Richard D. Gill

{{Infobox scientist

| name = Richard David Gill

| image = Richard D. Gill Oberwolfach 2014.jpg

| landscape = yes

| caption = Gill at Oberwolfach in 2014

| birth_date = {{birth year and age|1951}}

| birth_place =

| death_date =

| death_place =

| residence =

| nationality = British (Since 1951)
Dutch (Since 1996)

| alma_mater = University of Cambridge

| work_institution = Utrecht University
Leiden University

| doctoral_advisor =

| academic_advisors =

| doctoral_students = {{plainlist|1=

Sara van de Geer
Linda van der Gaag (co-advised by Jan Bergstra)
Mark van der Laan (co-advised by Peter Bickel)

}}

| notable_students =

| known_for =

}}

Richard David Gill (born 1951{{cite web |url=https://www.math.leidenuniv.nl/~gill/bio.html |title=Short biography: Richard D. Gill|publisher=Leiden University |access-date=25 August 2023 }}) is a British-Dutch mathematician. He has held academic positions in the Netherlands. As a probability theorist and statistician, Gill has researched counting processes. He is also known for his consulting and advocacy on behalf of alleged victims of statistical misrepresentation, including the reversal of the murder conviction of a Dutch nurse who had been jailed for six years.

Education

Gill studied mathematics at the University of Cambridge (1970–1973), and subsequently followed the Diploma of Statistics course there (1973–1974). He obtained a Ph.D. in mathematics in 1979,{{cite web |title=Richard D. Gil |url=https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/author/37088812694 |website=IEEE |access-date=26 September 2023}} with the thesis Censoring and Stochastic Integrals, which was supervised by Jacobus Oosterhoff and {{ill|Carel Scheffer|nl}} of the Vrije Universiteit, which awarded the doctorate.{{MathGenealogy|id=35026|title=Richard David Gill}}

During his career Gill has supervised 24 Ph.D. students including Sara van de Geer and Mark van der Laan.{{R|MGP}}

Gill has said that he was "not much of an activist" as a student, but now feels guilty about not speaking up more at the time about perceived injustices, saying that this is partly because of an incident when working as a statistician in the 1970s when he helped on an experiment that severed the front legs of rats to investigate whether it would lead to the reshaping of their skulls. Gill said that this incident has stayed with him, as "what upset me most is that I didn’t have the strength of character to refuse to do that job".

Career

In 1974 Gill was appointed at the Mathematical Centre (later renamed Centrum Wiskunde & Informatica, or CWI) of Amsterdam.{{citation|first1=Piet|last1=Groeneboom|authorlink1=Piet Groeneboom|first2=Jan|last2=van Mill|first3=Aad|last3=van der Vaart|authorlink3=Aad van der Vaart|title=Statistics as both a purely mathematical activity and an applied science|publisher=Nieuw Archief voor Wiskunde|volume=18|year=2017|pages=55–60|url=https://www.nieuwarchief.nl/serie5/pdf/naw5-2017-18-1-055.pdf}} After receiving his Ph.D., he continued to collaborate with Danish and Norwegian statisticians for ten years, co-authoring Statistical models based on counting processes, by Andersen, Borgan, Gill, and Keiding.{{cite book|last1=Andersen|first1=Per Kragh|last2=Borgan|first2=Ørnulf|last3=Gill|first3=Richard D.|last4=Keiding|first4=Niels|title=Statistical models based on counting processes|series=Springer series in statistics|publisher=Springer-Verlag|location=New York|year=1993|pages=xii+767|isbn=978-0-387-97872-7|mr=1198884}}

Gill became head of the Department of Mathematical Statistics at CWI in 1983.{{cite web |title=Richard David Gill |url=https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Richard-Gill-3 |website=ResearchGate |access-date=26 September 2023}} In 1988, Gill moved to the Department of Mathematics of Utrecht University, where he held the chair in mathematical stochastics. His PhD students include Sara van de Geer, and Mark van der Laan (co-advised by Peter Bickel).{{cite book|title=Selected Works of Peter J. Bickel|editor1-first=Jianqing|editor1-last=Fan|editor-link1=Jianqing Fan|editor2-first=Ya'acov|editor2-last=Ritov|editor3-first=CF Jeff|editor3-last=Wu|editor-link3=C. F. Jeff Wu|publisher=Springer Science+Business Media|year=2012|isbn=9781461455448|pages=xxxi–xxxiii}} In 2006, Gill moved to the Department of Mathematics at Leiden University, where he held the chair of mathematical statistics.{{cite web |title=Richard Gill appointed professor |url=https://www.universiteitleiden.nl/en/news/2006/07/richard-gill-appointed-professor |website=Leiden University |access-date=25 September 2023 |language=en |date=6 July 2006}} He retired from Leiden in 2017.{{cite web |last1=Gill |first1=Richard |title=From killer nurses to quantum entanglement, and back |url=https://www.vvsor.nl/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/STAtOR-2020-1-26-34-Gill.pdf |website=VVSOR - Vereniging voor Statistiek en Operations Research |publisher=Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research |access-date=27 September 2023}}

Gill became a citizen of the Netherlands in 1996.

Advocacy

Gill has lobbied for retrials for nurses whose criminal convictions were based in part on statistical evidence, including Lucia de Berk and Benjamin Geen.{{cite magazine |first=Cathleen |last=O'Grady |url=https://www.science.org/content/article/unlucky-numbers-fighting-murder-convictions-rest-shoddy-stats |title=Unlucky numbers: Richard Gill is fighting the shoddy statistics that put nurses in prison for serial murder |magazine=Science |date=19 January 2023 |access-date=26 August 2023 }} Gill also said in a 2021 lecture that he suspects Beverley Allitt is innocent, and in a 2020 paper said the case "deserves fresh study".{{cite web |last1=Gill |first1=Richard |title=Statistical Issues in Serial Killer Nurse Cases |website=YouTube |url=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ivSNF1XHjT0&t=1290s |access-date=24 September 2023 |date=13 June 2021}}{{rp|loc=21:35}}{{citation |last1=Gill |first1=Richard |title=From killer nurses to quantum entanglement, and back (Part 1) |date=14 January 2020 |page=7 |url=https://www.math.leidenuniv.nl/~gill/Untitled_extended.pdf |publisher=Leiden University}} Gill states that his original involvement in campaigning for nurses stemmed from his wife encouraging him to get involved in the de Berk case, recounting her saying "They’re using statistics; you should get involved, do something useful".

De Berk was sentenced in the Netherlands to life imprisonment in 2003, after a legal psychologist gave testimony that there was great likelihood that de Berk committed a string of murders.{{cite news|first=Nigel|last=Hawkes|title=Did statistics damn Lucia de Berk?: Behind the numbers|date=10 April 2010|newspaper=The Independent|url=https://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/nigel-hawkes-did-statistics-damn-lucia-de-berk-1940735.html}} Gill and other professional statisticians showed this statistical testimony to be fallacious. Continued scrutiny further invalidated the testimony by showing that the data had been collected to support the conviction of de Berk.{{cite journal|first=Mark |last=Buchanan |journal=Nature |volume=445 |issue=7125 |title=Statistics: conviction by numbers |pages=254–255 |date=18 January 2007 | url=http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v445/n7125/pdf/445254a.pdf |doi=10.1038/445254a |pmid=17230166 |bibcode=2007Natur.445..254B |s2cid=4419275 |doi-access=free}}{{cite web|url=http://www.cwi.nl/pr/press-releases/2007/pb-petitieGrunwald-011107.html |url-status=dead |title=Persbericht CWI: Hirsch Ballin en Albayrak nemen petitie aan in zaak Lucia de B. |language=nl |trans-title=CWI Press Release: Hirsch Ballin and Albayrak accept petition in case of Lucia de B. |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080408192403/http://www.cwi.nl/pr/press-releases/2007/pb-petitieGrunwald-011107.html |archive-date=8 April 2008 |date=1 November 2007 |publisher=Centrum voor Wiskunde en Informatica – Amsterdam}}{{cite web|url=http://www.novatv.nl/index.cfm?ln=nl&fuseaction=artikelen.details&achtergrond_id=9907 |title=Deskundige Over Belangrijkste Bewijs In Zaak Lucia De B.: 'Deze Baby Is Niet Vergiftigd' |language=nl |trans-title=Expert on the most important proof in the Lucia de B. case: 'This baby has not been poisoned'|url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20081004221559/http://www.novatv.nl/index.cfm?ln=nl&fuseaction=artikelen.details&achtergrond_id=9907 |archive-date=4 October 2008 |website=NOVA |date=29 September 2007}} After a campaign in which Gill helped, a retrial was ordered and de Berk was found not guilty; she received a public apology from the Dutch government, which also began negotiating financial compensation.{{cite news|url=http://www.dutchnews.nl/news/archives/2010/04/nurse_lucia_de_berk_not_guilty.php|title=Nurse Lucia de Berk finally found not guilty of murdering seven patients|date=14 April 2010|url-status=dead|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110724151645/http://www.dutchnews.nl/news/archives/2010/04/nurse_lucia_de_berk_not_guilty.php|archive-date=24 July 2011|df=dmy-all}}[https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/dutch-court-acquits-lucia-de-berk-of-killing-patients-1944577.html "Apology for nurse jailed for murdering seven patients"], AP, The Independent 14 April 2010.

Gill's challenge of statistical evidence played a role in securing Daniela Poggiali's acquittal on murder charges in Italy in 2021.{{cite news |last1=Reid |first1=Mark |title=Another acquittal: how Richard Gill once again saved a nurse from bad statistics |url=https://www.mareonline.nl/en/background/another-acquittal-how-richard-gill-once-again-saved-a-nurse-from-bad-statistics/ |access-date=30 September 2023 |work=Mare Online |date=19 April 2022}}

Benjamin Geen's applications for a retrial have been rejected and in 2013 and 2015 Gill and other statisticians asked the Criminal Cases Review Commission (CCRC) to look into his case. The appeals were unsuccessful.{{cite news |last1=Devlin |first1=Hannah |title=Statisticians question evidence used to convict nurse of murdering patients |url=https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/feb/15/statisticians-respiratory-arrests-trial-ben-geen |access-date=24 September 2023 |work=The Guardian |date=15 February 2015}}

In 2022 Gill contributed to a peer reviewed report from the Royal Statistical Society on statistical issues in investigation of suspected medical misconduct.{{Citation |last1=O'Grady |first1=Cathleen |title=Unlucky numbers: Fighting murder convictions that rest on shoddy stats |url=https://www.science.org/content/article/unlucky-numbers-fighting-murder-convictions-rest-shoddy-stats |access-date=26 September 2023 |date=19 January 2023|work=Science}}{{cite web |title=RSS publishes report on dealing with uncertainty in medical "murder" cases |url=https://rss.org.uk/news-publication/news-publications/2022/section-group-reports/rss-publishes-report-on-dealing-with-uncertainty-i/ |website=RSS |publisher=Royal Statistical Society |date=26 September 2022|access-date=26 September 2023}}

Since the conviction a British neonatal nurse, Lucy Letby, on multiple charges of murder and attempted murder in August 2023, Gill has publicly expressed doubt over her guilt.{{cite news |first=Eleanor |last=Steafel |title=How internet sleuths are already trying to prove Lucy Letby innocent |url=https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/08/24/lucy-letby-appeal-internet-sleuths/ |access-date=26 August 2023 |work=The Telegraph |date=24 August 2023}}

Honours

Gill is a member of the Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences.{{cite web |author= |url=https://www.knaw.nl/nl/leden/leden/4165 |title=Richard Gill |language=Dutch |publisher=Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences |access-date=15 July 2015 |archive-date=15 July 2015 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150715061745/https://www.knaw.nl/nl/leden/leden/4165 |url-status=dead}} He is a past president of the Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research.[http://www.vvs-or.nl/english/indexenglish.htm Board] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20091113142035/http://www.vvs-or.nl/english/indexenglish.htm |date=13 November 2009}}, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research. Accessed 23 January 2010 Gill was selected as the 2010–2011 Distinguished Lorentz Fellow by the Netherlands Institute for Advanced Study in Humanities and Social Sciences.[https://web.archive.org/web/20100223032301/http://www.nias.knaw.nl/en/fellowships/distinguished_lorentz_fellowship/ Distinguished Lorentz Fellow], Netherlands Institute for Advanced Study.[http://www.nieuws.leidenuniv.nl/laureaten/richard-gill-distinguished-lorentz-fellow-2010-2011.html Richard Gill Distinguished Lorentz Fellow 2010–2011], News release, Leiden University. Accessed 23 January 2010.

Selected publications

{{cite book |last1=Andersen |first1=Per K. |last2=Borgan |first2=Ornulf |last3=Gill |first3=Richard D. |last4=Keiding |first4=Niels |authorlink4=Niels Keiding|title=Statistical Models Based on Counting Processes |year=2012 |publisher=Springer Science & Business Media |isbn=978-1-4612-4348-9}}
{{cite journal|last1=Baddeley|first1=Adrian J.|authorlink1=Adrian Baddeley|last2=Gill|first2=Richard D.|title=Kaplan-Meier estimators of distance distributions for spatial point processes|journal=The Annals of Statistics|year=1997|volume=25|pages=263–292|doi=10.1214/aos/1034276629 |doi-access=free}}