SciCast
SciCast is a collaborative platform for science and technology forecasting created by George Mason University with the help of a grant from the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) as part of its ForeST (Forecasting in Science and Technology) program.{{cite news|url=http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/suburbs/community/chi-ugc-article-scicast-launch-crowdsourced-forecasting-proj-2013-12-16,0,6925070.story|title = SciCast Launch! Crowdsourced Forecasting Project from George Mason University|last= Jury|first = Jessie|date = December 16, 2013|accessdate = May 6, 2014|newspaper = Chicago Tribune}}{{cite web|url=http://newsdesk.gmu.edu/2014/01/scicast-crowdsources-forecasts-science-technology-events-innovations/|title = SciCast Crowdsources Forecasts on Science and Technology Events and Innovations|date = January 10, 2014|accessdate = May 6, 2014|publisher = George Mason University Newsdesk}}{{cite web|url=http://www.iarpa.gov/index.php/research-programs/forest|title = Forecasting Science & Technology (ForeST)|last = Matheny|first = Jason|accessdate = May 6, 2014|publisher = Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity}} SciCast is currently (January 2016) on hiatus, after losing its main IARPA funding.{{cite web|url=http://blog.scicast.org/2015/06/08/so-long-and-thanks-for-all-the-fish/|title = So Long, and Thanks for All the Fish! |date = June 8, 2015|accessdate = July 12, 2015|publisher = The Official SciCast Blog}} It was expected to re-open in the fall of 2015 with the support of a major Science & Technology sponsor, but this had not occurred by January 2016.
History
SciCast was an outgrowth of an earlier project called DAGGRE (Decomposition-Based Elicitation and Aggregation), also an IARPA project that implemented GMU economist Robin Hanson's idea of combinatorial prediction tech markets, and was a participant in the IARPA Aggregative Contingent Estimation tournament.{{cite web|url=http://www.overcomingbias.com/2014/01/announcingscicast.html|title = Announcing: SciCast|date = January 3, 2014|accessdate = May 6, 2014|last = Hanson|first = Robin|authorlink = Robin Hanson|publisher = Overcoming Bias}}{{cite web|url = http://www.overcomingbias.com/2011/08/join-gmus-daggre-team.html|title = Join The DAGGRE Team|last = Hanson|first = Robin|authorlink = Robin Hanson|publisher = Overcoming Bias|date = August 31, 2011|accessdate = May 6, 2014}}
The launch of SciCast itself was announced by Robin Hanson on January 3, 2014, and the official announcements were made on January 10, 2014. The launch received some news coverage in March 2014.{{cite web|url=http://www.aaas.org/news/scicast-predict-tomorrow-today|title = SciCast - Predict Tomorrow, Today. The Center for Science, Technology, and Security Policy (CSTSP) is working with a research group at George Mason University on a project – SciCast - to develop an online crowd-sourcing tool that can help predict future innovations in science and technology.|last = Roderick|first = Jennifer|date = March 30, 2014|accessdate = May 6, 2014|publisher = American Association for the Advancement of Science}}
Reception
SciCast has been covered in The Chicago Tribune repeatedly.{{cite news|url=http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/suburbs/frankfort_mokena_new_lenox/community/chi-ugc-article-scicast-college-bowl-kicks-off-today-april-2-2014-04-29,0,4160076.story|title = SciCast College Bowl Kicks off Today, April 29|last = Jury|first = Jessie|date = April 29, 2014|accessdate = May 6, 2014|newspaper = Chicago Tribune}}
The launch of SciCast was picked up by many blogs and websites of data analysis and technology trends.{{cite web|url=http://www.kdnuggets.com/2014/01/scicast-crowdsourced-forecasting-platform-science-technology.html|title = SciCast: a Crowdsourced Forecasting Platform for Science and Technology|publisher = KD Nuggets|date = January 16, 2014|last = Piatetsky|first = Gregory|accessdate = May 6, 2014}}{{cite web|url = http://www.securitycurve.com/archives/6895|title = SciCast: Toward a better model for prediction|date = January 22, 2014|accessdate = May 6, 2014|author = Ed|publisher = Security Curve|url-status = dead|archiveurl = https://web.archive.org/web/20140129175523/http://www.securitycurve.com/archives/6895|archivedate = January 29, 2014}}{{cite web|url=http://sasm.tv/2014/02/06/robin-hanson-scicast-prediction-markets-future-day/|title = Robin Hanson – SciCast, Prediction Markets & Future Day |last = Lozada|first = John|date = February 6, 2014|accessdate = May 6, 2014}}
SciCast's crowdsourced search for the missing Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 airliner attracted the attention of some analysts.{{cite web|url=http://www.kdnuggets.com/2014/03/scicast-crowdsourcing-search-malaysian-air-flight-370.html|title = SciCast Crowdsourcing search for Malaysian Air Flight MH370|last = Piatetsky|first = Gregory|date = March 15, 2014|accessdate = May 6, 2014}}
See also
References
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