigh, North Carolina. Debnam died in 2024.{{Cite web |title=Dean Debnam Obituary - Raleigh, NC |url=https://www.dignitymemorial.com/obituaries/raleigh-nc/dean-debnam-11987894 |access-date=2024-12-19 |website=Dignity Memorial |language=en-us}} Tom Jensen serves as the firm's director.[http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/aboutppp/about-us-bios.html "About Us"] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121122071434/http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/aboutppp/about-us-bios.html |date=2012-11-22 }}, Public Policy Polling, 2012. Retrieved on 6 December 2012.
In addition to political issues, PPP has conducted polling on comical topics. These include surveys of whether Republican voters believe Barack Obama would be eligible to enter heaven in the event of the Rapture,{{cite web |last = Rosenbaum |first = Ron |url = http://www.slate.com/blogs/weigel/2011/07/19/only_19_percent_of_republicans_think_obama_would_be_raptured.html |title = Only 19 Percent of Republicans Think Obama Would Be Raptured |publisher = Slate |date = July 19, 2011 |access-date = October 21, 2011 |archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20111020101401/http://www.slate.com/blogs/weigel/2011/07/19/only_19_percent_of_republicans_think_obama_would_be_raptured.html |archive-date = October 20, 2011 |url-status = live }} whether hipsters should be subjected to a special tax for being annoying,{{cite web |url = http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/05/13/hipster-tax_n_3268094.html |title = Hipster Tax For Being 'So Annoying' Backed By 27 Percent Of Americans: Poll |work = The Huffington Post |date = 13 May 2013 |access-date = 14 May 2013 |archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20130513210409/http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/05/13/hipster-tax_n_3268094.html |archive-date = 13 May 2013 |url-status = live }} and whether Ted Cruz is the Zodiac Killer.{{cite magazine |last1 = Stuart |first1 = Tessa |title = Is Ted Cruz the Zodiac Killer? Maybe, Say 38 Percent of Florida Voters |url = https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/is-ted-cruz-the-zodiac-killer-maybe-say-38-percent-of-florida-voters-20160226 |access-date = 1 May 2016 |magazine = Rolling Stone |date = 26 February 2016 |archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20160428192536/http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/is-ted-cruz-the-zodiac-killer-maybe-say-38-percent-of-florida-voters-20160226 |archive-date = 28 April 2016 |url-status = live }}{{cite web |title = Trump Leads Rubio in Florida- Even Head to Head |url = http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_FL_22516.pdf |publisher = Public Policy Polling |access-date = 1 May 2016 |archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20160408210452/http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_FL_22516.pdf |archive-date = 8 April 2016 |url-status = live }}
Elections
=2008=
PPP first entered prominence through its performance in the 2008 Democratic primaries between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. The company performed well, producing accurate predictions in states ranging from South Carolina to Wisconsin, many of which featured inaccurate results by other pollsters.{{cite web |url = http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2008/01/ppp-most-accurate-numbers-in-country.html |title = PPP: most accurate numbers in the country for South Carolina |publisher = Public Policy Polling |date = January 26, 2008 |access-date = October 21, 2011 |archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20111014080924/http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2008/01/ppp-most-accurate-numbers-in-country.html |archive-date = October 14, 2011 |url-status = live }}{{primary source inline|date=October 2016}}{{Cite web |url=http://www.surveyusa.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/02/wi-dem-primary-all-x-all-021908.JPG |title=Archived copy |access-date=2011-09-20 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120114163328/http://www.surveyusa.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/02/wi-dem-primary-all-x-all-021908.JPG |archive-date=2012-01-14 |url-status=live }} After the November election, PPP was ranked by the Wall Street Journal as one of the two most accurate firms, among those who were most active in the presidential swing states.
=2010=
PPP was the first pollster to find Scott Brown with a lead over Martha Coakley in the Massachusetts Senate special election; Brown ultimately won in a major comeback, and PPP's final poll in that race predicted Brown's winning margin exactly.{{cite web |last = Taylor |first = Jessica |url = http://www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard/0110/Poll_Scott_Brown_leading_Coakley_4847.html |title = Poll: Scott Brown ahead of Martha Coakley by 1 point |publisher = Politico |date = January 9, 2010 |access-date = October 21, 2011 |archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20110928120355/http://www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard/0110/Poll_Scott_Brown_leading_Coakley_4847.html |archive-date = September 28, 2011 |url-status = live }}
=2011=
PPP was praised in two articles from politico.com for its accuracy in polling the 2011 primaries and special elections, which are notoriously hard to predict. The contests they accurately predicted include the West Virginia gubernatorial primaries, special elections in New York and California,{{cite web |last = Catanese |first = David |url = http://www.politico.com/blogs/davidcatanese/0711/The_polling_is_right_Why_PPP_deserves_props.html |title = The polling is right: Why PPP deserves props |publisher = Politico |date = July 14, 2011 |access-date = October 21, 2011 |archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20111201013637/http://www.politico.com/blogs/davidcatanese/0711/The_polling_is_right_Why_PPP_deserves_props.html |archive-date = December 1, 2011 |url-status = live }}{{cite web |last = Isenstadt |first = Alex |url = http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0511/55703.html |title = NY-26: The winners and losers |date = 25 May 2011 |publisher = Politico |access-date = October 21, 2011 |archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20110808012736/http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0511/55703.html |archive-date = August 8, 2011 |url-status = live }} as well as all eight Wisconsin recall elections.
=2012=
A study by Fordham University found that, of 28 firms studied, PPP had the most accurate poll on the presidential national popular vote, both its independently conducted poll and the one it does in collaboration with the Daily Kos and the SEIU.{{cite web |last = Leighton |first = Kyle |url = http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/fordham-study-public-policy-polling-deemed-most-accurate |title = Fordham Study: Public Policy Polling Deemed Most Accurate National Pollster In 2012 |publisher = Talking Points Memo |date = 7 November 2012 |access-date = 7 November 2012 |archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20121108001242/http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/fordham-study-public-policy-polling-deemed-most-accurate |archive-date = 8 November 2012 |url-status = live }}{{cite news |last = Easley |first = Jonathan |title = Study finds PPP was the most accurate pollster in 2012 |url = https://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/polls/133985-study-finds-ppp-was-the-most-accurate-pollster-in-2012/ |access-date = 25 April 2013 |newspaper = The Hill |date = 7 November 2012 |archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20130815052718/http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/polls/266615-study-finds-ppp-kos-the-most-accurate-pollsters-in-2012 |archive-date = 15 August 2013 |url-status = live }}
PPP correctly called the winner of the presidential election in all 19 states it polled in the final week of the election, as well as the winners of all the U.S. Senate and gubernatorial races it surveyed.{{cite web |last = Mahtesian |first = Charles |url = http://www.politico.com/blogs/charlie-mahtesian/2012/11/ppp-nailed-it-148911.html |title = PPP nailed it |publisher = Politico |date = 7 November 2012 |access-date = 6 December 2012 |archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20121224010107/http://www.politico.com/blogs/charlie-mahtesian/2012/11/ppp-nailed-it-148911.html |archive-date = 24 December 2012 |url-status = live }}{{cite web |last = Bialik |first = Carl |url = https://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2012/11/07/how-did-pollsters-fare-on-election-night/ |title = How did pollsters fare on election night? |publisher = Wall Street Journal |date = 7 November 2012 |access-date = 6 December 2012 |archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20121213201614/http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2012/11/07/how-did-pollsters-fare-on-election-night/ |archive-date = 13 December 2012 |url-status = live }}{{cite web |last = Lauter |first = David |url = http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-which-pollsters-did-best-election-20121108,0,5284255.story |title = Which pollsters did best: Non-traditional methods were standouts |work = Los Angeles Times |date = 8 November 2012 |access-date = 6 December 2012 |archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20121128160634/http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-which-pollsters-did-best-election-20121108,0,5284255.story |archive-date = 28 November 2012 |url-status = live }}{{cite web |last = Enten |first = Harry |url = https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2012/nov/07/how-pollsters-won-2012-election-mostly |title = How the pollsters won the 2012 US election, mostly |work = The Guardian |date = 7 November 2012 |access-date = 6 December 2012 |archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20140809034919/http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2012/nov/07/how-pollsters-won-2012-election-mostly |archive-date = 9 August 2014 |url-status = live }}{{cite web |last = LoGiurato |first = Brett |url = http://www.businessinsider.com/ppp-election-prediction-nate-silver-obama-romney-2012-11 |title = How a three-man polling team completely nailed their election prediction |publisher = Business Insider |date = 12 November 2012 |access-date = 6 December 2012 |archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20121216032422/http://www.businessinsider.com/ppp-election-prediction-nate-silver-obama-romney-2012-11 |archive-date = 16 December 2012 |url-status = live }}
= 2014 =
Political research firm YouGov found PPP's gubernatorial polls to have the lowest average margin of error among national firms that polled in at least five gubernatorial races in the month preceding the election.{{Cite web|title = YouGov {{!}} YouGov poll performance in the 2014 Governor elections|url = https://today.yougov.com/news/2014/11/06/yougov-poll-performance-2014-governor-elections/|website = YouGov: What the world thinks|access-date = 2015-07-16|archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20150714081341/https://today.yougov.com/news/2014/11/06/yougov-poll-performance-2014-governor-elections/|archive-date = 2015-07-14|url-status = live}}
= 2016 =
In the 2016 Presidential Election, PPP's final polls widely missed the mark in several key swing states, including New Hampshire,{{Cite web |url=https://cdn.americanprogress.org/content/uploads/sites/2/2016/11/03143857/NHResults112-Final.pdf |title=Archived copy |access-date=2017-02-10 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170131004940/https://cdn.americanprogress.org/content/uploads/sites/2/2016/11/03143857/NHResults112-Final.pdf |archive-date=2017-01-31 |url-status=live }} North Carolina,{{Cite web |url=https://cdn.americanprogress.org/content/uploads/sites/2/2016/11/03143904/NCResults112-Final.pdf |title=Archived copy |access-date=2017-02-10 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170131004755/https://cdn.americanprogress.org/content/uploads/sites/2/2016/11/03143904/NCResults112-Final.pdf |archive-date=2017-01-31 |url-status=live }} Pennsylvania,{{Cite web |url=https://cdn.americanprogress.org/content/uploads/sites/2/2016/11/03143857/PAResults11316-Final.pdf |title=Archived copy |access-date=2017-02-10 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170131010850/https://cdn.americanprogress.org/content/uploads/sites/2/2016/11/03143857/PAResults11316-Final.pdf |archive-date=2017-01-31 |url-status=live }} and Wisconsin.{{Cite web |url=https://cdn.americanprogress.org/content/uploads/sites/2/2016/11/03143856/WIResults112-Final.pdf |title=Archived copy |access-date=2017-02-10 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170131011203/https://cdn.americanprogress.org/content/uploads/sites/2/2016/11/03143856/WIResults112-Final.pdf |archive-date=2017-01-31 |url-status=live }} Their polls also significantly underestimated President Trump's lead in Ohio,{{cite tweet |user = ppppolls |author = PublicPolicyPolling |number = 795762928419033090 |date = 7 November 2016 |title = Post Labor Day we haven't done a single Ohio poll that had either candidate up by more than 1 }} and incorrectly predicted Hillary Clinton to win Florida.{{cite tweet |user = ppppolls |author = PublicPolicyPolling |number = 795447716453187585 |date = 7 November 2016 |title = Think Hillary will win both but more confident about Florida }}
Methodology and reception
The company's surveys use Interactive Voice Response (IVR), an automated questionnaire used by other polling firms such as SurveyUSA and Rasmussen Reports.{{cite news |url = https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB122592455567202805 |title = Polls Foresaw Future, Which Looks Tough for Polling |last = Bialik |first = Carl |author-link = Carl Bialik |date = November 6, 2008 |work = The Wall Street Journal |pages = A16 |access-date = March 12, 2012 |archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20150611155152/http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB122592455567202805 |archive-date = June 11, 2015 |url-status = live }} The journalist Nate Cohn has criticized the company's methodology as being "unscientific".{{Cite magazine |title = There's Something Wrong With America's Premier Liberal Pollster |url = https://newrepublic.com/article/114682/ppp-polling-methodology-opaque-flawed |magazine = New Republic |date = 2013-09-12 |access-date = 2016-02-24 |first = Nate |last = Cohn |archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20160305035957/https://newrepublic.com/article/114682/ppp-polling-methodology-opaque-flawed |archive-date = 2016-03-05 |url-status = live }}
In 2013 columnist Nate Cohn described PPP as a liberal pollster.{{Cite magazine |url=https://newrepublic.com/article/114682/ppp-polling-methodology-opaque-flawed |title=PPP Polling Methodology: Opaque, Flawed | New Republic |magazine=The New Republic |access-date=2016-02-24 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160305035957/https://newrepublic.com/article/114682/ppp-polling-methodology-opaque-flawed |archive-date=2016-03-05 |url-status=live }} Statistician Nate Silver stated that PPP had a tendency to slightly lean Democratic by 1% as of January 2022.{{Cite web |url = http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/ |title = FiveThirtyEight's Pollster Ratings |last = Silver |first = Nate |date = 2016-06-02 |language = en-US |access-date = 2016-07-19 |archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20160717213945/http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/ |archive-date = 2016-07-17 |url-status = dead }} As of January 2022, Silver's website, FiveThirtyEight, gave PPP a A− grade in its pollster ranking.
References
{{Reflist|30em}}
External links
- {{official|http://www.publicpolicypolling.com}}
Category:Companies based in Raleigh, North Carolina
Category:Companies established in 2001
Category:Democratic Party (United States) organizations
Category:Privately held companies based in North Carolina
Category:Public opinion research companies in the United States