Talk:COVID-19 lab leak theory/Archive 41#Suggested resolution of %5Bdubious – discuss%5D

{{Aan}}

NYT: CIA under Biden favored lab leak theory as more likely

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/25/us/politics/cia-covid-lab-leak.html Cyanotrop (talk) 03:39, 26 January 2025 (UTC)

:see the discussion above. TarnishedPathtalk 03:51, 26 January 2025 (UTC)

Use of "misplaced suspicion" in lead

{{U|TarnishedPath}}, [https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=COVID-19_lab_leak_theory&diff=prev&oldid=1262021361 you are insisting here] on the word "misplaced" before "suspicion", which is not in the source relied on in the lead and is treating the whole question as settled and certain – although taken as a whole the page does not do that. I can't find a reliable source in the article for "misplaced suspicion" could you please give it here? Even if the claim is cited somewhere else, given the lack of any certainty any such source must be POV. Moonraker (talk) 05:41, 9 December 2024 (UTC)

:@Moonraker, the word misplaced was placed in at Special:Diff/1262010139 by @Bon courage. My edit prior to yours was in relation to updating a link target and nothing else. TarnishedPathtalk 05:49, 9 December 2024 (UTC)

::You are right, {{U|TarnishedPath}}, I have pinged the wrong user. {{U|Bon courage}}, the question is for you. And you say in your edit summary "The lede summarized the body, which explains this is a fallacy" – what is a fallacy? I do not see one. Moonraker (talk) 05:54, 9 December 2024 (UTC)

:::You can search for the word "fallacy" with a browser's search functionality. This is the "too much of a coincidence" line of argument and we need to call it out as faulty for reasons of neutrality. Bon courage (talk) 05:57, 9 December 2024 (UTC)

::::Thank you for the reply, {{U|Bon courage}}. What I find is this:

::::{{Quote|Stephan Lewandowsky and colleagues write that the location of the Institute near the outbreak site is "literally a coincidence" and using that coincidence as a priori evidence for a lab leak typifies a kind of conjunction fallacy.}}

::::The link to the source given for this is dead. We can agree on what is said about evidence, but if it did state any certainty, that would be highly unscientific, so I doubt that it does. Can you give us the exact quotation, please? In any event, it is surely the word "misplaced" which offends against neutrality, taking the article as a whole, and I see nothing about "misplaced suspicion". Moonraker (talk) 06:20, 9 December 2024 (UTC)

:::::No, for WP:FRINGESUBJECTS we are obliged to call fringe notions what they are (such as the "too much of a coincidence" middle-brow reckon). I'm not sure why you call this correction from well-published actual experts in their field "highly unscientific" - surely the opposite is true. I have no issue replacing "misplaced suspicion" with "fallacious reasoning"; both seem a fair summary of our good sources. T&F seem to be having technical issues; I'm sure they'll be back soon. Bon courage (talk) 06:22, 9 December 2024 (UTC)

:::::@Moonraker, I've updated the DOI for the reference. You can find an open access version of the book at https://www.taylorfrancis.com/books/oa-edit/10.4324/9781003330769/covid-conspiracy-theories-global-perspective-michael-butter-peter-knight, although the links to the chapter PDFs seem not be working. The book is listed on Google at https://www.google.com.au/books/edition/Covid_Conspiracy_Theories_in_Global_Pers/NASqEAAAQBAJ?hl=en and you can probably see a lot of it from there. TarnishedPathtalk 06:58, 9 December 2024 (UTC)

::::::This seems to come up a lot so I wonder if we should expand on it. One source (can't remember which) posited a scenario where COVID started in Beijing, and how the argument would then be "Beijing has more virology labs than any city in China, so it stands to reason a lab origin in likely". Bon courage (talk) 07:01, 9 December 2024 (UTC)

:::::::If that quote is from the book, I think that would clarify why reasoning that there's a connection, between a lab being in Wuhan and the outbreak seemingly staring from there, is faulty/misplaced/fallacious/whatever other synonyms there are. TarnishedPathtalk 07:32, 9 December 2024 (UTC)

::::::::I don't think it's in this source, though it does explain why you'd expect outbreaks to coincide with where virology labs are, for perfectly innocent reasons. Bon courage (talk) 07:44, 9 December 2024 (UTC)

:::::::::Agreed, it's perfectly understandable reasoning, however as is clear to anyone who's done the tiniest amount of study in formal logic it's completely misplaced/fallacious/etc. Unfortunately we need sources to cover that sort of stuff or we're engaging in WP:OR TarnishedPathtalk 07:49, 9 December 2024 (UTC)

::::::::::Yup. Fortunately the Lewandowsky et al source has it covered in sufficient detail (though not enough for there to be constant questions about this, it seems). Bon courage (talk) 08:06, 9 December 2024 (UTC)

:::::::::::Anyway I've added both a correct DOI and a link to the book from Google Books, to the reference. Moonraker should read the chapter if he wants to dispute this further. TarnishedPathtalk 08:17, 9 December 2024 (UTC)

:::::@Moonraker, I've just had a look at google books at it seems the whole book (a the very least the first two chapters are, which is when I stopped scrolling) is available from https://www.google.com.au/books/edition/Covid_Conspiracy_Theories_in_Global_Pers/NASqEAAAQBAJ?hl=en&gbpv=1, which is no surprise I guess given that Francis & Taylor have released it under a free license. TarnishedPathtalk 07:39, 9 December 2024 (UTC)

  • Thank you, {{U|TarnishedPath}}, but I still can't get through to it. And even if I could, reading the whole chapter is unlikely to take us anywhere. What is claimed (rightly or wrongly) on our page to be in the source makes sense, and it says nothing about a "misplaced suspicion" – nor can what it is claimed to say infer one. So that term is not cited. You say "reasoning that there's a connection, between a lab being in Wuhan and the outbreak seemingly starting from there, is faulty/misplaced/fallacious" - agreed. And what the source is claimed to say ("the location of the Institute near the outbreak site... using that coincidence as a priori evidence for a lab leak typifies a kind of conjunction fallacy") is fine too. But no one here or anywhere else is trying to use it as hard evidence for anything. It's circumstantial and feeble, all that comes from it is a suspicion. To go on from that to say that the suspicion is "misplaced" is to judge the whole question in a way that the page does not, based on no citation and no evidence. That is also fallacious, which is why the word "misplaced" needs to come out. Do you not agree? Moonraker (talk) 02:35, 10 December 2024 (UTC)
  • :@Moonraker, if you click on the link for the DOI from the reference that takes you to Taylor & Frances page for the book. After discussions here last night I was successfully able to download chapters. I read the 2nd chapter last night and I believe more than adequately supports the material in the article. TarnishedPathtalk 02:56, 10 December 2024 (UTC)
  • The "misplaced suspicion" phrasing is problematic as it suggest a definitive judgment, biasing readers against considering the proximity of the lab to the initial COVID-19 outbreak site as significant factor. I am agreeing with @ Moonraker argument that such language undermines the neutral tone that NPOV requires. I also don't think it's appropriate to go into such detail in the lead with so many citations on the issue. IntrepidContributor (talk) 23:46, 1 January 2025 (UTC)
  • :@Newimpartial, you reverted my edit [https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=COVID-19_lab_leak_theory&diff=prev&oldid=1266731796]. Please can you show how the "misplaced" is supported by sources? Frutos et al offer innocent reasons for why a virus may break out in proximity of labs, but doesn't call the suspicion misplaced, literally or figuratively. IntrepidContributor (talk) 00:24, 2 January 2025 (UTC)
  • ::To answer your question: like TarnishedPath, I find that the second chapter linked above (by Lewandowsky, Jacobs and Neil) provides more than sufficient support for "misplaced suspicion". Newimpartial (talk) 00:37, 2 January 2025 (UTC)
  • :::Lewandowsky et al is a completely unsuitable source due to their lack of relevant expertise, with only one minor exception among the authors, while Frutos et al are recognized experts and their work is a review article. The term 'misplaced suspicion' is thus unsupported by appropriate sources, which must be review articles at the very least. Since Frutos et al. do not describe the suspicion as 'misplaced,' using this term violates Wikipedia's NPOV policy. Please undo your revert. IntrepidContributor (talk) 01:00, 2 January 2025 (UTC)
  • ::::I am not understanding your concern about the source: perhaps you believe "misplaced suspicion" is biomedical information to which WP:MEDRS applies, but I do not believe the community agrees with that interpretation. Newimpartial (talk) 01:20, 2 January 2025 (UTC)
  • :::::The concern is primarily NPOV, not RS (or MEDRS). We cannot rise Lewandowsky et al to the level of review articles like Frutos to dismiss the relevance of lab's proximity to the outbreak as 'misplaced', particularly when expressed in Wikipedia's voice. IntrepidContributor (talk) 01:47, 2 January 2025 (UTC)
  • ::::::I see no NPOV issues. WP:WEIGHT is clear that we go with the majority viewpoints as expressed in reliable sources and that we don't pander to WP:FRINGE. TarnishedPathtalk 09:44, 2 January 2025 (UTC)
  • :::But can you provide a specific text excerpt that directly states that the argument about the proximity of the labs to the outbreak is based on misplaced suspicion? If not, this would be original research, that is, taking what the sources say and applying an editor's unique synthesis. Lardlegwarmers (talk) 01:46, 2 January 2025 (UTC)
  • ::::To answer your question, I do not need to WP:SATISFY you about this. It is simply not the case that a paraphrase with which you do not personally agree is therefore WP:SYNTH. At least two editors who have read the chapter in question are convinced that it supports the current article text. Newimpartial (talk) 03:44, 2 January 2025 (UTC)
  • :@TarnishedPath, you reverted my attempt to combine two sentences in one, making the counterargument to the proximity suspicion clearer [https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=COVID-19_lab_leak_theory&diff=prev&oldid=1266735816]. As per WP:LEAD, the lead should be concise and summarize the article, yet this proximity issue is hardly even covered in article. It hardly even belongs in the lead at all. IntrepidContributor (talk) 00:46, 2 January 2025 (UTC)
  • ::I see no weighting issues with the lead given the size of the article. TarnishedPathtalk 09:42, 2 January 2025 (UTC)
  • :::If you don't see the issue other editors do, then we might benefit from putting this to the community through an RfC. IntrepidContributor (talk) 20:11, 14 January 2025 (UTC)
  • ::::The only other editor besides you pushing your position has been Lardlegwarmers, who notably has been recently topic banned from COVID-19. I don't see that a RFC is needed. If you want to go ahead though knock yourself out. Might be best to wait until the current one is finished if you do wish to go ahead as this talk page is quite crowded. TarnishedPathtalk 22:47, 14 January 2025 (UTC)
  • :::::Calling for adherence to WP:NPOV is not "pushing," and Lardlegwarmers not only editor advocating this position here. Mentioning his topic ban, which you had hand in, looks very much like flexing muscles, which doesn't belong on this talk page. We are WP:HERE to improve this article. IntrepidContributor (talk) 07:33, 15 January 2025 (UTC)
  • ::::::@IntrepidContributor, you might want to go re-read the AN/I discussion because you will find I've had zero involvement in it. I'll await your retraction. TarnishedPathtalk 09:38, 15 January 2025 (UTC)
  • :::::::I am mistaken and will duly retract my statement when you retract your statement that I and Lardlegwarmers are only ones advocating a position when it is very clearly three editors including Moonraker. IntrepidContributor (talk) 09:54, 15 January 2025 (UTC)
  • ::::::::@IntrepidContributor my read of Moonraker's comments was that they were asking questions. I couldn't see a position from that. If I'm wrong my apologies, but I didn't read that they had a position. TarnishedPathtalk 10:03, 15 January 2025 (UTC)
  • :::::::::In most topic areas, where cooperative editing is the norm, editors raise concerns calmly and gently, exactly like Moonraker does. But I think you knew that already. IntrepidContributor (talk) 14:33, 15 January 2025 (UTC)

Noting that ExtraJesus.. blocked as sock of Raxythecat, Intrepid Contribuor topic banned from this area, Lardlegwarmers blocked for a week - for violation of their TBan from this area. — Preceding unsigned comment added by Doug Weller (talkcontribs) 15:41, 19 January 2025 (UTC)

Lab Leak vs Manufactured Virus

The page often treats the (serious) lab leak theory and the “manufactured virus” theory as one and the same. It should be consistently covering (only) the former, as the lab leak theory is about the natural virus, and hence they cannot be conflated. 2001:FB1:7D:CF9F:CDE0:C562:A669:A692 (talk) 18:27, 20 January 2025 (UTC)

:except they were at the time conflated. Slatersteven (talk) 18:38, 20 January 2025 (UTC)

{{Clear}}

Broader question: how is the absence of direct evidence supporting a lab leak a remotely valid argument?

{{hat|WP:NOTFORUM}}

One of the principal arguments against a potential lab leak is the absence of direct evidence that COVID-19 previously existed in a lab. This would be a useful point had the Chinese government permitted any third party investigators even a modicum of access to the WIV laboratory.

Of course, they've done the opposite. The WHO investigative team was refused access to the lab or virtually any useful relevant data on the lab's activities.

On these facts, it is outrageously misleading to note the absence of direct evidence that covid came from WIV without also saying that no third party has ever had a chance to find any. 2600:4040:9ADA:C00:EDD3:8D63:3337:A122 (talk) 14:01, 27 January 2025 (UTC)

:No, as thEre is none. Do you have a source that says "no third party has ever had a chance to find any"? Slatersteven (talk) 14:09, 27 January 2025 (UTC)

::I mean there's a

::Do you want me to disprove the possibility that China secretly permitted a rigorous third party review of the lab that found no evidence of a lab leak? And somehow chose not to publicize such a favorable result?

::If this is standard of review, I'm happy to have made you say this publicly so third parties can decide whether or not they agree with me 2600:1017:B81A:8A35:FD2F:8A9A:D552:B338 (talk) 15:00, 27 January 2025 (UTC)

:Neither Wikipedia articles nor talk pages are a place for expressing outrage at governments or the scientific establishment, or whatever else you think might be deserving of outrage. If you have a reliable source stating something instead, it may be assessed and its statement included in proportion to its relative prominence. Alpha3031 (tc) 14:10, 27 January 2025 (UTC)

{{hab}}

{{Clear}}

CIA has confirmed Covid likely to have come from Chinese lab leak.

{{hat|No need for another thread on the same issue when there are other open discussions.}}

This Wikipedia article is inaccurate and factually outdated. The CIA has recently confirmed that covid likely leaked from a lab in China. This article claims it’s a controversial conspiratorial claim that isn’t backed by evidence, which is untrue. Please update the article to reflect these new findings so that Wikipedia stays accurate and politically unbiased.

source:

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/cia-now-says-covid-19-more-likely-have-come-lab-2025-01-25/ 2601:447:C601:930:DDA7:D8F8:AF60:ADD6 (talk) 18:52, 3 February 2025 (UTC)

{{hab}}