QuakeFinder
{{Use British English|date=January 2021}}
{{Use dmy dates|date=November 2024}}
QuakeFinder, LLC (QuakeFinder) was a company focused on developing magnetic field sensors (magnetometers) with a mission to save lives by forecasting earthquakes.{{Cite web |title=QuakeFinder » About |url=https://www.quakefinder.com/about/ |access-date=2025-02-17 |language=en-US}} QuakeFinder operated as an independent company with controlling interest investment from Stellar Solutions, LLC,{{cite web|title=Quakefinder Mission|url=https://www.stellarsolutions.com/humanitarian-r-d/|access-date=13 November 2016}} until its closure in 2008.{{Cite web |title=QuakeFinder » QuakeFinder History |url=https://www.quakefinder.com/about/quakefinder-history/ |access-date=2025-02-17 |language=en-US}} The company's assets were acquired by Stellar Solutions which continued the research as a humanitarian project until 2023 when data gathering was terminated.{{Cite web |date=2020-01-15 |title=This firm spent big to see if 'earthquake lights' could warn of temblors. It didn't work |url=https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-01-15/silicon-valley-firm-shutters-earthquake-forecasting-project |access-date=2025-02-17 |website=Los Angeles Times |language=en-US}} QuakeFinder teamed with five organizations in 2022 to publish ten years of earthquake monitoring results that reported "a modest signal 24-72 hours prior to earthquakes" for use in forecasts, but of insufficient accuracy to be used for predictions of earthquakes by time, location and size.{{Cite journal |last=Heavlin |first=William D. |last2=Kappler |first2=Karl |last3=Yang |first3=Lusann |last4=Fan |first4=Minjie |last5=Hickey |first5=Jason |last6=Lemon |first6=James |last7=MacLean |first7=Laura |last8=Bleier |first8=Thomas |last9=Riley |first9=Patrick |last10=Schneider |first10=Daniel |date=2022 |title=Case-Control Study on a Decade of Ground-Based Magnetometers in California Reveals Modest Signal 24–72 hr Prior to Earthquakes |url=https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2022JB024109 |journal=Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth |language=en |volume=127 |issue=10 |pages=e2022JB024109 |doi=10.1029/2022JB024109 |issn=2169-9356|doi-access=free }}
In the 1970s, scientists were optimistic that a practical method to improve forecasting to the level of predicting earthquakes would soon be achieved. By the 1990s continuing failure led USGS scientists to question whether prediction was possible.{{Harvnb|Geller|Jackson|Kagan|Mulargia|1997|p=1617}}; {{Harvnb|Geller|1997}}, §2.3, p. 427; {{Harvnb|Console|2001}}, p. 261. Extensive searches for possible earthquake precursors were not reliably identified across significant spatial and temporal scales as of 1997.{{Harvnb|Geller|1997|loc=Summary}}. Based on the results of this research, early scientists were pessimistic and some maintained that earthquake prediction was inherently impossible.{{Harvnb|Kagan|1997b}}; {{Harvnb|Geller|1997}}. See also [http://www.nature.com/nature/debates/earthquake/ Nature Debates]; {{Harvnb|Uyeda|Nagao|Kamogawa|2009}}. "...at the present stage, the general view on short-term prediction is overly pessimistic. There are reasons for this pessimism because mere conventional seismological approach is not efficient for this aim. Overturning this situation is possible only through multi-disciplinary science. Despite fairly abundant circumstantial evidence, pre-seismic EM signals have not yet been adequately accepted as real physical quantities."
QuakeFinder deployed a network of sensor stations to detect the electromagnetic pulses the team believed precede major earthquakes.{{cite news |author=John Upton |date=13 August 2011 |title=Pursuing the Grail of an Earthquake Predictor, but Facing Skeptics |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/14/us/14bcquakefinder.html |access-date=28 August 2011 |newspaper=The New York Times}} The sensors were reported to have a range of approximately 10 miles (16 km) from the instrument to the source of the pulses.{{cite web|url=http://www.bizjournals.com/sanjose/print-edition/2011/03/25/quakefinder-mission-detect-quakes-before.html
|title=QuakeFinder's mission: Detect quakes before they shake|date=25 March 2011|access-date=30 September 2011|author=Lisa Sibley|work=Silicon Valley / San Jose Business Journal|publisher=American Cities Business Journals}} As of 2016, the company reported 125 stations in California,{{cite web|title=Quakefinder Blog|url=https://www.quakefinder.com/thank-you-henry-dela-pena/|website=QuakeFinder|access-date=19 November 2016|date=2016}} and their research colleague, Dr. Jorge Heraud (Pontifica Universidad Catolica del Peru) reported 10 sites in Peru.{{cite web|last1=Heraud|first1=Jorge|title=presenter bio |url=https://exponential.singularityu.org/summit/presenters/jorge-heraud/|publisher=Singularity University Summit|access-date=19 November 2016|date=2016}} Using these sensors, Dr. Heraud published that he had been able to triangulate pulses seen from multiple sites, in order to determine the origin of the pulses. Dr. Heraud reported that the pulses were seen beginning from 11 to 18 days before an impending earthquake, and could be used to determine the location and timing of future seismic events.{{Cite journal|last1=Heraud|first1=J. A.|last2=Centa|first2=V. A.|last3=Bleier|first3=T.|date=1 December 2015|title=Electromagnetic Precursors Leading to Triangulation of Future Earthquakes and Imaging of the Subduction Zone|bibcode=2015AGUFMNH32B..03H|journal=AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts|volume=32|pages=NH32B–03}}{{Cite news |url=http://www.oregonlive.com/opinion/index.ssf/2015/12/earthquake-prediction_technolo.html|title=Earthquake-prediction technology deserves to be taken seriously (OPINION)|last1=Enriquez|first1=Alberto |date=2015|newspaper=OregonLive.com|access-date=19 November 2016}}
Background
In 2010, QuakeFinder researchers said that they had observed ultra low frequency magnetic pulses emitted by the Earth near the 2007 magnitude 5.4 Alum Rock earthquake near San Jose, California, starting two weeks prior to the event.{{cite journal|last1=Bleier|first1=T.|last2=Dunson|first2=C.|year=2010|title=Correlation of pre-earthquake electromagnetic signals with laboratory and field rock experiments|journal=Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.|volume=10|issue=9|pages=1965–1975|url=http://www.quakefinder.com/research/pdf/Correlation-of-pre-earthquake.pdf|access-date=30 September 2011 |doi=10.5194/nhess-10-1965-2010|bibcode=2010NHESS..10.1965B|doi-access=free}} Researchers from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) had previously attempted to study similar phenomena during the Parkfield earthquake (2007) experiment using an installation of seven (7) magnetometers that differed from the QuakeFinder magnetometers in terms of sensitivity, sample rate and spatial resolution. These researchers did not find evidence of electromagnetic earthquake precursors.{{cite web|url=https://earthquake.usgs.gov/research/parkfield/index.php|title=The Parkfield, California Earthquake Experiment|publisher=United States Geological Survey|access-date=29 August 2011}} {{PD-notice}}
QuakeFinder founder Tom Blier incorporated theory from Dr. Friedemann Freund which posited that slips along a fault activate charge carriers generating signal phenomena including electromagnetic pulses that can be detected with magnetometers.{{cite journal|last1=Freund|first1=F. T.|last2=Takeuchi|first2=A.|last3=Lau|first3=B. W.|title=Electric currents streaming out of stressed igneous rocks – A step towards understanding pre-earthquake low frequency EM emissions|journal= Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C|volume=31|issue=4–9|pages=389–396|year=2006|bibcode=2006PCE....31..389F|doi=10.1016/j.pce.2006.02.027|url=https://zenodo.org/record/1259299}} Underground currents may also cause air-conductivity changes and ground heating. QuakeFinder reported that an infrared signature of the Alum Rock earthquake was detected by NASA's GOES weather satellite.{{cite web|publisher=SpaceRef.com|author=Quakefinder|title=QuakeFinder Detects Quake: Pre-Quake Signatures Detected by QuakeFinder and NASA|access-date=30 September 2011|date=20 June 2009 |url=http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewpr.html?pid=28493}}
QuakeFinder reported that the effects they studied are localized in time and space, and aimed to improve forecasting by "the time (within 1-2 weeks), location (within 20-40km) and magnitude (within ± 1 increment of Richter magnitude) of earthquake greater than M5.4".{{cite journal|title=Current progress in using multiple electromagnetic indicators to determine location, time, and magnitude of earthquakes in California and Peru|journal=AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts|volume=2010|pages=NH24A–02|author1=Bleier, T. E.|author2=Dunson, C.|author3=Roth, S.|author4=Heraud, J.|author5=Freund, F. T.
|author6= Dahlgren, R.|author7=Bryant, N.|author8=Bambery, R.|author9=Lira, A.|publisher=American Geophysical Union|date=December 2010|id=abstract #NH24A-02|bibcode=2010AGUFMNH24A..02B}} This observation capability for forecasting was verified by QuakeFinder's 2022 reported results.
See also
References
{{Reflist}}
Sources
{{Refbegin}}
- {{citation
|last1= Console |first1= R.
|date= 30 August 2001
|title= Testing earthquake forecast hypotheses
|journal= Tectonophysics
|volume= 338 |issue= 3–4 |pages= 261–268
|doi= 10.1016/S0040-1951(01)00081-6
|bibcode = 2001Tectp.338..261C
}}
- {{citation
|last1= Geller |first1= Robert J.
|date= December 1997
|title= Earthquake prediction: a critical review.
|journal= Geophysical Journal International
|volume= 131 |issue= 3 |pages= 425–450
|doi= 10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06588.x
|doi-access= free
|bibcode = 1997GeoJI.131..425G
|url= http://gji.oxfordjournals.org/content/131/3/425.full.pdf
}}
- {{citation
|last1= Geller |first1= Robert J.
|first2= David D. |last2= Jackson
|first3= Yan Y. |last3= Kagan
|first4= Francesco |last4= Mulargia
|date= 14 March 1997
|title= Earthquakes Cannot Be Predicted
|journal= Science
|volume= 275 |issue= 5306
|page= 1616
|doi= 10.1126/science.275.5306.1616
|s2cid= 123516228
|url= http://moho.ess.ucla.edu/~kagan/Geller_et_al_1997.pdf
}}
- {{citation
|last1= Kagan |first1= Yan Y.
|date= December 1997b
|title= Are earthquakes predictable?
|journal= Geophysical Journal International
|volume= 131 |issue= 3 |pages= 505–525
|bibcode = 1997GeoJI.131..505K
|doi = 10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06595.x
|doi-access= free
|url= http://moho.ess.ucla.edu/~kagan/GJI_1997.pdf
}}
- {{citation
|first1= Seiya |last1= Uyeda
|first2= Toshiyasu |last2= Nagao
|first3= Masashi |last3= Kamogawa
|date=29 May 2009
|title=Short-term earthquake prediction: Current status of seismo-electromagnetics
|journal=Tectonophysics
|volume=470|issue=3–4|pages=205–213
|doi=10.1016/j.tecto.2008.07.019
|bibcode=2009Tectp.470..205U
}}
{{Refend}}
Further reading
- {{cite journal |last1=Bleier |first1=T. |last2=Dunson |first2=C. |year=2010 |title=Correlation of pre-earthquake electromagnetic signals with laboratory and field rock experiments|journal=Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences|volume=10|issue=9|pages=1965–1975|url=http://www.quakefinder.com/research/pdf/Correlation-of-pre-earthquake.pdf|doi=10.5194/nhess-10-1965-2010|bibcode=2010NHESS..10.1965B|doi-access=free}}
- {{cite journal|last1=Freund|first1=F. T.|last2=Takeuchi|first2=A.|last3=Lau|first3=B. W.|title=Electric currents streaming out of stressed igneous rocks – A step towards understanding pre-earthquake low frequency EM emissions|journal=Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C|volume=31|issue=4–9|pages=389–396|year=2006|url=http://www.isfep.com/FF_PhysChemEarth_Understanding.pdf |doi=10.1016/j.pce.2006.02.027|bibcode=2006PCE....31..389F}}
- {{cite journal|last=Freund|first=F. T.|title=Stimulated IR emission from rocks: Assessing a stress indicator |journal=eEarth |volume=2 |issue=1 |pages=1–10 |year=2007 |bibcode=2007eEart...2....1S |doi=10.5194/ee-2-7-2007 |s2cid=14165100 |url=https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00298232/file/ee-2-7-2007.pdf |doi-access=free }}
- {{cite journal|last=Freund|first=F.|title=Charge generation and propagation in igneous rocks|journal=Journal of Geodynamics|volume=33|issue=4–5|pages=545–572|year=2002 |doi=10.1016/S0264-3707(02)00015-7
|bibcode=2002JGeo...33..543F |hdl=2060/20010111483|hdl-access=free}}
External links
- [http://www.QuakeFinder.com QuakeFinder.com]
- [https://earthquake.usgs.gov/research/parkfield/index.php Parkfield Earthquake Experiment]
- {{cite news|title=Can Scientists Predict Earthquakes?|author1=Gordon Tokumatsu|author2=Julie Brayton|publisher=NBC|location=Los Angeles|date=29 June 2011|access-date=30 August 2011 |url=http://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/local/Can-Scientists-Predict-Earthquakes-124684639.html}}
- {{cite news|title=A Misuse of Public Funds: U.N. Support for Geomagnetic Forecasting of Earthquakes and Meteorological Disasters|author1=W. H. Wallace|publisher=American Geophysical Union (AGU)|date=29 September 1998|url=http://www.globalwatch.org/ungp/EOS_98.htm}}