Regime change

Regime change can be precipitated by revolution or a coup d'état. For example, the French Revolution, the Russian Revolution, and the Iranian Revolution.

Foreign-imposed regime change is the deposing of a regime by a foreign state, which can be achieved through covert means or by direct military action. Interstate war can also culminate into a foreign-imposed regime change for the losers, as occurred for the Axis Powers in 1945.{{Additional citation needed|date=August 2023}} Foreign-imposed regime change is sometimes used by states as a foreign policy tool.{{Cite journal|last=Peic|first=Goran|date=July 2011|title=Foreign-Imposed Regime Change, State Power and Civil War Onset, 1920-2004|journal=British Journal of Political Science|volume=41|issue=3|pages=453–475|doi=10.1017/s0007123410000426|s2cid=154222973}} According to a dataset by Alexander Downes, 120 leaders have been successfully removed through foreign-imposed regime change between 1816 and 2011.

During the Cold War, the United States and the Soviet Union frequently intervened in elections and engaged in attempts at regime change, both covertly and overtly.{{Cite journal|last=Levin|first=Dov H.|date=2019-01-01|title=Partisan electoral interventions by the great powers: Introducing the PEIG Dataset|journal=Conflict Management and Peace Science|language=en|volume=36|issue=1|pages=88–106|doi=10.1177/0738894216661190|s2cid=157114479|issn=0738-8942}}{{Cite journal|last=O'Rourke|first=Lindsey A.|date=2019-11-29|title=The Strategic Logic of Covert Regime Change: US-Backed Regime Change Campaigns during the Cold War|journal=Security Studies|volume=29|pages=92–127|doi=10.1080/09636412.2020.1693620|s2cid=213588712|issn=0963-6412}}{{Cite journal|last=Levin|first=Dov H.|date=2016-06-01|title=When the Great Power Gets a Vote: The Effects of Great Power Electoral Interventions on Election Results|url=https://academic.oup.com/isq/article/60/2/189/1750842|journal=International Studies Quarterly|language=en|volume=60|issue=2|pages=189–202|doi=10.1093/isq/sqv016|issn=0020-8833|doi-access=free}}Levin, Dov H. (7 September 2016). [https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/09/07/sure-the-u-s-and-russia-often-meddle-in-foreign-elections-does-it-matter/?tid=a_inl "Sure, the U.S. and Russia often meddle in foreign elections. Does it matter?"]. The Washington Post. Retrieved 21 May 2019. According to Michael Poznansky, covert regime change became more common when non-intervention was codified into international law, leading states that wanted to engage in regime change to do so covertly and conceal their violations of international law.{{Cite book |last=Poznansky |first=Michael |url=https://books.google.com/books?id=bXXnDwAAQBAJ |title=In the Shadow of International Law: Secrecy and Regime Change in the Postwar World |date=2020 |publisher=Oxford University Press |isbn=978-0-19-009661-8 |language=en}}

Modern examples of regime-change include the 2001 Invasion of Afghanistan, and the 2003 invasion of Iraq.

According to John Owen IV, there are four historical waves of forcible regime promotion:{{Cite book|last=IV|first=John M. Owen|url=https://muse.jhu.edu/book/30639|title=The Clash of Ideas in World Politics: Transnational Networks, States, and Regime Change, 1510-2010|date=2010|publisher=Princeton University Press|isbn=978-1-4008-3676-5}}

1. Catholicism vs Protestantism: From the 1520s to the early 18th century
2. Republicanism vs Constitutional monarchy vs Absolute monarchy: From the 1770s to the late 19th century
3. Communism vs Liberalism vs Fascism: From the late 1910s to the 1980s
4. Secular government vs Islamism: post-1990

Studies by Alexander Downes, Lindsey O'Rourke and Jonathan Monten indicate that foreign-imposed regime change seldom reduces the likelihood of civil war, violent removal of the newly imposed leader, and the probability of conflict between the intervening state and its adversaries,{{Cite journal|last1=Downes|first1=Alexander B.|last2=O'Rourke|first2=Lindsey A.|date=2016|title=You Can't Always Get What You Want: Why Foreign-Imposed Regime Change Seldom Improves Interstate Relations|url=https://direct.mit.edu/isec/article/41/2/43-89/12142|journal=International Security|language=en|volume=41|issue=2|pages=43–89|doi=10.1162/ISEC_a_00256|s2cid=52994000|issn=0162-2889}} as well as does not increase the likelihood of democratization (unless regime change comes with pro-democratic institutional changes in countries with favorable conditions for democracy).{{Cite journal|last1=Downes|first1=Alexander B.|last2=Monten|first2=Jonathan|date=2013|title=Forced to Be Free? Why Foreign-Imposed Regime Change Rarely Leads to Democratization|url=https://www.jstor.org/stable/24480621|journal=International Security|volume=37|issue=4|pages=90–131|doi=10.1162/ISEC_a_00117|jstor=24480621|s2cid=3640183|issn=0162-2889}} Downes argues,

The strategic impulse to forcibly oust antagonistic or non-compliant regimes overlooks two key facts. First, the act of overthrowing a foreign government sometimes causes its military to disintegrate, sending thousands of armed men into the countryside where they often wage an insurgency against the intervener. Second, externally-imposed leaders face a domestic audience in addition to an external one, and the two typically want different things. These divergent preferences place imposed leaders in a quandary: taking actions that please one invariably alienates the other. Regime change thus drives a wedge between external patrons and their domestic protégés or between protégés and their people.

• Russian involvement in regime change
• Soviet involvement in regime change
• United States involvement in regime change
• United States involvement in regime change in Latin America

• Active measures (in Soviet Union and Russia)
• Color revolution
• Covert operations
• Debt jubilee
• Democracy promotion
• Export of revolution
• List of CIA controversies
• Peaceful transition of power
• Rollback
• State collapse

{{Reflist}}

• {{cite book |last1=Downes |first1=Alexander B. |title=Catastrophic Success: Why Foreign-Imposed Regime Change Goes Wrong |date=2021 |publisher=Cornell University Press |isbn=978-1-5017-6115-7 |language=en}}

• [https://web.archive.org/web/20070122124301/http://encarta.msn.com/dictionary_701709420/regime_change.html Encarta Dictionary]
• [http://www.wordspy.com/words/regimechange.asp Word Spy: Regime Change] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140726114103/http://www.wordspy.com/words/regimechange.asp |date=2014-07-26 }}

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Category:Aftermath of war

Category:Changes in political power

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