Survation
{{Short description|British polling and market research company}}
{{primary sources|date=January 2023}}
{{Use dmy dates|date=May 2023}}
{{Use British English|date=July 2013}}
{{Infobox company
| name = Survation Ltd
| logo = File: New_Survation_Logo.png
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| industry = Market Research
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| foundation = 2010
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| location = London, England, UK
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| area_served = United Kingdom
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| services = Market Research
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| homepage = {{URL|https://www.survation.com}}
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Survation is a polling and market research agency based in London, England. Survation have been conducting research surveys since 2010. Surveys are conducted via telephone, online panel and face to face as well as omnibus research for a broad range of clients including television, newspapers, charities, lobby groups, trade unions, law firms and political parties. Damian Lyons Lowe is the company founder and Chief Executive.{{cite news |url=http://survation.com/about/ |title=About Us |publisher=Survation |accessdate=2013-01-14 |archive-date=10 March 2013 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130310050929/http://survation.com/about/ |url-status=dead }}
Overview
Survation was incorporated on 2 February 2010 as a private limited company.{{cite web |url=http://wck2.companieshouse.gov.uk//compdetails |title=WebCHeck – Select and Access Company Information |publisher=Wck2.companieshouse.gov.uk |accessdate=2013-01-14 |archive-date=29 January 2021 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210129221043/http://wck2.companieshouse.gov.uk//compdetails |url-status=live }}
The company is a member of the British Polling Council and Market Research Society.{{cite web|url=http://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/officers-members/|title=Officers / Members – British Polling Council|website=britishpollingcouncil.org|accessdate=6 February 2019|archive-date=15 December 2020|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20201215010938/http://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/officers-members/|url-status=live}}{{cite web|url=https://www.mrs.org.uk/researchcompany/survation-ltd|title=Survation Ltd – Market Research Agencies – The Research Buyers Guide|website=Market Research Society|accessdate=12 December 2019|archive-date=12 December 2019|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20191212005846/https://www.mrs.org.uk/researchcompany/survation-ltd|url-status=live}} The company chief executive, Damian Lyons Lowe is the company's representative and member on the British Polling Council.
Survation was one of the most active and accurate opinion polling companies (using both online and telephone methods) during the Scottish Independence Referendum campaign, which concluded with a final result of 55% for "No". Survation’s final telephone poll, conducted on 16-17 September 2014 for The Daily Record, showed a 6-point lead for "No" at 53%, which was within the expected margin of error. After excluding undecided voters, the poll indicated a result of 47% for "Yes" and 53% for "No".{{Cite web |last=Curtice |first=John |date=2014-09-18 |title=More Polls: Still Close! |url=https://www.whatscotlandthinks.org |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140920203736/http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/09/polls-still-close/ |archive-date=2014-09-20 |access-date=2025-03-05 |website=What Scotland Thinks |language=en-US}}
Survation’s final predictions aligned with those of other companies, including Ipsos MORI, which also used telephone polling. While all polls slightly underestimated the strength of the "No" vote, the overall predictions were considered accurate. The final margin for "No" was consistently close across different polling companies, with Survation being one of the most reliable in terms of methodology and results.{{Cite web |last=Curtice |first=John |date=2014-09-19 |title=So How Well Did The Polls Do? |url=https://www.whatscotlandthinks.org |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140920203741/http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/09/well-polls/ |archive-date=2014-09-20 |access-date=2025-03-05 |website=What Scotland Thinks}} In 2017, Survation asserted that their final telephone poll before the 2014 Scottish Independence referendum was the polling industry’s most accurate, surpassing Ipsos MORI’s similarly accurate results by just one decimal point.{{Cite web |date=2017-06-02 |title=How We've Changed (and not changed) Polling Methodology Since 2015 |url=https://www.survation.com/weve-changed-polling-methodology-since-2015/ |access-date=2025-03-05 |website=Survation |language=en}}
The company also claimed that the Survation final poll before the 2015 general election was exceptionally accurate,{{cite web | url=http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Final-Phone-Poll-2.pdf | title=General Election Poll Final | date=8 May 2015 | access-date=27 April 2017 | archive-date=5 May 2016 | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160505155627/http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Final-Phone-Poll-2.pdf | url-status=live }} unlike most others, but the result was suppressed by the CEO through fear of the poll being an outlier.{{cite web | url=https://www.businessinsider.com/survation-unpublished-poll-general-election-result-2015-5 | title=This polling company claims it knew the General Election result ahead of time but 'chickened out' of publishing it for fear the poll was an "outlier" | publisher=Business Insider | date=2015-05-12 | access-date=2017-04-23 | archive-date=10 June 2017 | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170610092520/http://uk.businessinsider.com/survation-unpublished-poll-general-election-result-2015-5 | url-status=live }}
2016 EU Referendum
In contrast to polling published on or conducted during the day of the EU Referendum by Populus, YouGov, and Ipsos Mori that predicted the UK would vote to remain in EU, Survation conducted a private exit poll which correctly predicted Leave, despite academics deciding an exit poll for broadcast would not be feasible and an expensive and difficult proposition.{{cite news | url=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-06-25/brexit-big-short-how-pollsters-helped-hedge-funds-beat-the-crash | title=How pollsters helped hedge funds beat the crash | newspaper=Bloomberg News | date=2018-06-25 | accessdate=2018-08-02 | archive-date=13 July 2021 | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210713194019/https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-06-25/brexit-big-short-how-pollsters-helped-hedge-funds-beat-the-crash | url-status=live }}
2017 UK election
Survation, alone amongst opinion pollsters, correctly predicted a hung parliament. Their Chief Executive, Damian Lyons Lowe, appeared on a BBC program where the poll was mocked and described as an "outlier".Archived at [https://ghostarchive.org/varchive/youtube/20211211/W3lx2oopccI Ghostarchive]{{cbignore}} and the [https://web.archive.org/web/20170621095719/https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W3lx2oopccI&gl=US&hl=en Wayback Machine]{{cbignore}}: {{cite AV media| url = https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W3lx2oopccI&t=243s| title = Pollster mocked by BBC for predicting Corbyn surge, hung parliament and DUP coalition | via=YouTube}}{{cbignore}} After the election, he was invited back on the BBC to talk again about his prediction.{{Cite web|url=https://www.survation.com/survation-most-accurate-pollster/|title=Survation Was the Most Accurate Pollster this Election – How Did We Get It Right?|date=14 June 2017|website=Survation|access-date=22 May 2022|archive-date=11 May 2021|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210511012345/https://www.survation.com/survation-most-accurate-pollster/|url-status=live}}
2024 UK general election
A Survation poll released 2 days before the election predicted the Conservative party would win only 64 seats, the lowest prediction among mainstream polls.{{Cite web|url=https://www.ft.com/content/986b19e2-3f0a-41b4-8a5a-ff728cb3eb1f|title=Conservatives set for historic UK election defeat, polls suggest|first1=Rafe|last1=Uddin|first2=Lucy|last2=Fisher|first3=Jim|last3=Pickard|first4=George|last4=Parker|date=4 July 2024}}{{Cite web | url=https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/poll-predicts-record-win-labour-party-uk-election-2024-07-02/ | title=Poll predicts record win for Labour Party at UK election | date=2024-07-02 | website=www.reuters.com | publisher=Reuters}}
Methodology
Survation opinion polling is achieved through telephone, online and face to face surveys. Nationally, data is weighted to represent the wider population of the United Kingdom in terms of gender, age, socio-economic group, religion, how they have previously voted, and how likely a person says they are to vote in the next general election. Respondents who are either undecided or refuse to state how they would vote are excluded from the final results, unless they have provided details of how they have voted in the past, in which case, that information is used to adjust the results accordingly.{{cite web |title=Brexit Anniversary Poll |url=https://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/GMB-Final-Tables.pdf |website=survation.com |access-date=26 July 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220421010945/https://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/GMB-Final-Tables.pdf |archive-date=2022-04-21 |language=en |date=21 Jun 2018 |url-status=live}}