Volfefe index
{{Short description|Stock market index}}
File:Twitter activity of Donald Trump.png from his first tweet in May 2009. (Retweets are not included.)]]
The Volfefe Index was a stock market index of volatility in market sentiment for US Treasury bonds caused by tweets by President Donald Trump.
Bloomberg News observed Volfefe was created due to the statistical significance of Trump tweets on bond prices. ABC News Online posited Volfefe could help analyze interest rate risk in the face of "unpredictable" activity on social media by Trump.
Etymology
The name "Volfefe" is a portmanteau of the words volatility and covfefe, the latter being a word (widely presumed to be a typographical error) posted in a 2017 tweet by Trump.{{citation|url=https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-markets-trump-volatility/volfefe-a-volatility-index-for-the-trump-era-idUSKCN1VU1XR|access-date=September 10, 2019|work=Reuters|title='Volfefe': a volatility index for the Trump era|date=September 9, 2019|first=Saqib Iqbal |last=Ahmed}}{{citation|url=https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/09/investing/jpmorgan-trump-tweets-volfefe-index/|access-date=September 9, 2019|title=JPMorgan has created a 'Volfefe Index' to track how Trump's tweets move markets|date=September 9, 2019|work=CNN|first=Julia|last=Horowitz}}
Creation
Volfefe was launched by JPMorgan Chase on September 9, 2019.{{citation|url=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-09/jpmorgan-creates-volfefe-index-to-track-trump-tweet-impact|title= JPMorgan Creates 'Volfefe' Index to Track Trump Tweet Impact|first=Tracy|last= Alloway|work= Bloomberg News|date=September 9, 2019|access-date=September 10, 2019}}{{citation|url=https://www.cbsnews.com/news/volfefe-index-jpmorgan-chase-creates-index-to-track-market-impact-of-president-trumps-tweets/|work=CBS News|access-date=September 10, 2019|date=September 9, 2019|first=Kate|last=Gibson|title='Volfefe index' tracks market impact of Trump's tweets}}
Methods
In forming the basis of the methodology behind Volfefe, JPMorgan Chase used software to analyse the corpus of Trump's tweets.{{citation|access-date=September 10, 2019|date=September 9, 2019|url=https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/jpmorgan-volvefe-index-on-impact-of-trump-tweets-on-market-volatility-2019-9-1028508499|first=Yusuf|last=Khan|work=Business Insider|title=A JPMorgan bot analyzed 14,000 Trump tweets and found they're having an increasingly sharp impact on markets|archive-date=November 10, 2021|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20211110152618/https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/jpmorgan-volvefe-index-on-impact-of-trump-tweets-on-market-volatility-2019-9|url-status=dead}}{{citation|url=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/are-trump-tweets-influencing-bond-volatility-jp-morgans-volfefe-index-aims-to-find-out-2019-09-09|access-date=September 10, 2019|work=MarketWatch|date=September 9, 2019|title=J.P. Morgan made a 'Volfefe' index to track how Trump tweets move the bond market — here's what it shows|first=Barbara|last=Kollmeyer}}{{citation|url=https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/09/10/volfefe-index-aims-track-just-donald-trumps-tweets-move-markets/|work=The Daily Telegraph|access-date=September 10, 2019|date=September 10, 2019|title=The Volfefe Index aims to track just how Donald Trump's tweets move markets|first=Louis|last=Ashworth}} 14,000 tweets were used in the analysis to form the initial projections for their software. Their analysts determined that there were direct correlations between tweets and subsequent market movements. These market movements were most notably evidenced when the tweet specifically references financial matters including the US Federal Reserve. The tweets issued during the working day of the New York Stock Exchange were more likely to cause a change in market sentiment; however, it was noted that the tweets can come at any time of day and thus have an effect on markets around the world. Key words in tweets often include "China", "billion", "products", "Democrats", "great", "dollars", "tariffs" and "trade".{{citation|url=https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-10/trump-volfefe-index/11495726|title= Donald Trump's impact on market volatility tracked by new JP Morgan 'Volfefe' index|first= David|last=Chau|work= ABC News Online|date=September 10, 2019|access-date=September 10, 2019}}{{unbulleted list citebundle |
1={{cite news|url=https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/08/donald-trump-is-tweeting-more-and-its-impacting-the-bond-market.html|access-date=September 10, 2019|work=CNBC|title=JP Morgan has created an index to track the effect of Trump's tweets on financial markets: 'Volfefe index'|date=September 8, 2019|first=Emma|last=Newburger}}
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2={{cite news|url=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/much-trump-tweets-swing-market-142834256.html|access-date=September 10, 2019|via=Yahoo! Finance|agency=Associated Press|title=How much do Trump tweets swing the market? Check 'Volfefe'|date=September 9, 2019}}
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Analysis
Bloomberg News noted, "JPMorgan’s 'Volfefe Index,' named after Trump’s mysterious covfefe tweet from May 2017, suggests that the president’s electronic musings are having a statistically significant impact on Treasury yields."
ABC News Online commented JP Morgan created Volfefe, "to measure how much impact Mr Trump's unpredictable tweets have on US interest rates".
See also
References
{{Reflist}}
External links
{{Commons category|Donald Trump and Twitter}}
- {{Twitter | POTUS45 | President Trump (official)}}
- {{Twitter | realDonaldTrump | Donald Trump (personal)}}
- [https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2017/politics/trump-tweets/ Trump Tweets] at CNN
- [https://factba.se/topic/deleted-tweets List of Donald Trump deleted tweets] on Factbase
- [https://www.trumptwitterarchive.com Trump Twitter archive] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210205085520/http://www.trumptwitterarchive.com/ |date=2021-02-05 }} Searchable database
- {{Twitter | Trump2Cash | Trump2Cash (stock trading bot)}}
{{Donald Trump}}
Category:Donald Trump and social media
Category:Internet properties established in 2019
Category:E-government in the United States
Category:Mass media-related controversies in the United States
Category:2010s in Internet culture