Vulnerability Discovery Model

A Vulnerability Discovery Model (VDM) uses discovery event data with software reliability models for predicting the same. A thorough presentation of VDM techniques is available in.{{cite thesis |type=PhD |last=Johnston |first=Reuben |date=August 31, 2018 | title=A Multivariate Bayesian Approach to Modeling Vulnerability Discovery in the Software Security Lifecycle |publisher=The George Washington University}} Numerous model implementations are available in the MCMCBayes open source repository. Several VDM examples include:

• Alhazmi-Malaiya: Time based model (Alhazmi-Malaiya Logistic (AML) model)O. H. Alhazmi and Y. K. Malaiya, “Quantitative vulnerability assessment of systems software,” in Proc. Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium, January 2005, pp. 615–620.
• Alhazmi-Malaiya: Effort based model
• Rescorla: Quadratic Model and Exponential Model E. Rescola, “Is finding security holes a good idea?,” Security and Privacy, pp. 14–19, Jan./Feb. 2005.
• Anderson: Thermodynamic ModelR. J. Anderson, “Security in open versus closed systems—The dance of Boltzmann, Coase and Moore,” in Open Source Software: Economics, Law and Policy. Toulouse, France, June 20–21, 2002.
• Kim: Weibull ModelHyunChul Joh, Jinyoo Kim, Yashwant K. Malaiya, "Vulnerability Discovery Modeling Using Weibull Distribution," issre, pp. 299–300, 2008 19th International Symposium on Software Reliability Engineering, 2008.
• Linear Model
• Hump-Shaped Model{{Cite journal|last1=Anand|first1=Adarsh|last2=Bhatt|first2=Navneet|date=2016-05-12|title=Vulnerability Discovery Modeling and Weighted Criteria Based Ranking|journal=Journal of the Indian Society for Probability and Statistics|language=en|volume=17|issue=1|pages=1–10|doi=10.1007/s41096-016-0006-4|s2cid=111649745|issn=2364-9569}}
• Independent and Dependent Model{{Cite web|url=http://www.ijmems.in/assets/22-ijmems-si-vol.-2,-no.-4,-288%E2%80%93299,-2017.pdf|title=VDM}}
• Vulnerability Discovery Modeling using Bayesian model averaging{{Cite journal |author=Johnston|display-authors=etal | title=Bayesian-model averaging using MCMCBayes for web-browser vulnerability discovery | journal=Reliability Engineering & System Safety | volume=183 | date=March 2019 | pages=341–359 | doi=10.1016/j.ress.2018.11.030|s2cid=59222056 }}
• Multivariate Vulnerability Discovery Models {{Cite journal |author=Johnston|display-authors=etal | title=Multivariate models using MCMCBayes for web-browser vulnerability discovery | journal=Reliability Engineering & System Safety | volume=176 | date=August 2018 | pages=52–61 | doi=10.1016/j.ress.2018.03.024|s2cid=49323550 }}