Rachel Bitecofer
{{Short description|American political scientist (born 1977)}}
{{Use mdy dates|date=June 2020}}
{{Infobox person
|name = Rachel Bitecofer
|image = 2020 Headshot.jpg
|caption = Bitecofer in 2020
|birth_date = {{Birth date and age|1977|02|23}}
|education = University of Oregon (BA)
University of Georgia (MA, PhD)
}}
Rachel Bitecofer (born February 23, 1977){{cite tweet|user=RachelBitecofer|first=Rachel|last=Bitecofer|number=1099382117664993281|date=February 23, 2019|title=My mommy made me a birthday cake}}{{cite news |last1=Freedlander |first1=David |title=An Unsettling New Theory: There Is No Swing Voter |url=https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/02/06/rachel-bitecofer-profile-election-forecasting-new-theory-108944 |access-date=June 12, 2020 |work=Politico |date=February 6, 2020}} is an American political scientist.
Early life and career
Bitecofer has a bachelor's degree in political science from the University of Oregon and a Ph.D. in political science and international affairs from the University of Georgia. In 2015 she became a lecturer at Christopher Newport University and assistant director of the Wason Center for Public Policy, where she conducted polling. In 2019 she applied to convert her position at the university to tenure track, but was denied. She then resigned her position and went to work for the Niskanen Center, a centrist think tank in Washington, D.C.{{cite news |last1=Jones |first1=Matt |title=Election forecaster Rachel Bitecofer to leave CNU after denied shot at tenure |url=https://www.dailypress.com/news/education/dp-nw-rachel-bitecofer-cnu-resignation-20200324-6q3e3zpfubec5jrvh65uxgefl4-story.html |access-date=June 12, 2020 |work=Daily Press |date=March 24, 2020}}
Election punditry
Bitecofer's analysis has appeared on multiple media platforms including MSNBC and the New York Times. She wrote the 2017 book, The Unprecedented 2016 Presidential Election, on the election of Donald Trump and runs a podcast hosted by Substack titled The Election Whisperer. She runs Strike Pac, a liberal super PAC.{{Cite web |title=New superPAC launches to battle Republican messaging |url=https://www.msnbc.com/morning-joe/watch/new-superpac-launches-to-battle-republican-messaging-114285637695 |access-date=2021-06-08 |website=MSNBC.com |language=en}}
Bitecofer accurately predicted the size of the "Blue Wave" in the 2018 United States midterm elections earlier than other forecasters, projecting that Democrats would gain 42 U.S. House seats in the election; they gained 41 seats.{{cite news |last1=Capehart |first1=Jonathan |title='Black Americans are saving America from itself' in the Democratic primaries |url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/12/black-americans-are-saving-america-itself-democratic-primaries/ |access-date=June 12, 2020 |newspaper=Washington Post |date=March 12, 2020}} She also advanced the theory that Trump would lose reelection in 2020.{{Cite news|last=Bitecofer|first=Rachel|date=2019-01-25|title=Opinion {{!}} Why Trump Will Lose in 2020|language=en-US|work=The New York Times|url=https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/24/opinion/trump-2020-election.html|access-date=2021-06-08|issn=0362-4331}}{{cite news |last1=Rodrigo |first1=Chris Mills |title=Trump predicted to lose reelection in model that forecasted Democratic takeover of House |url=https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/451218-trump-predicted-to-lose-reelection-in-model-that-forecast-dem-takeover-of |access-date=June 12, 2020 |work=The Hill |date=July 1, 2019}}{{cite news |last1=Ress |first1=Dave |title=Regressing, to look forward: CNU's Bitecofer forecasts a Trump defeat in 2020 |url=https://www.dailypress.com/government/local/dp-nws-bitecofer-20190702-story.html |access-date=June 12, 2020 |work=Daily Press |date=July 2, 2019}} Bitecofer argued that the 2020 electorate would see the return of voters who were unmotivated to vote in 2016.
Bitecofer has argued that differential turnout has an increasing role in elections. This view has been criticized by other political analysts like David Wasserman of The Cook Political Report, with others such as Kyle Kondik of The Crystal Ball and Sam Wang offering more support.
She has also argued against Democrats nominating moderate "Blue Dog" candidates, pointing to liberal candidates Stacey Abrams and Beto O'Rourke losing their elections in 2018 by fairly narrow margins.
References
{{reflist}}
External links
- {{C-SPAN|135467}}
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Category:American women political scientists
Category:American political scientists
Category:American political commentators
Category:Christopher Newport University
Category:University of Oregon alumni
Category:University of Georgia alumni