integrated assessment modelling

File:NGFS Climate Scenarios 2022 CO2 Emissions.png in the various NGFS climate scenarios 2022, based on the REMIND-MAgPIE model by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact ResearchOliver Richters et al.: [https://www.ngfs.net/sites/default/files/media/2022/09/15/technical_documentation-_ngfs_scenarios_phase_3.pdf NGFS Climate Scenario Database: Technical Documentation V3.1], 2022. NGFS Climate Scenarios Data Set, Zenodo, {{doi|10.5281/zenodo.5782903}}.]]

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has relied on process-based integrated assessment models (PB-IAMSimon Hollnaicher;

Assessing Feasibility with Value-laden Models; https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-70714-2; J.B. Metzler Berlin, Heidelberg) to quantify mitigation scenarios.{{Cite book|title=Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change : Working Group III Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report.|last=Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Staff.|isbn=978-1107654815|oclc=994399607|date = 2015-01-26|publisher=Cambridge University Press }}{{Cite book|title=Global warming of 1.5°C|last=Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, issuing body.|oclc=1056192590}} They have been used to explore different pathways for staying within climate policy targets such as the 1.5 °C target agreed upon in the Paris Agreement.{{Cite book|title=Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 °C|last=Rogelj, J. Popp, A. Calvin, K.V. Luderer, G. Emmerling, J. Gernaat, D. Fujimori, S. Strefler, J. Hasegawa, T. Marangoni, G. Krey, V. Kriegler, E. Riahi, K. van Vuuren, D.P. Doelman, J. Drouet, L. Edmonds, J. Fricko, O. Harmsen, M. Havlik, P. Humpenöder, F. Stehfest, E. Tavoni, M.|date=2018-03-05|publisher=Nature Publishing Group|oclc=1039547304}} Moreover, these models have underpinned research including energy policy assessment{{Cite journal|last1=Böhringer|first1=Christoph|last2=Rutherford|first2=Thomos F.|date=September 2009|title=Integrated assessment of energy policies: Decomposing top-down and bottom-up|journal=Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control|volume=33|issue=9|pages=1648–1661|doi=10.1016/j.jedc.2008.12.007|issn=0165-1889}} and simulate the Shared socioeconomic pathways.{{Cite web|url=https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-how-shared-socioeconomic-pathways-explore-future-climate-change|title=Explainer: How 'Shared Socioeconomic Pathways' explore future climate change|date=2018-04-19|website=Carbon Brief|access-date=2019-06-02}}{{Cite journal|last1=Riahi|first1=Keywan|last2=van Vuuren|first2=Detlef P.|last3=Kriegler|first3=Elmar|last4=Edmonds|first4=Jae|last5=O’Neill|first5=Brian C.|last6=Fujimori|first6=Shinichiro|last7=Bauer|first7=Nico|last8=Calvin|first8=Katherine|authorlink8=Katherine Calvin|last9=Dellink|first9=Rob|date=2017-01-01|title=The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview|journal=Global Environmental Change|volume=42|pages=153–168|doi=10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.009|issn=0959-3780|doi-access=free|bibcode=2017GEC....42..153R |hdl=10044/1/78069|hdl-access=free}} Notable modelling frameworks include IMAGE,{{Cite book|title=Integrated assessment of global environmental change with IMAGE 3.0 : model description and policy applications|last=Stehfest, E. (Elke)|isbn=9789491506710|oclc=884831253|year = 2014|publisher=PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency }} MESSAGEix,{{Cite journal|last1=Huppmann|first1=Daniel|last2=Gidden|first2=Matthew|last3=Fricko|first3=Oliver|last4=Kolp|first4=Peter|last5=Orthofer|first5=Clara|last6=Pimmer|first6=Michael|last7=Kushin|first7=Nikolay|last8=Vinca|first8=Adriano|last9=Mastrucci|first9=Alessio|date=February 2019|title=The MESSAGE Integrated Assessment Model and the ix modeling platform (ixmp): An open framework for integrated and cross-cutting analysis of energy, climate, the environment, and sustainable development|journal=Environmental Modelling & Software|volume=112|pages=143–156|doi=10.1016/j.envsoft.2018.11.012|s2cid=57375075 |url=http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15157/1/manuscript%20%20The%20MESSAGEix.pdf}} AIM/GCE,{{Citation|last1=Fujimori|first1=Shinichiro|title=AIM/CGE V2.0 Model Formula|date=2017|work=Post-2020 Climate Action|pages=201–303|publisher=Springer Singapore|isbn=9789811038686|last2=Masui|first2=Toshihiko|last3=Matsuoka|first3=Yuzuru|doi=10.1007/978-981-10-3869-3_12}} GCAM,{{Cite journal|last1=Calvin|first1=Katherine|last2=Patel|first2=Pralit|last3=Clarke|first3=Leon|last4=Asrar|first4=Ghassem|last5=Bond-Lamberty|first5=Ben|last6=Cui|first6=Ryna Yiyun|last7=Di Vittorio|first7=Alan|last8=Dorheim|first8=Kalyn|last9=Edmonds|first9=Jae|date=2019-02-15|title=GCAM v5.1: representing the linkages between energy, water, land, climate, and economic systems|journal=Geoscientific Model Development|volume=12|issue=2|pages=677–698|doi=10.5194/gmd-12-677-2019|bibcode=2019GMD....12..677C|issn=1991-9603|doi-access=free}} REMIND-MAgPIE,{{Cite journal|last1=Luderer|first1=Gunnar|last2=Leimbach|first2=Marian|last3=Bauer|first3=Nico|last4=Kriegler|first4=Elmar|last5=Baumstark|first5=Lavinia|last6=Bertram|first6=Christoph|last7=Giannousakis|first7=Anastasis|last8=Hilaire|first8=Jerome|last9=Klein|first9=David|date=2015|title=Description of the REMIND Model (Version 1.6)|journal=SSRN Working Paper Series|doi=10.2139/ssrn.2697070|s2cid=11719708|issn=1556-5068}}{{Cite journal|last1=Baumstark|first1=Lavinia|last2=Bauer|first2=Nico|last3=Benke|first3=Falk|last4=Bertram|first4=Christoph|last5=Bi|first5=Stephen|last6=Gong|first6=Chen Chris|last7=Dietrich|first7=Jan Philipp|last8=Dirnaichner|first8=Alois|last9=Giannousakis|first9=Anastasis|last10=Hilaire|first10=Jérôme|last11=Klein|first11=David|date=2021-10-28|title=REMIND2.1: transformation and innovation dynamics of the energy-economic system within climate and sustainability limits|url=https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/14/6571/2021/|journal=Geoscientific Model Development|language=English|volume=14|issue=10|pages=6571–6603|doi=10.5194/gmd-14-6571-2021|bibcode=2021GMD....14.6571B |issn=1991-959X|doi-access=free}} and WITCH-GLOBIOM.{{Cite journal|last1=Bosetti|first1=Valentina|last2=Carraro|first2=Carlo|last3=Galeotti|first3=Marzio|last4=Massetti|first4=Emanuele|last5=Tavoni|first5=Massimo|date=2006|title=WITCH - A World Induced Technical Change Hybrid Model|journal=SSRN Working Paper Series|doi=10.2139/ssrn.948382|s2cid=155558316|issn=1556-5068|url=http://www.unive.it/pag/fileadmin/user_upload/dipartimenti/economia/doc/Pubblicazioni_scientifiche/working_papers/2006/WP_DSE_Carraro_46_06.pdf}}{{Cite journal|last1=Gambhir|first1=Ajay|last2=Butnar|first2=Isabela|last3=Li|first3=Pei-Hao|last4=Smith|first4=Pete|last5=Strachan|first5=Neil|date=2019-05-08|title=A Review of Criticisms of Integrated Assessment Models and Proposed Approaches to Address These, through the Lens of BECCS|journal=Energies|volume=12|issue=9|pages=1747|doi=10.3390/en12091747|issn=1996-1073|url=http://aura.abdn.ac.uk/bitstream/2164/12605/1/A_Review_of_Criticisms_of_Integrated_Assessment_Models_and_Proposed_Approaches_to_Address_These_through_the_Lens_of_BECCS.pdf|doi-access=free}} While these scenarios are highly policy-relevant, interpretation of the scenarios should be done with care.{{Cite journal|last1=Huppmann|first1=Daniel|author2-link=Joeri Rogelj|last2=Rogelj|first2=Joeri|last3=Kriegler|first3=Elmar|last4=Krey|first4=Volker|last5=Riahi|first5=Keywan|date=2018-10-15|title=A new scenario resource for integrated 1.5 °C research|journal=Nature Climate Change|volume=8|issue=12|pages=1027–1030|doi=10.1038/s41558-018-0317-4|bibcode=2018NatCC...8.1027H|s2cid=92398486|issn=1758-678X|url=http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15519/1/Huppmann_2018_NCC_postprint.pdf}}

Non-equilibrium models include{{Cite journal|last1=Hafner|first1=Sarah|last2=Anger-Kraavi|first2=Annela|last3=Monasterolo|first3=Irene|last4=Jones|first4=Aled|date=2020-11-01|title=Emergence of New Economics Energy Transition Models: A Review|url=https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921800919307475|journal=Ecological Economics|language=en|volume=177|pages=106779|doi=10.1016/j.ecolecon.2020.106779|bibcode=2020EcoEc.17706779H |s2cid=224854628 |issn=0921-8009|url-access=subscription}} those based on econometric equations and evolutionary economics (such as E3ME),{{Cite journal|last1=Mercure|first1=Jean-Francois|last2=Pollit|first2=Hector|last3=Neil|first3=Edward|last4=Holden|first4=Philip|last5=Unnada|first5=Unnada|date=2018|title=Environmental impact assessment for climate change policy with the simulation-based integrated assessment model E3ME-FTT-GENIE|journal=Energy Strategy Reviews|language=en|volume=20|pages=195–208|doi=10.1016/j.esr.2018.03.003|issn=2211-467X|doi-access=free|arxiv=1707.04870|bibcode=2018EneSR..20..195M }} and agent-based models (such as the agent-based DSK-model). These models typically do not assume rational and representative agents, nor market equilibrium in the long term.

Cost-benefit integrated assessment models are the main tools for calculating the social cost of carbon, or the marginal social cost of emitting one more tonne of carbon (as carbon dioxide) into the atmosphere at any point in time.{{Cite web|url=https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-social-cost-carbon|title=Q&A: The social cost of carbon|date=2017-02-14|website=Carbon Brief|access-date=2019-06-01}} For instance, the DICE,{{cite journal |last1=Nordhaus |first1=William |title=An optimal transition path for controlling greenhouse gases |journal=Science |date=1992 |volume=258 |issue=5086 |pages=1315–1319 |doi=10.1126/science.258.5086.1315|pmid=17778354 |bibcode=1992Sci...258.1315N |s2cid=23232493 }} PAGE,{{Cite journal|title=Climate policy implications of nonlinear decline of Arctic land permafrost and other cryosphere elements|last=Yumashev, Dmitry Hope, Chris Schaefer, Kevin Riemann-Campe, Kathrin Iglesias-Suarez, Fernando Jafarov, Elchin Burke, Eleanor J. Young, Paul J. Elshorbany, Yasin Whiteman, Gail|journal=Nature Communications|date=2019-04-23|volume=10|issue=1|page=1900|doi=10.1038/s41467-019-09863-x|pmid=31015475|pmc=6478735|bibcode=2019NatCo..10.1900Y|oclc=1099183857}} and FUND{{Cite web|url=http://www.fund-model.org/home|title=FUND - Climate Framework for Uncertainty, Negotiation and Distribution|website=www.fund-model.org|access-date=2019-06-01}} models have been used by the US Interagency Working Group to calculate the social cost of carbon and its results have been used for regulatory impact analysis.{{Cite book|title=Technical support document, technical update of the social cost of carbon for regulatory impact analysis--under executive order 12886|last=United States. Interagency Working Group on Social Cost of Carbon, issuing body. Council of Economic Advisers (U.S.), sponsoring body.|oclc=959713749}}

This type of modelling is carried out to find the total cost of climate impacts, which are generally considered a negative externality not captured by conventional markets. In order to correct such a market failure, for instance by using a carbon tax, the cost of emissions is required. However, the estimates of the social cost of carbon are highly uncertain{{Cite journal|last1=Ricke|first1=Katharine|last2=Drouet|first2=Laurent|last3=Caldeira|first3=Ken|last4=Tavoni|first4=Massimo|date=2019-03-25|title=Author Correction: Country-level social cost of carbon|journal=Nature Climate Change|volume=9|issue=7|pages=567|doi=10.1038/s41558-019-0455-3|bibcode=2019NatCC...9..567R|issn=1758-678X|doi-access=free}} and will remain so for the foreseeable future.{{Cite journal|last=Pezzey|first=John C. V.|date=2018-11-12|title=Why the social cost of carbon will always be disputed|journal=Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change|volume=10|issue=1|pages=e558|doi=10.1002/wcc.558|issn=1757-7780|doi-access=free}} It has been argued that "IAM-based analyses of climate policy create a perception of knowledge and precision that is illusory, and can fool policy-makers into thinking that the forecasts the models generate have some kind of scientific legitimacy".{{cite journal|last1=Pindyck|first1=Robert S.|year=2017|title=The Use and Misuse of Models for Climate Policy|journal=Review of Environmental Economics and Policy|volume=11|issue=1|pages=100–114|doi=10.1093/reep/rew012|doi-access=free|hdl=1721.1/120585|hdl-access=free}} Still, it has been argued that attempting to calculate the social cost of carbon is useful to gain insight into the effect of certain processes on climate impacts, as well as to better understand one of the determinants international cooperation in the governance of climate agreements.

Integrated assessment models have not been used solely to assess environmental or climate change-related fields. They have also been used to analyze patterns of conflict, the Sustainable Development Goals,{{cite journal |last1=Moyer |first1=Jonathan |last2=Hedden |first2=Steve |title=Are we on the right path to achieve the sustainable development goals? |journal=World Development |date=2020 |volume=127 |page=104749 |doi=10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.104749 |doi-access=free }} trends across issue area in Africa,{{cite book |last1=Moyer |first1=Jonathan |last2=Bohl |first2=David |last3=Hanna |first3=Taylor |last4=Mayaki |first4=Ibrahim |last5=Bwalya |first5=Martin |title=Africa's path to 2063: choice in the face of great transformation |date=2019 |publisher=African Union Development Agency |location=Midrand, South Africa |url=https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/drupalwebsitepardee/pardee/public/Africas_path_to_2063-en.pdf}} and food security.{{cite book |last1=Hedden |first1=Steve |last2=Rafa |first2=Mickey |last3=Moyer |first3=Jonathan |title=Achieving Food Security in Uganda |date=August 2018 |url=https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/drupalwebsitepardee/pardee/public/Pardee_Food_Security_report_v1.pdf}}

All numerical models have shortcomings. Integrated Assessment Models for climate change, in particular, have been severely criticized for problematic assumptions that led to greatly overestimating the cost/benefit ratio for mitigating climate change while relying on economic models inappropriate to the problem.{{cite journal |last1=Ackerman |first1=Frank |display-authors=et al. |title=Limitations of integrated assessment models of climate change |journal=Climatic Change |date=2009 |volume=95 |issue=3–4 |pages=297–315 |doi=10.1007/s10584-009-9570-x|doi-access=free |bibcode=2009ClCh...95..297A }} In 2021, the integrated assessment modeling community examined gaps in what was termed the "possibility space" and how these might best be consolidated and addressed.

{{cite journal

| last1 = Keppo | first1 = Ilkka Johannes

| last2 = Butnar | first2 = I

| last3 = Bauer | first3 = N

| last4 = Caspani | first4 = M

| last5 = Edelenbosch | first5 = O

| last6 = Emmerling | first6 = J

| last7 = Fragkos | first7 = P

| last8 = Guivarch | first8 = C

| last9 = Harmsen | first9 = M

| last10 = Lefèvre | first10 = J

| last11 = Le Gallic | first11 = T

| last12 = Leimbach | first12 = M

| last13 = McDowall | first13 = W

| last14 = Mercure | first14 = J-F

| last15 = Schaeffer | first15 = R

| last16 = Trutnevyte | first16 = E

| last17 = Wagner | first17 = F

| title = Exploring the possibility space: taking stock of the diverse capabilities and gaps in integrated assessment models

| date = April 2021

| journal = Environmental Research Letters

| volume = 16

| issue = 5

| pages = 053006

| doi = 10.1088/1748-9326/abe5d8

| bibcode = 2021ERL....16e3006K

| issn = 1748-9326

| doi-access = free

| hdl = 10871/127148

| hdl-access = free

}} {{open access}}

In an October{{nbsp}}2021 working paper, Nicholas Stern argues that existing IAMs are inherently unable to capture the economic realities of the climate crisis under its current state of rapid progress.

{{cite book

| last1 = Stern | first1 = Nicholas

| title = A time for action on climate change and a time for change in economics — Working paper 370

| date = 26 October 2021

| publisher = Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment

| location = London, United Kingdom

| issn = 2515-5717

| url = https://www.lse.ac.uk/granthaminstitute/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/working-paper-370-Stern.pdf

| access-date = 2021-10-26

}}

{{rp|§6.2}}

Models undertaking optimisation methodologies have received numerous different critiques, a prominent one however, draws on the ideas of dynamical systems theory which understands systems as changing with no deterministic pathway or end-state.

{{cite book

| last1 = Sharpe

| first1 = Simon

| title = Five Times Faster: Rethinking the Science, Economics, and Diplomacy of Climate Change

| date = 2023

| publisher = Cambridge University Press

| url = https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/five-times-faster/F10C95E61C3AB39EBC3BC7C8F4B1853F

| access-date = 2024-08-05

}}

This implies a very large, or even infinite, number of possible states of the system in the future with aspects and dynamics that cannot be known to observers of the current state of the system.

This type of uncertainty around future states of an evolutionary system has been referred to as ‘radical’ or ‘fundamental’ uncertainty.

{{cite book

| last1 = King| first1 = Mervyn

| last2 = Kay| first2= John

| title = Radical Uncertainty: Decision-making for an unknowable future

| date = 2020

| publisher = Little, Brown Book Group

| isbn = 978-1-4087-1258-0

| url = https://books.google.com/books?id=YiScDwAAQBAJ

| access-date = 2024-08-05

}}

This has led some researchers to call for more work on the broader array of possible futures and calling for modelling research on those alternative scenarios that have yet to receive substantial attention, for example post-growth scenarios. {{cite journal |last1=Hickel |first1=J

| last2= Kallis | first2 = G

|display-authors=et al. |title= Urgent need for post-growth climate mitigation scenarios|

journal= Nature Energy |date=2021|volume=6 |issue=8

|pages=766–768 |doi=10.1038/s41560-021-00884-9|bibcode=2021NatEn...6..766H

}}

{{notelist}}

{{reflist|30em}}

• [https://www.tias-web.info/ Integrated Assessment Society]
• [http://journals.sfu.ca/int_assess/index.php/iaj Integrated Assessment Journal]

{{Energy modeling}}

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