division of Bennelong

Since 1984, federal electoral division boundaries in Australia have been determined at redistributions by a redistribution committee appointed by the Australian Electoral Commission. Redistributions occur for the boundaries of divisions in a particular state, and they occur every seven years, or sooner if a state's representation entitlement changes or when divisions of a state are malapportioned.{{cite web |last1=Muller |first1=Damon |title=The process of federal redistributions: a quick guide |url=https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1718/Quick_Guides/FederalRedistributions |website=Parliament of Australia |access-date=19 April 2022 |date=14 November 2017 |archive-date=23 May 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220523135724/https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1718/Quick_Guides/FederalRedistributions |url-status=live }}

File:Bennelong.jpg, the division's namesake]]

When the Division of Bennelong was created in 1949, it covered mainly the suburbs of Ryde, Hunters Hill and Lane Cove, all of which were (and still are) relatively affluent areas. It was originally created as a notionally marginal Liberal seat. However, the Liberal margin blew out in the Coalition's landslide victory that year, and for most of the next half-century it was a fairly safe to safe Liberal seat.

The seat's first member was Sir John Cramer, a minister in the Menzies government. In 1974, he handed the seat to John Howard, a minister in the Fraser government, and Leader of the Opposition from 1985 to 1989 and 1995 to 1996 before becoming Prime Minister of Australia from 1996 to 2007.

From 1949 to 1996, the Liberal hold on the seat was only seriously threatened four times; those were the only times that the seat was marginal against Labor. From 1998 onward, Bennelong became increasingly marginal, and this has been attributed to two factors. Firstly, the electoral boundary of Bennelong has been redrawn ("redistributed") numerous times, pushing it further westward into Labor-friendly territory near Paramatta. Successive redistributions eliminated Lane Cove and Hunters Hill in the east and incorporated Eastwood, Epping, Carlingford and middle-class Ermington in the north and west. Secondly, the demographic has changed as well: since the early 1990s, Eastwood and surrounding suburbs have seen an influx of migrants from China, Hong Kong, South Korea and India, who are relatively affluent and conservative, but are sensitive towards political policies on immigration and multiculturalism.{{cite book|title=The Battle for Bennelong: The adventures of Maxine McKew, aged 50something|author=Saville, Margot|publisher=Melbourne University Press|year=2007}}

In 1998, Prime Minister John Howard finished just short of a majority on the first count in the seat, and was only assured of re-election on the ninth count. He ultimately won a fairly comfortable 56 percent of the two-party-preferred vote.

In 2004, for the second time since becoming Prime Minister, Howard came up short of a majority in the first count for the seat. He was assured of re-election on the third count, ultimately winning 53.3 percent of the two-party-preferred vote. The two-party-preferred vote for the Liberals declined 3.4% in the 2004 election, contrary to a strong national trend to the Coalition (and a particularly strong one to the Coalition in outer-suburban metropolitan seats), making Bennelong a marginal seat at that time, with a margin of just 4.3%. The 2006 redistribution pushed this margin slightly further into Labor territory, due to the inclusion of the predominantly working-class and public housing suburb of Ermington in Bennelong's boundaries.{{cite web|title=Archive for the 'Federal Redistributions' Category|work=The Poll Bludger|url=http://www.pollbludger.com/category/federal-redistributions/|date=13 September 2006|access-date=2007-11-25|archive-date=7 July 2007|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20070707145811/http://www.pollbludger.com/category/federal-redistributions/|url-status=dead}} The Greens increased their vote at this election by 12.34% to 16.37% at this election, owing to the pre-selection of the high-profile Andrew Wilkie as candidate.

File:1699730661 1b1d7843d3 b.jpg]] File:Epping voting 07-1.jpg polling booth within Bennelong]] In the 2007 election, the incumbent Member for Bennelong, then-Prime Minister John Howard, lost the seat to Labor candidate Maxine McKew, after holding it for 33 years. This was only the second time in Australian history that an incumbent Prime Minister had been defeated in his own electorate, the first being Stanley Bruce in 1929. The election marked the first time a Labor candidate won, and also the first time a woman won the seat.

After the 2004 election, Howard sat on a margin of four percent, placing Bennelong just barely on the edge of seats that would fall to Labor in the event of a uniform swing that delivered it government.

As expected, the contest was very tight, and many media outlets listed Bennelong as a Labor gain on election night. In his nationwide speech conceding the election, Howard admitted it was "very likely" he had lost his own seat.{{cite web|title=Defeated Howard thanks Australia|work=ABC News|location=Australia|url=http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/24/2100335.htm|date=25 November 2007|access-date=2007-11-25|archive-date=27 November 2007|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20071127093820/http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/24/2100335.htm|url-status=dead}} Following initial reluctance to officially call the outcome (despite confidence of success),{{cite news|title=McKew refuses to call Bennelong|work=News.com.au|url=http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22817782-29277,00.html|date=25 November 2007|access-date=2007-12-01}}{{cite news|title=McKew confident but can wait to declare|work=The Australian|url=http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22820642-5013871,00.html|date=26 November 2007|access-date=2007-12-01|archive-date=28 November 2007|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20071128044738/http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22820642-5013871,00.html|url-status=dead}} McKew declared victory officially on 1 December.{{cite web|title=McKew declares victory in Bennelong|work=ABC News|location=Australia|url=http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/12/01/2106949.htm|date=1 December 2007|access-date=2007-12-01|archive-date=2 December 2007|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20071202092217/http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/12/01/2106949.htm|url-status=dead}}{{cite news|title=Maxine McKew claims victory in Bennelong|work=The Sydney Morning Herald|url=http://www.smh.com.au/news/National/Maxine-McKew-claims-victory-in-Bennelong/2007/12/01/1196394663899.html|date=1 December 2007|access-date=2007-12-01|archive-date=26 October 2012|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121026093815/http://www.smh.com.au/news/National/Maxine-McKew-claims-victory-in-Bennelong/2007/12/01/1196394663899.html|url-status=live}} At that time, the Australian Electoral Commission showed McKew ahead on a two-candidate-preferred basis, by 43,272 votes to 41,159;{{cite web|title=House of Representatives Division First Preferences|publisher=Australian Electoral Commission|url=http://results.aec.gov.au/13745/website/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-13745-105.htm|date=30 November 2007|access-date=2007-12-01|archive-date=20 July 2008|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080720200813/http://results.aec.gov.au/13745/Website/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-13745-105.htm|url-status=live}} however, pre-poll, postal and absent votes were still being counted and could possibly have affected the outcome.

Howard formally conceded defeat in Bennelong on 12 December.{{cite news|title=Finally, Howard admits McKew has it|work=The Sydney Morning Herald|url=http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/finally-howard-admits-mckew-has-it/2007/12/12/1197135541910.html|date=12 December 2007|access-date=2007-12-13|archive-date=22 February 2016|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160222080447/http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/finally-howard-admits-mckew-has-it/2007/12/12/1197135541910.html|url-status=live}} The Electoral Commission declared the seat, with 44,685 votes for McKew to 42,251 for Howard. McKew led for most of the night, and ultimately won on the 14th count after over three-fourths of Green preferences flowed to her. Voter turnout in Bennelong was 95%.{{cite web|title=House of Representatives Division First Preferences|publisher=Australian Electoral Commission|url=http://results.aec.gov.au/13745/website/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-13745-105.htm|date=11 December 2007|access-date=2007-12-13|archive-date=20 July 2008|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080720200813/http://results.aec.gov.au/13745/Website/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-13745-105.htm|url-status=live}}

For the 2010 federal election, the Liberal Party pre-selected former tennis professional and tennis commentator John Alexander to contest the marginal seat. McKew recontested the seat for Labor.{{cite news|url=http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/11/20/2749259.htm|work=ABC News|title=Four Liberals vying for Bennelong seat|date=20 November 2009|access-date=2010-02-28|archive-date=13 February 2010|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100213091947/http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/11/20/2749259.htm|url-status=dead}} After a long and high-profile campaign, Alexander won the seat back from Labor; he increased both the Liberals' two-party-preferred and primary vote for the first time since 2001, and gained the largest swing towards the Liberals since 1996. Alexander defeated McKew with a two-party-preferred swing of 4.52% (cf. the 2.58% national swing in the 2010 federal election), contributing to the Gillard government's loss of its parliamentary majority.{{cite web|url=http://results.aec.gov.au/15508/Website/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-15508-105.htm|publisher=Australian Electoral Commission|work=Election 2010|title=Bennelong, NSW|year=2010|access-date=26 January 2015|archive-date=4 March 2016|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160304023638/http://results.aec.gov.au/15508/Website/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-15508-105.htm|url-status=live}}

McKew said Labor had failed to repeat the professional and targeted campaign of 2007. She also conceded that the removal of Kevin Rudd as Prime Minister had been a factor in the party's poor showing, along with the Government's dumping of the emissions trading scheme and a lacklustre national campaign.{{cite news | url=http://www.news.com.au/features/federal-election/fighting-begins-as-labor-plays-blame-game/story-e6frfllr-1225908347773 | work=news.com.au | title=Labor bloodbath begins and Maxine McKew throws the first punch | date=22 August 2010 | archive-date=12 September 2012 | access-date=14 February 2012 | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120912212550/http://www.news.com.au/features/federal-election/fighting-begins-as-labor-plays-blame-game/story-e6frfllr-1225908347773 | url-status=live }}

Alexander picked up a four-percent swing in the 2013 federal election as the Coalition returned to government, returning Bennelong to its traditional status as a safe Liberal seat. He was reelected in 2016 with a small swing in his favour, even as the Coalition barely won a second term. On 11 November 2017, Alexander resigned his seat over questions of his eligibility to stand under section 44 of the Constitution,{{Cite news|url=http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-11/john-alexander-to-resign-amid-dual-citizenship-concerns/9138814|title=Alexander resigns from parliament, says he's 'most likely' a dual citizen|date=11 November 2017|work=ABC News|access-date=11 November 2017|archive-date=11 November 2017|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20171111031333/http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-11/john-alexander-to-resign-amid-dual-citizenship-concerns/9138814|url-status=live}} necessitating a by-election.

{{main|2017 Bennelong by-election}}

Amid the 2017–18 Australian parliamentary eligibility crisis, the trigger for the by-election was the resignation of Liberal incumbent John Alexander effective 11 November 2017. A few weeks following the increased clarity which came from the judgment of the High Court of Australia sitting as the Court of Disputed Returns on 27 October 2017 further determining dual citizenship ineligibility under Section 44 of the Constitution, Alexander resigned due to a belief that he may have held British citizenship at the time of his nomination and election, meaning he would be ineligible under Section 44 of the Constitution to sit in the Parliament of Australia. Alexander renounced any British citizenship he may have held, or otherwise been eligible for, in order to nominate for election again.{{cite news|url=http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/john-alexander-confirms-eligibility-to-stand-in-byelection-on-advice-from-uk-home-office-20171117-gznpgd.html|title=John Alexander confirms eligibility to stand in byelection on advice from UK Home Office|last=Robertson|first=James|work=The Sydney Morning Herald|date=17 November 2017|access-date=18 November 2017|archive-date=18 November 2017|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20171118044614/http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/john-alexander-confirms-eligibility-to-stand-in-byelection-on-advice-from-uk-home-office-20171117-gznpgd.html|url-status=live}}

Alexander won the 2017 Bennelong by-election despite an approximate five percent two-party swing away to Labor candidate Kristina Keneally which made the seat marginal.{{Cite web |url=http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-12-16/liberal-john-alexander-to-win-bennelong-by-election-antony-green/9265316 |title=Bennelong by-election: Liberal John Alexander wins, Labor buoyed by swing: ABC 16 December 2017 |access-date=17 December 2017 |archive-date=18 December 2017 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20171218124136/http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-12-16/liberal-john-alexander-to-win-bennelong-by-election-antony-green/9265316 |url-status=live }}

Alexander was not challenged for preselection for the 2019 federal election. With a margin of 9.7% from the 2016 election, Alexander competed against high profile neurosurgeon Brian Owler, who formerly chaired the Australian Medical Association and has worked closely with the NSW Government to be the face of a successful anti-speeding campaign for road safety. Owler's eminent persona was aided by several inflammatory remarks from Alexander, ultimately leading to a 2.8% swing away to Labor, which reduced the Liberal Party's hold on the seat to a margin of 6.9%. Alexander, who was standing for the 5th time as candidate for Bennelong, is widely regarded to have built a strong personal vote in the seat. This has led to Bennelong having a relatively stable two party preferred result from the last 3 federal elections, in the Coalition's favour. Alexander declared victory shortly after counting had passed 50%.

On 12 November 2021, Alexander revealed that he would not contest the seat at the forthcoming federal election. ABC election analyst Antony Green pointed to the loss of Alexander's high personal vote as a vulnerability for the Coalition, giving the Labor Party a strong chance to reclaim the seat after McKew was unseated by Alexander in 2010. Former Ryde mayor and Labor candidate Jerome Laxale took the seat from the Liberals with a 7.9% swing in his favour, making him the second Labor member ever to win it.[https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2022/guide/benn: Bennelong - Federal Election 2022] The loss of the seat has been attributed to the notably large swings against the Liberal Party among Chinese Australian voters which has cost the Liberal Party many key seats.{{cite web |last1=Knott |first1=Matthew |title=Chinese-Australian voters punished Coalition for hostile rhetoric |url=https://www.smh.com.au/national/chinese-australian-voters-punished-coalition-for-hostile-rhetoric-20220525-p5aoem.html |website=Sydney Morning Herald |date=25 May 2022 |access-date=3 February 2024 |archive-date=3 February 2024 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240203085313/https://www.smh.com.au/national/chinese-australian-voters-punished-coalition-for-hostile-rhetoric-20220525-p5aoem.html |url-status=live }}

{{main|Electoral results for the Division of Bennelong}}

{{Excerpt|Results of the 2025 Australian federal election in New South Wales|section=Bennelong}}

{{Excerpt|Results of the 2022 Australian federal election in New South Wales|section=Bennelong}}

As of the 2021 Census significant statistics included a population of 191,219 with a median age of 37 years old with a median weekly household income of $2,124.

Further information can be found from recent Censuses, most recently the Australian Bureau of Statistics 2021 Census profile.{{Census 2021 AUS| id=CED103 | name=Bennelong |access-date=3 November 2023 | quick=on}}

{{reflist}}

• [http://www.aec.gov.au/profiles/b/Bennelong.htm Division of Bennelong – Australian Electoral Commission]

{{Australian federal divisions of New South Wales}}

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Category:Electoral divisions of Australia

Category:Constituencies established in 1949

Category:1949 establishments in Australia