Split Ticket (website)
{{Infobox website
| name = Split Ticket
| logo = Split Ticket.webp
| language = English
| founded = 31 December 2021{{cite web |title=split-ticket.org |url=https://who.is/whois/split-ticket.org |website=who.is |access-date=23 October 2024}}
| country_of_origin = United States
| founder = Lakshya Jain
Harrison Lavelle
Armin Thomas
| website = {{URL|split-ticket.org}}
}}
Split Ticket is an American political forecasting website that was founded in 2021. The website predicts elections for the United States presidential election by state, the United States Senate, the United States House of Representatives, and gubernatorial elections.
History
The website was founded in 2021 by Lakshya Jain, Harrison Lavelle, and Armin Thomas. The interest for the website initially came from a Twitter community, known as Election Twitter. Leon Sit joined the website in 2022, and Max McCall joined in 2024.{{cite web |title=About Us |url=https://split-ticket.org/about-us/ |website=Split Ticket |access-date=23 October 2024}} Jain first entered political media following the 2016 United States presidential election, and the surprise that came from the unexpected result.{{Cite podcast |url=https://www.cnn.com/audio/podcasts/cnn-politics/episodes/3809b3ee-e235-11ee-9f75-43bc43bbe1b2 |title=The Gen Z Group Making Politics Fun |website=The Assignment with Audie Cornish |publisher=CNN |host=Audie Cornish |date=26 September 2024 |access-date=23 October 2024}}
In 2023, they used a "wins above replacement" method to determine what candidates over performed expectations, based on the PVI and the political environment. They found that Joe Manchin and Jon Tester were the two winning candidates that performed the best, above what was expected.{{cite web |title=Jon Tester Is a Historically Strong Candidate |url=https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2023/Items/Nov13-8.html |website=electoral-vote.com |access-date=23 October 2024}} They also found that Republican Problem Solvers and Blue Dogs performed better in both caucuses and the 2022 general election.{{cite web |last1=Kerr |first1=Liam |title=Democrats should try harder to win tough races |url=https://www.slowboring.com/p/democrats-should-try-harder-to-win |website=Slow Boring |access-date=23 October 2024}}{{cite web |title=Electability, Ideology, and the 2022 Midterms |url=https://split-ticket.org/2023/01/18/electability-ideology-and-the-2022-midterms/ |website=Split Ticket |access-date=23 October 2024}}
In 2024, the website partnered with Politico to create a game in which the user plays as a campaign manager.{{cite web |last1=Zydor |first1=Kate |title=Student co-founder of Split Ticket partners with Politico to create election simulation game |url=https://www.tcnjsignalnews.com/article/2023/09/student-co-founder-of-split-ticket-partners-with-politico-to-create-election-simulation-game |website=The Signal |access-date=23 October 2024}}{{cite web |last1=Jain |first1=Lakshya |last2=Lavelle |first2=Harrison |last3=Sit |first3=Leon |last4=Thomas |first4=Armin |last5=Milligan |first5=Andrew |title=You Be The Campaign Manager |url=https://www.politico.com/interactives/2023/2024-election-campaign-manager-game/ |website=Politico |access-date=23 October 2024}} The game created an algorithm that split U.S. counties into separate groups based on how they would vote.{{cite web |title=The 8 places that will decide the 2024 election |url=https://www.politico.com/news/2023/09/12/2024-election-counties-split-ticket-00114940 |website=Politico |access-date=23 October 2024}} They also published a New York Times opinion article about campaign money spent on abortion ads.{{cite web |title=What Abortion Ad Spending Shows About Democrats’ 2024 Campaign |url=https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/05/24/opinion/ads-abortion-election-2024.html |website=The New York Times |access-date=23 October 2024}}{{cite web |title=TCNJ student Harrison Lavelle takes a nonpartisan look inside political polling |url=https://hss.tcnj.edu/2024/10/09/election-connection/ |website=The College of New Jersey |access-date=23 October 2024}}
Predictions
In making predictions, the website focuses on polling aggregators that factor in how old a poll is, quality of other polls, population, and sample size.
During the 2024 election cycle, the group correctly forecasted 513 out of 525 federal elections correctly using their quantitative models, missing 3 out of 56 calls at the presidential level, 8 out of 435 in the House of Representatives, and 1 out of 34 races in the Senate elections, for a 98% accuracy rating overall. This placed them only behind 538 for call accuracy among 2024 political handicappers.{{Cite web |last=Jain |first=Lakshya |last2=Lavelle |first2=Harrison |last3=McCall |first3=Max |last4=Sit |first4=Leon |date=2024-12-06 |title=How did Split Ticket’s Models Perform in 2024? |url=https://split-ticket.org/2024/12/06/how-did-split-tickets-models-perform-in-2024/ |access-date=2025-01-02 |website=Split Ticket |language=en-US}}