Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential

{{short description|Non-conventional oceanographic parameters}}

Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) is one of such non-conventional oceanographic parameters influencing the tropical cyclone intensity.{{Cite journal|last1=Mainelli|first1=Michelle|last2=DeMaria|first2=Mark|last3=Shay|first3=Lynn K.|last4=Goni|first4=Gustavo|date=2008-02-01|title=Application of Oceanic Heat Content Estimation to Operational Forecasting of Recent Atlantic Category 5 Hurricanes|url=https://journals.ametsoc.org/waf/article/23/1/3/39117/Application-of-Oceanic-Heat-Content-Estimation-to|journal=Weather and Forecasting|language=en|volume=23|issue=1|pages=3–16|doi=10.1175/2007WAF2006111.1|bibcode=2008WtFor..23....3M|issn=0882-8156|doi-access=free}}{{Cite journal|last1=Shay|first1=Lynn K.|last2=Brewster|first2=Jodi K.|date=2010-06-01|title=Oceanic Heat Content Variability in the Eastern Pacific Ocean for Hurricane Intensity Forecasting|url=https://journals.ametsoc.org/mwr/article/138/6/2110/71158/Oceanic-Heat-Content-Variability-in-the-Eastern|journal=Monthly Weather Review|language=en|volume=138|issue=6|pages=2110–2131|doi=10.1175/2010MWR3189.1|bibcode=2010MWRv..138.2110S|s2cid=17361911 |issn=0027-0644|url-access=subscription}} The relationship between Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and cyclone intensity has been long studied in statistical intensity prediction schemes such as the National Hurricane Center Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) {{Cite journal|last1=DeMaria|first1=Mark|last2=Kaplan|first2=John|date=1994-06-01|title=A Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) for the Atlantic Basin|url=https://journals.ametsoc.org/waf/article/9/2/209/40482/A-Statistical-Hurricane-Intensity-Prediction|journal=Weather and Forecasting|language=en|volume=9|issue=2|pages=209–220|doi=10.1175/1520-0434(1994)009<0209:ASHIPS>2.0.CO;2|issn=0882-8156|doi-access=free}}{{Cite journal|last1=DeMaria|first1=Mark|last2=Mainelli|first2=Michelle|last3=Shay|first3=Lynn K.|last4=Knaff|first4=John A.|last5=Kaplan|first5=John|date=2005-08-01|title=Further Improvements to the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS)|url=https://journals.ametsoc.org/waf/article/20/4/531/38949/Further-Improvements-to-the-Statistical-Hurricane|journal=Weather and Forecasting|language=en|volume=20|issue=4|pages=531–543|doi=10.1175/WAF862.1|bibcode=2005WtFor..20..531D|issn=0882-8156|doi-access=free}} and Statistical Typhoon Intensity Prediction Scheme (STIPS).{{Cite journal|last1=Knaff|first1=John A.|last2=Sampson|first2=Charles R.|last3=DeMaria|first3=Mark|date=2005-08-01|title=An Operational Statistical Typhoon Intensity Prediction Scheme for the Western North Pacific|url=http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/waf863.1|journal=Weather and Forecasting|volume=20|issue=4|pages=688–699|doi=10.1175/waf863.1|bibcode=2005WtFor..20..688K|s2cid=10109308 |issn=1520-0434|doi-access=free}} STIPS is run at the Naval Research Laboratory in Monterey, California, and is provided to Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC) to make cyclone intensity forecasts in the western North Pacific, South Pacific, and Indian Oceans. In most of the cyclone models, SST is the only oceanographic parameter representing heat exchange. However, cyclones have long been known to interact with the deeper layers of ocean rather than sea surface alone.{{Cite journal|last=Emanuel|first=Kerry A.|date=1986-03-01|title=An Air-Sea Interaction Theory for Tropical Cyclones. Part I: Steady-State Maintenance|url=https://journals.ametsoc.org/jas/article/43/6/585/21614/An-Air-Sea-Interaction-Theory-for-Tropical|journal=Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences|language=en|volume=43|issue=6|pages=585–605|doi=10.1175/1520-0469(1986)043<0585:AASITF>2.0.CO;2|issn=0022-4928|doi-access=free}} Using a coupled ocean atmospheric model, Mao et al.,{{Cite book|last=Mao|first=Qi|url=http://worldcat.org/oclc/1074227873|title=Influence of large-scale initial oceanic mixed layer depth on tropical cyclones.|date=2000|oclc=1074227873}} concluded that the rate of intensification and final intensity of cyclone were sensitive to the initial spatial distribution of the mixed layer rather than to SST alone. Similarly, Namias and Canyan{{Cite journal|last1=Namias|first1=J.|last2=Cayan|first2=D. R.|date=1981-11-20|title=Large-Scale Air-Sea Interactions and Short-Period Climatic Fluctuatioins|url=http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.214.4523.869|journal=Science|volume=214|issue=4523|pages=869–876|doi=10.1126/science.214.4523.869|pmid=17782430|bibcode=1981Sci...214..869N|s2cid=10522169|issn=0036-8075|url-access=subscription}} observed patterns of lower atmospheric anomalies being more consistent with the upper ocean thermal structure variability than SST.